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The Methane Thread pt. 2

Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 10:28:06


March 2020: 1876.4 ppb
March 2019: 1866.3 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 10:29:16

Image
Image
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 15 Jul 2020, 15:03:02

Thanks, as always, for the great graphs and data, T

To put them in some context:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -heat-rise


Methane rises to highest level on record

Livestock farming and fossil fuels are main causes of rise in gas, which is 28 times [probably much more] more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat


Since 2000 discharges of the odourless, colourless gas have risen by more than 50m tonnes a year, equivalent to 350m cars or double the total emissions of Germany or France, according to the latest Methane Budget study by a global team of scientists.

The findings, published in Earth System Science Data and Environmental Research Letters, show that more than half of the methane in the atmosphere now comes from human sources. Of this share, ranching, agriculture and landfills account for about two-thirds, while the fossil fuel industry, composed of oil, gas and coal, makes up the rest.

In 2017, the most recent year for which data is available, the planet’s atmosphere absorbed almost 600m tonnes of methane, up 9% from the early years of the century when concentrations were relatively stable.

Rob Jackson, a professor at the Stanford University School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, in California, chairs the Global Carbon Project and led one of the papers. He said human activities since the industrial revolution had increased the amount of methane in the atmosphere by 2.6 times, compared with 1.7 times for carbon dioxide.

As methane is more potent then CO2 and shorter-lived in its climate effects, it should be a focus of efforts to cut emissions, said Jackson.

“CO2 is still the beast to slay but warming from methane is the next most important. Acting aggressively on methane can buy us time to address CO2 and shave half a degree off the peak temperature,” he said. “I am optimistic about opportunities to find methane super-emitters, using drones and satellites. But it is harder to cut emissions from a billion burping cows and a billion sheep, where dietary choices and manure management matter.”

The change is markedly different by sector and location. Agricultural methane emissions rose nearly 11% in the study period, while those from fossil fuels rose 15%.

Regionally, the biggest increases – of 10m to 15m tonnes a year – were in Asia, Africa and Oceania, largely due to farming. In the US most of the 4.5m-tonne rise over the past decade has been attributed to fracking and others forms of oil and gas drilling, piping and consumption.

Europe was the only continent to register a decline thanks to strong measures to reduce emissions from manure and industry
. The Arctic also saw little change, suggesting fears of methane being released from melting permafrost had not been realised up to 2017.

The authors said there could not be a worldwide stabilisation in methane emissions unless governments took rapid action.




https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... 326/ab9ed2
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... ab9ed2/pdf
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Jul 2020, 21:35:05

Yet another element to Arctic carbon (not just methane) feedback:

40 More Gt of CO2 Baked In: Plant Roots Increase Carbon Emission from Permafrost Soils


https://phys.org/news/2020-07-roots-car ... soils.html

Plant roots in soil stimulate microbial decomposition, a mechanism called the priming effect. An international research team co-lead by Frida Keuper from INRAE and Umeå University and Birgit Wild from Stockholm University shows that the priming effect alone can cause emission of 40 billion tons carbon from permafrost by 2100. The study was published today in Nature Geoscience.

Scientists have previously anticipated that rapidly rising temperatures will drive the emission of 50-100 billion ton permafrost carbon by 2100. On top of that, plant roots feed sugar to the microorganisms in the soil, which the microbes can use to break down more soil organic matter—the priming effect—resulting in even higher greenhouse gas emissions.

The researchers combined maps of plant activity and data on soil carbon content from the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database with an extensive literature survey on priming and plant root properties, to estimate the priming effect in permafrost ecosystems and its influence on greenhouse gas emissions.

They show that the priming effect increases soil microbial respiration by 12 percent, which causes the additional loss of 40 billion tons of carbon by 2100 compared to current predictions for permafrost. This equals almost a quarter of the remaining "carbon budget" for human activities to limit global warming to max 1.5°C.


Carbon loss from northern circumpolar permafrost soils amplified by rhizosphere priming, Nature Geoscience (2020).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-0607-0
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Jul 2020, 16:32:34

As planet edges closer to multiple climate tipping points, scientists identify first active methane gas leak in Antarctica

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/as-pla ... ntarctica/
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 27 Jul 2020, 07:18:34

I do not have time to digest this article this morning but I see it as something to check into considering how dangerous a methane bomb would be. So I am not agreeing with or dismissing this article:

“Methane apocalypse? Not likely.”
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/methane-a ... t-certain/
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Wed 29 Jul 2020, 13:12:02

Tanada wrote:Image


Interesting how the 2000s warming "stall" shows up in CH4. But if you go back to the 1980s you see that there was an acceleration that peaked in the 1990s that sits on top of a long-term growth trend. This 1980 and 1990s surge is something is hard to explain. Probably some critical point reached from human stressing of forests.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 30 Jul 2020, 08:30:05

dissident wrote:
Tanada wrote:Image


Interesting how the 2000s warming "stall" shows up in CH4. But if you go back to the 1980s you see that there was an acceleration that peaked in the 1990s that sits on top of a long-term growth trend. This 1980 and 1990s surge is something is hard to explain. Probably some critical point reached from human stressing of forests.


That big upsurge coincides with the USA falling in love with small gas turbine power plants to supplement existing generation. Back in the late 1970's GE started selling a LOT of GT units to the Navy to power smaller ships and with the mass production they built for the job they ended up with a lot of extra capacity that made it cheap to build GT power plants along existing natural gas pipelines that could switch on for peak demand periods and then back off again when no longer needed very rapidly. For the utility companies it was seen as a big win because the small plants are cheap modular units that they can expand at will to meet growing demand.

From the environmental standpoint they added a whole bunch of new connections to the natural gas network and even the best burner system is not 100% efficient all the time. That means the 1% or so of unburned gas that goes through the turbine is dumped straight into the atmosphere along with whatever tiny leaks develop in all those new pipes.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 13:45:59

Thanks for the explanation. So direct industrial contributions are a factor. So many ways for things to get worse compared to so few ways for them to get better.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 14:47:57

Subjectivist wrote:
From the environmental standpoint they added a whole bunch of new connections to the natural gas network and even the best burner system is not 100% efficient all the time. That means the 1% or so of unburned gas that goes through the turbine is dumped straight into the atmosphere along with whatever tiny leaks develop in all those new pipes.
Yes but every NG turbine unit that replaces and old coal burning base plant produces a lot less pollution both CO2 and leaked Methane then the coal plant did.
It will be a while before oncoming pollution free renewables are available at a scale that can compete with coal or Natural gas fired base load. Until then NG is a much better option then old obsolete coal plants.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 02 Aug 2020, 15:49:03

New study confirms extensive gas leaks in the North Sea

"The positions of the boreholes and the location and extent of the gas pockets indicate that this area of the North Sea alone has the potential to emit 900 to 3700 tonnes of methane every year. 'However, more than 15,000 boreholes have been drilled in the entire North Sea,'

"In the North Sea, about half of the boreholes are at such shallow water depths that part of the emitted methane can escape into the atmosphere."

https://www.geomar.de/en/news/article/n ... er-nordsee
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 09 Aug 2020, 14:34:40


April 2020: 1876.3 ppb
April 2019: 1865.3 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 09 Aug 2020, 17:03:37

Thanks for the update, T
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 11 Aug 2020, 14:20:14

A grim reminder that it's not just methane (and CO2) that comes out of thawing permafrost:

Anthrax Outbreak In Russia Thought To Be Result Of Thawing Permafrost
Russia is fighting a mysterious anthrax outbreak in a remote corner of Siberia. Dozens of people have been hospitalized; one child has died. The government airlifted some families out because more than 2,000 reindeer have been infected.



Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... permafrost
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 11 Aug 2020, 22:41:17

Trump's EPA drops regulations designed to reduce methane emissions in the USA

epa-roll-back-methane-emissions-limits]

Just another disgraceful move by the Trump administration, this time having the EPA roll back limits on methane emissions. Meanwhile methane levels in the atmosphere continue to go higher and higher, driving global warming to ever higher levels.

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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 12 Aug 2020, 01:33:29

Plantagenet wrote:Trump's EPA drops regulations designed to reduce methane emissions in the USA

epa-roll-back-methane-emissions-limits]

Just another disgraceful move by the Trump administration, this time having the EPA roll back limits on methane emissions. Meanwhile methane levels in the atmosphere continue to go higher and higher, driving global warming to ever higher levels.

SHEEESH!

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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 12 Aug 2020, 06:52:41

Warming world will be 'devastating' for frozen peatlands

The world's peatlands will become a large source of greenhouse gases as temperatures rise this century, say scientists.

Right now, huge amounts of carbon are stored in boggy, often frozen regions stretching across northern parts of the world.

But much of the permanently frozen land will thaw this century, say experts.

This will release warming gases at a rate that could be 30-50% greater than previous estimates.

Using data compiled from more than 7,000 field observations, the authors of this new study were able to generate the most accurate maps to date of the peatlands, their depth and the amount of warming gases they contain.

They show that the boggy terrain covers 3.7 million sq kilometres (1.42 million sq miles)...

If this new peatland estimate is included with all the estimates for permafrost melting, it is projected to equal the annual emissions of the EU and UK by 2100.

"The only way to limit the permafrost carbon feedback is to reduce global warming," said Dr Hugelius.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53726487
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 11 Sep 2020, 10:39:13


May 2020: 1874.7 ppb
May 2019: 1861.9 ppb
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 21 Sep 2020, 06:43:38

“LNG Powered Shipping Fleet Could Double This Decade”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... ecade.html

“There are 80,000 registered ships globally, Reuters reported earlier this week, but fewer than 400 of them are powered by LNG. That’s a drop in the bucket. But by 2030, the number of LNG-powered ships could rise to 1,000, according to the head of global LNG bunkering at Petronas, Malaysia’s state energy company.”
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 27 Sep 2020, 06:13:14

“Natural Gas Will Rule The US Energy Market For Decades”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... cades.html

“according to a new report from Energy Market Advisors, it will rule the energy mix of the United States even 20 years from now. The reasons for this continued dominance are simple enough even if they may be unpleasant for the most hard-line supporters of renewables such as solar and wind. Gas is not only cheap, but its supply is also continuous, so, importantly, it does not need battery storage the way solar and wind do, which increases the total costs of such installations even if other costs are falling, which they are. These falling costs will undoubtedly pave the way to much more solar- and wind-heavy energy mix across North America, while coal sinks into oblivion, partly driven by its worse economics, the report said. By 2044, close to half of the existing coal power generation capacity will be gone. At the same time, solar will grow from 60 GW this year to some 250 GW in 2044 – an impressive fourfold growth. Wind will grow, too, albeit more modestly, from 115 GW today to 191 GW in 2044. But gas will rule them all. To date, natural gas accounts for some 41 percent of North American energy generation. In 2044, according to Energy Market Advisors, a division of Hitachi ABB, gas will account for 43 percent. This, compared with the explosive growth seen in solar and wind, does not seem particularly impressive. The thing to remember is, however, that even with this almost absent growth, gas will be the fuel driving the biggest portion of power generation in North America. And this means that the fossil fuel era is far from over, really.”
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