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THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 07:21:24

dohboi wrote:Was it a derecho (straight-line wind storm), by any chance?


Just a really strong thunderstorm frontal boundary, not up to Derecho levels but high winds with variable direction.
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 14:38:40

Increased tornadic activity is indeed the among the hardest to connect conclusively to gw of the various weather extremes. But that is exactly why it is is so concerning that latest research does suggest just such a shift.

Of course, if one wants to just accept the most comforting data, that, I guess, is one's own choice.


and what research would that be please? I indicated a very recent publication that pointed out there has not been any increase in tornado activity, indeed the opposite seems to have been the case.

One may not accept the most comforting data but one should always tend towards that which is published and holds water under interrogation.
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 14:57:03

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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 18:22:24

Tornado strength, frequency, linked to climate change

New research by a Florida State University geography professor shows that climate change may be playing a key role in the strength and frequency of tornadoes hitting the United States.

Published Wednesday in the journal Climate Dynamics, Professor James Elsner writes that though tornadoes are forming fewer days per year, they are forming at a greater density and strength than ever before. So, for example, instead of one or two forming on a given day in an area, there might be three or four occurring.

"We may be less threatened by tornadoes on a day-to-day basis, but when they do come, they come like there's no tomorrow," Elsner said.

Elsner, an expert in climate and weather trends, said in the past, many researchers dismissed the impact of climate change on tornadoes because there was no distinct pattern in the number of tornado days per year. In 1971, there were 187 tornado days, but in 2013 there were only 79 days with tornadoes.

But a deeper dive into the data showed more severity in the types of storms and that more were happening on a given day than in previous years.

"I think it's important for forecasters and the public to know this," Elsner said. "It's a matter of making sure the public is aware that if there is a higher risk of a storm, there may actually be multiple storms in a day."


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Severety of Tornado Outbreaks Increasing

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 11 Mar 2016, 07:56:35

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronom ... _time.html

Tornadoes are one area where the science has been less certain wrt connections to GW. The added heat and humidity associated with GW give them more power to draw on, but increased wind sheer makes it more likely that they will be cut off before many fully develop. One trend that had already been observed was more 'off season' tornadoes.

But now apparently a trend has been observed, for the first time that I have heard, of increasing numbers of tornadoes during outbreaks. So it seems like a significant advance in the science, worthy of its own thread. We are also heading into prime tornado season, so this can be a place to keep track of those.

From the article:

The study looked at tornadoes from 1954 to 2014, applying some statistical analysis to the number and strength of each. What they found is interesting, and a little bit non-intuitive, and also may have implications for the effects of climate change.

First off, they found that the total number of outbreaks per year is fairly steady across the date range, at roughly 20 per year (with lots of fluctuations year to year). The total number of individual tornadoes is also steady, roughly 500 per year (again, with lots of variation).

But that’s not the whole story. The researchers looked at the outbreaks themselves, and found that the number of tornadoes that occur in outbreaks is increasing. It’s going up by about 0.66 percent per year, from about 10 per outbreak in the 1950s to 15 today. That rise is statistically significant (that is, very unlikely to be from random chance).
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Re: Severety of Tornado Outbreaks Increasing

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 11 Mar 2016, 08:25:03

I question their observation period for one simple reason, well two but they are inter related. In the 1950's through the 1980's Tornado outbreaks were only accepted when "qualified observers" made the report. If you were Joe6P farmer and you saw a tornado go across your field someone who had "proper training" had to also see it for it to be considered a verified tornado unless it damaged structures in an undeniable way. Starting in the 1980's weather radar processing ability became sophisticated enough to start identifying funnel cloud wind forces even if nobody on the ground or in the air spotted the funnel. In the last few years the local TV weather stations all race to announce these ASAP to limit loss of life and to keep people from driving right into them in storms where visibility is limited.

Both of these effects would tend to concentrate tornado reports as time moves forward, the population now is substantially greater than it was in 1954 meaning there are more "qualified observers" around now, and the sophisticated weather radar is spotting even more storm funnels than they were even a decade ago as the on demand computing power has gotten so much better.
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Re: Severety of Tornado Outbreaks Increasing

Unread postby eugene » Fri 11 Mar 2016, 10:12:57

Sorry but I find it amusing the ongoing "I don't believe it" chatter of climate change. I have visions of a hot house earth with terrific storms and a lone denier standing there saying "I don't believe it". It's pure physics but I guess one can deny physic is true as well. The climate is warming, high altitude winds are changing, more moisture is retained by the warmer air, the Arctic is thawing and the list is long but people who ignore reality remain. Reality doesn't give a shit if you believe it or not, reality just presses on.
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Re: Severety of Tornado Outbreaks Increasing

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 11 Mar 2016, 12:30:08

T, it would be pretty easy to either get the original report or even to contact the researchers to ask if they controlled for the factors you present. This linked article says the data came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

: "http://newswire.rockefeller.edu/2016/03/04/new-findings-suggest-severe-tornado-outbreaks-are-increasingly-common/

I can't quite see, though, how your point about reporting changes would have affected the data in quite the way they appear: no change in total numbers of tornadoes, but more tornadoes in particular outbreaks.

But maybe I'm missing something? (Haven't had my Java yet this morning! :) )
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 11:54:02

Lots of pictures of the devastation at link below quote.

At least 19 people have died over the last 48 hours due to tornadoes, as a violent system of storms made its way across the South from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle and parts of Alabama and Georgia.

At least 15 people died and around two dozen were injured in Georgia from tornadoes early Sunday morning, following four tornado-related deaths that occurred in Mississippi on Saturday morning.

According to the Georgia Emergency Management Agency, four people died in Dougherty County near Albany, seven in Cook County near Adel, and two people died in both Berrien and Brooks counties.

After storms ripped through the region overnight, more tornado watches were issued today for the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama, and the Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency has issued a state of emergency for the seven south central Georgia counties impacted by the storm.

"The National Weather Service predicts a third wave of severe weather today, which may reach as far north as metro Atlanta. I urge all Georgians to exercise caution and vigilance in order to remain safe and prevent further loss of life or injuries," Nathan Deal, the governor of Georgia, said in a statement.

President Trump expressed condolences to the people of Georgia affected by the tornadoes.

"I want to start off by telling you I just spoke with Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia, great state, great people," Trump said. "Florida affected, Alabama affected by the tornadoes, and just expressed our sincere condolences for the lives taken."

Trump added that the tornadoes "were vicious and powerful and strong," and said that people suffered as a result of them.

"So we'll be helping out the state of Georgia," Trump added.

Images on social media showed telephone poles cracked in half. Entire streets looked as if they had been torn apart by the storms.

"There are houses just demolished," Norma Ford, a resident of Albany, Georgia, who rushed out with other relatives Sunday evening after hearing a reported twister had overturned her nephew's mobile home, told the Associated Press.

Ford told the AP that downed trees and powerlines blocked roads. Many in the region went without power overnight.

Michael Miller, coroner in Brooks County, Georgia, told ABC News that two deaths were confirmed in his county with five more fatalities in Cook County and four more in nearby Berrien County.

At least 23 other people in the state are injured.

In the area of Hattiesburg, Mississippi, where at least four people died, a large tornado leveled homes and buildings, trapping residents in their homes, authorities said.

Further north in Choctaw County, Mississippi, on Saturday at least four people were injured and at least 20 homes damaged from a possible tornado, according to the National Weather Service.

ABC News' David Caplan, Brendan Rand and Matt Foster contributed to this report.


http://abcnews.go.com/US/dead-georgia-t ... d=44965022
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby baha » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 12:34:02

Have you ever heard of people dying from tornadoes in January? It's headed my way tonight. What happens next summer?
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby GHung » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 13:19:43

baha wrote:Have you ever heard of people dying from tornadoes in January? It's headed my way tonight. What happens next summer?


January tornadoes aren't unheard of in Georgia, and I'm sure some have been deadly:

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/to ... anuary/map

Hover pointer over the little tornadoes to see dates. More rare in NC:

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/to ... anuary/map
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 17:13:57

Somehow this does not seem normal
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/0efc3ec5-1 ... arent.html

At least 18 die amid apparent winter tornadoes, other storms in South
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 13:22:10

And...where is tRump?
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 14:26:25

dohboi wrote:And...where is tRump?


Doing his job in D.C. instead of flying Air Force One down to shoot photo ops for the adoring media who wish him wonderful success?
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 15:54:53

Oh, really. It took him a while to even acknowledge that this tragedy was going on...too busy whining about reported crowd sizes, I guess.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/1/24 ... ng-Already

FEMA Under Trump Fails To Help After Tornados Devastate S.E. The Incompetence Is Showing Already.
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby clif » Thu 26 Jan 2017, 10:55:47

Officials Beg Trump to Send Help After Storms Kill 20 Across South

Desperate officials pleaded with President Donald Trump to send federal assistance Monday after at least 20 people were killed by storms and tornadoes that caused devastation authorities likened to the impact of a nuclear blast.

Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant said he had dispatched a letter to Trump pleading for help after four people were killed in his state. He said more 1,000 homes were damaged in Hattiesburg and surrounding Forrest County alone — 239 of which were obliterated.

In Dougherty County, Georgia, where four people were killed, county commission Chairman Chris Cohilas said Monday that he has been "begging FEMA for boots on the ground," referring to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

"I'm asking President Trump to cut through the red tape and get people on the damned ground here," he said.

In addition to the 19 people confirmed to have died in central and south Georgia and in Mississippi, a 20th person was confirmed Monday to have been killed in northern Florida over the weekend.Officials Beg Trump to Send Help After Storms Kill 20 Across South

Desperate officials pleaded with President Donald Trump to send federal assistance Monday after at least 20 people were killed by storms and tornadoes that caused devastation authorities likened to the impact of a nuclear blast.

Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant said he had dispatched a letter to Trump pleading for help after four people were killed in his state. He said more 1,000 homes were damaged in Hattiesburg and surrounding Forrest County alone — 239 of which were obliterated.

In Dougherty County, Georgia, where four people were killed, county commission Chairman Chris Cohilas said Monday that he has been "begging FEMA for boots on the ground," referring to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

"I'm asking President Trump to cut through the red tape and get people on the damned ground here," he said.

In addition to the 19 people confirmed to have died in central and south Georgia and in Mississippi, a 20th person was confirmed Monday to have been killed in northern Florida over the weekend.


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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 25 Oct 2017, 04:15:05

The increase in billion-dollar disasters is due, in part, to the increase in population and material weather over the last several decades. NCEI notes many population centers exist in vulnerable areas where "building codes are often insufficient in reducing damage from extreme events." The increasing frequency of some types of extreme weather due to climate change is also a factor, according to the report from NCEI.

Since 1980, there have been 218 weather and climate disasters in the U.S. that have reached at least $1 billion in damage or cost. The total cost of these 218 events exceeds $1.2 trillion. This cost, however, does not include Harvey, Irma and Maria.

Fifteen billion-dollar disasters have occurred this year in the U.S. through September.

This number will likely rise through the end of the year and might set a record.

Tornado and severe thunderstorm events have made up the largest share and have added seven billion-dollar weather disasters to the list.


2017 Weather Disasters
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Oct 2017, 07:25:33

As I note that elsewhere MunichRE and Lloyd’s Are both noting loss of profits and a very bad year for the insurance industry at large.
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 25 Oct 2017, 14:33:23

At some point these not-so-entirely-natural disasters will break the insurance system as well as governments (see the $350 b conservative estimate of recent gw-related costs for US).

Then no one (except the super-rich, of course) will have any recourse after one of these mega-disasters hit, as hit they will, ever harder, and ever more frequently and furiously.

Leaving the large majority of us...twisting in the wind...
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Aug 2018, 11:03:26

MUNCIE, Ind. (WTHR) — The Muncie Community School Board has authorized emergency repairs to the Fieldhouse.

A severe thunderstorm on November 5 ripped a hole in the roof of the Fieldhouse and ruptured water pipes, turning the bleachers into a waterfall and flooding the hardwood basketball floor.

On Tuesday, the board approved getting bids to make repairs.

The money to do it will come from insurance. The district already received $900,000 and will get another $340,000 once repair work begins.

The plan is to present bids to the board at an August 28 meeting.

These repairs will only cover damage from the storm and not include fixing other issues that exist at the fieldhouse.


LINK
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