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The Real Peak oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 01:24:29

John_A wrote:Tell you what. URTeC abstracts for the August 2014 meeting in Denver are due tomorrow. Mine goes in this afternoon. Put one of your own in ...
Well, you had a head start, but maybe I'll stay up late and do "Hydrocarbons from Titan - ERoEI Considerations".
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby John_A » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 13:08:54

step back wrote:
John_A wrote:Tell you what. URTeC abstracts for the August 2014 meeting in Denver are due tomorrow. Mine goes in this afternoon.


See you there? As usual? :P

Image


Lunch at Bubba Gumps. On me.

PS: I've tried this before...even offering to pick up the tab, and for some reason....website denizens just don't seem able to make it, not just to lunch, but in the doors of the conference itself. Funny how that works....must have something to do with the "too much information" requirement. :lol:
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby John_A » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 13:11:39

pstarr wrote:Wow John, that's impressive and we are excited for you accomplishment. Why not share your abstract with us? We could peer-review it.


No. You couldn't.

I should also correct your impression that this is an accomplishment. It isn't. It's an abstract for a presentation in the appropriate venue for those who discuss the geology, engineering and economics of resource development. During the course of a year there are professional meetings that folks go to, to learn, ask questions, etc etc.

If you have an interest in such things, they are great learning environments. I'm surprised more peak oil folks don't show up. In any given year my travel plans hit at least a few of them.

This year it is learning about the Arctic:

http://www.arctictechnologyconference.org/

numerical modeling:

http://www.spe.org/events/14fus1/

AAPG of course:

http://www.aapg.org/houston2014/

have to keep an eye on what the state geologists are up to as well:

http://www.stategeologists.org/upcoming_meetings.php

and then URTeC in August

http://www.urtec.org/

Pick one. Sign up. Learn something. Come back and be amazed at how some peak oil claims look under the bright light of knowledge.
Last edited by John_A on Thu 12 Dec 2013, 14:33:49, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby John_A » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 13:17:33

Keith_McClary wrote:
John_A wrote:Tell you what. URTeC abstracts for the August 2014 meeting in Denver are due tomorrow. Mine goes in this afternoon. Put one of your own in ...
Well, you had a head start, but maybe I'll stay up late and do "Hydrocarbons from Titan - ERoEI Considerations".


As has already been pointed out, EROEI has no value in determining when, if, or how conventional or unconventional resources are developed. So no, conferences like this being on topics of value, I do not expect to see anything related to net energy.

But when the technical program is released, I will be happy to check to see if someone (a student perhaps?) has given it a good old fashioned try, perhaps just as a joke topic?
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby John_A » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 13:21:11

step back wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:... maybe I'll stay up late and do [an abstract entitled] "Hydrocarbons from Titan - ERoEI Considerations".

Good one. :lol: [smilie=5saturn.gif] [smilie=blob8.gif] [smilie=walk.gif]

Now we are truly moving down that infinite "Resource Pyramid"

Image


The bottom of that pyramid is already being discussed by the likes of the folks who study such things. 33rd Annual Oil Shale Symposium at Colorado School of Mines back in October. You must have missed it, because they discussed the bottom of your resource pyramid example. But no, no Saturn methane yet. You must have been busy, goodness knows nobody actually needs to understand future resources to intelligently discuss them, you might be accused of having too much information if you dare to learn stuff!
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby John_A » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 14:11:10

pstarr wrote:Odd thing John. You posted an old version of the submission invitation URTeC abstracts for the August 2014 meeting in Denver rather than this, the current updated version. I can't figure out where the old one is parked, seems hidden on the website. That cool. You must be an insider there. Are those the guys who employ you?


Odd to you maybe, seems like you are over thinking it.

I went here yesterday:

http://www.urtec.org/conference/call-for-papers

and clicked on the button directly below the "Call for Papers Open: Deadline 12 December 2013". Follow instructions from there. Feel free to put in a net energy paper and show everyone how it is done.

URTeC is a mixed professional conference, and no, I don't have a job in organizing conferences.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 14:14:29

John_A wrote:
pstarr wrote:Wow John, that's impressive and we are excited for you accomplishment. Why not share your abstract with us? We could peer-review it.


No. You couldn't.
Conference talks are not "peer reviewed" (most of those thousands of LENR "scientific papers" are just conference reports).

These conferences are industry sponsored trade shows and the "technical reports" hype proprietary corporate technologies. URTeC has this gentle "please don't be too blatant" message:
A word about commercialism
URTeC has a stated policy against use of commercial trade names, company names, or language that is commercial in tone in the paper title, text or slides. Use of such terms will result in careful scrutiny by the Program Committee in evaluating abstracts, and the presence of commercialism in the paper may result in it being withdrawn from the conference program.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 14:26:07

John_A wrote:Now we are truly moving down that infinite "Resource Pyramid". ... The bottom of that pyramid is already being discussed by the likes of the folks who study such things. 33rd Annual Oil Shale Symposium at Colorado School of Mines back in October. You must have missed it, because they discussed the bottom of your resource pyramid example. But no, no Saturn methane yet.
Shouldn't that be "bottomless"?

Do they get into asteroid mining?
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby John_A » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 14:42:50

Keith_McClary wrote:
John_A wrote:
pstarr wrote:Wow John, that's impressive and we are excited for you accomplishment. Why not share your abstract with us? We could peer-review it.


No. You couldn't.
Conference talks are not "peer reviewed" (most of those thousands of LENR "scientific papers" are just conference reports).


Presentations at national conferences are meant to encourage discussion, debate with the author, helps one sort the wheat from the chaff and look up their publications, etc etc. You are correct, they aren't scientific papers, and it can be great fun watching the folks interact.

Keith_McClary wrote:These conferences are industry sponsored trade shows and the "technical reports" hype proprietary corporate technologies.


Yes...when the USGS shows off the results of their resource work, it is hyping proprietary technology of...studying stuff. When the EIA explain the inner workings of their resource models, they are hyping...how models not hyping anything work. When academics get up and present peak oil based reports (Hall and Hughes were both at GSA in October) they were..HYPING...peak oil stuff? Rock eval is not a corporate technology, lab results on the geochem work of source rock origin of oils isn't proprietary when you announce them to the world.

Sure the consultants are there as well, and they also present the results of various amounts of work and study they've done.

keith_mcClary wrote:URTeC has this gentle "please don't be too blatant" message:
A word about commercialism
URTeC has a stated policy against use of commercial trade names, company names, or language that is commercial in tone in the paper title, text or slides. Use of such terms will result in careful scrutiny by the Program Committee in evaluating abstracts, and the presence of commercialism in the paper may result in it being withdrawn from the conference program.


Amazing thing...they specifically forbid the very thing you appear to be claiming they do. You base your opinion on attending how many SPE/AAPG/SEG national conferences? Across how many decades? And hopefully more than just this century, right?
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby John_A » Thu 12 Dec 2013, 15:16:17

Keith_McClary wrote:
John_A wrote:Now we are truly moving down that infinite "Resource Pyramid". ... The bottom of that pyramid is already being discussed by the likes of the folks who study such things. 33rd Annual Oil Shale Symposium at Colorado School of Mines back in October. You must have missed it, because they discussed the bottom of your resource pyramid example. But no, no Saturn methane yet.
Shouldn't that be "bottomless"?


Only if the goal is to set up a strawman to attack. Certainly within a finite system there is finite stuff. The entire "oil forever" i.e. bottomless nonsense is just a strawman thrown out to try and change the topic, particularly about the size of the base of that pyramid.

It got so bad for JD he had to put up a disclaimer to keep folks from employing it (discussing the topic honestly being too difficult as oil production kept...going...up).

JDs Website wrote:Debunking peak oil hype with facts and figures, and exposing the agendas behind peak oil.
DISCLAIMER FOR IDIOTS: This site officially accepts that oil is finite, and will peak someday.
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

Keith_McClary wrote:Do they get into asteroid mining?


I didn't see that on the resource pyramid.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 19:40:17

MD wrote:"Five years ago we got the energy crisis wrong."

"But while our understanding of the energy crisis five years ago may have been flawed (or more correctly, less than prescient), our appreciation that there was a crisis was not. We just misunderstood its details.

The real energy crisis is neither a geologic crisis nor a strategic crisis. The real energy crisis is a slow growth crisis. Although the oil industry has figured out a way technologically to recover large quantities of unconventional oil, the cost of doing so will be staggering. Conventional oil, which may cost $4-6 per barrel to lift out of a Saudi Arabian well, may cost more than $100 per barrel to lift out deep water deposits off the coast of Brazil. And the lift costs will only go up, as each barrel of oil becomes progressively more difficult and expensive to recover.

The result is a hyper-inflation of energy costs, as the fixed, structural cost of petroleum spirals ever higher. As more and more resources must be invested in petroleum production, fewer and fewer resources will be available for other productive parts of the economy."

Really? Five years ago YOU got it wrong, along with the rest of the world that seemed to find it impossible to get past the "we're running out" strawman. Today you've written a very nice definition of peak oi. Welcome to the club!


Here we are another five years later and the naysayers are still convinced we can have infinite growth on a finite world.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 23:39:31

"Conventional oil, which may cost $4-6 per barrel to lift out of a Saudi Arabian well, may cost more than $100 per barrel to lift out deep water deposits off the coast of Brazil." The GREAT news: someone is finally using the correct terminology: lifting cost as compared to "production cost". IOW what it cost per bbl to produce existing wells. The BAD news: he has no f*cking idea what he's talking about. LOL. But really. I've explained it in great detail before that while Deep Water operations are truly very expensive when you work in the very high volumes of oil produced the PER BBL cost is rather low. Often much lower then low rate onshore producer.

If you don't understand go search the web. I've grown tired of repeating for newbies.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 09:46:31

As we get further away from 2015 we will gain evidence whether it really was world peak.

The thing is, how to define peak oil? Peak light sweet? Peak conventional? Peak all liquids? If we count tar sands and Extra Heavy there is still a huge growth potential before those sources peak.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 13:39:54

The thing is, how to define peak oil? Peak light sweet? Peak conventional? Peak all liquids? If we count tar sands and Extra Heavy there is still a huge growth potential before those sources peak.


Given that to a large extent all of these are somewhat fungible I'm not sure it makes any sense to separate them. If you look back only at conventional oil E&P history it also went through a long transition of ever changing reservoir and traps ....the first were easily recognized as surface anticlinal expressions of underlying structural traps (Spindletop, Ghawar etc), continue on and easily identifiable shallow structures were drilled and produced (eg. Turner Valley, Wind River basin (Dallas Dome) etc). Then with development of better seismic large reef structures were drilled (eg Leduc Redwater trend) as were very large stratigraphic traps. And as time progresses and seismic quality improved more subtle traps were drilled and produced. So I think it is just a gradual progression from easiest to most difficult we have seen. Obviously if you want to dig down and characterize each play type you would come up with separate "peaks" just as you would on and individual field or an individual well basis. So it's a bit of "lumping" versus "splitting". Given the reason we ask the question of Peak in the first place is that we are concerned about the products supplied by oil we should probably be lumping together everything that in some way contibutes to that supply and this for all intents and purpose could include products that help the process along (eg. condensates that lighten heavier fractions for transport). The details become a bit more confusing at the refinery level but in the end it is how much useable product is coming out.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 14:14:34

Doc - even more then the fungibility issue there's a more important factor: no consumer buys conventional oil, unconventional oil, heavy oil, etc. As such the distinction matters not at all to them. They buy refinery products at some price. As long as there's X amount of any of those commodities at a price that consumer can pay the origin of the oil is not relevent. And the cost to develop, produce and refine that oil is also not relevant TO THE CONSUMER. Of course those factors are critical to the industry. But that isn't the important issue issue with PO. It's the effect on the economy...local and global.

The world is currently producing and consuming more refined oil products then ever before at a price considerably lower then just 3 years. And because of those lower oil prices the EROEI of any new projects will be significantly higher then those developed 3 years to compensate for the lower monetary value of the energy return.

By focusing on the bottom line, the end results seen by the economies, eliminates the need to break down the details with respect to predicting the future. Of course with respect to a time frame of serveral decades it does make a difference. OTOH neither the consumers, the fossil fuel industry nor the govts have ever planned on the basis of such an extended period and none show the least bit interested in doing so today.

In reality it's PP that is the critical factor...Peak Product. And just like when PO (any or all liquid hydrocarbons) is reached "oil" prices may be higher or lower the prices of refinery products may be higher or lower. Can't predict the future but even with the amount of unconventional oil still in the ground we may actually be at or near PP today.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby aldente » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 04:37:31

MD, it is not an easy concept - why would we be posting here otherwise..

Carl Gauss at the end 1700's did nail "statistics" with the utmost simple concept of the mathematical bell curve.

Since Peak Oil did not happen in 2005 (at the latest) abiotic oil took over - meaning neither is there a shortage, nor a limit.

This opens the door to way more spooky observations - such as - there is no space -or space is liquid...fluid...
other thoughts can creep in which make ancient aliens or wishful alien intervention obsolete...

welcome to our NEW universe - it is upon YOU - reading this - to forming it!

Are you up to the task? Skip the NeoCortex and go straight for pictographs for instance

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