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THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 16 Apr 2024, 04:22:02

Why Gold Could Be Your Best Investment in 2024


Just a headline, one of many coming out now Gold has skyrocketed. Personally I would advise people not to buy Gold at this time, or ever! It's really to late for them, this ship sailed long ago and though it may preserve their purchasing power the average person will be unhappy that it doesn't go to the moon and give them a lifestyle of the rich and famous. Better for the average person to just stay the course with whatever they have been hoping in to date. Sure most will lose out but that's the gambling mindset in today's society at work, and they will have plenty of company scouring the supermarkets for specials on rice and boxes of cereal.

Gold is not for everyone, and if you doubt it's for you, you're right!
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 02 Aug 2024, 04:00:18

$AU 3,780.98 A new all time high for Gold in aussie.

Image
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 19 Aug 2024, 20:54:52

As Gold in $US rises above $2500 It's a good time to pause and look at it's performance over the past 20 years, past the IT bubble, the housing collapse and the GFC collapse, the Shale oil and covid SPACS and now the EV collapse. All those paper markets have been a roller-coaster ride and if you got in at the right time, and more importantly, got out before the collapses, you may have done well. But of course in the real world that rarely happens.

Why do we put money into these places? Because we are saving for retirement, obviously, and because we know the interest paid by banks over time doesn't allow our savings to keep pace with inflation.

Enter Gold. In $US

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No it doesn't pay a dividend that accrues to see the investment grow, the compound effect. But what's that typically, 5%, 8% added per annum? Over twenty years Gold has appreciated 25% per annum on average. Far better and more than enough to offset the lack of compounded interest. And of course you don't have to worry about it "Collapsing" like WeWork shares or tesla shares.

$256,000. A quarter of a million dollars, that's what you'd have if you'd invested $50k into gold back 20 years ago. Is a quarter of a million tax free enough to retire on, to live off of for say 20 years? Perhaps not, I myself would want double that. But Gold isn't a one off purchase, You buy it as you have means and as you salary rises it takes the sting out of the rising price. At some point you say enough is enough and you just forget about it, leave it hidden in your safe or buried in the yard.

You don't have to check your App every day, or call you're 'broker' every six months. You don't have to worry about covid events or changing technology or faltering economies or any of that because Gold surpasses all that and more. In times of war and great depressions it's value rises even more! It's the no-brainer investment in your portfolio.

Oh houses down here have done well, 100% per decade and you can rent them and so the cost isn't as much upfront, but 200% isn't 512% and those homes come with many costs over time, the big one being the capital gains cost at sale. Plenty of people invest in houses, I have knows quite a few. I have watched them scramble to cut taxes at end of life, watched others lose all by being over-extended in a falling market and higher rates era. It's no dream run I assure you. I knew a spec-builder years ago who had kept 3 beautiful homes for his retirement, he was 80 when I met him, a bitter old man who refused to sell them to fund a lavish retirement because he refused to pay the capital gains taxes. You won't have that problem with a "coin collection" it doesn't accrue capital gains.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 12 Sep 2024, 17:11:06

Amid all the turmoil of the past 5 years we have this, and a new all time high.

Image

Not that an all time high means a lot when inflation is factored in but it does prove that Gold keeps pace with inflation, that's it's secret. Shares in Tesla, a market favorite, are down 40% over the roughly same period. Are they paying dividends? Well you'd hope so but you're savings are still 40% down, and really, what hope for the future now the Chinese have undercut them? Musk is not his shareholders though, he's a lot smarter

The stock tumbled after the CEO’s sale and fell further when electric-vehicle maker said it had delivered fewer cars than expected. ...Under SEC rules at the time he didn't have to disclose on the form whether he was using such a plan. Mr. Musk has sold more than $39 billion of Tesla shares since the stock's November 2021 peak, including almost $23 billion last year, in part to fund his $44 billion purchase of Twitter Inc.

The first part of that story is established fact, the second is conjecture, since X is a private company and not open to public scrutiny. Very wise. It's safe to assume he did in fact put some billions into the project but since he himself has never declared how much it's obvious his backers put in a lot more. What is X? Nothing more than a serious effort to control social media. And who would want to control that? We all know the answer.

Gold is not like a stock or a bond even, you don't have to fear that one day it will collapse in value and wipe out your hard earned savings. It's true that the instrument falls into bear markets but as long as you don't buy in during a runup top you'll be ok. Once it retracts it's always higher than before the public mania. And when are these bear markets? Always during times of low inflation and when paper digital markets are building into bubbles.

It's off the chart to the Left but in 1970 Gold was $35 an ounce, a decade later it settled out at $300/ounce. Not a bad return for a decades wait. Even if you'd bought in 1975 you'd still have protected your savings from the ravages of inflation. That was a bear market for the stock market, that when American manufacturing was being hollowed out. The end of an era.

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What lies ahead? Well considering the debt (which similar in scope to the debt burden of the late 1920's) we could see a repricing of gold even higher! But either way it's a safe bet when everything else is tied to the derivatives complex and every corporation is just as indebted as the Government and the consumer. Real Wealth doesn't exist anymore in our financial markets. It's all just promises to pay based on endless growth, tied to cheap oil naturally.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk- ... 1674177642
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 Sep 2024, 18:01:52

theluckycountry wrote:Gold is not like a stock or a bond even, you don't have to fear that one day it will collapse in value and wipe out your hard earned savings.

Interesting point. If gold has the ability to fluctuate in the market place (just like the markets do), and it does, then its value can decrease (collapse is such a overkill word for the same thing) no differently than market tracking investments . Your charts demonstrate just that, surprised you didn't notice those downward trends?

Anyway, lets play the "what are my Kruggerands worth nowadays versus my market investments?" game.

I don't even remember exactly what year I was talked into collecting this gold, pre import ban in the US, someone I was working with offshore, talkative doomer type during the time of residual US inflation Jimmy left the US economy worth, the world was a scary place, Cold War...blah blah blah... I fell for the same salespitch that the unoriginal still use today, and I admit it, I was suckered in by it. I was young, and dumb, what can I say? However, to my credit, I knew better than to trust a doomer even then and understood that the ebbs and flow of time work for both gold and markets. So I bought some of the gold he was selling to fund his charter fishing business or something and became a gold investor. And within 6 months, began doing the same thing in market tracking funds, nothing stock specific like VT used to discuss, I'm not market prognosticator, I like fire and forget. So I did. And still do today.

So S&P tracking funds and be done with it, never done an individual stock in my life.

Lets start with the average gold price in 1982. $376/oz. S&P 500 was maybe 102 or some such?

Gold closed today at 2587/oz. S&P closed at 5595.

So... I'll show my work...mousepad I'm counting on you to check my math here....

Gold Multiples = 2587/376 = 6.88
S&P500 Multiples= 5595/102 = 54.85

Would anyone like to guess which of my investment strategies is now worth more (no guessing necessary for anyone who can do math of course)?

PS: I will admit that the gold has a bit of fascination to it, just sitting there being....you know....touchable and shiny and heavy....but that doesn't make its value anywhere near the single piece of paper in my desk detailing how 42 year old market tracking funds turned out.

But because it is cool, I'll still cheer it on! Cool has it own value! Just not enough to make up for such lousy investing performance over the past four decades.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 13 Sep 2024, 15:18:29

In the 1960's there was very little inflation, these coins were issued in 1966, a commemorative coin put into circulation when Australia switched to the decimal system of currency. They were 800 fine, or 800 parts per thousand fine silver. They weren't a gift! The price of an ounce of silver was about $1.50 and three of these coins contained a troy ounce of it. They are about an inch and a half in diameter. And just between you and I, they are Beautiful. Even decades old they shine with a luster and sing when you flip them.

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They were only made in one year, 1966, but they minted tens of millions of them. By the end of decade they had all but been withdrawn from circulation though many millions had been hoarded for their silver content. Fifty cents in 1966, ten of them adding up to $5. A lot of money in 66 I assure you. Today ten of those coins are sold for $200 Australian through the dealers. And that's not a numismatic price, they are not rare, at $45/ troy oz that's what the silver in them is basically worth (+ commissions).

That is a forty fold increase in value and it basically shows how much our currency has been devalued by it's inflation. By the trillions of dollars that have been created since 1966. A Trillion. It's easy to say but the number defies daily comprehension.

One million inches is about 16 miles. One billion inches is 16,000 miles. And one trillion inches, that's 16 million miles. The average distance from the Earth to the Moon is 238,857 miles.

We all know how long an inch is. Now imagine going to the Moon and back 33 times, inch by inch. It's easy to create money, free basically, but it's not easy to produce Silver. Without oil in fact silver would be very very hard to produce, almost impossible now since all the big plays are gone and you have to process a ton of ore just to produce a single ounce or so. 1 Oz = 31 grams

Native silver is scarce. Most of the world's silver supply comes from ore that contains low percentages of the precious metal. For example, Sorby Hills, Australia's largest undeveloped silver-lead-zinc deposit, contains an estimated 35 grams of silver per ton of ore.

So is silver worth investing in? At this point, a hell of lot more than Gold at current prices. Why? Because for nearly all recorded history the gold silver price ratio was about 15:1 Today it's 87:1
The reason for this is simple price manipulation, and not for any nefarious reasons either. It, like oil, is artificially kept low because it is so necessary for modern industrial life. You can't have it going too high, it would cripple industry. I agree with this strategy, I certainly wouldn't have wanted to pay 50% extra for my solar panels. But that just shows how great an investment it actually is. It's vital, and it can only go one way in price over time, as the charts show.

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Sure there was a bubble 16 years ago, that was the GFC, the end of the world as we knew it, everyone freaked out, RAN FOR SAFETY! Then silver settled back to it's steady climb when money printing resumed. Why did it go back up, why does food go up? New cars go up? Just don't buy Silver in a bubble top and you'll be fine and it's certainly not in one now. Like Gold it has a 5000 year history too, it aint going away, unlike pets.com and WeWork and 10,000 other investments. It aint going anywhere, but up over time.

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Why Is Silver Found With Lead And Zinc?
https://boabmetals.com/blog/why-silver- ... lead-zinc/
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 14 Sep 2024, 03:50:31

Saudi Central Bank Caught Secretly Buying 160 Tonnes of Gold in Switzerland

The Saudis have joined other Asian countries in ditching their long-term sensitivity to the gold price. Evidence suggests the Saudi central bank has been covertly buying 160 tonnes of gold in Switzerland since early 2022, contributing to the current gold bull market.

Although the Saudis played a key role in the birth of the global dollar standard in the early 1970s, this time around they might even become a lynchpin for its dissolution...

Introduction

Until recently, Saudi Arabia’s gold demand would decline when the gold price went up and strengthen when the price went south. This dampened volatility in the gold market, which for many decades was ruled by the West.

Ever since the West immobilized Russia’s dollar assets in February 2022, those with diplomatic disagreements with the West are increasingly exchanging their dollars for physical gold. Saudi Arabia is the latest country—after China and Thailand—of which I have found cross-border trade statistics showing it has shifted from being price sensitive to a price driver...

...Just like the reported gold reserves by the PBoC, the number put out by SAMA is purely political. By hiding how much precious metal the nation truly owns, the House of Saud avoids openly upsetting the United States.

But the evolution of countries in Asia storing more and more of their trade surpluses in gold—a time-tested neutral and sanction proof reserve asset—is clear. Next to 160 tonnes by SAMA, I calculate the PBoC bought 1,600 tonnes since the war in Ukraine. Both central banks, the former of the most influential country in the oil market and the latter of the second largest economy globally, must be confident in what direction the gold market is headed.
Full Article
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/0 ... and-003458
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 14 Sep 2024, 18:22:02

theluckycountry wrote: Like Gold it has a 5000 year history too, it aint going away, unlike pets.com and WeWork and 10,000 other investments. It aint going anywhere, but up over time.


Just like US market investments during your, and my, entire lifetime.

Except better.

I noticed you didn't have a milliseconds thought for the math of it, as I demonstrated. Was it because you don't know any, and therefore are intellectually helpless....as usual...when any math, logic, science or inkling of analytic thought gets involved?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 16 Sep 2024, 16:15:19

I bet you wish you had bought some Gold adam, but people who live tawdry lives like you just don't, they can never afford it. One of my Perth Mint kangaroos is probably worth more than both your EV's put together now :wink: No, buying Gold is not like buying houses, you need the money upfront, you can't take it on a mortgage. I only know one other bloke who went into it like I did, a businessman too that had a lot of cash passing through his hands, he did it to hide the money basically.

It's always been a good way to avoid some of the criminal taxes governments apply. The common people hate the idea of that! They are fully programed by their government to believe all taxes are necessary and anyone who illegally avoids them is a cheat and a lowlife. Meanwhile these same people see their wealth diminishing year by year. The thing is that it while it might be illegal not to declare all income it's not illegal to sell a "coin collection" and avoid capital gains taxes. But only an idiot would comply with all government laws. Go down that road and you end up burning books and then burning Jews.

I notice that in america they are already doing that. Burning the old books with any racist or white colonial references in them. Tearing down all the statues of past heroes. I guess it won't be long before they are burning old White men too, certainly they have the violent immigrant population now to do it. Just let the police turn a blind eye like they did in the BLM riots.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 16 Sep 2024, 20:08:11

theluckycountry wrote:I bet you wish you had bought some Gold adam, but people who live tawdry lives like you just don't, they can never afford it.

You should learn to read better. I don't need to "wish", I did, and mentioned elsewhere the returns on it versus market investments since the early 1980's within the last week or so.

Go find it. Learn something. Stop appearing so flipping stupid before everyone else figures out you are for themselves, and laughs off everything else you say as Nazi inspired nonsense.

My gold is nice, and I mentioned why. It certainly ISN'T because of the return on it I would get if I sold it today. Simple math. Try some.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 18 Sep 2024, 05:52:03

Are you telling lies again Adam? pretending you bought a lot of gold, just so you don't look stupid, which you are. Pretending you own Bitcoin, pretending you have this great lifestyle. If I wasn't retired and having a layback year I wouldn't even be posting here, but someone needs to keep subjects of interest up to date. You're an atypical Yank! Big mouth, no Brains, stomping across the forum adding nothing but your incessant whining, you're like a whining dog an owner left out in the cold :P
You're a nothing Adam, a piece of lint, a bottle cap. A true useless eater. I don't know why I'm even wasting my time talking at you? It's not like I read your posts, I don't care for the opinions of 3rd world inhabitants.


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The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 18 Sep 2024, 08:53:43

theluckycountry wrote:Are you telling lies again Adam?

I laid out the math. Posted it, my gold, my investments, as it happened. Asked mousepad to check the arithmetic, should I have flubbed something. Ask a local 10 year old in 5th grade on the high school diploma track to check it if you'd like, or go back to school and learn how to add, subtract, divide and multiply yourself, and then read the post.

I DARE a halfwitted uneducated neonazi like you to refute it. Nazi putz.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 20 Sep 2024, 19:35:54

Lets look at some Gold Price charts in local currencies for a moment.

Aussie price over the last 15 years, nice and steady, reflecting our economy. Marked Covid dip, an inverse to the stock market boom then.

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Russian Ruble, notice the war dip, interesting that? There would be a valid reason though, perhaps something to do with the SWIFT banning. Otherwise it's similar to the Aussie chart.
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This one is interesting. The Saudi Oil Kingdom. It's long been said that gold and oil move in lockstep. What is it implying though? Simply that Gold's fortunes are tied to the availability and price of Gold. If vast volumes are being produced and the price is low, so is Gold's price.
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The $US price over roughly the same period. Very close isn't it. The oil kingdom and the oil price managers. America's destiny is tied to the price of oil, just like the Saudi fortunes are. Perhaps the advent of shale oil played a big part in this slump in Gold prices but I would wager the phenomenal money printing had as much to do with it. But I'm no expert there, it's just a fact that as cheap oil flooded the nation the price of Gold fell substantially. Though not to below the pre-Great recession price. Gold has risen in response to the insane housing bubble inflation of the 00's and wasn't giving up those gains.
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And the United Arab Emirates.
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And, the British pound sterling ( I couldn't load a shorter chart but the same big dip is there) It's the same as the $US dollar price chart and the UK didn't embark on any Great Shale Oil boom, which is another reason to disregard that. Shale oil never made a red cent to pass on to the broader economy. It was all profits in-house, to Wall street, Banks and the companies engaged in it. And it left an $800 Billion debt in it's wake. The UK economy is like the US economy, it's basis is money shuffling, money printing and it has a big hand in managing the oil price with Brent.
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So what can we say from this? It seems any nation whose fortunes are tied to Oil either as a exporter or a currency controller are in for big problems when the oil price starts to go up. That is in relative terms. The oil price could stay where it is today for the next 100 years but as it depletes those nations that have nothing to offer will find themselves pushed out of the auction room.

Australian natural resources, minerals, coal, Gas and Oil as well as many food staples and meat will keep us in the game for middle-eastern oil, but other nations who have raped their natural resources, and those with limited or no resources will be pushed back into agrarian lifestyles, as much of Africa and Asia are now, certainly as France, Germany and the UK etc are fast becoming losers. South America is another matter all together. It's really still under the Colonial Heel, the US with it's sanctions and IMF deals crippling their efforts to raise standards of living. That will change no doubt as the US withdraws into it's shell, or breaks apart in a civil war.

Interesting days ahead...
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 20 Sep 2024, 19:57:56

theluckycountry wrote:Lets look at some Gold Price charts in local currencies for a moment.

You have to do that maybe, your country doesn't have the world reserve currency. And the poor returns on my gold and investments have already been demonstrated by my example previously provided in the currency that matters. It had some math involved, I apologize, but I find it difficult to reduce it any further to your level of mathematics...1st grade...kindergarden? Find a 2nd grader, ask them for help with it.

Now run along and work at your intellectual maximum to make important things happen like Queenslanders are known for...

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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 20 Sep 2024, 23:35:31

Gold is still climbing! Breaking new records every other day. Either it's still playing catchup with the inflation of the last couple of years, or the inflation hasn't abated, or their is big demand because it's telegraphing something?

Let's look at a few stories off the web.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Why "Digital Gold" is Losing Ground to Physical Precious Metals
Gold prices have surged past $2,500 per ounce, overshadowing Bitcoin, which struggles to break the $60,000 mark. This shift comes as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates, boosting gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
For the first time in history, gold prices surpassed $2,500/oz on speculation that the Fed is getting closer to a rate cut. The previous high for spot gold, set last month, was surpassed on Friday afternoon when prices soared beyond $2,500/oz. Following dismal US housing statistics, which has bolstered predictions of quicker and larger cutbacks from the Fed, the index increased.

This comes when Bitcoin has been unable to breakthrough $60,000 and is fast losing its shine as the "digital gold."
https://www.blockhead.co/2024/08/21/gol ... -metals-2/

I don't think much of this interest rate theory, when interest rates went up in the 70's so did the gold price, when interest rates went up in the latter 2000's Gold went up again. And with rates going up after Covid, the Gold price went up again. Analysts look everywhere and their conclusions are not always valid. The one thing they typically fail to recognize is Gold's consistent rise with inflation, beyond any commodity index. Simply put, Gold is Money. Real money that tracks the cost of things, land, food, whatever. It doesn't get watered down like paper money.

Bitcoin claims to be this too, "Digital Gold" but that was just a marketing ploy and as we have seen it's failed miserably. Oh it's up massively since it's inception but that has nothing to do with tracking inflation or being a hedge against money printing. It's just a measure of how stupid people became, like the Beanie Baby craze. It's limited to 20 million!! So what? It's infinitely divisible and there are thousands of others just like it. There is nothing stopping anyone creating an identical digital system and calling it BitGold and hiding 20 million on the web's servers. What's the difference? The difference is tens of millions of people aren't already hodling BC tight in the hope it will go to the moon. It's a captured market, there is no industry demanding BC, no natural demand, just greed in the minds of a select group of people and that group has now reached critical mass. There is no great cadre of people "Wanting in" like there was.

Today I read that Blackrock is going to take a big stake in BC because of fears over the $35T debt the US has. If that doesn't push the price over $70 nothing will, but I doubt it will, just like I doubt Blackrock is serious. You don't make money by telling people you're going to buy something then join the rush. You make it by buying in early and selling INTO the rush.

BlackRock Reveals It’s Quietly Preparing For A $35 Trillion Federal Reserve Dollar Crisis With Bitcoin—Predicted To Spark A Sudden Price Boom https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-as ... rice-boom/

BlackRock has $10 trillion in assets under management, it described bitcoin as a "unique diversifier" to hedge against economic and political risk. Talk, it's just Talk, Talking heads from a global octopus that has it's filthy hands in every unsavory activity on the Planet. Take it for what it's worth.

Investors Against Genocide engaged extensively with BlackRock regarding the need for genocide-free investing. Ultimately, that engagement failed. BlackRock was interested in ESG investing, but not in avoiding investments tied to genocide. Investors Against Genocide is no longer engaging BlackRock.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-as ... rice-boom/

Now this is a good recent analysis on Gold I believe.

Why Gold Is Breaking Records: The Story Of The 1970s

On April 9 2024, the price on an ounce of gold exceeded $2,350, reaching an all-time high after a series of recent record highs, and the upward trend continues!

As a reminder, an ounce weighing 31.1 grams was worth $35 on August 15, 1971, when Richard Nixon decided to leave the Bretton Woods Agreement, then $280 on January 1, 2000, before soaring again. Should we welcome the remarkable rise in the price of gold, or should we consider the collapse in the value of the dollar? Both, and investors who have bet on gold, particularly since the early 2000s, have done very well.

But why is gold rising at a time when inflation is falling in the United States and Europe, and central banks are celebrating, reassuring and announcing interest rate cuts? Inflation has been brought under control without sinking into recession, so isn't everything working out for the best?

If gold is still rising, it means it doesn't believe in this scenario. As we know, the yellow metal has flair: it began a long climb in the early 2000s, in response to the Fed's accommodating monetary policy, which began to reduce interest rates following the crash of technology stocks in January 2000 and the attacks of September 11, 2001. Anticipating "asset inflation" (limited to real assets such as real estate, equities and art), gold perfectly protected its holders. More recently, gold has been climbing since the end of 2019, heralding the inflation (this time in consumer goods) that took off in mid-2020.

Inflation has eased, undoubtedly, but remains at a significant level, higher than during the Covid period. Above all, the astronomical budget deficits in the United States and several European countries, including France, could force central banks to start printing money again. The announced rate cuts are likely to be hasty. As a result, inflation is likely to pick up again. Western countries experienced a similar situation in the 1970s, with an initial surge in prices in 1973-1974, which was quickly contained. At the time, many people thought the worst was over. However, inflation rose again in 1978-1980, peaking at 13.5% in the United States.

Gold prices had anticipated this second wave by starting to rise in September 1976, after a period of decline. The Fed's governor at the time, Paul Volcker, was forced to raise the key rate to 20% in order to significantly reduce inflation. Even half that would be inconceivable today, given the scale of public and private debt. The whole economy would collapse! So, how will we get out of a second wave if it happens? Nobody really knows…

The two waves of inflation in the 1970s were triggered by the oil shocks of 1973 (following the Yom Kippur War) and 1979 (linked to the Iranian revolution). Today, there is no real major shock, but energy remains expensive, especially for Europe (few resources, costly energy transition, boomerang sanctions against Russia). What's more, the price of a barrel of oil is rising again, and has just passed the $90 mark…

It's still too early to know whether a second wave of inflation will occur, but gold seems to suspect it...

https://goldbroker.com/news/why-gold-br ... 1970s-3329

A good view in my opinion because it's a long term view. If you think of Gold in terms of quarters you're an Idiot! That's the paper gold contract cycle and everyone playing it gets burned. For the last 20 years and more the big buyers of Gold have been China and Russia and Saudi Arabia and India. Massive Gold buyers!

10 Largest Producers of Gold by Country (Updated 2024)

China. Gold production: 370 metric tons. ...
Australia. Gold production: 310 metric tons. ...
Russia. Gold production: 310 metric tons. ...
Canada. Gold production: 200 metric tons. ...
United States. Gold production: 170 metric tons. ...

So China and Russia have not only been hoarding a lot of their native gold production but have been active buyers on the world markets. Why? Oh Dear... Need I say it, again! There are two competing New World Orders. The bankrupt west with it's desire to go "Digital" currency and wipe out it's debts in a great transition, where YOU will be stripped of your pension and anything you have tied to debt. And the BRICS system which is clearly planning a switch to a stable Gold backed currency.

They have the Lions share of Gold, the OIL, the minerals and the food. In other words all the things that matter to life on earth. The WEST has nothing but Debts and a printing press. That's why I reject shitcoin out of hand, along with shares and bonds and all the other manmade investment vehicles. It's smoke and mirrors, it's value dependent on hopium that it will be worth more in the future. And that's not my opinion, the very definition of Fiat currency spells it out. It's the trust and belief that the government will guarantee all these things that gives them value, it's the belief of the people in them that keeps them afloat. Tesla is the classic example of this, rising in paper book value (not real value) to be worth more than the 5 leading auto makers on the Planet combined! Why? Because idiots believed in it :lol:

How it's looking today? It's a disaster but still worth 3/4 of a Trillion on paper, why? Because people still believe in it, and more importantly, because corrupt private pension funds refuse to sell it that's why. They know it's worthless, it was always in the Red, but it's too big to fail, too much a part of the confidence game. When the Reset comes you'll see it fall like a stone and it will all be blamed on Russia or the Jews or someone. And Guess what? You'll believe it too :roll:

Thousands of Shares and Currencies, manmade financial instruments, have collapsed into oblivion over the centuries but Gold and Silver have stayed the course. Maintaining their value not only in the nations that defaulted or collapsed but in every other nation on the Planet, for all time. Looking around the World today I see that same intrinsic value playing out as always. It's only the dying West, with America as its mouthpiece that is claiming things are fine. But all that's just talk to keep the citizens consumers of the West fully invested in the worthless paper. The rulers of the West don't believe it for a moment and have spread their own wealth into tangible assets, much of which is no doubt outside of the US. The continental US will not be a nice place to live in the decades to come just as Mexico is not a nice place now. Hawaii perhaps, the virgin Islands, places like that may well be ok.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 21 Sep 2024, 23:41:53

theluckycountry wrote:Gold is still climbing! Breaking new records every other day.

So are US markets. And market investments have clobbered my gold investment.....why are you willing to suffer lousy returns? You figure it is genius to make less % gains in their investment than a McDonalds worker with a market tracking fund? Grow up.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 22 Sep 2024, 00:41:08

Here, listen to the Jews, if it's one thing they know it's MONEY.

Rafi Farber: Extremely Rare Gold Bull Signal Triggered For First Time Since 2001
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkDDN0rNU9k
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 02 Oct 2024, 18:56:02

'Get Out Of Stocks...Buy Gold' - Charles Nenner Warns Of Imminent 'End Of American Empire'

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning of a huge war cycle.

Well that's not news to me, the 100 year fourth turning was cycle is well under way.
When will this market crash come? Nenner says, “It’s still going to take half a year or a year until everybody realizes how bad the situation is compared to the BRIC countries." " The dollar is not going to be the major currency. Nixon stopped backing it by gold, and Saudia Arabia stopped backing it by oil. It is not backed by anything. So, why would you trust the dollar?

Well I can't argue with any of that.
Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman's fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001. From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv.

In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients.

Probably knows more about finance than Adam, though not in Adam's opinion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... can-empire
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 02 Oct 2024, 19:03:48

theluckycountry wrote:'Get Out Of Stocks...Buy Gold' - Charles Nenner Warns Of Imminent 'End Of American Empire'

Yeah, I'll sell my gold but only if someone pays me the same ratio in gains I've made in the market since I bought it.

Make you the same trade Lucky....

<snicker snicker come on Lucky....keep doing your thing....>

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Precious Metals: Gold Thread 2023 (Merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 02 Oct 2024, 19:07:40

theluckycountry wrote:Here, listen to the Jews, if it's one thing they know it's MONEY.


Does racism go with being a neoNazi? Awhile back you posted something along the lines of "the Jap" in referring to Japanese citizens or the country I presume. Now its the Jews and money. You being a neonazi would seem to be clue as to your opinion on the Jews...I wonder if all your proclivities are as much racist as Nazi?

Haven't heard you talk about a wife or kids or anything. Are you a misogynist, general woman hater or maybe just gay? (which might get you in a BUNCH of trouble with your nazi friends).
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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