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THE Ozone Thread (merged)

Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 24 Dec 2009, 11:40:36

dissident wrote:There is only a full ozone hole over the southern pole. In the northern hemisphere the stratospheric polar vortex is too disturbed (by Rossby waves, which have a larger amplitude due to the differences in topography between the two hemispheres) for the vortex interior to be fully isolated from middle latitude air. So even though there is chlorine activation on polar stratospheric cloud particles the springtime reduction is nowhere near as large as in the southern hemisphere. The Rossby wave interaction with the large scale circulation also has the effect of producing more dynamical heating in the northern hemisphere winter so that stratospheric temperatures are higher. So the infrared "window" is more opaque in the northern hemisphere. Any tropospheric cooling effect associated with stratospheric ozone loss is tiny to begin with and the relatively small ozone losses in the northern hemisphere makes it basically irrelevant in the face of other driving factors for Arctic sea ice loss: warm ocean currents and warmer temperatures produce by baroclinic eddy heat flux from the tropics.

Based on chemistry climate model simulations (e.g. CCMVal) the southern hemisphere ozone hole will not go away completely even by 2070. But at least the middle latitude incidence of low ozone events will be eliminated sparing us from excessive UV exposure.


And the Mid Latitude is where El Nino is.

El Niño events are becoming more frequent and severe.

The Australia/SoCal/Az droughts do not go away.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby dissident » Thu 24 Dec 2009, 12:05:56

Yes, AGW is going to f*ck over humanity royally. By 2050 people around the world will be looking back at today and asking what these scumbag politicians and denialist agitators were thinking. We already have the technology to get off fossil fuels so we have no excuse whatsoever to continue BAU. The cost argument is rubbish from a macro-economic point of view and given the trillions thrown at other projects cannot be invoked.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 24 Dec 2009, 12:15:08

Those old car AC units could really cool you down... until the gaskets dried out and all the refrigerant leaked out.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby cudabachi » Thu 24 Dec 2009, 13:18:33

dissident wrote:Yes, AGW is going to f*ck over humanity royally. By 2050 people around the world will be looking back at today and asking what these scumbag politicians and denialist agitators were thinking. We already have the technology to get off fossil fuels so we have no excuse whatsoever to continue BAU. The cost argument is rubbish from a macro-economic point of view and given the trillions thrown at other projects cannot be invoked.


And what technology would that be?
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 24 Dec 2009, 20:39:30

cudabachi wrote:
dissident wrote:Yes, AGW is going to f*ck over humanity royally. By 2050 people around the world will be looking back at today and asking what these scumbag politicians and denialist agitators were thinking. We already have the technology to get off fossil fuels so we have no excuse whatsoever to continue BAU. The cost argument is rubbish from a macro-economic point of view and given the trillions thrown at other projects cannot be invoked.


And what technology would that be?

That's the problem, we are probably going to need to come up with a silver bullet technology to yank the CO2 out of the air and most of our resources to implement it.

It would have been nice to be 20 years out front of this issue, but the climate change bus has probably already left the station. I expect in 5 years we'll be prioritizing which costal areas to save, what to dismantle, and what to abandon.

At this point, maybe the best strategy is to come up with new strategies to curb the worst case scenarios of ocean acidification (like actual extinction), and hope to limit the damage to an 80% population haircut.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 24 Dec 2009, 21:17:06

PrestonSturges wrote:we are probably going to need to come up with a silver bullet technology to yank the CO2 out of the air



aka "trees and grass"
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby cudabachi » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 01:00:17

Ludi wrote:
PrestonSturges wrote:we are probably going to need to come up with a silver bullet technology to yank the CO2 out of the air
aka "trees and grass"
Indeed. I recall when I was young seeing huge stands of pine trees on the open "plains" of S. Louisiana and asking my dad why they were there as pines didn't naturally grow on land that was wet for much of the year. He commented that they were planted during the depression by corps of unemployed people working under government grants.

Why not more such programs? There are already a number of government programs that help pay for converting former farmland back to its natural vegetative state. Perhaps these could be expanded.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 03:37:53

cudabachi wrote:Indeed. I recall when I was young seeing huge stands of pine trees on the open "plains" of S. Louisiana and asking my dad why they were there as pines didn't naturally grow on land that was wet for much of the year. He commented that they were planted during the depression by corps of unemployed people working under government grants.

Why not more such programs? There are already a number of government programs that help pay for converting former farmland back to its natural vegetative state. Perhaps these could be expanded.

I think we'll see every forest outside national parks cut down to make up for the loss of coastal farm land.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 08:33:40

PrestonSturges wrote:
cudabachi wrote:Indeed. I recall when I was young seeing huge stands of pine trees on the open "plains" of S. Louisiana and asking my dad why they were there as pines didn't naturally grow on land that was wet for much of the year. He commented that they were planted during the depression by corps of unemployed people working under government grants.

Why not more such programs? There are already a number of government programs that help pay for converting former farmland back to its natural vegetative state. Perhaps these could be expanded.

I think we'll see every forest outside national parks cut down to make up for the loss of coastal farm land.


The vast majority of farm land is not on the continental margin in North America, it is upland and interior. If you are going to worry about something don't waste your worry on non issues.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 08:44:14

Tanada wrote:The vast majority of farm land is not on the continental margin in North America, it is upland and interior. If you are going to worry about something don't waste your worry on non issues.
There may be a relatively small amount of rice-growing lowlands along the Gulf and some fruit growing in parts of Florida, but you're right, most of the farmland in the US is well protected from sea level rise.

These interior lands will be more vulnerable to weather extremes caused by global warming, though.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 09:01:29

Ludi wrote:
Tanada wrote:The vast majority of farm land is not on the continental margin in North America, it is upland and interior. If you are going to worry about something don't waste your worry on non issues.
There may be a relatively small amount of rice-growing lowlands along the Gulf and some fruit growing in parts of Florida, but you're right, most of the farmland in the US is well protected from sea level rise. These interior lands will be more vulnerable to weather extremes caused by global warming, though.
Agreed, if he wants to worry about THAT more power too him!

The way I see it on the elevation maps even if we had maximum melt and maximum sea level rise as a result we would 'only' lose about 15% of our arable land. Shifting climate zones and adaptation would be a bigger issue.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 09:07:57

Tanada wrote:The way I see it on the elevation maps even if we had maximum melt and maximum sea level rise as a result we would 'only' lose about 15% of our arable land. Shifting climate zones and adaptation would be a bigger issue.
Relocation of the enormous coastal populations will be the biggest issue - some populations in other parts of the world are already having to relocate. :(
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby dissident » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 10:19:17

Ah, yes, all that aquifer fed agriculture in the mid-west. That's not going to last regardless of climate change since the aquifers are being depleted rather quickly. We'll be having issues in the seal level rise immune zones long before sea level rise exceeds 2 meters.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 11:02:42

dissident wrote:Ah, yes, all that aquifer fed agriculture in the mid-west. That's not going to last regardless of climate change since the aquifers are being depleted rather quickly. We'll be having issues in the seal level rise immune zones long before sea level rise exceeds 2 meters.


Dryland farming is not as productive as all those water wheel irrigation systems, but there is a lot of farmland even today that is maintained perfectly well with rainfall. Most often it is a matter of either seeking to grow something that takes a lot of water or something that produces bumper crops when watered above and beyond natural rainfall like Cotton in the first case and Corn in the second. Even at that both crops go fine without irrigation in large area's, growing Cotton in the desert south west has to be one of the dumbest and most wasteful things I have ever seen industrial farming do.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby dissident » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 11:28:43

What the Incas achieved with agriculture in their ENSO afflicted, arid land was amazing. So solutions exist. But the problem is that there is a lack of culture and awareness to implement these solutions. I doubt that the market response to worsening irrigation conditions will be to adapt intelligently. It will be buck maximizing, short term, knee jerk, let's move somewhere else or divert water from the Great Lakes or Canada to keep BAU alive. I think that it is the lack of the capacity to escape the cultural box that has led to the collapse of civilizations throughout history. There are always right choices and solutions, but they are seldom if ever made. BAU is like a religion, non-negotiable.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Lore » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 11:29:59

Unfortunaely rain or lack of with moderate to severe weather events, will in the future, make growing crops even more of a crap shoot.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby cudabachi » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 12:31:49

Drought? Changing rainfall patterns? Amaranth. Read about it. :wink:

After two years of drought at my place in Venezeula, I'm going to be planting my first "foundation seed" this year.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 25 Dec 2009, 12:34:05

There's a lot of farm land under 100 feet in elevation from the Delmarva peninsula down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Soybeans, cotton, tree farms, and a huge poultry industry.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 26 Dec 2009, 12:06:28

cudabachi wrote:Drought? Changing rainfall patterns? Amaranth. Read about it. :wink: After two years of drought at my place in Venezeula, I'm going to be planting my first "foundation seed" this year.
Amaranth is a plant that does well here in Central Texas, but it does like some irrigation in extreme drought. It seems to go dormant when dry, then spring back to life with a little rain or irrigation. Self-seeds easily. Becomes a weed if you let it.
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Re: Whatever happened to the ozone hole controversy?

Unread postby cudabachi » Sat 26 Dec 2009, 13:43:28

Ludi wrote:Amaranth is a plant that does well here in Central Texas, but it does like some irrigation in extreme drought. It seems to go dormant when dry, then spring back to life with a little rain or irrigation. Self-seeds easily. Becomes a weed if you let it.
My place looks a lot like the Hill Country though I'm sure the rainfall patterns are different......dry season, wet season. Right now, sorghum is generally the best option, especially if one is going to plant later in the rainy seasion when the frequency of rainfall really drops off.

I'm going to give amaranth a try both from the protein content of the seeds and the volume of material produced with the plants.. .chopped and siloed, I'm thinking it'll be an excellent cattle feed.
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