[copious.abundance]

Anybody who thinks this is all just because of some virus, isn't thinking hard enough. The virus is just an excuse.

Spare me the BS. It's the 12th time that the sun has set on a US economic expansion since 1945. And it ain't got nuttin' to do with peak oil (LTG*).

https://www.nber.org/cycles.html...

???

I have already said in this thread it would be just another recession.

You don't seriously think I've turned into some sort of hard core doomer, now do you?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Skipping the recession. Going straight to a depression.

Of course it is!

And given how prescient all you other claims/calls have been, I certainly believe that.

Maybe not crying "wolf" 10,000 times for little or no reason would stand you in better stead, now that something REAL is actually occurring. Not that you or anyone else could have predicted COVID-19 and the timing.

OTOH, since folks like you have been claiming we've been in a depression or bad recession since 2007, if playing with names amuses you, then as usual, you can say you were "right".

If only concepts like reality and definitions didn't exist.

[GHung]

Skipping the recession. Going straight to a depression.

Of course it is!

And given how prescient all you other claims/calls have been, I certainly believe that.

Maybe not crying "wolf" 10,000 times for little or no reason would stand you in better stead, now that something REAL is actually occurring. Not that you or anyone else could have predicted COVID-19 and the timing.

OTOH, since folks like you have been claiming we've been in a depression or bad recession since 2007, if playing with names amuses you, then as usual, you can say you were "right".

If only concepts like reality and definitions didn't exist.

I've watched for years now; people here pointing out that global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth, much of it unearned. I've watched for years as you've built strawmen around that, conveniently creating a false narrative between being a realist with different opinions or being a "doomer". Damned lame, that. And now a complete lack of admission that some here have been proven right. Reveals a lack of character, that.
Not sure if it's hubris or cowardice. Both, maybe.

[yeahbut]

global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.

It certainly is an interesting thought exercise:
is the system uniquely vulnerable now? what kind of impact would covid-19 have had on the world 50 years ago? Or in 1950? Would it have been thrown into the massive economic tailspin that it has now? I mean, the great depression doesn't seem like a very resilient response to the wall st crash, but is that different? No, I'm asking . I have no idea.

[Pops]

8 people (6 American) own as much wealth as half of humanity.
95% of economic gains went to the top 1% net worth since 2009

Most wealth is intangible, equities based on future earnings, etc. because, well, you can only eat so much caviar and profits must go somewhere.
Imagine if a greater portion of the gains since 09 had gone, oh I don't know, to the people who earned it? Would that wealth have been nothing but the seltzer blowing the market froth we've just seen evaporate?

It might have gone to hookers and blow but a little might have gone to more efficient vehicles or owning a home, or college or debt repayment or school lunch or any of a billion tangible items people might actually use.

But it went into blowing yet another record market bubble.

Don't know if that make this system less stable than it used to be when America was great but it sure makes it less worthwhile for the 99%

[Tanada]

global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.

It certainly is an interesting thought exercise:
is the system uniquely vulnerable now? what kind of impact would covid-19 have had on the world 50 years ago? Or in 1950? Would it have been thrown into the massive economic tailspin that it has now? I mean, the great depression doesn't seem like a very resilient response to the wall st crash, but is that different? No, I'm asking . I have no idea.

Back in 1950 Americans along with everyone else were subject to a whole suite of diseases we now routinely immunize against, plus Smallpox. Mumps, Measles, Rubella, Scarlet Fever, Polio... Combined they added up to 30% of children falling seriously ill before adulthood and 20% of children dying before reaching the age of 18. Quarantines of infected homes or communities was a routine health measure and people did not freak out and sell their stock when an illness swept the world.

Even in the 1970's a little less than 50 years ago the first time Swine Flu swept the world people were used to the idea that diseases are part of life and the economy chugged along little changed.

Today the majority of Americans alive today have no memory of epidemic illnesses being a real life threatening part of existence and they do not yet have the mental understanding of how to deal with the idea that life is more fragile than humans wish it to be. On top of that the Media from far left to far right has been sensationalizing every moment of the Covid-19 epidemic beyond and sense of reason by for example telling people how many have been infected and how many have died but failing to emphasize how many of the infected have fully recovered and can leave quarantine.

While these factors can certainly cause panic selling and the consequences of it in the larger picture humans are more able to deal with quarantine now that they were in 1950 by a very large margin. Telecommuting for white collar workers mean that while a large part of the economy will be taking a big hit the management to deal with issues as they arise is still able to make crucial decisions in a timely manner. It is up to that white collar strata of society to keep things working as best as possible. So long as their own self interest keeps them on the job the rest of us should make it through alive and able to recover in 4-6 months.

[yeahbut]

Pops, Tanada- that is why I still lurk around this site. Some of the smartest people I know, with fascinating insights and perspectives, are here. Goodnight and good luck PO folks.

[GHung]

global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.

It certainly is an interesting thought exercise:
is the system uniquely vulnerable now? what kind of impact would covid-19 have had on the world 50 years ago? Or in 1950? Would it have been thrown into the massive economic tailspin that it has now? I mean, the great depression doesn't seem like a very resilient response to the wall st crash, but is that different? No, I'm asking . I have no idea.

Some of the vulnerabilities are:
... Humans are far more mobile, globally, than they were in the '30s
... Supply chains are JIT (just in time) and are, again, more global. Most products are not produced locally and are not warehoused/stockpiled for the most part.
... Food chains are also very long, intercontinental in many instances. The onions in my stew last night are from Peru. I'm in North Carolina.
... Many products these days are not built to last. Planned obsolescence is a thing now.
... There are far more humans now, making more demands on systems. Per capita energy and resource consumption is much higher. Economies/jobs/infrastructures get locked into those levels of production/consumption.
... Systems are far more complex, optimized. A lot of things have to go right for them to perform.
... Financial and technical cross-contagion is more of a thing these days, IMO.

I could go on, and folks are free to add to the list. I have to go buy more toilet paper

[yeahbut]

Some of the vulnerabilities are:
... Humans are far more mobile, globally, than they were in the '30s
... Supply chains are JIT (just in time) and are, again, more global. Most products are not produced locally and are not warehoused/stockpiled for the most part.
... Food chains are also very long, intercontinental in many instances. The onions in my stew last night are from Peru. I'm in North Carolina.
... Many products these days are not built to last. Planned obsolescence is a thing now.
... There are far more humans now, making more demands on systems. Per capita energy and resource consumption is much higher. Economies/jobs/infrastructures get locked into those levels of production/consumption.
... Systems are far more complex, optimized. A lot of things have to go right for them to perform.
... Financial and technical cross-contagion is more of a thing these days, IMO.

Yes the vulnerablility of complexity is real, and still to be genuinely tested.
Re food, I guess there aren't many countries left that could feed themselves if they had to. In NZ, which is a real food bowl, we couldn't these days because we specialise so intensively for export markets, mainly dairy products. Once, we had a very wide range of horticultural and agricultural crops including substantial wheat production, but farmers went where the money was (of course, and who can blame them?). We wouldn't have any bread if we got cut off, but we sure could stuff ourselves with 'milk solids'...

I could go on, and folks are free to add to the list. I have to go buy more toilet paper

[marmico]

The time....has arrived. The US economy has troughed according to the FRB New York Weekly Economic Index. The 12th business cycle recovery since 1945 has begun.



https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/pol ... omic-index
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary ... /sr920.pdf

[C8]

8 people (6 American) own as much wealth as half of humanity.
95% of economic gains went to the top 1% net worth since 2009

Most wealth is intangible, equities based on future earnings, etc. because, well, you can only eat so much caviar and profits must go somewhere.
Imagine if a greater portion of the gains since 09 had gone, oh I don't know, to the people who earned it? Would that wealth have been nothing but the seltzer blowing the market froth we've just seen evaporate?

It might have gone to hookers and blow but a little might have gone to more efficient vehicles or owning a home, or college or debt repayment or school lunch or any of a billion tangible items people might actually use.

But it went into blowing yet another record market bubble.

Don't know if that make this system less stable than it used to be when America was great but it sure makes it less worthwhile for the 99%

This is going to lead to something, I don't know what, but something. If times get really rough its going to be hard to ignore the concentrated wealth. Socialism is very, very ripe- it just lacks a charismatic candidate. Taxing the rich hard is going to be someone's bread and butter ticket to the top.

[marmico]

NBER marks the quarterly business cycle peak at Q42019 and monthly peak at February 2020.

https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html

[copious.abundance]

You beat me to it. It is now official.

Am I good, or what?

[Outcast_Searcher]

You beat me to it. It is now official.

Am I good, or what?

You didn't predict COVID-19 any more than the various doomers around here who project perpetual economic disaster, and want to now claim they were "right", re the recession.

[marmico]

Am I good, or what?

ROTFLMFAO.

I called the peak on March 16, 2020 and the trough on May 22, 2020. You have been bloviating and blathering since December, 2018.

Am I good, or what?

[Armageddon]

The time has definitely arrived.....on all fronts

[Outcast_Searcher]

Am I good, or what?

ROTFLMFAO.

I called the peak on March 16, 2020 and the trough on May 22, 2020. You have been bloviating and blathering since December, 2018.

Am I good, or what?

Yup. Copious is embarrassing himself in 2020. And like the perma-doomers, almost certainly won't admit. What a way to blow up a decent track record.

[copious.abundance]

How could I be embarrassing myself when I was right?

And BTW it's no longer 2020.

[Outcast_Searcher]

How could I be embarrassing myself when I was right?

And BTW it's no longer 2020.

You weren't right about anything. A pandemic brought the economy down due to lockdowns. Nothing fundamentally bad happened to the economy, like a normal recession. General fear and lack of ability to legally and safely go out, unlike anything that had happened in a century happened.

And once the bottom was hit in the spring, the US economy has done REMARKABLY well, given the drag from partial lockdowns and much less activity re travel, eating out, sports, shows, and on and on -- given how poorly the US handled the pandemic compared to much of the first world.

And yeah, it's now 2021. As though that changes anything of substance re what happened in 2020.

You were wrong this time. Your track record is fantastic compared to virtually all the doomers. What's wrong with admitting you were wrong once, and having some credibility?

Or are you now going to claim you predicted the pandemic, and point out the posts where you unambiguously did that?

[copious.abundance]

Am I good, or what?

ROTFLMFAO.

I called the peak on March 16, 2020 and the trough on May 22, 2020. You have been bloviating and blathering since December, 2018.

Am I good, or what?

Did you even read post #1 in this thread? It appears you didn't.

I didn't even state a specific date. I just said the sun was setting. The recession arrived 14 months after I started this thread, which is pretty good.

BTW, yes we MIGHT already be out of the recession, but we'll have to wait for the NBER to make a pronouncement.