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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 29 May 2020, 16:38:26

sparky - Also good to remember that most of the big NG developing companies also get a big chunk of their working capital from their oil revenue. No $'s no play.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Fri 29 May 2020, 18:02:16

sparky wrote:.
With the December sanctions attached to a Defense appropriation , the US stopped the 90% completed project stone dead
the Swiss company laying the pipes pulled out of the Nord stream 2 project
the Russian have send a ship the Akademik Cherskiy from Vladivostok to the Baltic to finish the pipe
it has just arrived
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ts-endgame

Oh surprise ! the US is considered more sanctions , but it would have to be against Gazprom directly and it's customers
that would be a biggie
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/ene ... 2-pipeline

This is in a background of decreasing Gas production in the US
the fracking produce quite a lot of associated gas , if the drilling slow down the production of gas drop too
there is pure gas fields notably in the Gulf but the internal market will be served first which leave the LNG operators in a bit of a pickle , especially as there has been an excess of liquefaction plant build

Time will tell


There is no hurry since Covid-19 has collapsed both oil and gas consumption in Europe. As for posturing by US masters of the universe wannabes. Bring it, you delusional clowns. Germany has already granted a 20 year exemption to Gazprom to the BS Bruxelles rules that pretend the supply pipe from Russia needs to allocate 50% to other suppliers. These rules are not applied to the identical situation of the gas pipeline from Azerbaijan so they are clearly anti-Russian posturing. Germany is pissing on them after its sets them on fire. Germans understand that

1) Beggars can't be choosers.

2) Russia has been supplying reasonably priced (compared to Norway) natural gas to Europe since the 1980s. All the agit-prop about blackmail in 2006 and 2009 was Banderastani blackmail involving the shutting down of pipelines by Kiev. Gazprom had an independent Swiss monitoring firm to watch the gas flow through the Banderastani border. If you did not know this, then that shows you the value of the fake stream media. Pushing propaganda narratives 24/7.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 16 Jun 2020, 08:48:48

I knew this company was going to go bankrupt 10 years ago but I had no idea that it would take this long. Many had long considered CHK too big to fail.

Chesapeake Misses Interest Payment, Starts Bankruptcy Countdown
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Jun 2020, 12:21:14

I knew this company was going to go bankrupt 10 years ago


Once again, as Rockman has pointed out a couple of times "bankrupt" is really a declaration of Chapter 11. In the vast majority of cases the company does not cease to exist but rather outstanding debt is renegotiated which often requires the company to surrender some equity and agree to have a bank representative on their board. Most cases of Chapter 11 in the past few years in the oil and gas patch have resulted in a stronger company emerging.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Wed 17 Jun 2020, 14:51:51

The Kiev regime is screeching that Gazprom is dismantling the pipeline that used to transit Russian gas through Ukraine.

1) It offers no proof.

2) It makes it sound like it has a case. I guess everyone with something for sale is obliged to sell to me even if I physically attack them first. Spread libel and slander and act like their rank A enemy. This would be called market access communism and I would be a self-entitled welfare bum.

3) Cry me a river. You made your bed, now sleep in (sh)it.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 17 Jun 2020, 14:54:41

Yes, what does this bankruptcy mean is an interesting question. Does it substantially change the game where shale companies can't rely on private equity to supply them with cash so they can continue to produce? If you look at 2016 as a guide, there were hundreds of bankruptcies and once prices increased, shale producers secured plenty of funding to continue their drilling programs. I would think in our current state of ZIRP that nothing changes and the folks that continue to grab money out of the air to invest in shale companies will continue to do so. I also think this imaginary world cannot last but it took 10 years for CHK to finally stop paying creditors even though it was obvious their production was more expensive than what they received in cash for it. Maybe on this much larger scale, it will take 50 years. Who knows.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 18 Jun 2020, 12:03:36

GG - Investors don't give a shit what other investors were screwed by a borrower. They only care about the potential profit and risk. A few years ago a big south Texas shale player picked the wrong time to expand ops into Mississippi. Then oil prices fell and they filed Chapter 11. When the dust settled the corporation rid itself of $BILLIONS of debt. And the investor world? It loaned the company $600 to expand into a new hot shale play in west Texas.

The investor world IS NOT one big band of brothers that cover each other ass.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Thu 18 Jun 2020, 18:41:26

The Stockholm Arbitration Kangaroo "Court" thought it was real smart when it broke the long term gas contracts signed by Gazprom with clown outfits like PGNIG in Poland since the spot price somewhere on the planet was lower over some stretches of time. Apparently spot pricing trumps any lawful contract retroactively. In the case of Poland it was signed in 1996.

Well, now Gazprom is going to apply the "logic" of this kangaroo outfit and argue that that it was under paid when the spot pricing was higher than the contract price. If the kangaroo outfit decides to be selective with its "reasoning", then Gazprom will give all of its decisions the middle finger.

And as I said, beggars can't be choosers. So any demands will be treated for what they are worth.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 21 Jun 2020, 13:14:20

Turkey just signed a contract for 5 mtpa of LNG from the US (about 1 train's output in a year). Turkish utility reportedly paying $6.50 mmbtu to Gazprom. The damaged pipeline transporting Iranian gas into the country is not being repaired.
Ukraine also just contracted to buy US LNG.

The Yamal/Poland pipeline is currently not flowing product.
Piped Siberian gas to the Chinese border runs about $6/mmbtu while JKM (Asia) spot LNG is way under 3 bucks.
Singapore is not renewing contracts for piped Malaysian and Indonesian gas as $3/$4 mmbtu LNG is cheaper and more flexible.
Qatar is having trouble getting contracts signed with both India and Pakistan for its LNG at the $7+ price point.
Despite huge fields nearby, Cypress is opting to construct LNG terminals to import US LNG rather than build short pipelines.

As bizarre as it may sound, the vast supply of ultra cheap US 'shale' gas, combined with new, fast, inexpensive modular build out of LNG terminals, $200 million carriers that burn Boil Off Gas for fuel (essentially cost free), and the cheap hardware to regassify via FSRUs (Floating Storage and Regasification Units) are all contributing to a rapid embrace of American LNG all across the globe.

Throw in the ultra efficient CCGPs (Combined Cycle Gas Plants), and it becomes more understandabke why countries from Brazil to Thailand, from Bangledesh to El Salvador to Vietnam (massive projects underway here) are forging ahead in this emerging paradigm of Gas to Power.

Age of Gas is upon us with profound consequences yet to recognized.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Tue 23 Jun 2020, 06:51:10

.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/eu-rea ... s%20market.

" The EU imported the highest ever volume of LNG in 2019 at 108 billion cubic meters (bcm), marking 27% of total gas imports and 22% of the EU's gas consumption, according to the European Commission's (EC) report on the gas market.

The European Commission's latest reports on gas and electricity markets covering a wide range of data on supply and usage of electricity and gas in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2019 were published on Tuesday.

The gas market report showed that Qatar supplied 30 bcm of LNG to the EU in 2019, followed by Russia with 21 bcm and the U.S. with 17 bcm.

"In 2019, increasing competition could be observed between the U.S. and Russia in LNG supply to the EU," the report read.

EU LNG imports showed a significant increase, up by 42% year-on-year in in the last quarter of 2019. "Prices in different regions (e.g.: between Europe and Asia) remained aligned amid well-supplied global LNG markets, enabling plentiful LNG influx to Europe," the report explained.

The increase in European LNG imports was also helped by decreased demand for LNG in many Asian markets amid increasing global LNG supply, it added.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the EU LNG import reached 30.4 bcm, marking a year-on-year increase of 42% compared to the same period in 2018. In the last quarter of 2019, the U.S. became the leading LNG supply source for the EU, ensuring 25% of the total imports, ahead of Qatar at 23%, Russia with 19% and Nigeria at 11%.

However, with the exception of November and December 2019, and despite increasing EU LNG imports from the U.S., Russia exported more LNG to the EU than the U.S. in each month in 2019.

The report argued that this implies that Russia made efforts to maintain its influence on the European gas market, complementing the pipeline business with a growing LNG supply.

During the same period of 2019, the U.K. became the biggest LNG importer with 7 bcm, ahead of France with 6 bcm and Spain with 5.4 bcm."
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Tue 23 Jun 2020, 07:04:30

.
there is a deep price crisis in ten Natural gas market
it's sooooo cheap ,soooo plentiful
the price of North West Asia , North West Europe and US lower state has converged at less than two dollars per million BTU
...LNG for nothing and ships for free

From the financial times
https://www.ft.com/content/a4e87328-4a8 ... 759163885b
" Gas prices in Europe are now cheaper than in the US, discouraging exports from North America, according to S&P Global Platts. In east Asia, the biggest import market, the price of gas was just 40 cents more than in the US, well below the cost of liquefying and shipping gas from the western hemisphere.

After running at full speed until April, the six operational US export terminals are now using only 65 per cent of their capacity, with gas prices indicating future sales would be out of the money until at least September, the consultancy IHS Markit said. "
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Tue 23 Jun 2020, 16:07:11

Sparky
The current cost to build an LNG plant in the US is about $500,000/metric tonne.
While this statement means little to most, it is about half - or less - than conventional plants built within the past 10 years. (Contrast Yamal, the 3 Curtis Island plants, as an example. Better yet, check out Prelude's costs).

In addition, the emerging 'cookie cutter' approach with hardware modules makes the repetitive, onsite assembly process much more manageable, along with the enabling of incremental product additions to the marketplace.
Throw in - for a final kicker - the fact that most of the power/energy needed for the liquefaction process stems from cheap natgas itself, and one can see a self-reinforcing cycle of highly advantaged product being brought to global customers.

Appalachian Basin operators are buying hedges at $2.50/mmbtu.
Export terminals/LNG plants are being prepared on the west coast of Mexico at Ensenada and Puerto Libertad ... drawing upon virtually free supply from the Permian.
(Extremely attractive Mancos production waiting to be tapped).

People will be surprised when the LNG import terminals at Crib Point and Newcastle join in with Port Kembla and import product from the US.
(Port Kembla's operator has already signed a supply agreement with Cheniere).

Looking farther out, with the ability to bulk ship LNG by rail (already long been done using ISO containers), smaller suppliers and markets become more viable.
The adoption of LNG and CNG for transportation uses (railway in eastern Florida already doing this), may occur far more rapidly than the current assumptions might indicate.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Wed 24 Jun 2020, 21:33:29

There are a lot of suckers in Europe who are totally delusional about how resource pricing works. Short term gluts give the illusion of infinite resource supply. In the real world LNG is being dumped on European markets for a loss. The suckers think that they will be getting the low price from here on out. They are not merely suckers, they are retards. Any adult with a brain should be aware of this pricing pattern. But delusion trumps intelligence.

It's funny listening to these suckers talk about energy security as they smoke crack and believe in the tooth fairy arriving with free gifts. Once Europe is on LNG they will be sorry and will wail about the good old times. And the LNG will not be coming from failing US non-conventional plays (the US simply does not have the export capacity for natural gas to feed Europe even with the pre-Covid non-conventional production). So go ahead, retards, piss on those "ebil Rossian" contracts as you eat Qatari and Russian high *market* priced LNG.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby sparky » Wed 24 Jun 2020, 21:57:30

.
It would seems ( if one can trust public announcements ) that Qatar has decided to do like the Saudi and break the market
to then be able to pick the pieces

From the specialized press Oxford energy
note....TTF is an European pricing hub located in the Nederland , there are a dozen trading hub TTF is the leader
also a very nice price graph in the front page of this one
https://bluegoldresearch.com/regional-lng-prices

" Gas prices in Europe have crashed through the $2 range discussed in two previous OIES comments.
The June TTF monthly price closed below $2 and, for the next few months, the forward curve suggests this will continue.
The amount of gas in storage in Europe has played a crucial role in pricing movements, absorbing a lot of the excess LNG supply in 2019.
With COVID-19 impacting globally on gas demand, and LNG export capacity still increasing, it looks increasingly likely that storage could be pretty much full, possibly in early August.
The moment of truth will then have arrived in the global gas market.
If there is still too much LNG trying to find a home, then there will need to be more supply shut in, from both LNG and pipeline gas, if prices are not to turn negative.
Looking forward, the forward curve suggests a more than doubling of TTF prices in the summer of 2021 over 2020. The historic relationship, between storage utilisation and TTF prices, suggests that utilisation would need to be much lower next year than this.
LNG flows into Europe would then need to be significantly curtailed, which can only occur if there is a big rebound in Asia LNG demand in the order of 20% year on year.
In the absence of this, prices in Europe, and in Asia, may stay at stubbornly low levels through 2021, prompting more LNG shut-ins next year "
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