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THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 23 Mar 2011, 21:35:09

Loki wrote:
Graeme wrote:Saudi Arabia: Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Al Husseini forecasts The Peak Oil high point “a plateau in total output that will last approximately fifteen years,” meaning that soon after 2020 “a slow but steady output decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it.”.

That seems optimistic :). Plateau until 2020, then "slow and steady" decline. Best case scenario?

He may well be right about KSA production, but globally it may be much earlier.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Saudi Arabia: Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 23 Mar 2011, 21:41:06

Said he was misquoted
Ex-Aramco Official: US Cable Wrong to Dispute Saudi Reserves
by Angus McDowall|Dow Jones Newswires|Wednesday, February 09, 2011
Facebook knows you're a dog.
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Re: Saudi Arabia: Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 24 Mar 2011, 19:04:50

Yes, the text looks similar except that in the Rigzone article there is no mention of the timing of peak oil - 2020 or thereabouts.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: Saudi Arabia: Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 24 Mar 2011, 19:42:14

2020

is that 8 years and 9 months away?
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Re: Saudi Arabia: Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 24 Mar 2011, 19:59:01

We will ramp up renewable energy to cover the shortfall - see my latest post in the Future Energy Technology thread. Don't worry about a thing! Image
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: Saudi Arabia: Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Unread postby DomusAlbion » Fri 25 Mar 2011, 17:39:00

I feel pretty confident that the Saudi's are, ahem, to put it nicely, prevaricating!

Aramco is owned and run by the royal family and its production figures are produced to show what those in power want the world to think. There are no independent, outside auditors and the wells cannot produce new oil that exactly matches the amount sold over the last year.

It's all made up. One day we'll wake up when the House of Saud can no longer hide the truth. And then it will be "Oops, sorry world." :roll:
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Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 13:29:30

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's oil minister said on Sunday the market was oversupplied and the kingdom had reduced output, sending a the strongest signal yet that OPEC may not boost output in June to quell soaring oil prices.

Consumers have urged the exporters' group to add supply to halt the rally in oil prices that has taken crude to its highest level in 2 1/2 years amid unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, but OPEC members say there is little they can do to bring prices down.

"The market is overbalanced ... Our production in February was 9.125 million barrels per day (bpd), in March it was 8.292 million bpd. In April we don't know yet, probably a little higher than March. The reason I gave you these numbers is to show you that the market is oversupplied," Naimi told reporters.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/04/17/idINIndia-56391220110417


Significant cut, that's almost a million barrels per day.

So which is it.. are oil prices due to peak oil or Ben Bernanke?
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby eXpat » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 13:52:17

And Saudi Arabia didn´t make it up for the Libyan oil either...
Saudi Arabia did not make up for Libyan oil
So my take is that the failure to increase production to compensate for Libya is deliberate. We can only speculate, but my guess is that, having watched how the west has helped to ease Mubarak and Ben-Ali out of power and is intervening in Libya to the same end, the Saudi regime is in no mood to care about our desire for more oil. Instead, they are very much in the mood to build as large a war chest as possible with which to appease their own population, strengthen their defense measures, etc.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7801
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Carlhole » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 14:17:40

You can start worrying when tanker start queuing.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 15:05:59

Saudi Arabia is cutting production??

Hmmmm....I think I'll hold on to my oil positions in the market a little bit longer. :-D
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 20:06:16

oversupplied?????????????????????????

so why is the oil price so high??
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 20:11:51

oversupplied?????????????????????????

so why is the oil price so high??


do you not read the news? The markets are antsy because Libya production is offstream temporarily, and the unrest extends to other oil producing nations such as Yemen and there is a worry it will work it's way into Saudi Arabia. It is not about oil suddenly running out, it is about oil production possibly being suspended for some period of time.
If you pay attention to the weekly EIA statement on supplies the US is at the uppermost end of the average for this time of year and storage is full. You would not expect that if we were in a "we need oil" situation.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby eXpat » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 20:20:38

kiwichick wrote:oversupplied?????????????????????????

so why is the oil price so high??

Don´t you know?? 8O Is the evil speculators!!!!!!!!!!!! :shock:
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 20:31:29

rockdoc123 wrote:If you pay attention to the weekly EIA statement on supplies the US is at the uppermost end of the average for this time of year and storage is full. You would not expect that if we were in a "we need oil" situation.


Actually, US oil inventories are now plunging downward at an unusually rapid rate---

US oil inventories plunge by most in last 12 years
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby cipi604 » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 20:55:50

The obvious becomes reality.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Lore » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 21:09:58

kiwichick wrote:oversupplied?????????????????????????

so why is the oil price so high??


Markets are forward looking and speculation is the market. Oil is a fungible commodity. So even with an oversupply in one country a threat to supplies else ware has the affect of driving prices up world wide.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 21:40:53

Full supplies at Cushing no longer matter to GLOBAL markets as they used to. There is a reason why we now see the spread between Brent and WTI. Screaming and thumping the table about full inventory at Cushing is nothing more than a misunderstanding of the nature of the current oil trading environment.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby sparky » Sun 17 Apr 2011, 21:57:06

.
All the above comments are valid , but expat has his finger on one of the reasons
the Kingdom was rattled by Obama call on Egypt and Tunisia
Libya is the reverse , they hate Kaddafi with passion and would have been delighted to see him hanging from a balcony
Closing their eyes on Israel is one thing but there is a clear understanding that
the Saudis familly is protected , they though it was all rather limp
in the middle East one has to pay one's debts
it was looking like the U.S. welshed on the deal in Bahrain
so they send their tanks across giving the finger to Prez Obama and his "winds of democracy"

The next thing to watch is if the gulf draw down their purchases of Treasury bonds

It could be also straightforward , they did release more oil than their quota , there is no point cheesing off their friends and it might be a sweet gesture to Iran too
production increase would then happen in batches
a couple of months on , a couple of months off

It could be that they don't want to trash their wells by overpumping

any or all of the above , plus some unknowns like the internal fight for the succession
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby americandream » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 01:33:08

The Saudi elite are playing a dangerous game as they are as dispensable as the next Saudi Chalabi is queuing up to backstab them. They can't win a stand off with the West which extends after all, from Finland to New Zealand and covers an awful lot of acreage and military might (not forgetting a tendency to close ranks), in between. Whether they realise this is another matter although paradoxically, I suspect that the West would probably give a nod and a wink to actions driven by desperate self preservation in a bid to preserve the user friendly presence of the Saud's in the Muslim world.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market overs upplied

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 03:23:27

Actually, US oil inventories are now plunging downward at an unusually rapid rate---


Refineries are running at 81 percent of their capacity. All they have to do is flip the "on" switch. There is plenty of crude oil around. The crude oil inventory is 3 million barrels higher than it was in 2010, equal to 2009, and 30 million higher than it was in 2008 at this time of year.

Do not assume a trend based on one week's data.
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