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THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 29 Oct 2023, 16:46:14

The costs and benefits into Japan's Nuclearization.
https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-con ... 82kase.pdf

Since the end of the 1950s, Japan has made clear that it will maintain the right to develop
its nuclear arsenal. “This strategy - ‘lying between nuclear pursuit and nuclear rollback’ - is the
essence of ‘the most salient example of nuclear hedging’ among global powers”

TOKYO 2020 -- Japan was in possession of a total of some 46.1 metric tons of plutonium at home and abroad as of the end of 2020. Plutonium is extracted from spent nuclear fuel generated at nuclear plants, for the purpose of recycling. However, the international community has expressed concerns over Japan's large plutonium stockpile, saying it could be converted into nuclear weapons.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20 ... na/018000c

Japan has amassed enough plutonium to make 6,000 atomic bombs as part of a program to fuel its nuclear plants, but concern is growing that the stockpile is vulnerable to terrorists and natural disasters.

Japan has long been the world's only non-nuclear-armed country with a program to reprocess spent nuclear fuel from its power plants into plutonium.

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-japan-plu ... fuels.html

Japan's missing plutonium

1994
A non-proliferation group asked the US State Department to seek the shutdown of a Japanese nuclear fuel plant where 70kg (154lb) of plutonium - enough for nine atomic bombs - is unaccounted for.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 34881.html

2003
About 200 kilograms of plutonium produced by a Japanese nuclear plant - enough to make 25 nuclear bombs - have technically gone "missing", Japanese authorities have revealed. But Tokyo and the United Nations' nuclear watchdog maintain that the shortfall is the result of miscalculation and measuring errors, rather than the plutonium being diverted for weapons production.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/missing ... dv57t.html

You know what I think? I think Japan has a nuclear arsenal. And I know they have to tech to send them anywhere, even to the Moon if they chose. For a thousand years they have been a militaristic people and WWII was a huge loss of face for them. It's only logical, given the evidence, that they would have a secret nuclear program much like the Israeli's (Never Again!) Not secret form the world's intelligence services of course, just secret from the average person in the street. For which it is none of their business anyway.

Moon Sniper: Japan launches Slim probe on precision landing mission, Smart Lander for Investigating Moon will aim to touch down within an unprecedented 100 metres of its target
https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... slim-probe
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 29 Oct 2023, 17:53:49

I have no doubt Japan has the ability to build one or more nuclear explosives within 90 days of the decision to do so.

That being said the only Japanese plutonium production reactor was the Monju which had the break down every few months syndrome. Of course repair wok would be the ideal time to switch out a few kg of weapon material quietly, but how would anyone know for certain? Being mysterious makes China, North Korea and other cautious without actually admitting to anything.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 12 Nov 2023, 07:44:03

“The Nuclear Wild West”
A podcast from Nate Hagan's The Great Simplification website

Chuck Watson: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/ ... uck-watson

On this episode, Nate is re-joined by risk expert Chuck Watson for a candid discussion of recent news regarding the nuclear developments between Russia and the United States. As the world’s attention is focused on the events in the Middle East, US testing and development of new nuclear weapons and Russia’s decision to pull out of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty last week have been overlooked and underreported by major media. Yet, in the bigger picture these trends represent some of the most imminent risks to life on Earth as we know it. What is the history behind this framework of trust that took decades to develop, and how quickly might our current fear spiral destroy it? Are the people in positions of power aware of the dangers of this situation and acting with appropriate caution? What should concerned individuals and leaders understand and advocate for to minimize this truly existential risk?
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 13 Nov 2023, 22:17:39

Evangelicals have a lot of political influence and they basically are waiting for the resurrection after Armageddon,that makes it a scary mix.
...................
The Seven Mountain Mandate, also Seven Mountains Mandate,is a dominionist conservative Christian movement within Pentecostal and evangelical Christianity.
It espouses there are seven aspects of society which believers seek to influence: family, religion, education, media, entertainment, business, and government.
Followers believe that by fulfilling the Seven Mountain Mandate they can bring about the end times.

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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 22 Mar 2024, 14:33:01

Nuclear weapons are the least of our concerns. The biggest concern is perhaps overpopulation IMO. Just saying.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Fri 22 Mar 2024, 15:05:46

Image

Large scale use of nuclear weapons would mitigate overpopulation.

Even with the large wars in the 20th Century population doubled several times:

Between 1900 and 2000, the population of the world increased by 277%, a fourfold increase from 1.5 billion to 6 billion.


The 21st century, or perhaps the 22nd century if you are an optimist, will see many more items from the right hand column of the above image (LOL "Smoking").
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 22 Mar 2024, 21:26:31

Nuclear war would mitigate more than that.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 23 Mar 2024, 09:47:53

DesuMaiden wrote:Nuclear weapons are the least of our concerns. The biggest concern is perhaps overpopulation IMO. Just saying.


Yes, but not on a personal level I would think. Everyone talks about "The World" like they actually give a shit but what they really care about is their own backyard. It's why when nuclear is so obviously a practical way to keep the lights on for the next century they are all for it, as long as it's not in their own back yard. Europe was overpopulated for it's resource base in the fourteen hundred, big problems with energy, Wood. The black death solved that logjam though.

Image
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 24 Mar 2024, 17:13:25

I have slowly come around to Tanada's way of thinking on nuclear power, not that I believe it's inherently safe, but desperation calls for desperate measures and for civilization to keep the lights on in the centuries ahead the technology is the best hope. But it's lagging in development, everywhere it seems.

The West’s Nuclear Power Revival Could Be Slower Than Hoped

...The West has seen in recent years several cautionary tales of huge delays and cost overruns in looking to boost nuclear capacity. Two of the glaring examples are the UK’s Hinkley Point C project by French energy giant EDF and the Vogtle nuclear power plant in the U.S. state of Georgia.

Early this year, EDF pushed back – again – the probable operational start at Hinkley Point C to 2029-2031, depending on various scenarios, compared to the original intention to have the first unit at the plan running in 2025. The costs have gone through the roof – to an estimated $43.5 billion (£34 billion), from $23 billion (£18 billion) budgeted initially.
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy ... Hoped.html

And it isn't just the case of build them at any cost because of, Nation security etc etc. These are basically commercial ventures that rely on profitable sales of electricity to homes and business for the most part. If the profit isn't there, then why build them? Let the masses sit in the dark. Critical infrastructure and elite estates can always be powered by small plants and wind and solar, many wealthy enclaves already have their own wind or solar supply.

South Africa: The Coral Beach Estate homeowners' association has entered into a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with an independent power provider (IPP) "Impower" to solve its energy issues.
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/artic ... 2023-03-14

Just because we believe we deserve something in this life doesn't mean we will get it. We as people of advanced nations deserve good public services but it's been admitted that it would take $500B just to bring the national grid in the US back up to scratch, $21 trillion for the world as a whole. Forget the roads and bridges, water and sewage infrastructure. If they can't afford, or choose not to afford this $500B to rebuild the US grid what hope is there of spending a similar amount on new nuclear plants? It's why I put little hope in these projects.

It's all just a part of the bigger peakoil picture isn't it, but many cornucopians have forgotten their lessons. The work of the early peakoilers wasn't "Debunked" ,it was simply politicized and dismissed as irrelevant by a nation addicted to takeaway food and magic technologies.

Image

Image

South Africa: The Coral Beach Estate
Image

Look at the homes. This is a cheap gated estate, there are some fabulously wealthy ones in S.A.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ition.html
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Sun 24 Mar 2024, 17:53:56

Image

How long can Western countries maintain reliable electrical generation? 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? Place your bets.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 06 Apr 2024, 14:51:44

Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen

Very recent with access to recently unclassified goodies.. or baddies as you might say.

I actually got emotional a couple times reading it, and I'm not normally inclined to such expressions when reading a book. Solidly researched and documented at the end if you have any questions about where something came from.

Recommended.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Sat 06 Apr 2024, 15:52:16

Here is Annie Jacobsen in video interview format.

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:20 The Chance Of Nuclear War in 2024
03:30 Is Ignorance Bliss?
11:00 The First 24 Minutes Of A Nuclear Attack
13:30 How Suddenly Could Nuclear War Begin?
17:00 The Nine Nuclear Nations
17:50 Preppers & Bunkers
22:30 The Official US Government Advice
25:50 Nuclear War Affects Everyone
28:30 President's Nuclear Training
31:40 The Nuclear Button
36:05 Brian Cox's Message To World Leaders
39:30 A Life Worth Living
41:00 Connect With Annie
Last edited by jato0072 on Sat 06 Apr 2024, 15:57:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Sat 06 Apr 2024, 15:56:03

I listened to this one; 3 hours of Annie Jacobsen interviewed by Lex Fridman.


0:00 - Introduction
2:13 - Nuclear war
6:57 - Launch procedure
12:36 - Deterrence
16:09 - Tactical nukes
25:35 - Nuclear submarines
28:35 - Nuclear missiles
35:46 - Nuclear football
44:53 - Missile interceptor system
49:10 - North Korea
55:46 - Nuclear war scenarios
1:04:38 - Warmongers
1:09:06 - President's cognitive ability
1:15:19 - Refusing orders
1:23:17 - Russia and Putin
1:28:23 - Cyberattack
1:29:45 - Ground zero of nuclear war
1:34:24 - Surviving nuclear war
1:38:42 - Nuclear winter
1:49:05 - Alien civilizations
1:54:40 - Extrasensory perception
2:08:25 - Area 51
2:12:23 - UFOs and aliens
2:22:51 - Roswell incident
2:29:30 - CIA assassinations
2:48:23 - Navalny
2:50:48 - KGB
2:57:24 - Hitler and the atomic bomb
3:01:27 - War and human nature
3:04:53 - Hope
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 06 Apr 2024, 19:20:00

I was going to drop this in the Happy Talk thread but here seemed more appropriate.

World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided
If you’re getting the feeling like the globalists are really pushing hard for WWIII these days, you’re not alone. In the past few months there has been multiple instances of European and US officials hinting at the possibility of a new military draft, the EU has talked openly about boots on the ground in Ukraine, NATO officials have stated unequivocally that they WILL NOT accept a loss in Ukraine to the Russians and the Kremlin has warned once again that nuclear weapons are on the table if western troops enter the war. The US government has recently asserted that Ukraine will be joining NATO, a red line in the sand for Russia.

Then there’s Israel and Gaza. I warned months ago in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian “embassy” or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.

In other words, much like WWI, the situation is being escalated by the political elites despite the fact that the general public in the west is increasingly opposed to participating in the conflict. The globalists want to send us to war whether we like it or not. Every decision they have made so far makes peaceful resolution impossible.
https://alt-market.us/world-war-iii-is- ... e-avoided/
Obviously, some of this is based purely on fear – A large percentage of Gen Z is unequipped mentally or physically to go to war, which is why more than 70% of potential military recruits today are rejected before they even get to boot camp. These are many of the same young people who post Ukrainian flags to their social media profiles and jump headfirst into anti-Russian rhetoric, but now that they are faced with the possibility of having to sacrifice themselves for Ukraine they are angry and terrified.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 06 Apr 2024, 22:43:34

Its seems to me that the West is bound and determined to get Russia into a position where it must choose between dissolution and apocalypse. Maybe they honestly believe that once Russia gets to that state of being, they will choose to quietly dissolve into a small myriad of manageable countries and surrender.

I believe differently.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Apr 2024, 14:46:33

Funny, I would have said it the other way round.

No matter, we agree that a confrontation seems inevitable.

It will be very interesting to watch, most likely too interesting.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 07 Apr 2024, 14:59:48

I've spoken here much about the BRICS, though no one seems interested in the topic? And though they are expanding rapidly they have as yet no codified monetary or military agreements. Perhaps the West, the dying debt choked west is trying an end run before they do organize?
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 07 Apr 2024, 15:26:51

Newfie wrote:Funny, I would have said it the other way round.
No matter, we agree that a confrontation seems inevitable.


Are you suggesting Putin thinks NATO would somehow disintegrate over the foreseeable next few years? Seems hard for me to even consider such a thing; he'd have to be blind and foolish, and I don't think he's either. Malevolent or paranoid towards the West, more like, but he knows how dependent the alliance is on the US and each other...

Incomprehensible to me.

Even his suggested "diplomatic" resolution envisages the continuing existence of NATO.

I think we do agree that in the end it won't matter who's fault it is. In Annie's words after launch, "what's done is done." My cushy life comes to an end, as does that of hundreds of millions of Americans.

I think she's wrong though in thinking there could be disarmament of some sort; the weaker party (Russia) can't afford to give up its Nuclear deterrent for fear of being destroyed in a conventional war with NATO. The strays like Pakistan and North Korea similarly, have local issues that lock them into keeping Nuclear weapons, ready to launch, again being the conventionally weaker party.

So I don't know of a solution, it seems horrifically locked in, as if by fate. And I despise the entire concept of "fate"...
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Sun 07 Apr 2024, 22:05:32

I've spoken here much about the BRICS, though no one seems interested in the topic?


BRICS is interesting. Just the fact the $USD is being openly challenged by major economies is saying a lot. It is obvious the GAE is trying to contain China, but it will eventually fail. A Thucydides's Trap.
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Re: THE Nuclear Weapons/War Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 08 Apr 2024, 03:27:40

jato0072 wrote:
BRICS is interesting. Just the fact the $USD is being openly challenged by major economies is saying a lot. It is obvious the GAE is trying to contain China, but it will eventually fail. A Thucydides's Trap.


Ahh, you make me google words. It's interesting how the former empires' often facilitate the rise of the new ones by exporting technology to them during a time of mutual friendship. That was the case with China, U.S. corps going in there and building highteck factories, importing the best Japanese machine tools robots and software. All just to maximize profit with cheap labor and low taxes and non-existent regulations hindering them. Yes I can see why they went lol. Western nations in their goodness have priced themselves out of everything. Down here there are as many people holding lollipop signs at roadworks as there are actual road workers, each roadside mowing tractor must be preceded and followed by a small ute with warning signs and flashing lights.

Then there is the health and safety regulation imposed on light industry that has gotten so insane that all manner of workshops and factories have just closed up shop, the owners choosing early retirement rather than risk jail time because an apprentice does something dumb and gets killed on the job.

Doesn't leave much room for innovation in industry I'm afraid.
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