[Twilight]

Sure, let's blame the Mexcian government, rather than say the gloomy words that peak oil has arrived south of the border big time.

The EIA and a lot of such agencies work to a snapshot.

In this case, you could call it something like 'World Energy 2030 Politically Acceptable Scenario.xls', because that is what it contains. The challenge of the forecaster is to fit the data to support that snapshot.

The opposite approach is to base a model on existing trends and fundamentals and run it to 2030, but this produces a picture not fit for publication.

So they choose to write a conclusion and work backwards. Right now we can expose their forecasts using their own monthly data, but I would not take this for granted. Very few countries publish quality statistics, and I expect in a few years the EIA will still be publishing forecasts, but not the monthly data to check anything.

[smiley]

'World Energy 2030 Politically Acceptable Scenario.xls',

Well put. The EIA cannot publish anything which is fundamentally different from Mexico's own progrnosis. That would spell a lot of political tumoil.

Mexico is choosing to bury its head in the sand. They stick to their 2030 prediction and just steepen the road to it as their production plunges.

In a way this is also understandable. It is a self-fullfilling prophecy. Would you rather invest in a country with growth potential or in a decline? If Mexico admits to decline they will find it harder to find the money to invest in their production, hence the decline will become worse.

[shortonoil]

pstarr said:

Not so. $500/b Petroleum is a good investment.

At $500/b we will be burning more whale oil to light the night, than Ready KiloWatts. The entire monetary financial system of the world will have long since collapsed into a hovel of Weimar like states.

As a matter of fact, a good question to ask, is at what point does the high cost of oil bring down the world’s economies; how many countries like Mexico is it going to take to shake this house of cards apart. With $300 trillion dollars in derivatives floating around out there, I wouldn’t think it would take very many.

[sameu]

I'm sure that in the EIA forecast department they have a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at a spinning wheel.

It's not that advanced, it's just a bunch of monkeys throwing darts.

omg ROFL

[Starvid]

The worst thing is that an awful number of very serious and clever people who know nothing about energy actually believe EIA projections.

"Rebound to 3.5 mbpd", yeah right, and the US will soon rebound to and beyond it's 1971 peak.

[lexicon]

Of course! They'll just pull another Cantarell from out of their sleeve! That's the ticket!

[Newsseeker]

I'm sure that in the EIA forecast department they have a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at a spinning wheel.

They actually use dolphins and color coded rings. It's more accurate that way.

[Gazzatrone]

'World Energy 2030 Politically Acceptable Scenario.xls',

Where would the EIA be without Microsoft Office Excel?

[fluffy]

The Energy Information Administration said in its 2007 International Energy Outlook that Mexican oil production is expected to decline to 3 million barrels per day by 2012 before gradually rebounding to reach 3.5 million bpd by 2030.[/i] ".

Do these people actually read their own website?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11b.xls

Simple linear extrapolation puts production below 3mbpd by this time next year.. and there are no brand new fields to put on production as far as I know.

[Twilight]

Bury the figures, bold the abstract, as students always say...

[jedinvest]

This seems like a huge confidence game. Wouldn't we (not we, but everyone else 'WE') be better off just admitting that oil will run out?? Does someone, in positions of power, think that the collective WE cannot handle this piece of news?? Worst yet, are THEY secretly planning to DO something about it once TSHTF?? Is this WHY:

1. We are in Iraq guarding what oil is left, although good luck trying to pump it out.
2. Even our national guard is now under federal control. What do THEY intend to do with us??
3. Oh, California just authorized more prison contruction. Could come in handy someday very soon!

[DantesPeak]

People's Revolutionary Army, or EPR, a tiny group that has largely been inactive in recent years, has claimed it was behind a series of oil and natural gas pipeline blasts in Mexico.

Mexico Confirms Attacks on Gas Pipelines
By MARK STEVENSON 07.10.07, 5:55 PM ET

Mexico's government said Tuesday that a series of gas pipeline explosions were attacks aimed at weakening the nation's democratic institutions after a small, leftist rebel group claimed responsibility.

The Interior Department said it was stepping up security at "strategic installations" across Mexico after an explosion Tuesday at a pipeline run by the state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, and two other blasts that rocked gas ducts on Thursday. No one was injured in the blasts.

Forbes

Mexico Group Claims Responsibility for Pemex Blasts

By Patrick Harrington and Thomas Black

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- A Mexican guerrilla group claimed responsibility for two explosions this week on natural gas pipelines owned by Mexico's state oil monopoly.

President Felipe Calderon ordered increased security at Mexico's ``strategic installations,'' presidential spokesman Maximiliano Cortazar said. The government plans to carry out a probe and punish those responsible, Cortazar said.

``Even though this is a small group, the risk is the perception that Mexico is sliding into anarchy,'' said Chappell Lawson, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Calderon has ``got to find these guys and get them before they start blowing up other stuff.''

Bloomberg

[jeffvail]

I'm surprised there aren't any responses on this news item yet. I think it's very significant--thanks for highlighting it. I wrote a piece over the weekend on the decline of the Nation-State in Mexico that will be up on the Oil Drum probably Thursday. This is a problematic development--there are already enough "above ground factors" causing problems for Mexican oil production, the last thing they need is a Nigerian-style infrastructure insurgency...

[DantesPeak]

Mexico Vows to Step Up Security
Following Gas-Pipeline Attacks
Associated Press
July 10, 2007 8:51 p.m.

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's government on Tuesday called a series of gas-pipeline explosions a threat to the nation's democratic institutions and vowed to step up security after a guerrilla group claimed responsibility for the blasts.

The Interior Department said it would take measures to protect "strategic installations" across Mexico after an explosion Tuesday at a pipeline run by the state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, and two other blasts that rocked gas ducts on Thursday.

"The Mexican government categorically condemns the attacks against Pemex facilities. This criminal conduct aims to weaken democratic institutions, the patrimony of Mexicans and the safety of their families," the statement said.

While officials said investigations were continuing into the cause of the blasts, the statement by the Interior Department -- responsible for domestic security -- came a short time after a small guerrilla group said its members had planted explosives on the pipelines.

WSJ/AP
Wall Street Journal may have free access today

[DantesPeak]

I'm surprised there aren't any responses on this news item yet. I think it's very significant--thanks for highlighting it. I wrote a piece over the weekend on the decline of the Nation-State in Mexico that will be up on the Oil Drum probably Thursday. This is a problematic development--there are already enough "above ground factors" causing problems for Mexican oil production, the last thing they need is a Nigerian-style infrastructure insurgency...

Thanks much, I'll look forward to that, but don't forget to mention this little problem they had:






Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007

[Jack]

It appears the games afoot, and we're about to experience interesting times. High corn prices won't help - but the desire for ethanol won't let them go down.

[Eli]

Ok I am going to play devil's advocate here.

This may not be that big of deal at all.

How much gas do the pipelines supply? Where exactly were the attacks?

[DantesPeak]

Ok I am going to play devil's advocate here.

This may not be that big of deal at all.

How much gas do the pipelines supply? Where exactly were the attacks?

Exports of natural gas weren't affected, said Marta Avelar, a Pemex spokeswoman. The other damaged pipelines supply domestic users, she said. ``The problem is local,'' Avelar said.

They also said oil exports weren't affected.

Some factories getting natural gas halted their operations, but there was not much word on what else was disrupted. That refinery blast pictures above hardly made it into US news, so don't expect the full story on this from US media sources.

However I do not think the size of the blasts by themselves is a concern, but what they represent. Mexico is very vunerable to this type of terrorism, let's see how they try to stop it.