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THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 11 Apr 2023, 23:58:50

theluckycountry wrote:Buying and holding gold is not like having money in a bank


Its exactly like having money in a bank if you keep your gold in your safe deposit box at the bank.

theluckycountry wrote:The safest place to hold gold is actually in a creative hole in the ground


Couldn't someone just follow you when you go to your creative hold in the ground filled with gold and then come back later and steal the gold? Or might someone even force you to take them to your creative hole in the ground filled with gold?

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Personally I prefer to keep my gold in my safe deposit box at the bank...... that way the gold doesn't get dirty like it would down in a hole in the ground.

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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 12 Apr 2023, 01:56:37

Plantagenet wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:Buying and holding gold is not like having money in a bank


Its exactly like having money in a bank if you keep your gold in your safe deposit box at the bank.


That's the last place I would keep it. If a bank gets into trouble and closes it doors, they don't have special opening hours for deposit box hodlers. And if the Government decides on a bail in, boxes are the first place they look, re: 1933

here are an estimated 25 million safe deposit boxes in America, and they operate in a legal gray zone within the highly regulated banking industry. There are no federal laws governing the boxes; no rules require banks to compensate customers if their property is stolen or destroyed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/busi ... theft.html

But don't worry, the accidental drilling and theft of contents is rare...
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 12 Apr 2023, 21:24:28

theluckycountry wrote: If a bank gets into trouble and closes it doors, they don't have special opening hours for deposit box hodlers.[sic]


Actually they do.

Personally I like using the safe deposit box at my bank. If I need to get in there I just contact my personal banker and he lets me into the huge main bank vault and then steps discretely away. The armed guard also waits outside. I'm alone in the bank vault to conduct my business, and when I leave the huge bank vault door....six inches of steel.... is shut again. It sure as heck looks secure.

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I just contact my personal banker and he lets me into the huge main bank vault and then steps discretely away. I'm alone to conduct my business, and when I leave the huge bank vault door....six inches of steel.... is shut again. It sure as heck looks secure.

AND In the US when a bank closes due to a bank run it is taken over by the FDIC and sold to another bank, who then re-opens it. Voila---the doors are open and the safe deposit boxes are now accessible again.

In contrast, it seems to me that if somebody else somehow finds your secret hole with your gold in it in your backyard and takes the gold then it's just gone.....forever.

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Personally, I think a thick steel bank vault is more secure then a hole in the dirt, but I understand you feel differently.

Thats OK.

Everybody sees things differently.

Good luck to you!

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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 13 Apr 2023, 08:07:44

Nothing Is Safe From the IRS

When it comes to collecting taxes, the law tends to favor the IRS, and provide them with mechanisms to force tax delinquents to pay. Not much is safe from the taxman.

However, when a court order is issued to open or seize the contents of a safe deposit box, the order must specify exactly what is to be seized. If cash is stored in the safe deposit box, this can be seized directly. If valuable items are being stored, their value may be assessed, and strategically sold off to satisfy the debt.
How Safe Is Your Safe Deposit Box?
Unlike normal deposit, checking or savings accounts at a bank, safe deposit boxes are not FDIC insured
https://www.findlaw.com/legalblogs/law- ... posit-box/

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Would they do that again? If Biden thought he needed to bolster the Federal gold reserves he might.
Bottom line, if you don't hold it, you don't own it.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 13 Apr 2023, 12:32:39

theluckycountry wrote:"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Bottom line, if you don't hold it, you don't own it.


Yes...so useful. Have you ever bought anything with your gold Lucky? Grabbed a couple coins or bars, and traded for a motorcycle or car or something? Or does your mechanism of "holding it" interfere with its general use?

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 13 Apr 2023, 20:46:25

Russia and China have been in cahoots for quite some time now. Not only have both countries developed a payment network to rival SWIFT, they are also looking to be rid of the US Dollar. A new alliance between both nations will focus on a gold-backed trading standard. Bypassing the US Dollar is quite an ambitious goal, but it is not entirely impossible either.

A few weeks ago, the Russian Central Bank opened an overseas office in Beijing. That is quite a significant development, to say the least. A stronger Beijing-Moscow alliance can create a major break-up in the financial sector, that much is certain. Strengthening economic ties between both nations is nothing new, yet it goes to show bigger things are at play behind the scenes. There is even a rumor of how both countries want to introduce a new gold-backed trading standard.

Anyone who has followed the history of the US Dollar will know the currency was decoupled from the gold standard. Although financial experts have claimed these “mistakes” should be undone, protests have fallen on deaf ears so far. This new alliance between China and Russia aims to take advantage of the weakened state of the US Dollar. In fact, it becomes possible to bypass the world’s leading currency altogether. Doing so will have catastrophic consequences for the global financial ecosystem.


https://www.newsbtc.com/news/china-russ ... -standard/

"catastrophic consequences for the global financial ecosystem" That is basically the main reason for owning bullion grade Gold in today's world. But let's not call it bullion grade, that's taxable. A private "coin" collection isn't, and coins are the choice of the wise investor.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 14 Apr 2023, 00:13:27

theluckycountry wrote:Russia and China have been in cahoots for quite some time now. Not only have both countries developed a payment network to rival SWIFT, they are also looking to be rid of the US Dollar. A new alliance between both nations will focus on a gold-backed trading standard.
https://www.newsbtc.com/news/china-russ ... -standard/



Oh really?

I've seen no evidence that China has any interest in a "gold-backed" currency. The CCP is much more interested in devaluing and manipulating its FIAT currency called the YUAN.

All the news reports I've seen say China wants its trading partners to use the Chinese Yuan.....which is definitely NOT gold backed and does NOT hold its value. The CCP has devalued the Yuan on several past occasions and most likely will do so again in the future.

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[i]The Chinese Yuan is NOT gold backed and the CCP has a nasty habit of manipulating the YUAN by devaluing this FIAT currency

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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 16 Apr 2023, 17:15:47

A good video on the key investments "The Rich Are Hoarding Farmland, Water & Gold"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bIqf8uUotE
the discourse on Gold begins at 8:50
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 19 Apr 2023, 20:41:34

I recall an article I read a few years back about how India is a giant gold vacuum because in traditional marriages they dress the bride up with as much gold jewelry as they can afford as her dowry. If something happens to her spouse she is to use the gold for self support while her husbands children inherit all other wealth the couple had. Sons get the property and daughters get dowry shares for their own future weddings.
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One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 20 Apr 2023, 18:43:54

The one analyst I follow seems to think Russia has a large amount of gold production and that is one way they are getting around sanctions. They pay in physical gold.

I have also heard it said Wagners claim to fame is taking over African gold mines and seeking their production.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 21 Apr 2023, 06:13:52

They are getting around the sanctions the same way the west Europeans are, the trade through China.

"Gazprom keeps increasing gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. In 2022, gas supplies regularly exceeded daily contracted amounts based on China’s request. As a result, we exceeded our yearly obligations,” Gazprom’s chief executive Alexei Miller said in a company statement at the end of 2022.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... China.html

But more alarmingly for the West...

April 3, 2023
Russia Nears Pipeline Deal as Gas Exports to China Hit New Records
Russia’s proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline would enable gas historically exported to Europe to be redirected to China along a single pipeline system that joins the country’s West and East Siberian resource centers. https://jpt.spe.org/russia-nears-pipeli ... ew-records

The Gazprom pipelines to the West were fully amortized when they were sabotaged, they owe Russia nothing, it can walk away from them with zero cost, which they seem happy to do.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 21 Apr 2023, 09:29:19

theluckycountry wrote: But more alarmingly for the West...

April 3, 2023
Russia Nears Pipeline Deal as Gas Exports to China Hit New Records
Russia’s proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline would enable gas historically exported to Europe to be redirected to China along a single pipeline system that joins the country’s West and East Siberian resource centers. https://jpt.spe.org/russia-nears-pipeli ... ew-records


Russia selling its gas to China isn't an "alarming", it is an acceleration into renewables that will continue to diminish Russia's geopolitical power with every solar panel or wind turbine turned onto the grid. It is exactly the thing that Saudi Arabia was worried about in the mid 80's when Yamanai was worried about what happens when Americans stop consuming as much oil because of the high prices of the time, and the onslaught of more fuel efficient autos that began to flood into the market back then.

Russia has a customer of last resort for its gas in the end, and that customer will make Russia its bitch, same way as it has some countries of the Commonwealth, although in that case it is because the Brits don't have what it takes to defend them. We have watched this one coming since the Falklands.

theluckycountry wrote:The Gazprom pipelines to the West were fully amortized when they were sabotaged, they owe Russia nothing, it can walk away from them with zero cost, which they seem happy to do.


But of course. Anytime folks can break free from a shady trading partner, and take the pain to their citizens by blaming others, it is a win-win. America did something similar with oil within the past decade, not from fuel switching but just doing its usual exceptional routine in the oil and gas business. EVs will end up being phase 2, and will only be helped along by the eventual decline of American oil and natural gas production.

This is all resource economics 101 playing out as expected.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 05:20:35

About not being able to eat gold, gold and silver have limited practical use outside money, jewelry, and some applications.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 06:23:03

AMZN, Amazon. A modern method of saving for the future is shares in this company, one of the largest out there. Like Gold, It has never paid a dividend, so if you bought it your only hope of gain is to sell it at a higher price. It's all time high was somewhat over $3000 a share back in late 2020, the covid effect. Since then there has been some changes, most notably the stock began a big fall in 2022, but as long as you bought in before the middle of 2018 your still breaking even. So five years and no appreciable gains and all the gains before that were just a bubble run-up anyway.

Another big change was the stock-split of 20:1. Amazon sold this to punters as making it easier for small investors to buy in, and in a sense that's true! Because if you look at a chart today you see an all time high (adj) of around $175 and today's price of $106. That's a lot more palatable than seeing that the share price lost $1000+ over the past year. All the other big corporations pulled the same stunt, hiding their losses by making the share prices look they never entered bubble territory to begin with.

Over the same time-frame Gold has appreciated 80%, and that's in $US. It's gone up more in other currencies. Amazon's history as an investment vehicle is about 20 years. What will it be in another 20 when a large proportion of investors want to retire and spend their savings? Tesla is getting pushed out the backdoor now with the competition it faces and there is nothing to say a big shift in consumer behavior wont send Amazon out the back door either. 20 years is a long time for any corporation. I could imagine China setting up it's own distribution network to rival Amazon. Why not, most of the stuff on there comes from china anyway.

But most people don't actively manage their retirement accounts, they leave their life savings in the hands of men, women and transgenders they have never seen, nor will ever see. People dedicated to one purpose, ensuring that THEY retire with lots of money. This is why we buy gold. Because we don't trust corporations, we don't trust government and it's ever changing tax laws, and we certainly don't trust smiling retirement account hawkers.

Image

Image


https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN?p= ... m0o32z3jzm
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 10:48:53

ralfy wrote:About not being able to eat gold, gold and silver have limited practical use outside money, jewelry, and some applications.


Obviously. Don't mention it to PM fanboiz though, they believe that burying it in the yard will save them from peak oil, societal decay, halitosis, etc etc.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 10:59:24

theluckycountry wrote: People dedicated to one purpose, ensuring that THEY retire with lots of money. This is why we buy gold.


Or...not. As Ralphy has mentioned, it has limited uses, and certainly didn't appreciate near fast enough across my working career as market investments. While those with bad math skills might accept a 5X real return across a lifetime of earning, some of us preferred the 8X we got in markets instead.

theluckycountry wrote:Because we don't trust corporations, we don't trust government and it's ever changing tax laws, and we certainly don't trust smiling retirement account hawkers.


Well, citizens of countries of meager capabilities and relative unimportance get what they can get. Makes sense to not trust your government, your tax laws, your corporations (heck, they can't even build cars in your country, right?) It isn't as though they matter in the long run of how the world works, their citizens are just lucky to stay out of the way of the great powers and hope for the best.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 11:21:39

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Eventually, all fiat currencies will join the ash heap, it is only a matter of time.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 19:55:47

If you take the amount of gold and silver worldwide and divided it by the world population, you end up with only a few ounces per person.

And the value of both drop as things that need to be purchased also decrease in supply.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 20:39:38

jato0072 wrote:Eventually, all fiat currencies will join the ash heap, it is only a matter of time.


Call me crazy, but knowing PM folks as I do, I'm willing to bet you would have been angling towards the same ideas way back when on this website? And you probably wouldn't have purchased any withGerman marks, so that is a bit of a bad example designed to mislead, particularly considering what was going on in germany, currency wise, after WWI.

But having been tricked into buying some gold back with the typical PM claims back in the early 80's, and 401k's becoming available back then as well, I only know that those 401k's delivered far more value than appreciating gold ever did. Probably for others as well, as no one on this site has ever claimed to have lived in Germany since WWI and suffered through that induced currency devaluation, but some of us probably have money in 401k's.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2011-2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Apr 2023, 20:41:42

ralfy wrote:If you take the amount of gold and silver worldwide and divided it by the world population, you end up with only a few ounces per person. And the value of both drop as things that need to be purchased also decrease in supply.


How does that work, exactly, considering how supply and demand work together with price? When things that NEED to be purchased (implying inelasticity in demand) decrease in supply, it tends to drive price up, not down.
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