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THE Mexico Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 08 Dec 2010, 16:32:14

Cid_Yama wrote:Canterell has dried up. They need a new supergiant and fast. Too bad the likelyhood of that is about nil.

Time for the US to prepare for a total failed state on it's borders. Mexico doesn't have a replacement revenue source and the oil pretty much paid for everything.


Here's The Real Reason Mexico Just Opened Itself Up To Private Oil Production
Joe Weisenthal | Dec. 8, 2010, 10:22 AM | 844 | comment 15

For the first time in 70 years, Mexico will allow private oil production, ending the monopoly held by state firm PEMEX, according to CNBC. The reason for this should be clear from this chart from Gregor MacDonald: Oil production at Mexico's premier Cantarell field has been in frefall. Either Mexico has reached its natural limits, or state-run oil is a disaster. Mexico is obviously praying it's the latter.
Image


Cantarell pumping less than 500,000 bpd
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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 08 Dec 2010, 16:48:08

Overwhelming evidence reveals massive fraud in the 2006 Mexican presidential election between “president-elect” Felipe Calderón of the conservative PAN party and Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the more liberal PRD. In an election riddled with “arithmetic mistakes,” a partial recount uncovered evidence of abundant stuffing and stealing of ballots that favored the PAN victory.

Meanwhile, US interests were significantly invested in the outcome of Mexico’s election. Though neither candidate had any choice but to cooperate with the US agenda, important differences existed around energy policy, specifically with regard to foreign privatization of Mexican oil and gas reserves.

Though the energy sector of Mexico is already deeply penetrated by US capital, as it stands, the Mexican government owns and controls the oil industry, with very tight restrictions on any foreign investment. Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the fifth largest oil company in the world, exports 80 percent of its oil to the US. Sixty percent of its revenue ($30 billion per year) currently goes to the Mexican government, accounting for more than 40 percent of the Mexican government’s annual revenues.

Calderón promises a more thorough and streamlined exploitation of Mexico’s oil, demanding that Mexico remove barriers to private/foreign investment (which are currently written into the Mexican Constitution). Obrador, on the other hand, insisted on maintaining national ownership and control of the energy sector in order to build economic and social stability in Mexico.

In June 2005, Mexico signed an accord called Alliance for the Security and Prosperity of North America (ASPAN) with Canada and the US. The point was made that this accord would be binding on whoever became president of Mexico in the upcoming elections. Included in ASPAN is a guarantee to fill the energy needs of the US market, as well as agreements to forge “a common theory of security,” allowing US Homeland Security measures to be implemented in Mexico.

Five months later, in November 2005, an “audition” was held with Mexican presidential candidates before members of the US Chamber of Commerce in Mexico City. All candidates were asked whether they would open the energy sector in Mexico, especially the nationalized oil company, Pemex, to US exploitation.

Felipe Calderón received resounding applause when he answered that he is in favor of private investment in Pemex, and of weakening the labor unions. He also received applause when he stated that he supported George Bush’s guest worker program and that he agreed the border needed to be secured or militarized. Obrador said that he would not allow risk capital investment in Pemex—but hastened to add that other sectors would be opened to investment.

Calderón won the audition, Obrador was granted the role of understudy. Former US Ambassador to Mexico Jeffrey Davidow told Obrador, “If you win the election, we will support you.” But when Obrador appeared to be the front-runner in the election, PAN allied with forces in the US to launch a feverish campaign against him.

Though US laws prevent US influence in other countries’ elections, anti-Obrador ads airing on Mexican TV were designed by US firms and illegally financed by business councils that included such transnationals as Wal-Mart and Halliburton. US election advisers Rob Allyn and Dick Morris were contracted to develop a media campaign that would foment fear that Obrador, with ties to Chavez and Castro, posed a dangerous Socialist threat to Mexico.

Outgoing president Vicente Fox violated campaign law by making dozens of anti-Obrador speeches during the campaign, as the PAN party illegally saturated airwaves with swift-boat style attack ads against Obrador. Under Mexican law, ruling party interference is a serious crime and grounds for annulling an election.

While Obrador’s campaign and hundreds of independent election observers documented several hundred cases of election fraud in making their case for a recount, most Mexican TV stations failed to report the irregularities that surfaced. Days after the election The New York Times irresponsibly declared Calderón the winner, and Bush called to personally congratulate Calderón on his “win,” even though no victor had been declared under Mexican law. Illegal media campaigns combined with grand-scale fraud had had their effect.

link

There was clear evidence that the election was stolen. Whether you believe that or not is immaterial. The Mexican people believe it and since the election there has been a popular revolution taking place.

The drug cartel meme is just a cover to hide the popular revolution taking place in Mexico.

back in 2007 the EPR began disrupting the energy distribution network.

The Popular Revolutionary Army, or EPR for its initials in Spanish, said Tuesday's explosion and two similar attacks on Pemex pipelines in Guanajuato state last week marked the beginning of a "national campaign of harassment against the interests of the oligarchy and this illegitimate government."

The people of Mexico are not taking this lying down. Calderon in response has turned the army loose against the Mexican people and has been accused by independent human rights organizations of committing atrocites against the Mexican people.

The report by the National Human Rights Commission is the first official document to back up long-standing allegations of human rights abuses by soldiers ordered by President Felipe Calderon. Soldiers allegedly submerged at least one person in a well, sexually abused two children and raped two teenage girls.
In Michoacan, Soberanes said soldiers rounded up and tortured at least seven adults and one child in a small town.

link

The killing of two young metalworkers in a military siege against strikers at a steel mill in Mexico signals a sharp escalation in the class struggle in Mexico.

Two young workers were shot to death, and more than 30 others were injured on Thursday, April 20, following an armed assault by Mexican security forces seeking to put an end to a strike at the Sicartsa steel mill in the city of Lazaro Cardenas, in the southwestern Mexican state of Michoacan.

Workers who spoke to the Mexican Daily La Jornada described the attack as a wanton assault in which state and federal security forces — one thousand strong — fired indiscriminately on picketing miners, who resisted fiercely.

Eyewitnesses reported that after killing the first worker, 19-year-old Mario Alberto Castillo, a cop put his boot on Mario’s bleeding head and dared the strikers to rescue him. A second worker, Hector Alvarez, 36, was killed shortly thereafter. The New York Times and a Mexican daily, La Crisis, reported that a third person may have been run over and killed by a police vehicle.

The military-style assault began at 7 a.m. and lasted until 1 p.m. It was initiated by Michoacan State police with the support of the Federal Preventive Police. Initial reports also suggested that a heavily armed elite squad — the Grupo Aereo de Reaccion Inmediata (The Immediate Reaction Airborne Group, GARI) — fired at the pickets from helicopters. This operation was well prepared; while most of the police units appear to have been armed only with tear gas canisters and truncheons, a disciplined squad, armed with AR-15s, AK-47s (two kinds of assault rifles) and 9 mm pistols, was assigned the task of shooting at the workers. GARI is an elite commando unit normally used to combat terrorist and drug-gang activity. Following the confrontation, the strikers discovered scores of spent rifle shells littering the floor of the plant. The entire operation brings to mind the attacks on students and workers during Mexico’s dirty war in the 1970s

link

This is no drug war. This is the people rising up against an illegitimate government and that government using it's military in an attempt to quash the rebellion.
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Wed 08 Dec 2010, 17:15:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 08 Dec 2010, 17:53:10

On Monday, before a large audience of government officials, representatives of NGOs, reporters, and students, CPJ's senior program coordinator for the Americas, Carlos Lauría, said that the level of crime violence, and corruption facing the press in Mexico, where more than 30 journalists have been murdered or have gone missing since Felipe Calderón took office in December of 2006


The Committee to Protect Journalists condemned Wednesday's shooting attack against Mexican newspaper El Sur in the port city of Acapulco, Guerrero state. Unidentified armed men fired at the paper and then stormed into the newsroom and threatened to set it on fire, according to local news reports and CPJ interviews.


On Monday, the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington hosted a panel discussion on the press freedom crisis in Mexico. Carlos Lauría and I spoke about CPJ report "Silence or Death in the Mexican Press"


"As foreign correspondents covering a country at war, we have to apply the same rules that you would in a country like Iraq, or Afghanistan. I was recently in Ciudad Juárez with a photojournalist who covered Bosnia, Baghdad, and Kabul and she said, this is worst than covering those places. At least there you had a sense of who's who. Here you're covering ghosts.

"For too long we've tried telling ourselves that as foreign correspondents we're afforded a measure of protection. We're fooling ourselves. The killings are so indiscriminate these days that you can die not just because of the work you do, the words you write, the questions you're asking, or what you may know - In Mexico they kill you not just because of what you know, but because of what they think you might know.

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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Questionmark » Wed 08 Dec 2010, 18:05:31

pstarr wrote:
Questionmark wrote:I see it more as a civil war. It's organized and on too large a scale to be considered random acts of crime or violence. It isn't anarchy, the country is being torn apart by several competing powers. The conflict is between several clearly defined powers.
You are still stuck in a BAU mainstream metaphor that removes responsibility where it really belongs. You want to blame the victims.

People want drugs. Their lives suck, there is no opportunity, machines make our food and stuff, people are mostly redundant, life without opportunity is hopeless,

Entrepreneurship hard work street capitalism is the only answer.

Let people have their painkillers. Who are you to deny them? A Christian?


I'm not trying to blame anyone here. I'm just in favor of accurately describing what's currently going on in Mexico as a war instead of downplaying it as "anarchy" or "increased crime." You're attaching an argument to my posts that isn't there.
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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Questionmark » Thu 09 Dec 2010, 02:32:35

pstarr wrote:
Questionmark wrote:I'm not trying to blame anyone here. I'm just in favor of accurately describing what's currently going on in Mexico as a war instead of downplaying it as "anarchy" or "increased crime." You're attaching an argument to my posts that isn't there.
I am not downplaying anything. Anarchy and societal collapse are very serious. Mislabeling this as a "war" by the right-wing media doesn't help. The warmongers want to use this excuse to invade a sovereign country and turn our own US drug problems into a money-making war.

This is not between "Good" (law enforcement, US Americans army, border patrol, law-abiding citizens, whoever?) and "evil" (drug dealers). The real problem needs real solutions. Mexico is collapsing and the drug problem is merely one symptom.


You're completely missing my point. There are several very clearly defined factions fighting openly and in large numbers to control various parts of the country. Completely ignoring U.S. involvement and interests, there is a very real and literal war going on in Mexico right now. There are good old fashioned land and sea battles going on between the cartels and the federal government. If the cartels could get their hands on military planes then I'm sure they would be engaged in bombing runs as well.

Again, this has nothing to do with the U.S. or right wing propaganda. Mexico is engaged in civil war.
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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Questionmark » Thu 09 Dec 2010, 11:54:25

pstarr wrote:
Questionmark wrote:Mexico is engaged in civil war.
So are you ready to sign up with the militias?


Why on earth would I do that?
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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Questionmark » Thu 09 Dec 2010, 17:36:28

pstarr wrote:
Questionmark wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Questionmark wrote:Mexico is engaged in civil war.
So are you ready to sign up with the militias?


Why on earth would I do that?

Your government obviously doesn't care enough about this "war" to do anything. "Wars" have a nasty habit of ignoring borders and spilling over to drag in the innocent. Are you going to wait for the heavy artillery, tanks, hordes of uniformed soldiers, and wailing mothers and children to come spilling over the dusty plains? Or are you going to join up to halt this impending catastrophe?


What's wrong with you? Why are you being so hostile and what is so difficult about differentiating between the actual civil war going on in Mexico and the United States failed global anti drug campaign?

And no, I fully expect things to continue to degrade and have have held this view for several years now. In fact, Mexico's decline into violence was one of the first topics I discussed when joining this forum. I realize that violence tends to spill over borders and I have no intention of stopping it. I see it as an inevitable consequence of peak oil in this part of the world. I'm just glad I live in NYC, about as far away from the southern border as you can get.
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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 09 Dec 2010, 19:54:30

No Mexican Zombies here yet, approximately 150 miles from the Mexican border....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f_jLHHCFaw
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Re: 1st Time in 70 Years, Mexico to Allow Private Oil Drilli

Unread postby Questionmark » Thu 09 Dec 2010, 20:20:46

1. U.S. media does not portray the violence in Mexico as a civil war.

2. Statistics on violence in Mexico are severely inaccurate and can't be trusted. Not to mention that it's hypocritical and dishonest to complain about the mainstream narrative and then cite mainstream statistics.

3. Nothing about what you're saying is at odds with what I'm saying. Failed states very often will splinter and experience civil war.

4. I don't believe the cartels are the cause of Mexico's problems but that the violence is just another symptom of declining oil production and general mismanagement by the federal government.
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If You Ignore Reality Mexico's Oil Production Is Increasing

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 18 May 2011, 08:47:13

Pemex: Fighting Output Declines
Latin Business Chronicle / Tuesday, April 26, 2011


José Alberro, director of the Berkeley Research Group and former CEO of Pemex Gas and Basic Petrochemicals: Which country's oil production grew the most during the period 2004-2010? Not Brazil (577,000 bpd); not Azerbaijan (732,000 bpd) and not even Angola (887,000). Surprisingly it is Mexico, if Cantarell's production is excluded. Cantarell's production peaked at 2.2 million bpd in 2004 and reached 500,000 bpd last year. The facts that Mexican proven reserves dropped for the 12th consecutive year in 2010 and that total production was 24 percent below its 2004 maximum are attributable to the declination of that aging field. Given that total oil production in Mexico increased by only 800,000 bpd, 'non-Cantarell' production grew 900,000 bpd, a rate that tops any other crude oil producer.


Doesn't that just fix everything! IF PEMEX wasn't in catastrophic depletion they would be doing great!

Image

Oil production is expected to increase in 2011 and reserve additions to cover 100 percent of production, a noteworthy turnaround.


Yeah as soon as they get back up that cliff they are falling off everything will be great!

The hope is that the application of modern technology will increase recovery factors, thereby bringing additional production in line.


I hate to break the news to him, but he put his hope in the wrong thing. :-D :lol:

You can't make up for having used up most of the oil by deploying modern technology to produce the remaining scraps.
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Re: If You Ignore Reality Mexico's Oil Production Is Increas

Unread postby Fishman » Wed 18 May 2011, 14:21:13

Bratticus, a very important article. Most here already know Mexico is in teminal decline. Most others don't even know Mexico is an exporter of oil (well, not for long). So, the world's largest economy's neighbor is getting ready to go from maybe a second world country to maybe a fourth world country. Learn Spanish or build a wall.
Obama, the FUBAR presidency gets scraped off the boot
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Re: If You Ignore Reality Mexico's Oil Production Is Increas

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 18 May 2011, 14:52:27

Just some facts from recent presentations I attended that were put on by Pemex officials. They are quite out in the open about the quick collapse of Cantarell but note in the last year they have been able to level off production. According to a contact of mine who has a service company which contracts to Pemex Cantarell could be partially "repaired" but it will require western completion technology that Pemex doesn't have access to except through Schlumberger and Halliburton. The deals they have had with Schlumberger and Halliburton over the past number of years are largely doomed to failure as these mega-service companies get paid regardless of the outcome. The new service participation agreements Pemex are offering seek to tie performance to payment which might help with both Cantarall as well as Chicontepec. If you take the production numbers published by Pemex at face value (no reason not too as far as I can see) they have replaced some of the decline at Cantarell by quickly ramping up offshore production at three fields often referred to as KMZ (Koo, Maloob and Zaap) which puts overall Mexico production back to where it was in the mid nineties. The issue is that KMZ is expected to reach peak production in 2013 so Mexico needs further additions given everything else is currently on decline.
Their plan is through the participation aggreements to ramp up production in some brown fields intially down in the onshore area SW Bay of Campeche followed by a number of projects in Chicontepec followed by redevelopment of some mature fields in the Golden Lane area. There is also a plan to explore offshore Gulf of Mexico (likely not to have much prospectivity from what I've seen) as well as explore the extension of the Eagleford shale play from Texas into the Burgos basin in northern Mexico. Their projections for the future are very aggressive and probably not obtainable but if they can get foreign companies interested in the brown and mature field developments I think there is a fair bit of upside there. They could perhaps keep production relatively flat for sometime before decline in all fields takes over.
As an example the Golden Lane pools in the Tampico area have incredible reservoir properties. One of the wells produced oil all on its own at 260,000 bopd for a number of years back in the early nineteen hundreds. The major problem has been early water production which was exacerbated by the production practices of the past. Current average recovery for these pools is around 30% but the reservoir quality and oil viscosity would suggest it should be much higher when compared to similar high permeability carbonate reservoirs around the world. A 10% improvement in recovery factor would be very significant here.
For those interested there are a number of presentations available on the Pemex website that speak to this. Some are in Spanish but there are some in English as well.
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Re: If You Ignore Reality Mexico's Oil Production Is Increas

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 18 May 2011, 15:36:23

2.5 MMBPD is still a pretty big sponge at this point in time.
Pemex numbers are: 1P 10.4 GBbls, 17.6 TCF, 2P 10.3 GBbLS, 20 TCF, 3P 10.1 GBbls, 22 TCF.
Interesting to note that Cantarell and KMZ make up an equal amount of the bulk of 1P oil. Chicontepec makes up slightly greater than half of the 2P and 3P for both gas and oil.
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