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THE Price of Crude pt 14

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 13:55:56

Not just the 44 million that are retired. There are 15 million disabled and another 15 million in college or job training and about 13 million providing care for someone at home. Apparently there are now few stay at home spouses other then those giving care.
At any rate few of these people want or can accept a job with their current conditions.


I suspect there is also a fair number of lazy ass millennials living in their parent's basements who are working age but have no intention of seeking gainful employment and that would skew the numbers somewhat. Disraeli said appropriately....lies, damned lies and statistics are the three kinds of lies.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 14:09:35

The unemployment rate for the USA is at a 49 year low. If you want to work there is work. In the past two years since I've retired, I've had multiple offers from two different companies to return to work. They are busy. Just not interested.

The FED considers anything below 4.5% as full employment. We are at 3.7%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... O91TZ?il=0
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 15 Dec 2018, 08:07:44

Well, the OPEC meeting and announcement of cuts did not cause an increase in prices. It does appear that it may have stabilized prices around $51. Stocks at Cushing are increasing rapidly and if OPEC has a export decrease than we should see stocks at Cushing stabilize. I think traders are just watching and waiting right now. Texas rig count has stabilized since June but the rest of the US and Canada is down since then.

China bought a lot of oil in November and their PMI is looking okay. Not really seeing anything in global demand that should cause this price collapse to continue.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 10:26:09

GoghGoner wrote:Well, the OPEC meeting and announcement of cuts did not cause an increase in prices. It does appear that it may have stabilized prices around $51. Stocks at Cushing are increasing rapidly and if OPEC has a export decrease than we should see stocks at Cushing stabilize. I think traders are just watching and waiting right now. Texas rig count has stabilized since June but the rest of the US and Canada is down since then.

China bought a lot of oil in November and their PMI is looking okay. Not really seeing anything in global demand that should cause this price collapse to continue.


Unlike the internet the physical world experiences weeks or months of lag between a decision and its effects.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 12:50:31

"It does appear that it may have stabilized prices around $51." And always good to remind folks that the price WTI sells for DID NOT STABILIZE at $51/bbl. The price oil future speculators are bidding for 30 day WTI future contracts stabilized at $51/bbl. That bid price could radically change in less then an hour subject to a Tweet from our POTUS or a press release from the KSA. And neither of which is at all predictatble. IOW that $51/bbl is not as much subject to real world supply and demand economics as it is to GUESSES made by investment speculators. Speculators that can change their expectation up or down with information that might have no relevance to the physical oil market dynamics.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 22:07:57

I paid $2.199 a gallon for gas in Chicopee Mass. this evening. I can deal with that for a while. :)
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 17 Dec 2018, 13:16:45

Rock, the correlation between price of WTI quoted everywhere and what vt just paid of gasoline in MA is very strong. Yes, spot oil prices vary considerably but the rise and fall of WTI is consistent with the rise and fall of product prices.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby tita » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 09:04:07

BTW, the price of "WTI future oil contracts formed on the speculation of investors that bet on it based on informations about economic prospects, oil stocks, oil production, geopolitical stuff and so on" just went below $50, its lowest value since september 2017.

As the price of gasoline is also at its lowest value since august 2017, I think it's fair to say that the WTI price, however it is made of, reflects the state of the oil market.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 15:17:42

WTI, down to a little over $47
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 15:30:18

onlooker wrote:WTI, down to a little over $47


I can practically feel the tension and desire in your post. :-D


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Last edited by Cog on Tue 18 Dec 2018, 15:34:09, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 15:35:14

Its not consistent at all with the average price of crude for 2018 that you ETP'ers predicted.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 15:37:18

it is gonna be close Cog!
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 16:20:49

That is why people wager. The anticipation of the payoff or the loss.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 16:42:45

Cog wrote:That is why people wager. The anticipation of the payoff or the loss.

It could hinge now on whether the FED decides to raise interest rates or not on Wednesday.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 22:36:19

pstarr wrote:I'd call that spot on.


Hardly. The yearly average is off to such an extent that prices would have had to go way into the negative for Short to have won his bet. ETP is dead.

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby GoghGoner » Thu 20 Dec 2018, 06:49:28

The midland spot price is below $40. Those Texas shale drillers are going to be hurting really bad on their financials if this continues.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DutzoXHW0AEv63o.jpg:large
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 24 Dec 2018, 15:14:24

My esteemed Mr. Cog are you sweating now? It is down to $42
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Mon 24 Dec 2018, 16:17:37

onlooker wrote:My esteemed Mr. Cog are you sweating now? It is down to $42


Close only counts in hand grenades and nuclear warfare. Let's just say the price of oil has my full attention now. ;)
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 26 Dec 2018, 13:30:36

GoghGoner wrote:The midland spot price is below $40. Those Texas shale drillers are going to be hurting really bad on their financials if this continues.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DutzoXHW0AEv63o.jpg:large

There is a reason that over time, supply and demand for virtually ALL commodities tends to stay in rough balance. Prices send signals to producers and consumers, to incent them to produce and consume in some relatively sane proportion compared to availability.

It's not magic, and it's a far from perfect system, especially in the short term, but overall it works very well indeed.

Pretending that catastrophe will ensure every time there is a significant blip is just silly. Surely there are more productive hobbies for people to have. (I am presuming that decades of predictions that are horrible the vast majority of the time, re doom, aren't overly productive, even if they are entertaining for folks who enjoy dreaming of the zombie hordes -- and even imagining that they'll prosper vs. the zombies).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Wed 26 Dec 2018, 14:11:48

Oh the noes. WTI OIL up 7% to 45.75. Bad news for shorty.
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