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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 12:52:55

onlooker wrote:Ibon, the Corporations are currently making too much profit to willingly change. And since the Govt aids and abets the corporations, nothing much changes. They afterall are prime movers of society. But I do expect big changes to happen once peak oil really bites.


The final nail on the coffin are voters who seem to have permanently bought into the illusion of trickle-down economics and deregulation.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 13:16:36

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:Ibon, the Corporations are currently making too much profit to willingly change. And since the Govt aids and abets the corporations, nothing much changes. They afterall are prime movers of society. But I do expect big changes to happen once peak oil really bites.


The final nail on the coffin are voters who seem to have permanently bought into the illusion of trickle-down economics and deregulation.

Yes. Nothing and no one seems willing or able to change the economic panorama. But that goes for many other things as well. Again, Ibon had that great insight that change will come when circumstances force it. Only then
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 13:23:49

onlooker wrote:Ibon, the Corporations are currently making too much profit to willingly change. And since the Govt aids and abets the corporations, nothing much changes. They afterall are prime movers of society. But I do expect big changes to happen once peak oil really bites.

With the outlook for massive global despoits of oil available for fracking (i.e., the myth that all we have is the Permian to rely on globally is false), don't hold your breath for the "peak oil biting" meme to be a big deal anytime soon.

Similar pattern re peaker claims since the 70's -- just different widespread application of technology.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 14:13:15

And further technological breakthroughs to better locate and extract oil are unlikely to help either. That's because technology uses energy rather than creates it. It won't change the energy equation.


Outcast, the technology you love to reference is utilizing energy to get at those additional deposits. Fracking is expending energy, hard to access reserves requires more energy to access. You can get them but at additional energy cost.
And check out other challenges existing now
" The biggest debt bubble in history
A disastrous experiment with globalisation
The massaging of data to the point where economic trends are obscured
The approach of an energy-returns cliff edge"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgrube ... c6a93268d9
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 01:04:25

onlooker wrote:
And further technological breakthroughs to better locate and extract oil are unlikely to help either. That's because technology uses energy rather than creates it. It won't change the energy equation.


Outcast, the technology you love to reference is utilizing energy to get at those additional deposits. Fracking is expending energy, hard to access reserves requires more energy to access. You can get them but at additional energy cost.
And check out other challenges existing now
" The biggest debt bubble in history
A disastrous experiment with globalisation
The massaging of data to the point where economic trends are obscured
The approach of an energy-returns cliff edge"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgrube ... c6a93268d9


Challenges existing now? That article is from half a decade in the past. You are such a useless cherry-picker. Do you have any notion of what constitutes topical information and what doesn't?

What's next? Wanna link to an old Oil Drum article from a dozen years ago? Maybe this oldie but goodie from the decade that Captain Marvel is exploiting for nostalgia?

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm
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"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 06:07:01

Asg, these set of problems have not gone away. They are only getting worse and approaching their denouement. You guys just sit back and say well the world is not going to hell, so everything is okay. You are not acknowledging the trajectory and building stresses. So, you and others may call my links old or useless, but that is your useless ignorant opinions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 06:18:32

Excellent use of the word denouement although your conclusions are seriously jacked up.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 07:35:38

Exactly how are they “jacked up”?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 08:09:12

Newfie wrote:Exactly how are they “jacked up”?


Onlooker posts in every thread that doom is imminent, any day now, DOOM!. None of those predictions are going to come true in his lifetime. But it costs him nothing to make flawed predictions so he, along with other fast crash doomers, will continue to make them.

I see no evidence of doom in the near future, as defined as in the next 40 years, on the horizon.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 08:19:20

Does doom happen when the Dr. tells you “Sir, you have stage 4 lung cancer. Statistics say you have 6 more months of relative comfort, but you will surely be dead within 28 months.” Or does doom occur when you draw your last breath?

You have a difference of opinion about the future is all. And I’m not even sure how different that is. You have spent a fair amount of time, effort, and money on prepping for some upcoming event. Apparently an event where you expect some level of civil war where you find a sufficient likelyhood that you have armed yourself. In my book that’s a rather doomerish outlook, effectively moreso than mine.

Perhaps it’s all a point of view.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 08:32:15

There is a certain degree of living a split reality in regards to ones perspective of upcoming external calamities. If I would have actually acted on my beliefs 15 years ago I would not have gotten involved in a coastal eco villa project in Thailand, nor would I have bought South Florida properties and nor would I have exposed myself to the discretionary spending of tourism here in Panama. Instabilities hit discretionary spending first and the threat of sea level rise one would think would have effected coastal real estate. All the investments have proven profitable, our high season this year will break records, there is nothing on the horizon that I see that will slow down the visitor count. The unseasonable dry spell here has broken, rains have come, the cloud forest is healthy, jaguars and tapirs and keystone species are still here, etc. etc.

I look at Ibon in the 3rd person because he is an internet forum identity that indulges in the ecological calamities and consequences that are up and coming. Often with quite misanthropic points of view.

The real organic me is a friendly host serving guests, excited about sharing nature with others. I almost never talk about ecological doom with guests unless they bring up the topic, and even then I refrain from giving them the full Ibon.......

Am I the only one split here?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 08:48:44

Newfie wrote:Does doom happen when the Dr. tells you “Sir, you have stage 4 lung cancer. Statistics say you have 6 more months of relative comfort, but you will surely be dead within 28 months.” Or does doom occur when you draw your last breath?

You have a difference of opinion about the future is all. And I’m not even sure how different that is. You have spent a fair amount of time, effort, and money on prepping for some upcoming event. Apparently an event where you expect some level of civil war where you find a sufficient likelyhood that you have armed yourself. In my book that’s a rather doomerish outlook, effectively moreso than mine.

Perhaps it’s all a point of view.


Because political instability is a common thing that has happened throughout history. Empires end, political persuasions change, experiments are made, and people suffer through them. We have fought a war against the British Empire twice and had our own Civil War. That is not the far past as human history goes. So yes, I do prepare for that eventuality. But end of civilization and the death of almost everyone? Unlikely scenario not worth prepping for. Not like you could prep for it anyway.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby derhundistlos » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 07:35:59

Cog wrote: I see no evidence of doom in the near future, as defined as in the next 40 years, on the horizon.


Cog, do you care to make a serious wager on the validity of your opinion? I am willing to place a bet of $1.000 + that you are wrong. First, we need to clearly define the meaning of "doom". The time frame you already specified, although we will not have to wait that long.

We will need to deposit the funds into a bank fiduciary account. I know of a bank trust company that can serve as custodian and final arbiter. Otherwise, it's a waste of time.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 07:41:23

Ibon wrote:There is a certain degree of living a split reality in regards to ones perspective of upcoming external calamities. If I would have actually acted on my beliefs 15 years ago I would not have gotten involved in a coastal eco villa project in Thailand, nor would I have bought South Florida properties and nor would I have exposed myself to the discretionary spending of tourism here in Panama. Instabilities hit discretionary spending first and the threat of sea level rise one would think would have effected coastal real estate. All the investments have proven profitable, our high season this year will break records, there is nothing on the horizon that I see that will slow down the visitor count. The unseasonable dry spell here has broken, rains have come, the cloud forest is healthy, jaguars and tapirs and keystone species are still here, etc. etc.

I look at Ibon in the 3rd person because he is an internet forum identity that indulges in the ecological calamities and consequences that are up and coming. Often with quite misanthropic points of view.

The real organic me is a friendly host serving guests, excited about sharing nature with others. I almost never talk about ecological doom with guests unless they bring up the topic, and even then I refrain from giving them the full Ibon.......

Am I the only one split here?


Hardly. I fell it all the time. Difficult to have a completly consistent POV. Too many contradictory signals and pulls.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 07:44:57

Cog wrote:
Newfie wrote:Does doom happen when the Dr. tells you “Sir, you have stage 4 lung cancer. Statistics say you have 6 more months of relative comfort, but you will surely be dead within 28 months.” Or does doom occur when you draw your last breath?

You have a difference of opinion about the future is all. And I’m not even sure how different that is. You have spent a fair amount of time, effort, and money on prepping for some upcoming event. Apparently an event where you expect some level of civil war where you find a sufficient likelyhood that you have armed yourself. In my book that’s a rather doomerish outlook, effectively moreso than mine.

Perhaps it’s all a point of view.


Because political instability is a common thing that has happened throughout history. Empires end, political persuasions change, experiments are made, and people suffer through them. We have fought a war against the British Empire twice and had our own Civil War. That is not the far past as human history goes. So yes, I do prepare for that eventuality. But end of civilization and the death of almost everyone? Unlikely scenario not worth prepping for. Not like you could prep for it anyway.


You project a very different opinion on your posts.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 08:49:23

I do not buy peak oil doom, climate change doom, or economic doom in the near term. However I do see a serious flirtation with socialism ending in disaster for the USA. That is a sort of doom I suppose and a great deal of violence over that is not out of the question. Depends on whether the electorate can see the danger in proceeding down that path.

Now long term peak oil is going to be a serious issue. But its not now and won't be for quite some time. And climate change. Again, its a long term problem but not in my lifetime.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby derhundistlos » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 09:10:44

Cog wrote: However I do see a serious flirtation with socialism ending in disaster for the USA. That is a sort of doom I suppose and a great deal of violence over that is not out of the question.


Social Security and Medicare are two popular and classic forms of socialism. Thank you Presidents Roosevelt and Johnson. The Republicons have tried for years to undermine both plans; however, Republicon pols. also know the consequences of their elimination would be catastrophic for society and their reelection.

The results of implementing these socialist policies provide an important safety net for our seniors and resulted in anything but "doom" for America.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 09:59:03

Ibon wrote:Am I the only one split here?


That's kind of the norm, really. The public vs. private facade. No doom necessary. The internet allows people to share their private and less pleasant thoughts.
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 11:46:03

Cog wrote:I do not buy peak oil doom, climate change doom, or economic doom in the near term. However I do see a serious flirtation with socialism ending in disaster for the USA. That is a sort of doom I suppose and a great deal of violence over that is not out of the question. Depends on whether the electorate can see the danger in proceeding down that path.

Now long term peak oil is going to be a serious issue. But its not now and won't be for quite some time. And climate change. Again, its a long term problem but not in my lifetime.


Near term =<40 years?

Then we are not that different in expectations. What you see as social/cultural change is see as driven by the over wrought global financial market and I often have said I think that may well be the first shoe to drop.

A difference is l, perhaps, I do seem to feel much more a sense of stewardship of Earth, a desire to leave a better place than I found.

I hear the difference as I’ll stop to pick up a plastic soda bottle you threw out the window.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 13:04:41

The deal is Newfie I'm a low consumer of products. Not because I'm environmentally woke but because I'm cheap. I suppose it works out the same.
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