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THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Oil demand: Beware the gap

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 15:04:37



Peak oil demand has swiftly moved from concept to potential to symbolic talisman—and it means different things to different people. Most often, the debate centres on the year when this peak may occur. Is it 2025? 2035? And these days the discussion never fails to mention electric vehicles, which—runs the argument—will eat away at oil's market presence. But there are other significant things to worry about in the much shorter term. And for companies, this attempt to identify the year of the peak—and what will happen to the 20% or so share of the market that would be affected by transport electrification—is simply not granular enough to be of use. It also ignores what's been going on in the market. Global oil-demand growth in 2017 is likely to come in at around 1.6m barrels a day, a number well above the


Oil demand: Beware the gap
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 15:25:14

chris-h wrote:
"One of the biggest challenges will be to find the giant projects of the next decade, which will put great pressure on the search for high-quality, significant opportunities that in themselves meet the criteria of 'big," Esser and Jackson said.

After analyzing the data, Cera predicted that the capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise to 45.6 million barrels per day in 2010 from 36.8 million barrels per day in 2004.

The analysts expect non-OPEC capacity to quickly increase by the end of the decade with additions of 7.5 million barrels per day to 55.8 million barrels per day, as there are about 20 to 30 major projects coming on line every year between now and the end of the decade.

"The balance of supply over demand has the potential to expand significantly over the next five years, and this could drive oil prices to the downside," the authors found. "If demand growth averages a relatively strong 2.2% through 2010, prices could weaken from recent record highs and slip well
below $40 a barrel as 2007 to 2008 nears."



Non opec has already peaked.


Oops.

Just have to love some of these old threads. The certainty in things that aren't true...just so...RELIGIOUS..in nature.

chris_h wrote:Additions of 7.5 million barrels for non opec ?
Where ? from the moon ?


No. How about most from the US. BBWWAAAHHAAAAHHAAAA!!!!

chris_h wrote:And opec will produce 8 million more barrels ?
From where ? Saoudi Arabia production cannot produce more.
It is the usual business as usual scenario.
Pure bull$hit.


Yes. And what happened next? Not only more BAU, but more supply, glut and lower prices!!

Want to play again, under a different username, in order to avoid the embarrassment this one has caused?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Re:

Unread postby GHung » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 15:36:01

AdamB wrote:
chris-h wrote:
"One of the biggest challenges will be to find the giant projects of the next decade, which will put great pressure on the search for high-quality, significant opportunities that in themselves meet the criteria of 'big," Esser and Jackson said.

After analyzing the data, Cera predicted that the capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise to 45.6 million barrels per day in 2010 from 36.8 million barrels per day in 2004.

The analysts expect non-OPEC capacity to quickly increase by the end of the decade with additions of 7.5 million barrels per day to 55.8 million barrels per day, as there are about 20 to 30 major projects coming on line every year between now and the end of the decade.

"The balance of supply over demand has the potential to expand significantly over the next five years, and this could drive oil prices to the downside," the authors found. "If demand growth averages a relatively strong 2.2% through 2010, prices could weaken from recent record highs and slip well
below $40 a barrel as 2007 to 2008 nears."



Non opec has already peaked.


Oops.

Just have to love some of these old threads. The certainty in things that aren't true...just so...RELIGIOUS..in nature.

chris_h wrote:Additions of 7.5 million barrels for non opec ?
Where ? from the moon ?


No. How about most from the US. BBWWAAAHHAAAAHHAAAA!!!!

chris_h wrote:And opec will produce 8 million more barrels ?
From where ? Saoudi Arabia production cannot produce more.
It is the usual business as usual scenario.
Pure bull$hit.


Yes. And what happened next? Not only more BAU, but more supply, glut and lower prices!!

Want to play again, under a different username, in order to avoid the embarrassment this one has caused?


Question is, why do you love rubbing peoples' noses in their failures? Where I come from, that's a character flaw. It implies that you've never been wrong about anything. People like that aren't welcome at my fire, especially ones who work as hard at it as you do.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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India Will Lead Global Oil Demand By 2035

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 23:06:02

Oil market participants and analysts have been closely watching the record level of supply coming out of the United States that is threatening to undo OPEC’s production cuts. But in the latter part of 2017 and early in 2018, robust oil demand growth — both in emerging markets and OECD economies — has supported oil prices as much as the cartel’s production restraint and the weakening U.S. dollar. Traditionally, all eyes have been fixated on China and the pace of its oil demand and imports growth, but lately India has grabbed global attention after its oil imports rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. Projections of India’s long-term energy and oil consumption are also optimistic, and India is already a major oil demand growth driver. In China, January crude oil imports jumped to a new record of 9.57


India Will Lead Global Oil Demand By 2035
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 10:11:39

From what I have observed India is about 5 years behind China on the growth curve. When you look at standard of living measured in things like number of cars per population as an indicator you see the USA/Canada/EU nations all went through a bloom phase in the early to mid 20th century and then came to a slow growth roughly paralleling population expansion once market saturation too place. The standard Sigmoid or S curve. Then if you keep looking at industrialized or industrializing nations you will see that later in the 20th century Japan experienced the same bloom in the Vietnam war era followed by South Korea later in the 20th century. China got started on the bloom phase around 2005 and is still in the rapid growth phase and India has now by appearances joined in before China has completed its build out.

Given that China alone has as many potential car owners (or washing machine owners if you prefer) as the EU and North America combined it is inevitable that demand for physical resources is at an all time high. India has about 85 percent as many potential consumers as China has so adding them as well mean that we are trying to transition from a world where 1 Billion people more or less live in a high energy lifestyle to a world where 4 Billion do the same just by adding China and India to the collection. Even then there are still around a Billion more people in Africa who want a high energy lifestyle plus half a Billion in South America and another 2 Billion in Asia outside the four countries already discussed (Japan, South Korea, China, India).

All these potential consumers need energy and they are tired of being told no. China alone last year added more new automobiles to its fleet than all of North America combined! With India now coming on strong the growth in demand of 1.5 MM/bbl/d projected for the next few years may turn out to be hopelessly optimistic when seen through the rear view mirror in 2028.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Oil Demand Strong Into 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 22:19:50

Oil demand will remain strong through at least 2020, pushing spot costs for crude above futures pricing. That’s the message from Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities and derivative research. Electric vehicles won’t start biting into oil demand until at least 2020, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview Monday. Blanch expects China to push electric vehicles in its quest for cleaner fuels, but said the technology still needs three to four years to make prices comparable with internal combustion engine vehicles. China is “going to have a massive geopolitical exposure to global energy," Blanch said. "They need to wean themselves off the foreign fuel dependency problem they have." bloomberg


Oil Demand Strong Into 2020
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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India, China to fuel 50% of rise in global oil demand in 5 y

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 16:50:00


India and China are set to contribute nearly 50 per cent to the increase in the global demand for oil over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report on oil sector for 2018. According to IEA, demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd) until 2023, as the oil demand would reach 104.7 mbd, up by 6.9 mb day from 2018. “As China’s economy becomes more consumer-oriented, the rate of growth in oil demand slows down to 2023, compared with the 2010-17 period. By comparison, the pace of oil demand growth will pick up slightly in India,” it says. The report says that though there is no peak oil demand in sight, the pace of growth will slow down to 1 mb per day by 2023


India, China to fuel 50% of rise in global oil demand in 5 years
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Global oil demand in 2017 grew fastest in a decade

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 24 Mar 2018, 19:33:17


Global oil demand rose by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2017, growing at 1.6 per cent, more than twice the average annual growth rate seen in a decade, International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report. The Paris based agency said in its Global Energy and CO2 status report 2017 that more than 60 per cent of the growth in oil demand came from Asia, with China and India being the biggest demand centres. It added that one of the main drivers of growth was the transport sector and petrochemical sector. The report said that even though electric cars are making rapid inroads, particularly in China, which is leading in global sales of electric cars the strong growth in electric-car sales remains too small to make a dent in oil demand growth. IEA reiterated that a slowdown in oil demand growth may


Global oil demand in 2017 grew fastest in a decade
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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