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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 10:50:39

Seniors can generally avoid having their kids go through probate by using pay on death accounts and joint ownership of real property. My daughter will be able to avoid probate entirely.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 11:04:23

Think I need to schedule a call with my broker to look at rebalancing my portfolio. There will be some buying opportunities. I’m just not sure what they will be. Cruise lines are down 60% to 80%, that’s a bunch. But some may not survive and a lot of their customers are the worst hit demographic. So I’m not sure if that market.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 16:02:25

PONZI SCHEME. Surely, you know how that works. The Markets were being inflated by this easy money way way beyond any realistic levels and that the Corona finally burst the bubble does NOT in any way void this dynamic. This sell off collapse is investors conceding that everthing was artificially manipulated to these incredibly high levels. So, no we are not all stupid


jesus wept....it is exactly what we witnessed and what each and every analyst and economist interviewed on all of the business networks pointed out. The virus will have a direct impact on the economy. Airlines will see a drop in revenue, in person shopping, restaurants etc. The fall was based on the investment community repricing companies based on what might happen (and of course no one really has any idea how bad it could get). The prices kept falling because panic set in as you can see from the VIX which was over 70 on Thursday and the fact that rather than Treasuries decreasing as the stock market falls (safe haven) they actually increased which means investors were selling everything. This is exactly what happens when a market falls this quickly. Those who have margin calls waiting in the wings will sell everything they can no matter how good the underlying business is, it isn't just the risky companies that get turfed but everything. If you paid attention to what was going on throughout the week those shares which were the real stars as the market kept rising (and for good reason) were the hardest hit and took the greatest fall regardless of what business sector they were in. There is lots of liquidity in the market and the FED has insured that is the case. The market is being driven by only two factors right now, uncertainty about the virus impact on economies and especially the North American economy and the fall in oil price which is a bit difficult to calculate in the equation given on the one hand lower gasoline prices favor consumers (who have been driving the economy) whereas oil companies closing will result in significant unemployment irrespective of the virus impacts.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 17:31:26

Stock market shutdown, martial law or BAU ?

https://www.activistpost.com/2020/03/ne ... l-law.html
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 23:01:41

onlooker wrote:Stock market shutdown, martial law or BAU ?

https://www.activistpost.com/2020/03/ne ... l-law.html


More appeals to dubious authorities.

Image

Note, your article cites Gerald Celente, aka Doctor Doom, who has been running around saying the end is nigh even when Art Bell was still alive.

Those who hold gold and cash will be the real winners


...and...here's your conflict of interest:

Mike Gleason is a Director with Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals dealer...


Onlooker, you simply are incapable of vetting sources, only cherry-picking.

This is a glorified AD.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 23:42:41

The virus impact is going to get much worse in the US. Infection numbers are increasing exponentially, doubling ever 6-8 days.

Most likely this will tend to drive the market even lower.....maybe a lot lower.

I think there may well be another big leg down in stocks, and I'm going to wait a bit before buying in.

Cheers!
Last edited by Plantagenet on Sat 14 Mar 2020, 23:45:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 23:44:59

Newfie wrote:Think I need to schedule a call with my broker to look at rebalancing my portfolio. There will be some buying opportunities. I’m just not sure what they will be. Cruise lines are down 60% to 80%, that’s a bunch. But some may not survive and a lot of their customers are the worst hit demographic. So I’m not sure if that market.

FWIW, basic, solid asset allocation makes a HUGE difference over time, and is a hell of a lot safer than trying to pick specific winners, ESPECIALLY when the system is under a lot of stress, like it could be with COVID-19 for awhile.

So if you desire to be, for example, 50% stocks and 50% safer stuff like cash and short term bonds, and the market declines by half, then a couple things to note:

1). With the market down half, you'd only be down roughly 25%, if you were in "the market", via broad indexes like the S&P 500, etc.

2). To get back to 50/50, you'd double the number of stocks you have. So then if the market recovered over time, you'd end up with twice your former stock holdings, and 2/3rds of your cash (ignoring interest, since rates are so low).

Obviously that's way oversimplified with only 2 asset classes, but that's the basic idea.

So that's one way to go. That's more or less what I did in 2008/2009, though I didn't wait for the bottom to buy (though kept on buying periodically, including at the bottom). But it was easy buying things like the S&P 500 with a yield of over 4%, even as wild as things were then. With that, I was willing to wait 5 or 10 years for a full recovery. With stock X, that would have been too much risk, given what was going on.

Oh, and as Plant just mentioned -- you SURE don't need to buy all at once. The lower the market goes, the better the deals (and yield) on solid broad indexes. Whatever the news from day to day and week to week, I'd be truly amazed if the volatility suddenly just faded away.

...

And I have NO idea what the markets will do in the short run, and this is NOT "investment advice", just an idea to nibble on.

I am rather confident that this too will pass, and over 2 or 3 decades, that markets will continue to grow. I suspect we have much worse things we'll see as the new normal as AGW proceeds, though they may not hit as suddenly. For one thing, with the warming temperature, we could see more frequent pandemics, just like flood planes are changing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 23:53:55

Cog wrote:Seniors can generally avoid having their kids go through probate by using pay on death accounts and joint ownership of real property. My daughter will be able to avoid probate entirely.

Transfer on Death accounts is what I've got planned for the bulk of my estate assets (investments in various funds). I have no kids, so it's very simple to just assign equal parts, for example, to my sister and her kids.

When I informally asked an estate attorney about that when dealing with my parents' estate, since I have no kids she said that sounded like a reasonable approach.

I'll let the house and its contents and a decent amount of cash go through probate to prevent any mess and make sure all the bills re final expenses, etc. get paid without bothering anyone, but that way at least my heirs get the vast majority with little wait, and no muss or fuss.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 23:58:38

Outcast_Searcher wrote:...........

I am rather confident that this too will pass, and over 2 or 3 decades, that markets will continue to grow. I suspect we have much worse things we'll see as the new normal as AGW proceeds, though they may not hit as suddenly. For one thing, with the warming temperature, we could see more frequent pandemics, just like flood planes are changing.


So limits to growth isn't a thing, eh?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 11:40:31

Everyone has a different timetable for when LTG will bite.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Pops » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 13:01:29

asg70 wrote:Everyone has a different timetable for when LTG will bite.

Maybe all 15 people on this site, but generally the concept is unknown to the vast majority.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 16:28:16

Plantagenet wrote:The virus impact is going to get much worse in the US. Infection numbers are increasing exponentially, doubling ever 6-8 days.

Most likely this will tend to drive the market even lower.....maybe a lot lower.

I think there may well be another big leg down in stocks, and I'm going to wait a bit before buying in.

Cheers!




Skipping the recession. Going straight to a depression.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 17:27:19

With the following announcement, I am pretty sure we can now say with a high degree of certainty, that the time has officially arrived.

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program
The Federal Reserve, saying “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States,” cut interest rates to near-zero on Sunday and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program to shelter the economy from the effects of the virus.

Facing highly disrupted financial markets, the Fed also slashed the rate of emergency lending at the discount window for banks by 125 bps to 0.25%, and lengthened the term of loans to 90 days.

The new fed funds rate, used as a benchmark both for short-term lending for financial institutions and as a peg to many consume rates, will now be targeted at 0%-0.25%.

The Fed also cut reserve requirement ratios for thousands of banks to zero. In addition, in a global coordinated move by centrals banks, the Fed said the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank took action to enhance dollar liquidity around the world through existing dollar swap arrangements.

Anybody who thinks this is all just because of some virus, isn't thinking hard enough. The virus is just an excuse.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 18:34:27

copious.abundance wrote:With the following announcement, I am pretty sure we can now say with a high degree of certainty, that the time has officially arrived.

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program
The Federal Reserve, saying “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States,” cut interest rates to near-zero on Sunday and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program to shelter the economy from the effects of the virus.

Facing highly disrupted financial markets, the Fed also slashed the rate of emergency lending at the discount window for banks by 125 bps to 0.25%, and lengthened the term of loans to 90 days.

The new fed funds rate, used as a benchmark both for short-term lending for financial institutions and as a peg to many consume rates, will now be targeted at 0%-0.25%.

The Fed also cut reserve requirement ratios for thousands of banks to zero. In addition, in a global coordinated move by centrals banks, the Fed said the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank took action to enhance dollar liquidity around the world through existing dollar swap arrangements.

Anybody who thinks this is all just because of some virus, isn't thinking hard enough. The virus is just an excuse.




The time is indeed now.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 20:20:57

copious.abundance wrote:...
My new thesis I've been developing for the past several months is that yields on (at least some) US treasuries will follow those of other developed countries and head into negative territory. Though what the implications of that are, beyond that the bond market is pricing in long-term low growth and low inflation, I know not.

And BTW, here's another prediction I made back in July which is getting close to happening.

Here is CNBC's treasury yield chart I always keep an eye on. The 3-month is down to 0.137 as I write this:
https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 02:30:28

Zero interest rates do not mean we will be eating long pig. After the 2008 recession, we had very low interest rates for years and had economic growth. I'm confident and long.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 04:47:45

Anybody who thinks this is all just because of some virus, isn't thinking hard enough. The virus is just an excuse.


Spare me the BS. It's the 12th time that the sun has set on a US economic expansion since 1945. And it ain't got nuttin' to do with peak oil (LTG*).

https://www.nber.org/cycles.html

*
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 09:52:54

marmico wrote:
Anybody who thinks this is all just because of some virus, isn't thinking hard enough. The virus is just an excuse.


Spare me the BS. It's the 12th time that the sun has set on a US economic expansion since 1945. And it ain't got nuttin' to do with peak oil (LTG*).

https://www.nber.org/cycles.html

*
Image


...... and limits to growth is a conspiracy theory conjured up by some hippies back in the '70's. Indeed, economies can grow forever as long as we believe they can.

Right???
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 11:35:11

"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 17:08:44

I perfected the art of the Short in 08-09..did not make a lot then, but learned a TON. I am up Bigly this time by paying very close attention and using 2/3X leveraged ETF's. Its actually fun. What I am worried about now is the 'system". Hoping we dont crash much more than we have, but we have quite a ways to go yet and NO ONE knows what exactly the hit to the US/Global economy is going to be. IMHO its going to be large and not short term like a bunch of folks seem to think.
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