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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 18:00:22

As Pennsylvania just released October's production numbers - 543 Bcf (17 and a half Bcfd) - you folks who follow this hydrocarbon world may want to be aware of a few items.

The Appalachian Basin (PA, OH, WV) is now producing at a rate of 10 Trillion cubic feet per year ... and ever increasing.
To put 10 Tcf in perspective, glance at the description of several 'monster' finds these past few years and compare.

The resource base in the AB will be 100 years, give or take.
Recent, high production wells are producing above 5 Bcf first year with a few double that.
As the speed, precision, and lateral length continue to improve, economics will greatly favor this region.

Now, main point of this post is to steer any interested readers towards the emerging world of LNG.

Rapid innovations involving modularization and floaters are upending natgas handling, transportation and - ultimately - useage

LNG projects such as Driftwood, Delfin, and Main Pass Energy Hub have the potential to revolutionize the LNG world as the costs plummet while build times shrink to construct these plants.

The fact that a near Elba Island capacity plant - at 2.1 mtpa - is to be built way up in the woods in northeast Pennsylvania for under $900 million and 18 months timeframe - should send shockwaves throughout the hydrocarbon world. (New Fortress Energy is the operator).

Just as natgas has displaced coal for electricity generation, the day is not far off when oil will be supplanted by natgas for transportation. Emerging MOF technology assures this.

You folks who closely watch 'oil happennings' are apt to be caught off guard by this new paradigm.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 20:34:51

thanks for that update. If the appropriate infrastructure can all get built one should expect a global market for LNG. Years ago the company I was at did a study that worked out if LNG became traded freely across the globe there would be a single value attached versus the large range we see now. Currently you have prices as low as less than $2/Mcf in parts of North America to as high as $14/Mcf seasonally in parts of Latin America. The value our study came up with was $6/Mcf. On a BOE basis that would be $36/Boe a price that would be OK for consumers and producers.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 20:58:18

Excellent numbers that show, among other things, the price advantage of heat energy when it is contained in gaseous, rather than liquid, form.
Overcoming the physical hurdles will be the challenge.

I googled the 'mid scale'/'small scale' LNG world today and still find it amazing how innovation constantly arises in human affairs.
The outfits that are cutting edge in the liquefaction realm are being matched by the transportation/storage boys as ever smaller markets are targeted.

To compare the cost and capacity of, say, Yamal ... 27 billion bucks for about 17 mtpa ... or the 3 Curtis Island projects costing about 60 billion and producing about 25 mtpa with the 2 ship MPEH which may produce 24 mtpa for under $10 billion.
That is a HUGE spread.

These types of numbers are prompting speculation that the 4 FSRU units proposed for south east Australia may be supplied by US LNG.

Now, THAT would raise a few eyebrows.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 19 Dec 2018, 14:54:03

Ohio just released their 3rd quarter Utica production numbers.

As they do not, AFAIK, total the output, I only scan down the per well production spreadsheet to see what's up.

Most probably another record as about 170 wells produced over 1 Bcf, 20 over 2 Bcf, and one - from Eclipse - an astonishing 3.6 Bcf in 90 days. (Sounds like it is one of their 20 thousand foot laterals).

For context, a year or so back only 30/40 wells broke the 1 Bcf threshold.
Expansion into Harrison and Jefferson counties continues.

For you folks who have limited knowledge of the hydrocarbon industry - especially those who think scarcity is immanent - this Ohio report, along with last week's Pennsylvania release - should provide hard evidence that the US possesses an almost unfathomable amount of natgas.

Appalachia Rising!!
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Wed 19 Dec 2018, 16:04:58

coffeeguyzz wrote: ........

For you folks who have limited knowledge of the hydrocarbon industry - especially those who think scarcity is immanent - this Ohio report, along with last week's Pennsylvania release - should provide hard evidence that the US possesses an almost unfathomable amount of natgas.

Appalachia Rising!!


I'm sure most here understand that there are enough available hydrocarbon resources to ensure the demise of many many species. Thanks!
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 10:38:12

This week's rig count for Appalachia has it dead even yoy. Over the last year Ohio has -8 rigs, WV has +5, and Penn has +3. The EIA has posted natural gas production declines for 2 straight months in Ohio. Overall Appalachia has still been adding production but I would expect the next 6 months or so to add very little compared to the past few years.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 12:30:57

An interesting article regarding negative natural gas prices in the US as a consequence of large supply and lack of egress. It is amazing that when everyone is worried about shifting to alternatives producers are giving away a very clean energy source at a loss.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/why-are-u-s-natural-gas-prices-in-texas-below-zero/

WHY IS THERE SO MUCH NATURAL GAS SUPPLY?
The Permian is the nation’s largest shale oil field, where production now exceeds more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd). But oil output also produces what is known as associated gas, seen by crude drillers as a waste product to be burned off or “flared” because there are not enough pipelines to remove it.

Construction of new oil and gas pipelines in the Permian has not kept up with output, which has more than doubled over the past three years as the United States has risen to become the world’s largest oil producer.

But while oil can be stored in tanks and transported by truck or train, gas can only be transported by pipe, burned, or if special equipment is available, re-injected into the ground.

Recently, compressor problems on a pipeline in New Mexico exacerbated the problem, as it closed off a key artery for the gas.

HOW MUCH GAS IS BEING FLARED?
It depends on who you ask. Permian drillers flared a record 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in the third quarter of 2018 and are expected to flare at least 0.6 bcfd by mid-2019, according to Oslo-based energy data provider Rystad Energy.

One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to fuel about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.

Permian flaring came to 0.15 bcfd and 0.11 bcfd in 2017 and 2016, respectively, according to Texas Railroad Commission data interpreted by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), an environmental group.
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