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THE Nigeria Thread pt 2 (merged)

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THE Nigeria Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 14:24:28

Plantagenet wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:does it really matter if some speculators buying and selling futures contracts paid a dollar or two or even $10 too much for oil?


The rich speculator story matters because it allows the Congress to put the blame for high oil prices on big oil and the evil "rich speculators". It provides the political cover for the Obama campaign and the democrats in Congress to avoid taking any substantive action at all about high oil prices.


Further since US politicians are publicly saying this, OPEC itself can blame the speculators and look like it's telling the truth.

I'm afraid with so much disinformation being spread in the public media, that when shortages start to occur, the government will take irrational actions that will make the situation worse.

But then that won't surprise many here, both most ordinary people will be angry that the government can't control oil and energy prices - and even more angry that they can't get enough gas to go to work when that time comes.

PS Thank prariemule for that interesting first hand report.
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Re: Another Nigerian Pipeline Bombing/Operation Cyclone

Unread postby PrairieMule » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 14:33:53

Dreamtwister wrote:
For security reasons, they have to use foriegn security guards, and that reduces the manpower pool even more.


Because of British colonialism and corruption oil companies must use Nigerian regular army. Nigeria has trouble funding it's army so security for oil companies is a old tried and true nigerian shakedown. Any armed foriegn security forces only carry sidearms while the nigerian army carries the automatic weapons and machine guns.
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Re: Nigerian rebels declare 'Oil War'

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 23 Jun 2008, 03:38:25

<b>Nigerian white-collar workers go on strike at Chevron</b>

Nigeria's senior white-collar oil workers began a strike against Chevron's local unit after weeks of talks collapsed, union officials said.

Jonathan Omare, secretary of the local Chevron union, said a full-scale strike had begun, though production was not yet affected. ''The strike is everywhere,'' Omare said by telephone. ''Nobody's working apart from the guys in the field.''

In a letter sent to Chevron executives in California, the union is demanding that Fred Nelson, the head of the Nigerian unit, be removed. It's also alleging that safety standards have lapsed and Nigerian employees have been replaced with expatriates.

link


<b>Oil prices rise after Jeddah summit</b>

World oil prices have risen in Asia after militants blew up a Nigerian oil pipeline, intensifying concerns about tight global crude supplies despite Saudi Arabia's output hike.

But experts said there were other sources of tension in the oil market counteracting the Saudi output hike.

"It's really not too significant compared to the disruption in Nigeria," said Victor Shum of Purvin and Gertz international energy consultancy in Singapore.

Militants in Nigeria blew up a key Chevron oil supply pipeline in the latest attack targeting the country's oil industry, company and military sources said Saturday.

The US oil giant was forced to shut down operations after the attack in the volatile Niger Delta, halting output by 120,000 barrels per day, an industry source said.

The Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell has also said it cannot promise to deliver 225,000 barrels per day for June and July following an unprecedented raid on its offshore Bonga oilfield.

Unrest in the Niger Delta has cut total oil production in one of Africa's biggest producers by a quarter over the past two years.

"There were no concrete measures that would change the structural tightness in global oil markets," Shum said of the summit in Jeddah.

Neither were there measures to address geopolitical factors that have also helped boost prices, Shum said.

Among those factors are worries about a possible Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

"With further threat of attack on Iran from Israel and further supply disruptions in Nigeria, the oil price is now destined to rise further," said John Hall, who runs energy consultancy John Hall Associates.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=237897
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Mon 23 Jun 2008, 12:08:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Nigerian rebels declare 'Oil War'

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 23 Jun 2008, 12:05:53

<b>Niger Delta Crisis is Out of Control</b>

The Action Congress says the Niger Delta crisis has spun out of control with the unexpected attack on Shell's deep offshore Bonga oil field last Thursday.

A statement issued in Abuja yesterday by its National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Moham-med said "This hitherto unimaginable attack has finally turned the Niger Delta violence to a crisis of immense proportion that can only spell doom for the Nigerian state".

It called for a probe into the circumstances leading to the attack on such a deep offshore facility by a supposedly rag-tag band of militants.

"Since the militants' favoured means of mobility - speedboats - will find it difficult to travel that far offshore, such a probe must find out how the militants were able to reach Bonga. Could they have been assisted by a mother vessel? If so, who owns such vessel?

"As we have said many times through this medium, the real solution to what is fast becoming a declaration of war in the Niger Delta is for the federal government to talk to the REAL stakeholders, not the so-called elders whose stock in trade is to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds to maximise their gains.

"We also make bold to say that past, made-for-television summits on the Niger Delta have yielded no positive results. Bringing in even the secretariat of the UN will not make a success of another summit for as long as the real stakeholders - the people in the oil communities themselves - are not involved in such an effort," AC said.

The party said the attack on Bonga, which is located hundreds of kilometres offshore, has shown that the militants in the Niger Delta could attack, without qualms, any facility that catches their fancy in the Niger Delta.

The attack, it said, has also shown that the military option cannot and will not work in resolving the crisis that has been the biggest threat yet to Nigeria's economic well being. Afterall, thousands of soldiers have been deployed to the region to help protect the same facilities that are being attacked at will by these militants.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200806231257.html
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Re: Current oil shut ins are beginning to add up

Unread postby cipi604 » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 01:09:25

They pay nigerians peanuts or what? No wonder they strike.
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Re: Current oil shut ins are beginning to add up

Unread postby hope_full » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 07:23:24

Pardon my ignorance, but what is a "Shut In"? Is it a political or mechanical stoppage?
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Re: Current oil shut ins are beginning to add up

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 07:45:41

hope_full wrote:Pardon my ignorance, but what is a "Shut In"? Is it a political or mechanical stoppage?


Shut-in usually means oil facilities like wells, pumps, pieplines, etc., that were working are not being used due to some type of unexpected problem - such as a strike, hurricane, bombing, etc.

Some facilities in Nigeria have been shut-in so long (a year or more) it's believed it would take some time to restart them now.
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Re: Another Nigerian Pipeline Bombing/Operation Cyclone

Unread postby jeffvail » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 09:53:39

I've posted an article at The Oil Drum discussing the significance of the recent attack against Shell's Bonga facility offshore Nigeria:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4196

Nigeria hopes to bring 1.25 million barrels per day of new offshore production on line in the next 6 years. It was previously assumed that this was beyond the reach of MEND. No longer...
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Re: Current oil shut-ins are beginning to add up

Unread postby dukey » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:26:35

sometimes just routine maintenance
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Re: Another Nigerian Pipeline Bombing/Operation Cyclone

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 14:00:01

Jeff - excellent work. Disheartening that the two reactions to the problem offered in the comments seem to be either consulting the Jane's literature or resignation.

Found your article Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves? last night - just what I've been looking for.
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Re: Another Nigerian Pipeline Bombing/Operation Cyclone

Unread postby jeffvail » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:26:30

Thank you, Dude...

I'll have an update about Mexico out later this Summer. It increasingly seems like this kind of disruption is an emergent phenomenon on a global scale, not an isolated even in a given region. Good article on the topic by John Robb today.
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Re: Another Nigerian Pipeline Bombing/Operation Cyclone

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 18:03:27

jeffvail wrote:Thank you, Dude...

I'll have an update about Mexico out later this Summer. It increasingly seems like this kind of disruption is an emergent phenomenon on a global scale, not an isolated even in a given region. Good article on the topic by John Robb today.


Excellent work!

Even as a pessimist on the Nigerian oil situation, it was my impression from reading various oil industry reports that the Bonga platform was beyond the reach of MEND. Apparently not, although it was reported today that some unknown amount of production was restarted.

Labor and political problems look like they will continue:

Nigeria Union Plans To Shut Down Chevron Production-Official

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
June 24, 2008 4:35 p.m.

IBADAN, Nigeria (Dow Jones)--Chevron Corp. (CVX) workers in Nigeria are taking the two-day-old strike at the oil company in phases and would shut down production if Chevron is not forthcoming on their demands, a union official said Tuesday.

"We have already closed down Chevron offices, there is no power, no communications and no administrative work going on," Jonathan Omare, secretary of the Chevron unit of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, or Pengassan, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Pengassan staff at Chevron launched a strike on Monday after weeks of talks broke down over safety standards, staffing and the removal of Fred Nelson, the company's head in Nigeria.

Omare added "we are doing the strike in phases; the strike is already having some impact. If we don't get the expected response from Chevron management, we will close down oil production."

He did not give a timeline for the shutdown of production but said that will be done if union demands were not met by Chevron.



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Re: Current oil shut-ins are beginning to add up

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 20:42:59

--> LINK <--
Shell Resumes Oil Production at Nigeria's Bonga Field
By Alexander Kwiatkowski

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's biggest oil producer, resumed output from its Bonga oil field off the coast of Nigeria after a militant attack halted operations last week.

Production at the field started today, company spokesman Rainer Winzenried said in a phone interview from The Hague. Shell shut down Bonga output June 19 after militants attacked the production vessel at the deepwater field 120 kilometers (75 miles) off the coast of Nigeria.

Damage to the platform was ``very limited,'' Winzenried said, though force majeure remains in place for the time being.

Following the attack, Shell declared so-called force majeure on Bonga exports, a legal clause that allows producers to miss contracted deliveries because of circumstances beyond their control.

Bonga crude shipments were scheduled to average 190,000 barrels a day in June and about 184,000 barrels a day in July, according to loading schedules.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Current oil shut-ins are beginning to add up

Unread postby SchroedingersCat » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 23:00:00

OilFinder2 wrote:--> LINK <--
Shell Resumes Oil Production at Nigeria's Bonga Field
By Alexander Kwiatkowski

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's biggest oil producer, resumed output from its Bonga oil field off the coast of Nigeria after a militant attack halted operations last week.

Production at the field started today, company spokesman Rainer Winzenried said in a phone interview from The Hague. Shell shut down Bonga output June 19 after militants attacked the production vessel at the deepwater field 120 kilometers (75 miles) off the coast of Nigeria.

Damage to the platform was ``very limited,'' Winzenried said, though force majeure remains in place for the time being.

Following the attack, Shell declared so-called force majeure on Bonga exports, a legal clause that allows producers to miss contracted deliveries because of circumstances beyond their control.

Bonga crude shipments were scheduled to average 190,000 barrels a day in June and about 184,000 barrels a day in July, according to loading schedules.

[...]


Hmm, doesn't mention what current production levels are. Says what they were scheduled for, not what they will be.
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Re: Current oil shut-ins are beginning to add up

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 23:04:04

SchroedingersCat wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:--> LINK <--
[Hmm, doesn't mention what current production levels are. Says what they were scheduled for, not what they will be.


Loading schedules are being expected to be 'revised':

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
June 24, 2008 10:12 a.m.

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Provisional crude oil export plans for Nigerian exports in August indicate the country is planning to ship seven cargoes of Escravos crude oil, traders of West African crude said Tuesday, in spite of an attack on the facility which shut-in 120,000 barrels a day in late Thursday.

The plans show the total volume of Escravos set to be shipped in August as steady on last month, although one trader based in London said: "We expect to see Escravos revised (later in the month.)"
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Re: Another Nigerian Pipeline Bombing/Operation Cyclone

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 06:32:38

Shell Restarts Output At Nigeria's Bonga, Keeps Force Majeure

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
June 25, 2008 5:14 a.m.

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) restarted production late Tuesday at its Nigerian offshore oil field Bonga but is maintaining force majeure, a company spokesman said Wednesday.

Shell declared force majeure Friday on exports from the 225,000 barrels-a-day Bonga in Nigeria, after an attack by Nigeria's leading rebel group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta.

A force majeure provides Shell legal protection for not meeting its contractual obligations.

Company Web site: http://www.shell.com
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One Reason Gas Is Emptying Your Wallet: Nigeria

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 01:45:31

One Reason Gas Is Emptying Your Wallet: Nigeria

The attack also showed that Nigeria’s vast reserves of oil are being held hostage by a conflict that at best is little understood in the West. It is a three-way struggle, involving a government charged with negligence and corruption, oil companies blamed for terrible environmental damage that afflicts the region and an impoverished people.

Unlike the grand geopolitical struggles of Israel versus Iran or the burning oil towers of northern Iraq — some of the factors we usually imagine influencing world oil prices — Nigeria’s is a local tussle. But the events in Nigeria — Africa’s most-populous nation, and the world’s eighth-largest oil exporter, supplying nearly a tenth of America’s oil imports, according to the Department of Energy — have rippled across global energy markets nonetheless, and contributed to tighter supplies and higher prices at American gas pumps. (This is in addition to a long list of other variables, including sharply declining production in Mexico and slowing production in Russia, the North Sea and Venezuela, all in the face of steadily rising demand by fast-growing behemoths like China and India.)

As the damage has mounted and some companies have closed down operations, Nigeria’s oil production has slipped to 1.8 million barrels per day, which is far below its production capacity of about 2.8 million barrels. .

One million barrels of missing oil each day is costly for Nigeria and for the rest of the world when the market is so tight.


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Re: One Reason Gas Is Emptying Your Wallet: Nigeria

Unread postby socrates1fan » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 12:49:13

Good.
Long term I don't want gas prices to go down or we will just go back to suburbia SUV culture.
Short term this would be wonderful but over all we need this.
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Re: One Reason Gas Is Emptying Your Wallet: Nigeria

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 13:18:23

1 mbpd = $140 million a day ... and the country is poor by any standards. How come?
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Re: One Reason Gas Is Emptying Your Wallet: Nigeria

Unread postby Sys1 » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 13:49:27

''Blah blah blah... the market is so tight.''

The five last words mean everything.
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