[onlooker]

It seemx thatthe intrigue in KSA is multilayered and deep. MBS, in fact is betraying US govt/corporate interests by NOT opening up to privatizing of Saufi assets as he seemed to have promised. Read all about it

The real reasons the knives are out for MBS

https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-real- ... w.facebook

Thanks for that link OL. Really good piece

Sorry about the typos

[onlooker]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10- ... -toxic-mbs
"The youngest brother of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has returned from self-imposed exile to “challenge” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) “or find someone who can,” reports the Middle East Eye."

[Cog]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-31/crown-princes-uncle-returns-saudi-arabia-oust-toxic-mbs
"The youngest brother of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has returned from self-imposed exile to “challenge” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) “or find someone who can,” reports the Middle East Eye."

No where in the article does it say that he had returned to Saudi Arabia. He is in exile in the UK. He has returned to the spotlight of news, but not to Saudi Arabia.

Crown Prince Salman isn't going anywhere, much to the rage and chagrin of those who want him out.

[Tanada]

It used to be taken as gospel around here that when KSA peaks we are at world peak. I am not so sure we can continue to make that claim however as fracking has created a whole different set up in the post conventional world we now find ourselves at or near. Nobody and I do mean nobody even the most optimistic cornucopian a decade ago predicted that the USA would be setting an all new peak every month in 2018 with fair odds of continuing that trend in 2019. Even more so, nobody but a few optimists thought anywhere else on Earth would succeed at Fracking even after the USA story was developing in 2011.

Yet in 2018 the USA is hitting a new peak production every month while the Vaca Muerta in Argentina is beginning to show profits and the UK has just lifted its multi year ban on fracking in its home islands. By the same token the failure of fracking in Poland (and California) has demonstrated that much of the 2011 news was pure hype without substantive evidence. On the gripping hand Russia announced a couple years ago they are planning to frack their giant source rock play and if that is as successful as Permian, or even Bakken in the USA then the Russians will be pushing their peak up by increments as well.

Point being, while all this fracking supply is currently abundant it doesn't much matter if KSA peaks, in the short term at least. Heck Iran itself peaked decades ago and is still a major supplier sanctions or no sanctions. Smuggling oil is more expensive and exciting, but its still production entering the world market and pretending Iran wasn't selling oil the last time it was under sanction is just as silly as pretending Iraq wasn't selling lots of illicit oil in 1997. So long as they have oil and other people want oil deals will be made and deliveries will take place.

Now for KSA itself conventional peak will be a serious issue because once they well and truly peak they will start having issues with funding their massive social network that keeps the internal peace.

[rockdoc123]

So it's production rather than reserves. No guarentee of future income. The reserves are the asset. Like selling a car company without an assembly line. The cars just magically appear. That camel won't sell. It's smells and has flies all over

why do you bother to post such nonsense? The article indicates that Wood Mac is on board with the reserves number that has been subject to audit. How many times do you have to be told that there is very little reason to doubt the Saudi reserve numbers given they have been audited by two of the largest firms? And as I said 261 billion barrels at a relatively low netback (Cost of producing a barrel in SA is ~$9/bbl and at a 30% contractor take that ends up being somewhere north of $20/bbl to Aramco...that's a value of ~$5 trillion in money of the day...slightly larger than $400 MM).

Maybe stick to the facts rather than your ill-informed and poorly thought out opinions?

[Outcast_Searcher]

So has, or has not, Saudi Arabia peaked?

Since you typed this in response to my recent post on Tesla:

I don't know, nor do I pretend to. , Based on your track record, re overall predictions about oil, prices, economics, etc. you certainly don't know.

How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?

...

Meanwhile in the real world, in years where global GDP grows, global oil production almost always grows in response to demand, and is continuing to do so. So despite what you might claim, global oil production clearly isn't declining thus far.

When the global production numbers for oil (not your constantly wrong projections) are in decline for at least 5 years AND global demand is forcing oil prices up by a lot -- then be SURE and get back to us and warn us that there MIGHT be a problem re global oil production.

Oh, and if/when that happens, expect some serious acceleration over time in the uptake of EV technology in the first world, since (whether you believe it or not) people are capable of adapting, given sufficient motivation.

[onlooker]

Well it really all adds up, MBS is being targeted by the WEST.

Ex-Pentagon Official: US Working To Replace Saudi Prince

‘Wheels in motion to replace MBS with someone compatible with West,’ ex-Pentagon analyst tells RT"

https://www.rt.com/news/443027-saudi-pr ... d-removal/

[Plantagenet]

Well it really all adds up, MBS is being targeted by the WEST.

Ex-Pentagon Official: US Working To Replace Saudi Prince

‘Wheels in motion to replace MBS with someone compatible with West,’ ex-Pentagon analyst tells RT"

https://www.rt.com/news/443027-saudi-pr ... d-removal/

You can't blame Trump and other western leaders for wanting MBS out. MBS presented himself as a liberal reformer when he became crown prince, but the Khashoggi murder was really really stupid and its just the latest bit of stupidity from Prince Muhammad.

The war in Yemen was started by MBS (with help from Obama, of course).

The shakedown of wealthy Saudis using arrest and torture was done by MBS.

AND

The failed IPO for Saudi Aramco is also part of the MBS portfolio of stupidity.

The west has seen enough. MBS has proven himself to be a dangerous idiot.

Cheers!

[ROCKMAN]

P - I have no doubt TPTB (who ever they are) in the KSA will do whatever is in their best interest is regardless of what the "West" or anyone else wants.

[Plantagenet]

P - I have no doubt TPTB (who ever they are) in the KSA will do whatever is in their best interest is regardless of what the "West" or anyone else wants.

Of course.

But the question is....who will decide what is in KSA's best interest.

Will it be the idiot Crown Prince who so far is implicated in murdering Kashoggi in Turkey, torturing and shaking down wealthy Saudis, the genocideal war in Yemen,and the failed Saudi Aramco IPO?

Or will the Saudis depose the crown prince and replace him with someone more ...... competent.....who will have entirely different plans and goals for KSA.

Cheers!.

Cheers!

[onlooker]

CIA concludes Saudi crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 0a59865dIa

[Plantagenet]

CIA concludes Saudi crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 0a59865dIa

Thats been obvious from the beginning, and its just the latest black mark on Prince Muhammad's reputation.

The Saudis seem to think they can just wait this out, and people will forget what a murdering pig Crown Prince Muhammad it ---- and Trump seems determined to abet this.

IMHO Trump would be much smarter to turn against Prince Muhammad and cut him loose. Trump has the perfect excuse to do this....KSA is now threatening to cut oil production and cause oil prices to jump to hurt the US and the west. Trump is determined to overturn everything Obama ever did, and the war in Yemen started as a collaboration between Muhammad and Obama. The US and EU are already trying to stop the war in Yemen. What a perfect opportunity for Trump to flip and come out against Prince Muhammad for murdering Kashoogi, torturing and shaking down wealthy Saudis, starting a genocidal war in Yemen in collaboration with Obama, AND threatening to cut oil production to the USA.

Cheers!

[EdwinSm]

This is one of the scenarios that could deliver a functional Peak Oil before just geographic forces would suggest.

Drone attacks have set alight two major oil facilities run by the state-owned company Aramco in Saudi Arabia, state media say.
....
A second drone attack also started fires in the Khurais oilfield to the west. The fires are now under control at both facilities, state media said.
....
The Abqaiq plant turns sour crude into sweet crude, producing up to 7 million barrels a day. Aramco says it is the world's largest "crude oil stabilisation plant".
.....
The Khurais oilfield came on line in 2009 and is the nation's second-largest after Ghawar. Khurais reportedly produces 1.5 million barrels a day with estimated recoverable oil reserves of more than 20 billion barrels.

Global oil markets are closed for the weekend so there was no immediate effect on prices.

The attacks come as Aramco prepares for a much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO),

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49699429

Will this delay the (already much delayed) IPO?

[rockdoc123]

Will this delay the (already much delayed) IPO?

maybe as long as it takes the Saudi military to turn northern Yemen into a parking lot....say a week or so.

[Cog]

The Houthi rebels, who have claimed credit for this drone attack, are supplied by Iran. Iran wants to disrupt oil production in the Middle east. Iran is behind this event and the tanker attacks.

[Plantagenet]

Iran is behind this event and the tanker attacks.

Exactly right.

Iran's oil exports are being embargoed by the US, and Iran is responding by attacking and seizing oil tankers and now aiding the Houthis to attack the oil infrastructure of the Saudis in the ME.

There are no good choices here for the US. Trump's strategy on Iran seems to have badly backfired---Iran has already restarted their nuclear weapons program and they are becoming even more militant and willing to support terrorism and the Shia factions engaged in civil wars and other conflicts around the Middle east.

Cheers!

[Cog]

I'm not sure about the backfired part. Iran has always supported terrorism groups. But this does bring it out in the open. What should the USA do? Nothing in my opinion. The sanctions are hurting them which is why Iran is striking out like a spoiled child. It's up to the Saudis of how they will respond.

In the meantime, oil prices will go up which benefits US oil producers which is a win IMO.

[rockdoc123]

The Saudis would not attack Iran under this circumstance in my opinion.
Many regimes around the world are supported by other countries including Russian and the US. The fact a country sold them weapons is not evidence enough in the court of world opinion to go to a response that would drag all sorts of countries into a war. How many questionable countries has the US supplied weapons to? They didn't make them buy them and they certainly didn't tell them what to do with them.
That being said I suspect the Saudis will up their attacks on northern Yemen....clearly that is a response that would be expected by the rest of the world. Southern Yemen would be quite happy for that to happen I suspect.