[billp]

We believe in peaceful settlement.



and getting settlement avenues formalized.




http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/nsal ... .htm#reply

Cheers

[seldom_seen]

Wider war in the Middle East Imminent??

Of course it is silly.

The ME is in overshoot, and with peak oil the fuse is lit.

Humans don't just lie down and die when times get scarce. They get all fired up and then go try to kill the people from the other tribe (nation, state, city, religion whatever) and take their stuff.

From now until the ME is once again a sparsely populated desert of nomads, there's going to be a whole heaping helping of war and rumors of war.

Don't worry about it though. War is a way of life in the ME. That's what they do over there. The war will come home soon enough and the last thing on your mind will be the ME.

[Eli]

Well if my goal was the destruction of Israel and if Israel had taken land from me in a war and was not giving it back there would be reason to attack.

A good way to do it would be in phases. Attack in the Golan and attack in Gaza and try and unite northern Israel with Syria and Lebanon.

Take a big chunk and push Israel as hard as you can but without giving them a good excuse to go nuclear. Threaten but then offer a peace deal.

Meld a war in the Golan with a popular uprising in the West Bank and Gaza, and Israel might just let go to avoid going nuclear.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Well if my goal was the destruction of Israel and if Israel had taken land from me in a war and was not giving it back there would be reason to attack.

A good way to do it would be in phases. Attack in the Golan and attack in Gaza and try and unite northern Israel with Syria and Lebanon.

Take a big chunk and push Israel as hard as you can but without giving them a good excuse to go nuclear. Threaten but then offer a peace deal.

Meld a war in the Golan with a popular uprising in the West Bank and Gaza, and Israel might just let go to avoid going nuclear.

Israel will not give away Golan, as this is critical region for control of Israeli water supply.
So it will have to go nuclear, if Syria attempts to take it by force.

[manu]

...very interesting.

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatc ... /0622.html

Y'know, if this has any truth in it, we could be in a whale of a lot of trouble over there. The new russian stuff is pretty damn good, and, contrary to a lot of military people, I tend to think a blue-water navy cooped up in gulf is toast.

I agree with you on that!

[Mo_Oil_Dave]

Hello there...

The Mig-31? This aircraft appears to be highly specialized as a defensive unit rather than for assault. I'm no weapons expert afterall. Honestly I think it would be a good choice for someone expecting an attack from a technically superior foe.


http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372240


"The MiG-31 is a highly specialized jet -- not a fighter per se, but an interceptor specifically designed to kill long-range U.S. cruise missiles. The MiG-31 is a bulky two-seater that can carry up to eight air-to-air guided missiles with a range of up to 120 kilometers The MiG-31 can fly supersonic near the earth’s surface as well as high up. It is a purely defensive fighter, designed to be used over friendly territory to defend against massive air assaults. The MiG-31 has sophisticated and powerful radar that can track 24 different targets simultaneously and exchange information with other MiG-31s and ground control centers."


The bulk of this particular article suggests that the defence contractor who wishes to sell these units is just blowing a lot of smoke around.


David

[Twilight]

Any such war would turn defensive pretty quick. Something that could shoot down aircraft from very far away would be useful. The problem would be getting it into the air.

[evilgenius]

The trick to taking on Israel, if you are an Arab, is not going at them directly. You have to challenge the Saudi overstructure that agrees with the US. As they appear weak strike. Now that they are peaking force them to reveal it by bringing on world wide cries for more oil that they cannot fulfill. As the Saudis are discredited so is the US. The only life raft available to the US is to abandon Israel.

Right now the forces mentioned are busy working to bring down confidence in the Saudi way. Being military rather than just political helps if some rare opportunity, an unexpected weakness, should present itself. God help the US military if they believe that size alone and not size coupled with efficiency and wisdom is the order of the day.

[gg3]

So Nyquist thinks Al Q is a Russian project. Interesting.

I can see how Russia might make inroads in Saudi, but I don't see Russia making any friends among Afghani tribals, given the history of hte Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 70s.

There is something so unlikely about Russia making friends in Afghanistan, that it's almost outrageous enough to be good cover for a covert op.

---

The incentives for war on this side of the pond are:

Bush wants to rescue his "wartime president" legacy by "doubling down" on his bets after losing two wars thus far (Afghan and Iraq). This is frankly the strategy of someone with an addictive personality problem, for example an alcoholic who got "dry" but not "sober." Fits to a proverbial T.

Bush wants to deliver something major to his religious extremist base. Nothing could be more major than the War of Armageddon, presumably to be followed by the Second Coming.

(And who might be the Second Coming..? Well, let's put our tinfoil hats on for just a moment and look into the relationship between the Bush Family and Reverend Sun Myung Moon. The latter believes himself to be the Second Coming. Interesting, eh? Go ahead and web search "Bush" and "Sun Myung Moon" and see what you get. Not so crazy to speculate after all...)

And the disincentives are:

Our ground forces are already stretched thin in Iraq. Senior Generals would probably revolt, by refusing to go, or by resigning their commissions and retiring (on the basis that they "no longer have faith in the CinC," which is a valid reason to resign a commission). The American people would probably scream bloody murder, and then Congress would take action.

For Bush to make this stick, there would have to be some kind of direct attack by a hostile nation or major terr group, either against the US or against Israel; and it would have to be traceable in some way to Iran or a group that could be pinned on Iran.

---

What to do about this:

Call your Representative and Senators, and yell like hell. Also demand impeachment. The next two years are too much of an opportunity for the present band of malicious idiots to cause further trouble. They've broken the law too many times to list, they are guilty of malfeasance on an enormous scale, they have harmed our national defense, and they are a risk for starting a wider war. For all those reasons and more, they need to GO, NOW.

Stockpile all the usual stuff because if anyone over there tosses an A-bomb, there will be major panic. Also if someone unleashes bugs, you're going to want to stay indoors in self-quarantine mode until it's over.

Keep some cash on hand but don't empty out your account (if you keep your money in a small local credit union, it is more likely to survive a nasty economic situation than if you keep it in a big bank. BTW, Citi- anything, is owned 1/3 or more by Saudi, so please take your money out of there and put it in an American bank...).

Know where to go for expedient fallout shelter. Shit I really thought we'd gotten over this one after the Berlin wall came down; guess not...

[mekrob]

I can see how Russia might make inroads in Saudi, but I don't see Russia making any friends among Afghani tribals, given the history of hte Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 70s.

Taliban is Afghani. Al-Qa'ida is generally Paki, Arab, and Persian. Al-Qa'ida in Afghanistan is pretty much wiped out and overshadowed by the Taliban while it is much stronger in Iraq and probably Syria, the Gulf and Iran (the regions that surround US forces).

The Mig-31? This aircraft appears to be highly specialized as a defensive unit rather than for assault. I'm no weapons expert afterall. Honestly I think it would be a good choice for someone expecting an attack from a technically superior foe.

That would be the main goal for Syria even if they do act as the aggressor. What they would want to do is what allowed Egypt to gain the upper hand (for a short time) in '67 or '73 or some war. That is, attack Israel. Make them come to you hard. Then you pull back your army to your defenses where you can cause serious damage to the IDF.

If Syria really is getting advanced anti-aircraft missiles and aircraft, then they should fare pretty well (compared to Lebanon last year) against Israel. One major problem I had with Hezbollah's tactics is that they spent millions upon millions of dollars on offensive weapons when they knew they couldn't win and not a penny on anti-aircraft missiles which left their forces completely vulnerable.

Israel will not give away Golan, as this is critical region for control of Israeli water supply.
So it will have to go nuclear, if Syria attempts to take it by force.

Golan allows them to have nearly complete control over Lake Tiberias. Losing it would still leave them with about half of the shoreline. Syria is not dumb enough to risk getting nuked in exchange for complete control of the Lake (and Israel's future) so they would likely make a consession. One of which would be not getting nuked in exchange for better access to the lake.

[NoLogos]

The incentives for war on this side of the pond are:

Forgot one:

There's alot of money to be made supplyin' Uncle Sam with the tools of the trade. (from a song by 'Country Joe and the Fish') I highly recommend this ancient but very valuable and short book, available on-line, written by a two-time congressional Medal of Honor recipient Major General Smedley D. Butler, USMC:
http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/artic ... racket.htm

What to do about this:

Call your Representative and Senators, and yell like hell. Also demand impeachment. The next two years are too much of an opportunity for the present band of malicious idiots to cause further trouble. They've broken the law too many times to list, they are guilty of malfeasance on an enormous scale, they have harmed our national defense, and they are a risk for starting a wider war. For all those reasons and more, they need to GO, NOW.

Stockpile all the usual stuff because if anyone over there tosses an A-bomb, there will be major panic. Also if someone unleashes bugs, you're going to want to stay indoors in self-quarantine mode until it's over.

Keep some cash on hand but don't empty out your account (if you keep your money in a small local credit union, it is more likely to survive a nasty economic situation than if you keep it in a big bank. BTW, Citi- anything, is owned 1/3 or more by Saudi, so please take your money out of there and put it in an American bank...).

Know where to go for expedient fallout shelter. Shit I really thought we'd gotten over this one after the Berlin wall came down; guess not...

Good advice, and it bears repeating. Thanks!

[mekrob]

We were talking about the Golan Heights and any Israeli willingness to give them up in exchange for peace and access to water.

BBC

arlier this month, an Israeli newspaper reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had secretly sent messages to President Bashar Assad - the son of Hafez - offering a full withdrawal from the Golan in exchange for full peace.

Two Israeli cabinet ministers also confirmed that the Israeli government has approached Syria about the possibility of renewing peace talks.

But if Israel were to return the occupied Golan Heights it would want firm security guarantees and access to water.

Israel hasn't even been defeated yet and they wanna give in. Scared?

[Plantagenet]

Israel hasn't even been defeated yet and they wanna give in. Scared?

Perhaps the Israelis prefer to make peace rather then fight endless wars with their neighbors.

[Schadenfreude]

Pause in Iraq? Try Permanent Bases in the Region

In Kuwait, for instance, the Army is completing the finishing touches on a permanent ground forces command for Iraq and the region, one that it describes as being capable of being a platform for "full spectrum operations" in 27 countries around southwest Asia and the Middle East.

Permanently deployed with the new regional headquarters in Kuwait will be a theater-level logistical command, a communications command, a military intelligence brigade, a "civil affairs" group and a medical command. "These commands now have a permanent responsibility to this theater," Lt. Gen. James J. Lovelace told the Mideast edition of Stars and Stripes. "They'll have a permanent presence here."

The Air Force and Navy, meanwhile, have set up additional permanent bases in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman. By permanent I mean large and continuing American headquarters and presences, most of which are maintained through a combination of coalition activities, long-standing bilateral agreements and official secrecy. Tens of billions have been plowed into the American infrastructure. Admiral William J. Fallon, the overall commander of the region, was just in Oman this week after a trip to Iraq to secure continuing American military bases in that country.

When a war with Iran loomed and World War III seemed to be gaining traction in the Bush administration, this entire base structure was seen as the "build-up" for the next war. The build-up of course began decades ago, but since 9/11, the focus has been almost exclusively "supporting" U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran is there, but to interpret the planting of the American flags and the moving of chess pieces as being focused on Tehran is to miss what is really going on...

Can anyone guess what's "really going on"?

[MD]

Yeah. We're policing the oil producing regions. Hasn't that been clear enough these past few years? Remember the "non-negotiable" comment? This is how it's being backed up.

[slick50]

Carter saw the importance of the Persian Gulf oil.

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force

[Schadenfreude]

This has been what the Bush Administration has been all about ever since entering office.

They were well aware of the dire ramifications of Peak Oil long before the election of 2000.

Does anyone realistically believe the Barack Obama, if elected, will actually pull troops out of Iraq?

Of course he won't! Those bases will be permanently occupied. This is a major, major undertaking that goes far beyond the public bickering and disagreements between officials and candidates.

I can only marvel that hopelessly naive people still believe that the events of 911 were simply a lucky boon to the gargantuan US project still under construction in the Middle East - all because of oil and the unparalleled strategic power it brings to whomever can control its market and distribution.

If the US is able to strategically coordinate production levels in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other ME countries, then it will essentially control the entire oil market. Any $trillions expended in the accomplishment of this goal will have been worth it.

[BigTex]

Anybody seen the plans for the U.S. embassy in Baghdad? That's going to be quite a place. Biggest in the world.

[kpeavey]

individuals have their preps, the govt and military of the world has their preps.