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THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 23:24:35

I have been watching the ups and downs in VMT with great interest since I made my Longbet five years ago.
This is the year it will be resolved. If VMT this year exceeds that of 2005 I lose.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 02:12:30

VMT going up is a little bittersweet. Even with such news, there's still hope for the hardcore doomers, though, as it brings on the end, faster. :twisted:
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby lowem » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 03:19:33

In other news, China's car sales jumped 71% and more recently have reportedly jumped over 100% year-on-year. Whatever reduction in demand from my American friends, my distant Chinese relations seem more than happy to make up for in demand increases on their end.

On the other hand, the recent (un?)-expected fall in consumer demand in the US might cause ripples on the Chinese side of things. it would be a good test of whether the rise of the fabled Chinese consumer is mythical or actual in nature.
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 11:05:25

No sweat folks..REALLY! Dont you know we've reached peak demand? :)
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 12:03:06

I think at some point I predicted that when oil production declines, that the excuse used would be that demand has gone down.
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 14:17:11

"Honestly folks, as soon as demand exceeds production we will increase production. . . " :roll:
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 16:08:57

Just because vehicle miles traveled is starting to rise does not mean gasoline consumption is starting to rise.

Image

All those Priuses and hybrid Escapes can start to add up, you know.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 22:16:54

OilFinder2 wrote:Just because vehicle miles traveled is starting to rise does not mean gasoline consumption is starting to rise.

Image

All those Priuses and hybrid Escapes can start to add up, you know.


And how many Ta Ta nanos will it take to eat up all that gas only the rich people manage to slowly begin to save? 8O Look at how many cars China will buy in just the next few years.

Your chart has to include the reference that since 2007 we have been engaged in the worst US recession since GD1. All in context my good man, all in context!
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 22:36:36

AirlinePilot wrote:And how many Ta Ta nanos will it take to eat up all that gas only the rich people manage to slowly begin to save? 8O Look at how many cars China will buy in just the next few years.

Ummm, the title of this thread is "U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise." Last time I looked, people in China and India don't comsume the oil being burned in the gas tanks of American drivers. :o
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 25 Feb 2010, 00:40:10

The Escape gets 35.47% or 29.05% better mileage than a typical SUV, depending on whether it's 2WD or 4WD. Hybrids are .6-.7% of the US vehicle fleet so their impact to date is pretty marginal. The peak of gasoline supplied was for the week of Aug 17, 2007, at 9,762 kb/d; Feb 19th 2010 was 92.8% of that value.

On a monthly averaged basis June 1978 was the local peak for its era at 7913 kb/d; with rising gasoline prices product supplied dropped sharply to 6662 kb/d in October 1980, 29 months later, at 84.19% of the peak value. This was far ahead of the recession which began in Q4 1980. The latest monthly peak was July '07, 9640 kb/d; 29 months later in Nov '09 it was 8871 kb/d, 92.02% of that peak, so your contention that efficiency is driving the decline this time isn't sufficiently explanatory. CAFE regulations had their strongest impact in the late 70s/early 80s, 78-80 mandated gains were 5.26%/5.00%/9.09%, for a smaller population and vehicle fleet. Stronger efficiency mandates begin next year. VMT shift in the late 70s was barely perceptible despite a drop in vehicle sales.
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 25 Feb 2010, 19:16:30

OilFinder2 wrote:
AirlinePilot wrote:And how many Ta Ta nanos will it take to eat up all that gas only the rich people manage to slowly begin to save? 8O Look at how many cars China will buy in just the next few years.

Ummm, the title of this thread is "U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise." Last time I looked, people in China and India don't comsume the oil being burned in the gas tanks of American drivers. :o


And I agree OF but Im just remarking that we can do anything we want here in the US but the global picture is still important. I see far too much emphassis placed on what we do here in the US and its like we are in a vacuum or something. We may get a bit more efficient here but that slack in global usage created will get used up somehwere else quite quickly. That is all Im saying. A lot of folks seem to just shut out that larger picture, it's important.
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Re: U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 25 Feb 2010, 22:18:06

One other thing that should be taken into account - the article which opened this thread said that vehicle miles driven in September-December rose compared to a year earlier (which would be Sept-Dec 2008).

However, recall that the 2 hurricanes which hit the southeast in the fall of 2008 restricted gasoline supplies for a while, and thus restricted driving. So, the year-earlier period which these stats are being compared to wasn't quite a "normal" year-earlier period.

IMO we should wait until the spring before making any judgments. Even the winter storms in the Northeast and Midwest we've been seeing the past month or two could have some impact on miles driven for this year, it would seem.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think...

Unread postby davep » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 04:34:15

Soaring Costs 'Forcing Drivers Off Road'

Some 1.3 million people have been driven off the UK's roads this year as a result of rising motoring costs, according to new research.

The staggering figure, released by Sainsbury's Car Insurance, suggests one in 30 drivers have given up their cars over the past 12 months.

The report found the average car owner is now spending around £1,720 annually to fuel their vehicle - a rise of almost 23% year-on-year.

It says three quarters of motorists have changed their driving habits in the last 12 months to accomodate the rise in bills, including 30% increases in insurance premiums.

Sainsbury's puts the average cost of running a car annually at over £3,000 - a rise of 21% on a year ago.

The UK has 31 million registered licence holders with 27 million cars, according to the AA .

The motoring organisation believes the claim that there are now 1.3 million fewer cars on the roads is "unlikely" but it agrees with the findings that the vast majority of drivers have cut their costs.

AA President Edmund King said: "Although the AA figures broadly support the level of fuel-price hardship illustrated by this new survey, it is unlikely that one in 30 drivers no longer get behind the wheel.

"That in itself would be a growing disaster for retailers who rely on their customers to go to out-of-town superstores."

In the study, 26% admitted not filling their petrol tanks while 45% were driving less often.

10% - that is 3.5 million people - had downgraded their car for one that is cheaper to run.

The squeeze on consumers - a result of rising inflation - is mainly down to higher oil prices feeding into the wider economy at a time of slower wage growth.

The average cost of petrol has fallen back from record highs earlier this year but the latest figures from Experian Catalist suggest unleaded currently stands at 133.68p a litre while diesel costs 137.59p.

Mr King said: "Clearly, petrol costing more than 130p a litre is more than a significant number of drivers can afford, but modern society depends on a high level of mobility.

"With alternative transport either being cut back or becoming more expensive, the AA thinks most drivers will hold on to their cars."

He continued: "They may leave the more thirsty car in the garage or at the top of the drive, but families cling on to the hope that somehow things will get better."


http://uk.news.yahoo.com/soaring-costs-forcing-drivers-off-road-060942591.html

I also heard that in 2008 French demand plummeted. It's interesting to note that the article mentions people using out-of-town supermarkets less.
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Re: Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think..

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 07:34:44

The UK has experiances 4.5% inflation and no wage increases. There has been a contraction in available personal credit. The working poor (£12 000 - about £25 000) will be feeling one god awful squeeze underway.
Many will live where they can get the bus to do the messages. No suprise some are going that way. UK urban archatecture up till the 60s was not car dominated so much of our housing stock was desgined when walking to the high street was still an option.

That said high street shops are being decimated.
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Re: Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think..

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 08:49:54

$40,000 year is working poor? WTF........
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Re: Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think..

Unread postby sjn » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 09:19:58

vision-master wrote:$40,000 year is working poor? WTF........

dorlomin is referring to household income, not personal income, I believe.
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Re: Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think..

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 09:21:33

vision-master wrote:$40,000 year is working poor? WTF........
£1000 a month on rent for a 3 bed flat.
Then there will be council tax, transport, food and on and on.
For single parents in London £25 000 is cutting it fine. In Sheffield or Manchester things are likely much easier on that kind of money.
Food inflation is running at just shy 6%.
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Re: Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think..

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 09:38:29

We ain't far behind the UK here in the States. :|
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Re: Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think..

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 10:59:36

People never did need to go out of town for groceries or to the pizzeria on friday or wherever it is they were going with those gallons of demand that have been "destroyed".

Society itself continues to function but one of the baggers at the out of town market is now unemployed, along with a table mopper at the pizzeria.

The overall economy itself isn't going to break down at the first strains of expensive energy, personal economies are a different story.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Oil demand could be more elastic than we used to think..

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 06 Jul 2011, 11:09:22

Pops wrote:People never did need to go out of town for groceries or to the pizzeria on friday or wherever it is they were going with those gallons of demand that have been "destroyed".

Society itself continues to function but one of the baggers at the out of town market is now unemployed, along with a table mopper at the pizzeria.

The overall economy itself isn't going to break down at the first strains of expensive energy, personal economies are a different story.
I don't know Pops. Sometimes you seem to be debating yourself here. :razz: Neither the article nor the comments made reference to the overall economy breaking down, especially at the first strains of expensive energy. Maybe the second? But thanks for making the obvious link between personal economies and aggregate economies otherwise known as the "neighborhood" or "us" or "my friends and family."
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