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THE Royal Dutch Shell Oil Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 09:27:54

ROCKMAN wrote:"If the US & Canada were more like Europe, the global oil consumption would be about 15% lower. And if China, Brail and India become more like Europe global oil consumption would soar...or at least prices would. And if the US and Canada consumed the same amount oil per capita as Belgium or the Netherlands global oil consumption would be the same since both EU countries consume about the same amount as the US and Canada. Which is still about half of what another EU country, Luxembourg, consumes.
We have our own oil gluttons in this country. Texas alone consumes as much oil as Russia. If Texas consumed the same oil per capita as California the nation's oil consumption would fall by 10%. Texas huh, what can you do?
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 10:24:54

onlooker wrote:...all economic activity pretty much depends on energy.


Not entirely true. Don't forget that this is also an information economy. Intellectual property and online data is far less oil-intensive than the popular image of the US economy being crap streaming out of Wal-Mart.

The greatest EROEI is inellectual property like an eBook or an indie mobile app.

Also remember that what people do for a living in the developed world involves mostly sitting at a computer and banging at a keyboard, something that can be done entirely at home without driving to work (if a corporate culture-shift happens). It's not exactly like the silent film Metropolis with people hooked up to factory machines anymore. Yes, this has been largely exported to China, but more and more, money is made on bits and bytes and not the sale of hard goods.

So I just don't see the economy as a whole being as coupled to oil as it was in, let's say, the early 70s before the computer revolution.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 11:36:40

Not really first of all what allows us to work in jobs typing on keyboards is the fact that some intensive agricultural work and processing is being done utilizing fossil fuels. As for the premise that more and more is being done using bytes well the bytes or virtual economy is under girded by the real productive economy. The stock market would not exist were it not for the productivity of the real economy , who is going to invest in a contracting world economy. Also, the manufacturing of and the running of so many computers utilizes a lot of energy. Finally, the issue is not just about quantity but quality. Meaning the really important things that need doing are still utilizing oil. Things such as the transporting of goods, mining and extraction, infrastructure construction and maintenance and agriculture not to mention getting those Americans to and from their work.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 13:42:46

". If Texas consumed the same oil per capita as California the nation's oil consumption would fall by 10%." And if CA produced as much oil as Texas motor fuel would be much cheaper. In fact if each state consumed only fuel produced from oil produced in that state US consumption would decrease much greater than 10%.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 14:15:27

onlooker wrote:what allows us to work in jobs typing on keyboards is the fact that some intensive agricultural work and processing is being done utilizing fossil fuels.


Yes, but the devil's in the details. Any good peaker will tell you we're not going to go from peak to empty overnight. The amount of fossil fuel required to keep big ag going is a lot less than you think. Food is actually a very low percentage of people's monthly expenditures, and it could be even lower if people didn't eat out for convenience as much.

onlooker wrote:The stock market would not exist were it not for the productivity of the real economy


But the real economy sits at the bottom of the pyramid and has very small margins. Compare that to the $50 billion valuation of Uber, a company that is basically an electronic middle-man for day-laborer taxi drivers. Elon Musk himself made his fortune with a pseudo-bank (PayPal). Non-physical assets, love them or hate them, is what makes the most money. Call it imaginary money if you will, but that's how the game works and it makes some people very rich and comfortable, and powers the majority of what's left of the middle-class.

onlooker wrote:the manufacturing of and the running of so many computers utilizes a lot of energy.


So what? That is like an incomplete statement here. What's your point? You want to talk about Olduvai theory and blackouts? Sure. In a longer timeframe, I'm down with you. I don't see an insta-crash that will take down the grid.

onlooker wrote:Things such as the transporting of goods, mining and extraction, infrastructure construction and maintenance and agriculture not to mention getting those Americans to and from their work.


Right, but once you prioritize key activities that can't (easily) switch to alternative-energy, and then downscale the activities that don't have to be done (like IT workers commuting to their deskjobs) and you have a massive buffer-zone.

BTW, I just looked at Chevy's current lineup and all their passenger cars except the Impala get well over 30MPG. My Mazda 3 averages 29. I'm really surprised how much extra mileage the automakers are getting without even using hybrid technology. The 2015 Cruze gets around 40MPG. That's used to require a 3-Cyl Geo Metro. So don't discount efficiency gains either.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 14:44:58

Ennui when you talk about the high returns from the stock market and imaginary money well yes I do not dispute that. However, this wheeling and dealing is enabled by the real productive economy. Paypal relies on real goods being exchanged and paid for. Uber relies on cars, highways and jobs. So on and on. The speculation and rampant almost gambling going on in the stock market really lies outside the purview of the normal economy and can be viewed as an aberration in so much as the main contributors and winners are the rich. Yet without a true productive economy what would people invest in or gamble oops speculate on? On whether it will rain tomorrow? Agriculture is quite energy intensive- https://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/ ... 7&secNum=8. Also, I am not getting your last point it is as if your reneging on the part of economy that is not using so much oil well then I am not sure what your argument is as we are left with the needed activities that do utilize quite a bit of oil. As for efficiency well I refer you to Jevons Paradox that efficiency will translate to other uses and thus more production and consumption.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby tita » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 17:35:16

ennui2 wrote:Not entirely true. Don't forget that this is also an information economy. Intellectual property and online data is far less oil-intensive than the popular image of the US economy being crap streaming out of Wal-Mart.

I don't deny that IT is part of the growth. Of course, I use computer everyday, and its versatility is just wonderful. Unfortunately, it doesn't grow food, dig holes or transport goods (lesson of my father, farmer). It's something at the top of the system and require everything under. We may all live behind our screens, at home, with everything automated (a dystopia from episode 2 of Black Mirror), but we still need to feed this automated system with enough energy! And we don't go in this direction. In facts, we travel always more!

The greatest EROEI is inellectual property like an eBook or an indie mobile app.

No, the greatest EROEI is a book. A thousand years functionning without recharging it. Unbeatable.
Also remember that what people do for a living in the developed world involves mostly sitting at a computer and banging at a keyboard, something that can be done entirely at home without driving to work (if a corporate culture-shift happens). It's not exactly like the silent film Metropolis with people hooked up to factory machines anymore. Yes, this has been largely exported to China, but more and more, money is made on bits and bytes and not the sale of hard goods.

So I just don't see the economy as a whole being as coupled to oil as it was in, let's say, the early 70s before the computer revolution.

No, information economy is just as tangled to energy as the hard economy. Not only because it needs energy to work. But it requires energy to build the machines (tablet, handys, TV, printers, etc.), and they are used to buy stuff easily! Do you really think people desire to win a free app for their handy on the "Wheel of Fortune"? No, they want a car...
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 03:43:19

kublikhan wrote:None of this changes the fact that today developing countries today have growing middle classes, rising wealth, rising oil consumption, and yet healthy levels of debt. I don't doubt we will see financial crashes going forward. But IMHO, it is the developed nations that appear more vulnerable at the moment.


That's because it's a small global middle class, and ironically given the articles you shared, it's just getting started.

Go figure where the additional earths will be needed to support it during the next few decades.


Walking a dog in an SUV was just an extreme example of the kind of waste I was talking about. A more widespread example of reducing oil consumption would be something like trading in a truck or SUV for a fuel efficient honda or toyota. Or even mass transit/bicycling/walking. My point was that we can still enjoy middle class conveniences while at the same time reducing our oil consumption. As another poster pointed out, just lowering US & Candian usage down to European levels alone would reduce global oil consumption by 15%.


A fuel-efficient Japanese car is a luxury item in most parts of the world.

And how much oil consumption do you think will be needed for the rest of the world to reach European levels?

And by all means, don't limit the discussion to oil.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 03:45:52

ennui2 wrote:
onlooker wrote:Their is not going to be enough cheap accessible oil for everyone. So we are seeing the beginning of that.


No. We're seeing a glut right now.


In 2006, it was estimated that by 2015 consumption would reach around 115 Mb/d.

There's no glut due to excess production, especially given the fact that we're now resorting to unconventional oil. What we're seeing is the threat of another global financial crash.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 03:47:41

ennui2 wrote:
onlooker wrote:...all economic activity pretty much depends on energy.


Not entirely true. Don't forget that this is also an information economy. Intellectual property and online data is far less oil-intensive than the popular image of the US economy being crap streaming out of Wal-Mart.

The greatest EROEI is inellectual property like an eBook or an indie mobile app.

Also remember that what people do for a living in the developed world involves mostly sitting at a computer and banging at a keyboard, something that can be done entirely at home without driving to work (if a corporate culture-shift happens). It's not exactly like the silent film Metropolis with people hooked up to factory machines anymore. Yes, this has been largely exported to China, but more and more, money is made on bits and bytes and not the sale of hard goods.

So I just don't see the economy as a whole being as coupled to oil as it was in, let's say, the early 70s before the computer revolution.


That information, not to mention what are essentially numbers in hard drives, can only have value given increasing amounts of energy and material resources needed for a growing global middle class.

And those two sources are ultimately affected by energy returns.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 03:53:45

ennui2 wrote:Yes, but the devil's in the details. Any good peaker will tell you we're not going to go from peak to empty overnight. The amount of fossil fuel required to keep big ag going is a lot less than you think. Food is actually a very low percentage of people's monthly expenditures, and it could be even lower if people didn't eat out for convenience as much.


The problem is not going empty overnight, but production not meeting demand, and eventually going the other way.

The global economy does not consist only of agriculture. In fact, even the latter is dependent on mining and manufacturing.

Food is actually a significant percentage of expenditures for most of the global economy, together with other basic needs. That's because most earn only a few dollars a day.


But the real economy sits at the bottom of the pyramid and has very small margins. Compare that to the $50 billion valuation of Uber, a company that is basically an electronic middle-man for day-laborer taxi drivers. Elon Musk himself made his fortune with a pseudo-bank (PayPal). Non-physical assets, love them or hate them, is what makes the most money. Call it imaginary money if you will, but that's how the game works and it makes some people very rich and comfortable, and powers the majority of what's left of the middle-class.



Upside-down pyramids do not balance well.


So what? That is like an incomplete statement here. What's your point? You want to talk about Olduvai theory and blackouts? Sure. In a longer timeframe, I'm down with you. I don't see an insta-crash that will take down the grid.



Only if "the grid" is not complex and the only problem we face is peak oil.


Right, but once you prioritize key activities that can't (easily) switch to alternative-energy, and then downscale the activities that don't have to be done (like IT workers commuting to their deskjobs) and you have a massive buffer-zone.

BTW, I just looked at Chevy's current lineup and all their passenger cars except the Impala get well over 30MPG. My Mazda 3 averages 29. I'm really surprised how much extra mileage the automakers are getting without even using hybrid technology. The 2015 Cruze gets around 40MPG. That's used to require a 3-Cyl Geo Metro. So don't discount efficiency gains either.


Doesn't happen in a world where markets involve price mechanisms.

The irony is that the last paragraph of your post proves that, unless one can prove that passenger vehicles for personal travel should be considered as part of critical priorities.
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Re: Shell Abandons Arctic

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 18:14:33

I've consulted for ExxonMobil off the African coast. Whatever else anyone thinks about how XOM does business I've never worked with a more safety conscious company. And while I've never worked for Chinese company that drilled offshore I have talked to more then a few expats that have. IMHO the danger of a major Arctic environmental nightmare may be taking a huge increase if ExxonMobil is replaced by the Chinese as a result of the sanctions. As they say be careful what you wish for...you might get it. In this case wishing that XOM doesn't get to drill in Russia's section of the Arctic:

Reuters- Russia's Rosneft is in talks with Chinese companies to allow them to take part in its offshore Arctic projects, the RIA news agency quoted Russian Deputy Energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky as saying on Monday. Rosneft has suspended drilling in Arctic Kara Sea in 2014 after U.S. ExxonMobil withdrew from the project because of Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.
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Shell to exit up to 10 countries after BG merger

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 07 Jun 2016, 08:38:47

Shell to exit up to 10 countries after BG deal

Royal Dutch Shell will exit oil and gas operations in up to 10 countries in a drive to deepen cost cuts and narrow its focus following its $54 billion acquisition of BG Group.

Presenting its strategy following the close of that deal in February, the Anglo-Dutch company outlined plans to target annual spending of $25 billion to $30 billion until the end of the decade.

It lowered its planned 2016 capex to $29 billion in a third cut from an initial $35 billion.

Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said the company would focus its short-term growth on deepwater projects in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico.

Deepwater production could double to some 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020, the company said.
... Our strategy should lead to a simpler company ...

"Our strategy should lead to a simpler company, with fundamentally advantaged positions, and fundamentally lower capital intensity. Today, we are setting out a transformation of Shell," van Beurden said.

Shell said savings and asset sales could increase returns on capital employed to shareholders to around 10 percent by the end of the decade, assuming an oil price of $60 per barrel, up from around 8 percent between 2013 and 2015.

A main source for cost savings, including 12,500 job cuts this year, will come from significant overlaps in operations in areas including Australia, Brazil and the North Sea.

Shell will also expand its chemicals business, particularly in the United States and China.

It also gave the go-ahead for investing in a new cracker and polyethylene plant in the United States, one of a handful of investment decisions it will make this year as it grapples with the sharp drop in oil prices over the past two years.

Shell will slow its new investment in its integrated gas business, which includes its liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations, which has "reached critical mass following the BG acquisition".

The merger makes Shell the world's second biggest international oil company behind Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and the top LNG trader.

In the long term, the company said it would target shale oil and gas production in North America and Argentina as well as renewable energies hydrogen, solar and wind.

Shell plans to sell $30 billion worth of assets around the world by around 2018 and quit operations in 5 to 10 countries to reduce its balance sheet gearing which soared to 26 percent following the BG deal. It also has announced it plans to implement a share buyback program.

It did not say which countries it might exit. Reuters has reported that Shell plans to sell its assets in Gabon.

Shell targets $6-$8 billion in sales in 2016. Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry said the company expects to make at least $3 billion mainly from downstream disposals this year as refining, infrastructure and retail are more immune to oil price fluctuations.

However, sales of oil and gas production assets have dropped through the downturn amid high oil price volatility.
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Re: THE Royal Dutch Shell Oil Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 26 Dec 2016, 13:24:34

Dec 23, 2016

4:35 PM EST

Shell Completes $1.4 Billion Showa Stake Sale

 The one-third stake sale was initially expected in October or November.

Mariko Iwasaki
Dec 19, 2016 5:40 AM EST

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) completed the sale of its one-third stake in Showa Shell Sekiyu to Idemitsu Kosan (IDKOY) following delayed Japanese authority approval, completing a move that would diminish its century-old relationship with the Japanese oil refiner.

Shell sold 31.2% of its stake in the Tokyo-based Showa Shell for ¥158.9 billion ($1.35 billion), lowering the sale from the initially planned 33.24%. The sale was completed upon approval from the Japan Fair Trade Commission nearly five months after the sale was agreed in July. RDS will retain a 3.7% stake in Showa Shell.

Royal Dutch shares edged up 0.24% to 2,297 pence at 10:40 GMT.

The Tokyo-based Idemitsu Kosan, which will become Showa Shell's leading shareholder, is pursuing a merger between the two that would create Japan's second-largest oil refiner with a combined market cap of around ¥940 billion.

To realize the merger, Idemitsu will need to persuade its own founding family, who has opposed to the plan.

Japanese refiners are under pressure to consolidate as demand for petroleum products on the island nation declines due to the adoption of alternative energy sources, more efficient cars and a shrinking population.

JX Holdings is Japan's biggest petroleum conglomerate valued at ¥1.26 trillion. The company is planning a merger with TonenGeneral Sekiyu.


https://www.thestreet.com/story/1393040 ... -sale.html
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Re: THE Royal Dutch Shell Oil Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 26 Dec 2016, 16:47:58

So who feels sorry for Shell corpoeation deciding to divest themselves of a Japanese company? Wasn't the whole company originally created to exploit resources in Indonesia before the North Sea deposits were discovered?
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Shell Reportedly To Slash Oil and Gas Production Costs To Fo

Unread postby BrianC » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 10:48:04

Shell Reportedly To Slash Oil and Gas Production Costs To Focus More On Renewables (www.cbc.ca) 44
Posted by BeauHD on Tuesday September 22, 2020 @10:02PM from the energy-transition dept.
An anonymous reader quotes a report from CBC.ca:
Royal Dutch Shell is looking to slash up to 40 percent off the cost of producing oil and gas in a major drive to save cash so it can overhaul its business and focus more on renewable energy and power markets, sources told Reuters. Shell's new cost-cutting review, known internally as Project Reshape and expected to be completed this year, will affect its three main divisions and any savings will come on top of a $4 billion US target set in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Shell now wants to focus its oil and gas production on a few key hubs, including the Gulf of Mexico, Nigeria and the North Sea, the sources said. The company's integrated gas division, which runs Shell's liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations as well as some gas production, is also looking at deep cuts, the sources said. For downstream, the review is focusing on cutting costs from Shell's network of 45,000 service stations -- the world's biggest which is seen as one its "most high-value activities" and is expected to play a pivotal role in the transition, two more sources involved with the review told Reuters.

The review, which company sources say is the largest in Shell's modern history, is expected to be completed by the end of 2020 when Shell wants to announce a major restructuring. It will hold an investor day in February 2021. Teams in Shell's three main divisions are also studying how to reshape the business by cutting thousands of jobs and removing management layers both to save money and create a nimbler company as it prepares to restructure, the sources said. Besides cutting costs at its downstream retail business, Shell is pressing ahead with plans to reduce the number of its oil refineries to 10 from 17 last year. It has already agreed to sell three. The review of refining operations also includes finding ways to sharply increase the production of low-carbon fuels such as biofuels, chemicals and lubricants. That could be done by using low-carbon raw materials such as cooking oil, one source said.
"We had a great model but is it right for the future? There will be differences, this is not just about structure but culture and about the type of company we want to be," said a senior Shell source, who declined to be named.

https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/20/ ... renewables
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