[lotrfan55345]

link
Lawlesness, anarchy, militias, clans.... does this sound like the post-peak world to you? There is only one country without a government, and that country is Somalia. Is this what post-peak life will be like?

[skateari]

I dont think the US will turn out like that. at least the US is trying to prevent that (by reverting into fascism). I think we will see stronger federal government under the command of FEMA try to take over everything once shit got really bad. I think the people in power will be trying to maintain that power with force and doubt there will be a large enough uprise to create a civil war. In 20+ years, who knows. But I know the government is already making preparations to deal with the chaos that will erupt. I think the government will be able to keep a strong grip on society at least for a decade or two. After war or some of event, and as things become more isolated and less in touch with the world, somolia would be a good example of what could happen.

[SidneyTawl]

Didn't see this anywhere else here today: link
Wonder if its fake link people are putting up. Anyone else here about this. If its true, it does rank up there in the weather anonomly arena.

[KiddieKorral]

The site looks legit, but that's just my impression- I could be wrong.

[The_Virginian]

hmm that is wierd, must have killed the coffie crop...not good for the farmers or consumers.

maybe "wobble" or pole shift instead of "greenhouse" gas because first the planet is supposed to heat up, then chill in those theories...

tis' all but a guess.

[KiddieKorral]

I doubt it's pole shift- all that will affect is your compass. Wobble, on the other hand, might have something to do with it.

(SPECULATION DISCLAIMER: I have no idea what I'm talking about.)

[SidneyTawl]

My first thought is where did the cold air come from. It couldn't have been a "normal" front. Have to go look and the weather maps for the last few days and see what the temps were before it happend in the area.

If the cold air "dropped" from high up in the atmosphere.

like Jed used to say.

wellllll, doooggggiees..

[SidneyTawl]

it might not fit "man is doing it" normal ol greenhouse theories, but it could fit a couple of others.

Though Day after was based on "greenhouse gas from man" causing this.

There are other reasons that represent a normal shift for the earth.

Now that doesn't make it normal for us.

Cars, and stuff make a lot of very very very bad pollution. Needs to be corrected, of course seems like we are on course for that anyhoo, ..without really trying.

Now what is making the sun seem to be operating out of its cycle, and the earth seems to be operating in different cyce. One might effect the other and vise versa for sure. However what makes it all happen in the first place. Thats the mystery.

[philneville]

There is Oil secretly being pumped off the North Coast of Somalia(aswell as Nuclear waste being dumped along the coast of the chaotic East African country) Somalia is the only country in the world without a working goverment, there are no coast guards, only fishermen and pirates(who have hijacked these Oil tankers for a ransom in the past).

The real reason for US intervention in 1993 (that was assisted by Conoco Oil) was to secure their assets, not for humanitarian reasons.

In a 1991 World Bank-coordinated study, intended to encourage private investment in the petroleum potential of eight African nations, the geologists put Somalia and Sudan at the top of the list of prospective commercial oil producers.

Last years Tsunami meant that alot of the nuclear wasted was washed up on the shores of the country, toxic barrels can be seen on the beaches.

[frankthetank]

Pictures...testimonies...articles...links?

I wouldn't doubt that the US would want oil from there, but its nice to have atleast something to go on.

[dukey]

if it's secret how come you know about it ?

[rockdoc123]

There is Oil secretly being pumped off the North Coast of Somalia(aswell as Nuclear waste being dumped along the coast of the chaotic East African country) Somalia is the only country in the world without a working goverment, there are no coast guards, only fishermen and pirates(who have hijacked these Oil tankers for a ransom in the past).

Well it would be interesting to know who is doing this then given that all of the former oil contracts with the Somalia government either expired in the late eighties or are still under force majeure. If you are speaking of that area now called Somaliland ....the self proclaimed government has never been recognized as legitimate by any country in the world. Any company operating there would be pretty stupid given that the new gov't of Somalia could just walk in and take away any discoveries made. But basically this is all bullshit anyway. If someone was producing it would be visible on satellite....high res satellite (down to 6m) from various sources is widely avialble to industry including Nigel Press and Associates who would have highlighted this in studies over this area if it were indeed happening.

If there is oil on the beaches in Somalia/Somaliland it is because the tankers that progress up through the Red Sea are purging their bilges and it is washing up onshore. Note also that there are natural oil seeps in Somalia/Somaliland as well as along the Red Sea coastline.

As to nuclear waste...the area offshore is rife with pirate traffic...who knows who is carrying what and dumping what.

[Pablo2079]

I found this regarding the nuclear waste being stirred up by the Tsunami...

Somalia's secret dumps of toxic waste washed ashore by tsunami From Jonathan Clayton in Johannesburg
THE huge waves which battered northern Somalia after the tsunami in December are believed to have stirred up tonnes of nuclear and toxic waste illegally dumped in the war-racked country during the early 1990s.
Apart from killing about 300 people and destroying thousands of homes, the waves broke up rusting barrels and other containers and hazardous waste dumped along the long, remote shoreline, a spokesman for the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) said.
“Initial reports indicate that the tsunami waves broke open containers full of toxic waste and scattered the contents. We are talking about everything from medical waste to chemical waste products,” Nick Nuttal, the Unep spokesman, told The Times.

link

[BabyPeanut]

Somalia welcomes oil interest, says no China talks
Sun Aug 21, 2005 4:48 PM GMT

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Somalia's fledgling government welcomes approaches by firms keen to hunt for oil or gas on its territory but has yet to open any such discussions, President Abdullahi Yusuf said on Sunday.

Somalia's oil and gas potential attracted attention from Western major oil producers before the country collapsed in chaos in 1991, and diplomats say Asian firms have shown recent interest amid efforts to stabilise the Horn of Africa country.

--More--

[philneville]

They(the British) are paying the warlords in the North, for the pumping, dumping and to make sure 'Pirates' do not hijack any tankers. link
Recently so as not to bring attention to why there are tankers full of Oil on the most dangerous coastline in the world they claim the Pirates hijack ships full of food aid whenever they hijack a tanker and demand a ransom.

[UIUCstudent01]

You know. I never really thought PIRATES still existed. I guess I was sheltered or somesuch...

[rockdoc123]

They(the British) are paying the warlords in the North, for the pumping, dumping and to make sure 'Pirates' do not hijack any tankers. link
Recently so as not to bring attention to why there are tankers full of Oil on the most dangerous coastline in the world they claim the Pirates hijack ships full of food aid whenever they hijack a tanker and demand a ransom

Thats just stupid....the news clipping is talking about the possibility that pirates had captured a Korean oil tanker bringing oil likely from the Middle East through to the Red Sea and out through the the Gulf of Suez. Where does it say the "British" are paying anyone anything and where does it say anyone is pumping oil anywhere in Somalia/Somaliland? This is the regular traffic channel for tankers coming from India and the Middle East supplying oil to Europe you dolt.
If I'm going to imagine black helicopters I'd like a good reason to do so.

[philneville]

The Name of the Game in Somalia is Oil By Karamatullah K. Ghori:
Toronto--George W. Bush, under pressure from Japan and South Korea, has let it be known that he has dropped plans to attack, militarily, North Korea, one of the three " axis of evil" countries by his recknoning.

Those knowing the mind and mentality of Bush knew, from the moment he uttered his litany of ‘ axis of evil’ that North Korea had only been included in the pack to hoodwink the Muslims and make them believe that he was not a crusader against the world of Islam only. That he has not taken Iraq or Iran " off the table", as he is fond of saying, should not surprise anyone. Bush has his heart set on taking to finality the agenda of hostility against ‘unrelenting’ Islamic countries, initially set by his father in the late 80s and early 90s.

Logically, Bush should have included Somalia, the rag tag country teetering on the brink of disintegration for so long, in his ‘ axis of evil’. His military planners have long had their sights on chasing the elusive Al Qaeda partisans into their alleged lairs in Somalia. The American people, forced-fed on a diet of frenzied chauvinism since September 11, would hardly be averse to such a repeat- adventure after the ‘success’ in Afghanistan—though the chicks there are coming home to roost. The roaring box-office success of a Hollywood , adrenaline-pumping , war-thriller, " Black Hawk Down", based on the American military intervention in Somalia in the twilight days of Bush Senior in the White House, is cashing in on the popular hankering for more American ‘victories.’

The Hollywood thriller paints the American soldiers as, what else, ‘heroes’ fighting for liberty and human dignity, the lofty principles invariably cited as the justification for every military adventure abroad since the cold war. The American people are not prepared to question these flimsy pretexts because they have been made to believe that their ‘way of life’ is inextricably linked with America’s ‘moral crusade’ abroad. The media is squarely behind the ‘crusaders’ in their zeal to rid the world of all that is ‘evil’ to America.

But there are still voices of sanity pleading for a less-jaundiced version of the world divided between good and evil. An unconventional website, NetNomad.com, has recently posted a ‘ Los Angeles Times’ report of Jan.18, 1993 by the paper’s correspondent in Mogadishu, Mark Fineman, at the height of American " humanitarian" military intervention there, supposedly in defence of human rights. The report paints a totally different view of U.S. military intervention in Somalia.

Bush Senior went into Somalia with 20 thousand US troops in December, 1992 when he had been defeated in his re-election bid by Bill Clinton and was a lame-duck President. Why such a major overseas undertaking by an outgoing president was a question that perplexed many. His excuse was that US was in Somalia on a humanitarian mission to beef up the UN effort to stave off a bloodbath from civil war and anarchy. The real mission for Bush Senior was something else. He went in there to save the interest of US oil giants from his native Texas. After all, he had made his fortunes in the oil industry before making a mark in politics. The powerful and influence-peddling oil cartel had bankrolled him into politics, and he was anxious to pay back in kind. He might have lost his own bid for re-election but he had sons waiting in the wings to inherit his mantle. He had to lubricate their passage into high-stakes politics by obliging his powerful friends.

Bush’s interest in the countries around the Horn of Africa, marking the nexus of the Red Sea with the Arabian Sea, began in the mid-80s when he was Vice-President to Reagan. Hunt Oil Company, a Texas-based oil giant, had explored for oil successfully in Yemen and discovered oil deposits there of up to one billion barrels. Geologists believed that there was a natural trough of oil that extended across the Red Sea into Somalia from Yemen. The World Bank had an intensive technical study on oil prospects in the region around Yemen done by its principal petroleum engineer, an Irishman by the name of Thomas E. O’Connor, in the mid-80s. O’Connor was dead certain that "it’s there. There’s no doubt there’s oil there." Somalia beckoned, just as Yemen had lured them earlier.

Their doubts, if any, put to rest by this independent WB study, Bush’s friends in the oil cartel of America saw a bonanza for themselves and swooped down on Somalia in hordes. Bush used his office and influence to egg them on.

There was also a political motive with the Reagan Whit House to decrease America’s dependence on oil from the Gulf region, because the oil producers there constantly found fault with the undisguised pro-Israeli bias of the administration against Arab and Muslim interests. For that reason alone, Bush in particular was keen that his Texas friends from the oil industry should focus on Somalia with a big search light. Inaugurating the brand new oil refinery of Hunt Oil at Maarib, in Yemen, in April, 1986, Vice President Bush insisted that it was of " growing strategic importance to the west" to tap crude oil resources " in the region away from the Strait of Hormuz."

The American oil companies had no problem in winning concessions from President Siad Barre of Somalia. He was corrupt and a lackey of Washington. With his palms sufficiently greased, he awarded generous exploration rights to at least four American companies to look for oil in Somalia. These were : Conoco, Amoco, Chevron and Phillip—all of them with connections to Bush.

Tens of millions of dollars were sunk into the oil wells of Somalia. The largest investment was made by Conoco. But before any of the wells could spew oil in commercial quantities, Siad Barre licked the dirt. His corrupt regime was overthrown in January 1991, and Somalia was consumed by a civil war which forced all foreign enterprises to fold their tents and get out of the country—all except Conoco. The Houston-based Conoco did not want to desert Somalia for two reasons : one, they had had the largest investment of money in Somalia and, two, their friend George Bush was, by then, in the White House. They were in no hurry to cut their losses and run.

But George Bush, at that juncture, was overly engrossed with Saddam Hussain and Iraq. His " Desert Storm" was just then rolling to oust Iraq from Kuwait. So, Conoco simply cooled their heels in their huge compound in Mogadishu and bribed the civil war combatants to leave them alone. They thought they had all the time in the world to recover their losses whenever calm returned to Somalia. Besides, the thumping success of their buddy, Bush, in "Desert Storm" gave them reason to believe that he would win a second term, hands down, and then look after their interest. That was not to be.

Bush’s humiliating defeat at the hands of Clinton robbed him of a second stint and Conoco of a powerful mentor. But Bush did not want to leave his friends high and dry in Mogadishu, and decided to give his favourite military option a last chance to fashion the chessboard in Somalia to his friends’ liking. That was the backdrop to Bush rushing in 20 thousand American troops to aid the UN, ostensibly, in its plan to restore normalcy in Somalia. Only his perspective of ‘normalcy’ was different.

Bush also sent in a political tribune of his trust to sort things out at the diplomatic level to pave the way for Conoco to get their oil gear out in the field once again. Robert D. Oakley was his czar in Somalia. Oakley, a chip off the old block, had pleased Bush in his stint as ambassador to Pakistan in the crucial, winding- down, days of the Afghan War. He behaved more like a pro-consul than ambassador in Islamabad which did not earn him many friends there but the hawkish, conservative, Republican right was immensely pleased with his performance. They knew he was their man to pull their chestnut out of the Somalian fire.

Oakley moved straight into the Conoco compound in Mogadishu which became the operational headquarters for both the civilian and military activities. While the U.S. soldiers behaved like an occupation army—exactly the way they are acting in Afghanistan, today—Oakley started throwing his weight around in the political arena. There, he soon ran into his nemesis, Farah Aideed, the warlord who had played a big role in chasing Siad Barre out of power.

Farah Aideed had had a chequered career. Once a favourite of Siad Barre , he eventually broke ranks with his mentor. Barre packed him off to India as Ambassador in New Delhi where he lived five years and imbibed a lot of India in him. He returned to Somalia against Barre’s will and soon became one of his tormentors. Aideed repeated his medicine on Oakley, too. And the rest, as they say, is history. American soldiers’ arrogant, colonial, behaviour made them the enemies of all the warring Somali factions, especially Aideed’s. Scores of them were killed in hand to hand combat. Clinton, by then in the White House, cut his losses and pulled the entire U.S. contingent out of Somalia. Conoco’s dream of striking rich in Somalia lay buried in the debris of war.

That was 9 years ago. Bush Jr. now thinks September 11 has served Somalia on a platter to him and his powerful friends in the Texas oil lobby. The new Bush doctrine of fighting evil and terrorism is a rehash of the old Bush doctrine of controlling the energy resources of the Gulf and the region around it. The essential thrust, and end-game, of both is the same: keep the world of Islam in thrall to the west and exploit its rich mineral deposits to the hilt for the benefit of the west. That was the thesis expounded by that redoubtable dispenser of power politics, Henry Kissinger, in the early 70s when OPEC imposed the first oil embargo against the west for its unabashed espousal of Israeli interests at the cost of the Arabs.

Conoco and others of their ilk must have started dusting their old blueprints of Somalia. They have, once again, a friend in the White House prepared to wage a crusade on their behalf. None should doubt his resolve to realise his dreams and those of his friends. He is behaving as if he were in a game of blind man’s buff, swinging his stout stick around with his eyes closed. He has despatched 600 American soldiers to assist the Filipino army to ferret out the brigands of Abu Siaf from the jungle. He has recently responded similarly to a call from Edouard Shavernadze of Georgia to fight his rebels said to be abetted by the Chechens. Anyone who could pronounce Al Qaeda may rest assured that George W. Bush would respond to their call with a missionary zeal. His mission has a single sentence bottom line: he will fight ‘ Islamic terrorism’ in the remotest corner of the world.

Footnote : There is no doubt that Bush has a team of stalwarts who share his conviction as much as they did his father’s. A’hero’ of the old " Desert Storm" team, General Norman Schwarzkopf, was recently interviewed on tv and asked if those accused of harbouring and assisting the alleged terrorists of Sep 11 did not deserve to be forgiven ? Without losing a breath, Schwarzkopf answered : " I believe that forgiving them is God’s function. Our job is simply to arrange the meeting."

[philneville]

There is Oil in Somalia, no doubt about it there is ALOT of Oil, and there is no Al Qaeda, maybe a few arabs but no real power or training camps because that would lead to fighting with the Warlords and it would be on the news, its just a excuse to come into Somalia to secure the Oil for themselves under the whole War on Terrorism nonsense, like they did with Afghanistan. Somalia needs to do business with China in my opinion, the old contracts can be written off as worthless and there will be more security when China has major Oil assets in the country.

In a 1991 World Bank-coordinated study, intended to encourage private investment in the petroleum potential of eight African nations, the geologists put Somalia and Sudan at the top of the list of prospective commercial oil producers.

Obviously Bush and co knew this like the article above shows, why would Conoco spend millions setting up there unless they knew they were guranteed to get billions back, the potential in the country is huge, just need to make the right moves and know the right people...

Im planning to start a degree in Geology & Petroleum Geology next year, before I go to Somalia to work help sort this mess out, I am a British born Somali.

[rockdoc123]

There is Oil in Somalia, no doubt about it there is ALOT of Oil, and there is no Al Qaeda, maybe a few arabs but no real power or training camps because that would lead to fighting with the Warlords and it would be on the news, its just a excuse to come into Somalia to secure the Oil for themselves under the whole War on Terrorism nonsense, like they did with Afghanistan. Somalia needs to do business with China in my opinion, the old contracts can be written off as worthless and there will be more security when China has major Oil assets in the country.

In a 1991 World Bank-coordinated study, intended to encourage private investment in the petroleum potential of eight African nations, the geologists put Somalia and Sudan at the top of the list of prospective commercial oil producers.

Obviously Bush and co knew this like the article above shows, why would Conoco spend millions setting up there unless they knew they were guranteed to get billions back, the potential in the country is huge, just need to make the right moves and know the right people...

Im planning to start a degree in Geology & Petroleum Geology next year, before I go to Somalia to work help sort this mess out, I am a British born Somali.

As to whether there is oil in Somalia/Somaliland (depending on how that fiasco sorts itself out) it is likely given that there are oil seeps recognized. At issue is how big. My view on this is that given the basinal area, depth of burial of potential Jurassic source rocks the absolute high side case might be another lookalike to Yemen. The difference here however is shallower level of burial of potential reservoir rocks which runs the risk of lack of effective seal and also that the oil will be biodegraded (heavy). There are some areas that are not well understood such as the offshore but I think they are very high risk.

Note that Conoco did not think all that highly of their blocks. Prior to US invasion Conoco was quite active. They had the option of declaring force majeure which would have held this blocks until such time as everything could be sorted out but they instead decided to walk, suggesting they did not see anything large enough to warrant hanging around.

There are so many issues with this part of the world that I suspect you will not see any oil activity here in the next 5 years which would likely mean the earliest any sort of production could occur would be by 2015 which falls on or after everything outside of Saudi has peaked (according to WoodMac data). Somaliland has some attractive acreage from a hydrocarbon perspective but they are not recognized as having soverignty by the UN and the UN in general is more in support of a united Somalia under the new provisional government. Somaliland will not have any of that. Not only is that an issue but in Somalia itself the provisional government was scared to death to return to Mogadishu....the war lords still run the country ....everyone and his dog has a "technical" (pickup truck with a large calibre machine gun mounted in the back) and every kid over the age of 12 has an AK. Things have not changed one iota since "Blackhawk Down".

Bottom line is there might be some oil here but by the time anyone gets to it .....will make no difference since we will be in steep decline everywhere...unless the Saudis are telling the truth.