[Plantagenet]

Why should the Saudis increase production? They are finally making a killing and the Dems will keep the US drillers from ramping up production much with higher taxes, permit fees, regulatory delays, etc. If there is a major recession then oil prices will decline- they probably see this coming and want to get what money they can while it lasts.

That is precisely my point.

But nonetheless Joe Biden seems to think that if he goes to Saudi and personally begs the Saudis to increase production, then they will.


Please Prince Muhammad....Please pump more oil for your old buddy joe.....please please please please.......I'm begging ya man.....

There actually are some things Biden can offer to Prince Muhammad to make a deal.

For example, Biden might offer to drop sanctions and all criminal investigation on Prince Muhammad and his minions for ordering and carrying out the murder of Kashoggi.

Its also possible Biden will offer Saudi exotic military hardware if they pump more oil....perhaps Predator drones or perhaps even missile technology help them match the Iranians.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens when Biden goes to Saudi. Given the fact that OPEC oil production has actually been FALLING in recent months in spite of the year-long increase in oil prices it seems likely that OPEC won't help....or maybe even OPEC no longer can raise production as much as they used to in past.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

The second coming of $100/bbl oil inevitably brings the question of peak oil back around again, and Dr. Guy McPherson.....the Doomer to end all Doomers.....has just released a new video saying that peak oil is back.

peak-oil-has-not-gone-away

I was surprised during the last cycle of $100/bbl oil when Obama took Sarah Palin's advice and suddenly "drill baby drill" became US national energy policy. And I was even more surprised when it worked....the US actually hugely increased its oil production and even briefly become energy independent. Obama even bragged during one of his state of the union addresses that the US now had a 100-year-long natural gas supply thanks to fracking.

But somehow after only 16 months of incompetence and mismanagement by the Biden presidency thats all gone.

Its bad enough Biden bungled the Afghan withdrawal, but then he bungled US border policy and he bungled the covid response and Biden bungled US energy policy and then he bungled deterring Putin from invading Ukraine. AND that last Biden bungle did it----Biden's big bungle has now totally bungled up everything.

Suddenly we've got $100+/bbl oil again, and we've got $5/gallon gasoline again, and the world is talking about oil supply and natural gas supply shortfalls. Suddenly the US isn't energy independent anymore and Biden just announced he is going to Saudi to beg his good buddy Prince Muahammad to pump more oil.

Suddenly the booming US economy is headed for recession.

Suddenly trillions of dollars of wealth in the crypto market and the stock market has vanished.

Suddenly even real estate prices are starting to fall.

And suddenly, even though energy prices started going up a year ago, OPEC oil production has been going DOWN for the last few months.

Suddenly.....suddenly......Guy McPherson is saying PeakOil is back.

Personally, I don't want peak oil to be back.

Personally, I was pretty happy with a booming world economy.


.....but suddenly everything changed.......all it took was one Biden bungle after another Biden bungle and suddenly everything is going to hell.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

The second coming of $100/bbl oil inevitably brings the question of peak oil back around again, and Dr. Guy McPherson.....the Doomer to end all Doomers.....has just released a new video saying that peak oil is back.

You never have been able to tell us if or how your grief counseling went when you met him in Alaska, during one of his global tours touting the end of the world. I mean, the other end of the world times he claimed, not whatever the most recent rinse and repeat is.

Suddenly.....suddenly......Guy McPherson is saying PeakOil is back.

Looking for his tour to come back for a little more grief counseling are you?

Plant....even you can do better than that.

[Plantagenet]

Oil demand is predicted to exceed oil supply next year.....and growth in supply will fall fall farther behind the increase in demand.

oil-supply-growth-expected-to-lag-behind-demand-next-year

In theory, increased oil prices should bring more oil to market.

But so far that isn't happening.

The result......the second coming of $100/bbl oil.

If the increase in supply isn't coming this year.....and according to the WSJ it isn't coming next year....then when will the increase in oil supply start to bring down oil prices?

Will oil prices come down in 2024? 2025?

And where will the new oil supply come from to drive down oil prices?

Or perhaps oil prices will come down not as a result of higher oil production.....but when global oil demand collapses as the world goes into recession?

I'm curious to see how this all plays out.....especially because President Biden is clearly senile and his rudderless administration is floundering and seems utterly incapable of solving any of the crises that have hit the US during his brief time in Office......


Biden's always had a gaffe problem.....but now he's senile in addition to being stupid, and its hard to tell the gaffes from the stupidity from the senility.

Cheers!

[Doly]

If the increase in supply isn't coming this year.....and according to the WSJ it isn't coming next year....then when will the increase in oil supply start to bring down oil prices?

Will oil prices come down in 2024? 2025?

And where will the new oil supply come from to drive down oil prices?

Or perhaps oil prices will come down not as a result of higher oil production.....but when global oil demand collapses as the world goes into recession?

These are the peak oil forums. Of course the answers to those questions here are that oil supply isn't coming up ever again, and oil prices will come down when demand collapses due to recession.

Adam's constantly whining about: How do you know this one is THE peak oil? But that's the wrong question. That's like asking: How do you know this is THE heart attack that may kill you? You don't know, but you call an ambulance regardless, just in case.

And anyway, the data about discoveries doesn't support the theory that there is enough oil waiting to be developed that oil supply is ever going to come up again.

[Plantagenet]

Adam's constantly whining about: How do you know this one is THE peak oil? But that's the wrong question. That's like asking: How do you know this is THE heart attack that may kill you? You don't know, but you call an ambulance regardless, just in case.

You make a good argument. Personally, I stopped reading Adam's posts some time ago because they're largely a waste of time.

..... anyway, the data about discoveries doesn't support the theory that there is enough oil waiting to be developed that oil supply is ever going to come up again.

Yes....but the same thing was was said the last time oil prices went over $100/bbl in 2009-2010.

People firmly believed that US oil production had peaked back in 1970 and they were equally confident in predicting that prices over $100/bbl in 2009-2010 were a sign of peak oil on a global basis.

BUT then Obama presided over a drill-baby-drill oil policy in the US, and drilling and fracking produced more and more oil, so that the US blew past its earlier peak and global oil production continued to grow for another decade.

So all those earlier predictions were totally wrong.

AND here we are again with oil prices over $100/bbl.

Personally, I don't know what's going to happen in the future now that we've hit $100/bbl oil again. Perhaps we are actually at global peak oil this time, as you are suggesting, or perhaps there is some other new oil province in the Arctic Ocean or Africa or below the salt in the Atlantic or somewhere else that will postpone the arrival of peak oil for another decade.

I don't know which is right.

Thats why I'm asking.

Thats why I'm watching global oil production numbers and oil prices closely right now.

Perhaps ROCKDOC or somebody else still in the oil biz has a thought on this one.

We've had higher oil prices for almost a year now......but there isn't much news about increased drilling and increased oil production occurring in response to the higher oil prices.

So what is going on in the oil biz to respond to the high oil prices?


Where is the new oil drilling? Or is there a reason for the lack of new oil drilling......like a lack of good targets for development?

CHEERS!

[AdamB]

Adam's constantly whining about: How do you know this one is THE peak oil? But that's the wrong question.

Not to those who want to pretend that having screwed it up in the past, they can't be held accountable when they simply repeat their prior half witted analysis without a moments thought as to WHY they keep getting it wrong.

And anyway, the data about discoveries doesn't support the theory that there is enough oil waiting to be developed that oil supply is ever going to come up again.

How interesting. Discoveries aren't the main component of how or why oil supply will go up again in the future. If you don't even know the primary components (in terms of volume and price) of what has caused, is causing, and can continue to cause a rise in oil production in the future, what in the world allows you to draw the conclusion you just did? Throwing some chicken bones?

[AdamB]

Adam's constantly whining about: How do you know this one is THE peak oil? But that's the wrong question. That's like asking: How do you know this is THE heart attack that may kill you? You don't know, but you call an ambulance regardless, just in case.

You make a good argument. Personally, I stopped reading Adam's posts some time ago because they're largely a waste of time.

Well, a waste of time if your only goal is to represent the right wing troll contingent poorly anyway while avoiding those who point it out. Although I understand that my pointing out the possible damage from the psychological side effects of your personal contact with Mr. "Come a little closer that I may counsel your grief my dear doomer" McPherson could be a touchy subject as well.

[vtsnowedin]

An interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

[PeakOilFanatic]

An interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

Forced sale? Why? US Woke Military is BANKRUPT...thats why.

Strong US Military is Just Another lie from Adam...Russia is really China, isn't it?

Ukraine war: Russia becomes China’s biggest oil supplier
Imports of Russian oil rose by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest provider.
China has ramped up purchases of Russian oil despite demand dampened by Covid curbs and a slowing economy.
In February, China and Russia declared their friendship had “no limits”.

[PeakOilFanatic]

Why can't you incompetents admit North Ghawar is doing a SENECA CLIFF?

The collapse has been going on in earnest since 2019. The global human enterprise was actually effectively stopped by 2015 by a Seneca Cliff Event (look at 2015 on first chart), around 7 years into the peak oil plateau. We are now in global energy decline rates (petroleum) of around 8% per annum. You are all going to DIE in THE OIL APOCALYPSE I predicted in 2013. Look at 2024 in the first graph.

*****AMERICA WILL BE GONE BY 2024***** according to the Ghawar chart below and Texas Permian Shale seneca cliffing.

https://aktiertips.se/northern-ghawar-w ... /#more-214
https://aktiertips.se/saudiarabien-ghaw ... ld-you-so/

[PeakOilFanatic]

Where is the passion for KING DIESEL?

A full scale CTL plant, say 150 kbpd diesel, would cost around 20 billion dollars and be a giant global, multiyear project (probably the biggest global project around while it is built.) I doubt if there are resources available, whether human or equipment supply, to support more than two such projects at any time at the moment and the capacity that exists is gradually falling. If the global industrial society collapses as it seems to be going I think mega projects like this will prove increasingly difficult to execute and, even if completed, to maintain.

[C8]

An interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

Western nations are looking to move green and hamper their fossil fuel industries. Sales, like the one above, of private assets to govt. may be the future. Instead of getting our oil from BP, EXXON, it may come from Iraqi or SA nationalized corps in 10-15 years.

[PeakOilFanatic]

An interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

Western nations are looking to move green and hamper their fossil fuel industries. Sales, like the one above, of private assets to govt. may be the future. Instead of getting our oil from BP, EXXON, it may come from Iraqi or SA nationalized corps in 10-15 years.

Uh, I don't think you are even close. I'll provide you with some clues.

Western nations no longer exist.
Green = Lethal injections for people who don't stand on top of premium crude oil. See Deagel world forecast 2025.

Comprendi?

[vtsnowedin]

Where is the passion for KING DIESEL?

A full scale CTL plant, say 150 kbpd diesel, would cost around 20 billion dollars and be a giant global, multiyear project (probably the biggest global project around while it is built.) I doubt if there are resources available, whether human or equipment supply, to support more than two such projects at any time at the moment and the capacity that exists is gradually falling. If the global industrial society collapses as it seems to be going I think mega projects like this will prove increasingly difficult to execute and, even if completed, to maintain.

All of that will come down to the cost per barrel of the finished fuel. If crude oil becomes truly scarce then any country with extensive coal deposits could build successful CTL plants at the then going high oil price.

[Plantagenet]

Joe Biden is bashing US oil producers for not boosting oil production in spite of the fact that US oil producers are boosting production

us-drillers-add-oil-gas-rigs-second-week-row-baker-hughes-

THE Drill Rig count is up in the US and US oil production is back up near pre-pandemic levels.....but thats not enough to bring down oil prices.

We're going to need oil prices to go even higher to create a large amount of demand destruction. Thats the only way to bring the oil market back into equilibrium and finally bring oil prices back down.


Raise gas prices far enough and you destroy demand and then prices will come down. Its so easy even Joe Biden should be able to understand it!!!!!

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

I have not checked today but if you look at EIAs rig count history chart you can see the numbers track oil price s more than anything. Back when oil got down into the $30's/B the count was down to about 250 and last I looked it was up to 650 or so.
But it is going to take more then drilling on existing leases to offset the loss of Russian oil and gas which was going gangbusters when oil was in the 30s.
A 100% interest free loan to build a new refinery with 100% of the needed permits attached day one, with a thirty year guarantee of utilization might be a start. Otherwise the oil companies will just sit and wait for Biden to get swept out of office.

[Plantagenet]

Ukraine war: Russia becomes China’s biggest oil supplier
Imports of Russian oil rose by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest provider.
China has ramped up purchases of Russian oil ....

Thats because Russia is now selling oil to China at a steep discount to world oil prices.

Putin is so stupid he has turned Russia into a subordinate client state for China as shown by the fact that China is cheating Russia on their oil by paying below market prices....


Putin is letting China cheat Russia on every barrel of oil they sell....what a crazy man!


You'd think the Russians would be smart enough to figure out China is cheating them on every barrel of oil, but apparently the Russians are so frightened of crazy Putin that no one dares say anything about it.

[PeakOilFanatic]

Ukraine war: Russia becomes China’s biggest oil supplier
Imports of Russian oil rose by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest provider.
China has ramped up purchases of Russian oil ....

Thats because Russia is now selling oil to China at a steep discount to world oil prices.

Putin is so stupid he has turned Russia into a subordinate client state for China as shown by the fact that China is cheating Russia on their oil by paying below market prices....


Putin is letting China cheat Russia on every barrel of oil they sell....what a crazy man!


You'd think the Russians would be smart enough to figure out China is cheating them on every barrel of oil, but apparently the Russians are so frightened of crazy Putin that no one dares say anything about it.

Putin graduated from WEF. ZioPuppet.

Russia is doing the same thing USA did in 2004 with the Iraq War. They are grand suckers. Wasting their people resources and equipment for the benefit of Israel-China.

[AdamB]

A 100% interest free loan to build a new refinery with 100% of the needed permits attached day one, with a thirty year guarantee of utilization might be a start. Otherwise the oil companies will just sit and wait for Biden to get swept out of office.

Oil companies don't care about the current oligarch brand when it comes to making long term capital expenditure decisions. They care about rules, regulations, their expectations of the future market and their ability to make money in it.