Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 20:51:40

As I've been regularly reporting in this thread here (which mysteriously seems to get little attention), I'll repeat my latest chart, since it's the same topic.

Percentage rise or fall in US oil consumption ("product supplied") from year earlier period, 2008, 4-week average

Source

Week = Week ending
TPS = Total Product Supplied
G = Gasoline
D = Distillates
J = Jet fuel

Week____TPS____G____D____J__
1/4______+2.6___+0.4___+4.9___-3.1
1/11_____+2.2___+1.2___+2.1___-3.3
1/18_____+1.5___+1.1___+0.3___-4.0
1/25_____+1.1___+1.4___-0.4___-4.8
2/1______+0.3___+1.0___-0.7___-4.3
2/8______-1.0___+0.4___-2.8___-5.1
2/15_____-1.1___+0.5___-1.9___-3.4
2/22 ____-2.4___+0.4___-3.5___-3.7
2/29_____-3.4___+0.4___-4.4___-4.6
3/7______-2.7___+0.4___-4.2___-0.4
3/14_____-3.2___-0.1___-5.4___-0.2
3/21_____-2.2___-0.3___-4.0___+1.6
3/28_____-1.3____0.0___-3.1___+3.7
4/4______-0.4___+0.3____0.0___-0.4
4/11_____+0.1___+0.8___-0.9___-3.0
4/18_____+0.8___+0.9___+0.5___-1.3
4/25_____+0.5___+0.4___+0.7___-4.2
5/2______+0.1___+0.3___-0.5___-5.8
5/9 _____-0.3___-0.2___+0.8___-5.3
5/16_____-1.3___-0.4___+0.7___-5.6
5/23_____-0.7___-0.4___+1.2___-2.9
5/30_____-1.1___-1.4___+1.6___+0.3
6/6______-1.3___-1.3___+0.7___+0.4
6/13_____-1.3___-1.8___-0.4___-1.9
6/20_____-2.3___-2.1___-1.1___-3.6
6/27_____-1.9___-1.7___-0.5___-3.5
7/4______-1.8___-2.1___+1.3___-2.2
7/11_____-2.0___-2.1___+2.5___-0.5
7/18_____-2.1___-2.4___+3.6___-2.5
7/25_____-2.4___-2.4___+4.0___-6.8
8/1______-2.6___-2.3___+3.5___-7.1
8/8______-2.8___-1.9___+4.3___-8.5
8/15_____-3.0___-1.6___+3.3___-6.2
8/22_____-3.6___-1.6___+2.2___-6.9
8/29_____-3.5___-1.6___+2.7___-9.3
9/5______-3.8___-2.1___-0.4____-7.6
9/12_____-4.4___-2.6___-2.7____-7.6
9/19_____-5.3___-3.5___-5.5____-4.5
9/26_____-7.1___-4.5___-8.4____-1.5
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9535
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 21:14:33

burtonridr wrote:Do you think the economy would be getting hit so hard if oil wasnt a portion of the problem? Seriously, think about it really hard... Oil played a role in where we are today. It might not have been what set off the chain reaction of events, but I believe it amplified them.

I'm waiting to see what happens in the northern states this winter vis a vis heating oil to see what the real impact of $100/barrel oil is. We're probably going to see the worst impact of peak oil in the home heating sector since it's a necessary expense, and retrofits require a lot of money up front which people don't have.
User avatar
mos6507
permanently banned
 
Posts: 9499
Joined: Fri 03 Aug 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Boston Suburbs

Re: Will demand distruction in cars be reflected in gas use?

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 21:20:35

Tyler_JC wrote:This begs the question, why did we need so many damned cars to begin with?

There is really a surplus of everything, not just cars. This will be a good thing in the long run as we enter into a barter/hand-me-down/salvage economy.
User avatar
mos6507
permanently banned
 
Posts: 9499
Joined: Fri 03 Aug 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Boston Suburbs

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby VMarcHart » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 21:29:42

mos6507 wrote:I'm waiting to see what happens in the northern states this winter vis a vis heating oil to see what the real impact of $100/barrel oil is.

And I'm waiting to see what happens at the end of the harvest season with $100 oil. Did farmers harvest 100% of their crops or let some standing because it was too expensive to harvest?
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
User avatar
VMarcHart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1644
Joined: Mon 26 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Now overpopulating California

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 21:44:27

VMarcHart wrote:
mos6507 wrote:I'm waiting to see what happens in the northern states this winter vis a vis heating oil to see what the real impact of $100/barrel oil is.
And I'm waiting to see what happens at the end of the harvest season with $100 oil. Did farmers harvest 100% of their crops or let some standing because it was too expensive to harvest?

With the harvest mostly over, US farmers harvested more wheat and more acres of wheat this year than last year (when oil was cheaper):
--> LINK <--
USDA sees wheat crop at just under 2.5 billion bushels Wednesday, October 1, 2008, 4:06 PM by John Perkins
The United States Department of Agriculture reports the 2008 U.S. wheat crop at a total of 2,499,524,000 bushels. That's compared to the 2007 total of 2.067 billion bushels. Prior to the report, estimates ranged from 2.421 billion to 2.475 billion bushels, with an average guess of 2.459 billion. The average yield is seen at 44.9 bushels per acre, compared to the 2007 average of 40.5 bpa. 2008's planted and harvested area was reported at 63.047 million and 55.685 million acres, respectively, compared to 2007's planted total of 60.433 million and the harvested area of 51.011 million acres.[...]

And according to this from about a week ago:
In a pair of reports, USDA said the corn and wheat stockpiles were larger than a year ago. This year's wheat crop totaled 2.5 billion bushels, up 2 percent from its previous report and the largest wheat crop in a decade.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9535
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 22:18:57

I suspect farming (and the trucking industry) will continue long after peak oil, but consumer prices will have to jump to reflect the higher overhead. I am frustrated by truckers who feel like they can't make ends meet because of fuel costs, because they are eating the overhead rather than passing it down the line. If farmers are doing the same thing, they are stupid. Same deal with the airlines. Everyone is in the same boat here. Everyone has to raise prices. You can't just sweep this under the rug forever.
User avatar
mos6507
permanently banned
 
Posts: 9499
Joined: Fri 03 Aug 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Boston Suburbs

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 04 Oct 2008, 01:04:34

mos6507 wrote: Everyone is in the same boat here. Everyone has to raise prices. You can't just sweep this under the rug forever.

How can you continue raising prices if the prices are already too high for people to afford? They simply stop buying all the services, the extraneous ones first like Vacations and ariline tickets, but they can't afford the basics like Shelter anymore either, or transportation to get to work.

Tons of empty houses around while tons of people are building tent cities. What is wrong with that picture? No Property Tax revenue for local communities to pay their Police Force or Sanitation Workers.

Ever evolving cascade failure. Moving through the society more rapidly all the time. Helicopter Ben cannot move around fast enough to keep up with it.
Reverse Engineer
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3353
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sat 04 Oct 2008, 01:23:38

ReverseEngineer wrote:How can you continue raising prices if the prices are already too high for people to afford?

Quite simple. Rising prices help people to prioritize their life. They will discover that wheat is really important and worth far more than they were paying for it, and anything found in Best Buy or Babies R Us isn't.[/quote]
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
User avatar
smallpoxgirl
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7258
Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 03:00:00

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 04 Oct 2008, 07:02:43

ReverseEngineer wrote:
mos6507 wrote: Everyone is in the same boat here. Everyone has to raise prices. You can't just sweep this under the rug forever.
How can you continue raising prices if the prices are already too high for people to afford? They simply stop buying all the services, the extraneous ones first like Vacations and ariline tickets, but they can't afford the basics like Shelter anymore either, or transportation to get to work.
Tons of empty houses around while tons of people are building tent cities. What is wrong with that picture? No Property Tax revenue for local communities to pay their Police Force or Sanitation Workers.
Ever evolving cascade failure. Moving through the society more rapidly all the time. Helicopter Ben cannot move around fast enough to keep up with it.

After your illustrious prediction...
ReverseEngineer wrote:If Congress reassembles in Washington after Rosh Hashanah [10/1] I will be astounded. I will bet they reconvene in a Bunker in some undisclosed location and vote Bush Dictator for Life.
...I'm having a hard time reading your posts.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
User avatar
VMarcHart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1644
Joined: Mon 26 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Now overpopulating California

Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 04 Oct 2008, 07:05:00

mos6507 wrote:Everyone has to raise prices.
Any indication price of crops went up with high oil? One thing is to harvest, the other is to sell it.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
User avatar
VMarcHart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1644
Joined: Mon 26 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Now overpopulating California

World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby cualcrees » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 12:45:51

I don't know if this has been posted already, if so, please delete it.

World will struggle to meet oil demand

"Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times."


Link
cualcrees
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 176
Joined: Wed 28 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Mexico

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 12:53:20

Looks like the cat's out of the bag already. We'll see how deep a swath this cuts through the MSM.
User avatar
mos6507
permanently banned
 
Posts: 9499
Joined: Fri 03 Aug 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Boston Suburbs

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 14:13:22

Unfortunate mos I doubt it will be covered until the election (and the recount) is over and gasoline/fuel oil starts rising again. Reporting dry statistics (no matter how critcal they might be) without a backdrop of long lines at the service stations or frozen bodies being removed from tenaments just doesn't "sell".
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11111
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 16:38:02

Everything will be alright. Just keep on consumin', and keep America humming towards the 22nd century! Star Trek is just around the horizon!
User avatar
Serial_Worrier
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1539
Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008, 02:00:00

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby Jotapay » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 16:48:31

9.1% is incredibly high. Like Mad Max-inducing.
Jotapay
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3394
Joined: Sat 21 Jun 2008, 02:00:00

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby Jotapay » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 16:54:03

A quick Excel table depicting that rate of decline, if my initial assumptions are correct.

Year Barrel/day (millions)
2008 84.5
2009 76.8105
2010 69.8207445
2011 63.46705675
2012 57.69155459
2013 52.44162312
2014 47.66943542
2015 43.33151679
2016 39.38834876
2017 35.80400903
2018 32.54584421
2019 29.58417238
2020 26.8920127

[s]The half-life of a 9.1% decay rate is about 7.5 years.[/s] That is a STEEP slope.

edit: I miscalculated the starting endpoint for my half-life estimate. I calculated the half-life at a 9.1% annual decay rate, and it's actually 6.6 years, even worse. Christ almighty. I hope that's not true or else we will see some really severe effects in just a few years.
Last edited by Jotapay on Wed 29 Oct 2008, 17:22:09, edited 2 times in total.
Jotapay
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3394
Joined: Sat 21 Jun 2008, 02:00:00

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby jupiters_release » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 17:08:23

breakneck speed

speechless
jupiters_release
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1260
Joined: Mon 10 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 17:16:36

Jotapay wrote:A quick Excel table depicting that rate of decline, if my initial assumptions are correct.

Year Barrel/day (millions)
2008 84.5
2009 76.8105
2010 69.8207445
2011 63.46705675
2012 57.69155459
2013 52.44162312
2014 47.66943542
2015 43.33151679
2016 39.38834876
2017 35.80400903
2018 32.54584421
2019 29.58417238
2020 26.8920127

The half-life of a 9.1% decay rate is about 7.5 years. That is a STEEP slope.


Anyone still believe in a slow crash?
User avatar
Daniel_Plainview
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4220
Joined: Tue 06 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: 7035 Hollis ... Near the Observatory ... Just down the way, tucked back in the small woods

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby Jotapay » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 17:24:35

I really hope there are some more nuanced details in that report. If the decline is as bad as the 2-sentence summary suggests, that is just incredible.
Jotapay
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3394
Joined: Sat 21 Jun 2008, 02:00:00

Re: World will struggle to meet oil demand

Unread postby Delphis » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 17:34:25

DoomWarrior wrote:
Jotapay wrote:A quick Excel table depicting that rate of decline, if my initial assumptions are correct.

Year Barrel/day (millions)
2008 84.5
2009 76.8105
2010 69.8207445
2011 63.46705675
2012 57.69155459
2013 52.44162312
2014 47.66943542
2015 43.33151679
2016 39.38834876
2017 35.80400903
2018 32.54584421
2019 29.58417238
2020 26.8920127

The half-life of a 9.1% decay rate is about 7.5 years. That is a STEEP slope.


Anyone still believe in a slow crash?


Doesn't lend much creedence to the "Plateau Theory" unless of course we have been on the plateau for a great deal of time?
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."....Albert Einstein
User avatar
Delphis
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 169
Joined: Tue 09 Sep 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Hobbiton, but it's looking more like Mordor by the day...oh! hey Sauron, I didn't see you behind me!

Next

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests