[americandream]

@Graeme

So why the Japanese post if Star Trek is with us? There can be no tipping point if the threshold is infinite and your thread becomes essentially, obsolete, and pointless.

However, UNTIL we completely cross that threshold in terms of fully resourcing/rendering viable, capitalism, I refer you to prayer and of course, your mums admonition on not spending your pennies on lollies in the hope that the toothfairy would come avisiting.

[Graeme]

AD, If you were Prime Minister, what would you do?

[stephankrasner]

I don't want to be negative or anything. I like Japan and all the great creative spirit and hand craft built into the culture. But most of them are serious consumers and have a tangle of government bureaucracy that rivals ours. They also depend heavily on other countries for food and resources to keep building the cars and computer chips that fuels their economy. If the bottom falls out of the world economy bubble no amount of renewable tech is going to save them. Their goal, like ours, is growth. I still hold to the idea that NO politician will ever say that growth is no longer possible.

[americandream]

AD, If you were Prime Minister, what would you do?

For one, nation states are headed for the dust bin of history. In addftion PM's are largely figureheads under treaties such as the free trade agreements. No one on the "left" or right can really change anything. Any so called leftist who tells you otherwise is lying.

The die was cast when the first acre was enclosed. However, the longer we prolong capitalism, the worst will be the eventual predicament our successors will find themselves in (unless of course we can fully resource globalised capitalism's 10% growth requirements for ever as well as close its pollution loop.)

It's like a drug addiction. The longer the addict perists in his addiction, the more catastrophic his eventual fate.

[eastbay]

All those alternative energy schemes enroute to Japan will require public money in one form or another, just like almost everywhere else. And when the public money dries up it'll be tough to keep on greening.

[Graeme]

Japan Weighs Its Energy Options Amid Nuclear, Renewables Debate

Phasing out nuclear power in Japan will cost the country the equivalent of $622 billion to build a power grid around renewable energy and means it will fail to meet a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

That’s an estimate from the government as it mulls going ahead with a recommendation made today by its own advisory body to eliminate use of nuclear power — an option also favored by the public — in its first post-Fukushima energy policy.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has called a press conference tomorrow evening in Tokyo when he may follow the advice of the ruling party advisory board and phase out nuclear plants over the next two decades. That would require more use of fossil fuels as wind and solar plants are built, meaning Japan won’t meet a pledge to cut greenhouse gases 25 percent over the three decades starting in 1990.

“There is no doubt the government will scrap the 25 percent target,” Keigo Akimoto at the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth wrote in an e-mail response to questions. Without nuclear, Japan would have to buy 320 million tons of overseas emission credits a year to meet the target, “and amid higher sales taxes and electricity tariffs, there is no way the Japanese public would accept such a massive purchase,” the researcher said.

Meantime, companies from mobile phone operator Softbank Corp. to convenience store chain Lawson Inc. are entering renewable energy as polls and public hearings show a majority of citizens want an exit from nuclear despite the cost. The government is debating to reduce nuclear energy supply to zero percent, 15 percent, or 20-25 percent by 2030.

‘Full Speed’

“No matter which option is selected, renewable energy must be increased in Japan at full speed,” Japan’s second-richest man, Softbank Chairman Masayoshi Son said at an Aug. 29 news conference to announce a plan to build the country’s biggest solar plant.

Under the zero nuclear option, Japan would need to invest 43.6 trillion yen ($548 billion) on solar, wind and other types of renewable energy and 5.2 trillion yen on power grids, according to the government. At least 26.1 trillion yen in spending on renewables would be needed even if the world’s third-largest economy stays with nuclear power.

renewableenergyworld

[seahorse3]

Where's JD to weigh in on this Japanese debate? He lives there and was always pro nuclear as the end all answer.

[Loki]

$622 billion over a decade or more really doesn't seem like all that much money for an economic powerhouse like Japan. If that buys them electricity independence without the threat of a catastrophe like Fukushima, I'd say it's a good deal. It'd be great if the Japanese can figure out how to run a massive grid like theirs entirely on renewables. Once they do that, maybe they can figure out the transportation energy problem

Funny how Germany and Japan led the world to the brink 60 years ago, but are now leading the way forward, at least in terms of addressing some of our energy and climate problems.

ETA: I didn't see this part of the article: "Japan going zero nuclear by 2030 would require 35 percent of electricity supply coming from renewable sources, while the other two scenarios call for a clean energy ratio of as much as 30 percent."

The other 65% is what, coal and NG? I think I'd rather see nuclear stay than more coal burned.

[Graeme]

Japan risks angering both sides with energy mix plan

Efforts by Japan's government to craft an energy mix that will respond to growing anti-nuclear sentiment among voters after the Fukushima crisis without alienating powerful pro-atomic energy interests look in danger of satisfying neither side.

The government is expected to announce as early as Monday an energy portfolio plan to replace a 2010 programme that had called for boosting nuclear power's share of electricity supply to more than half from nearly 30 percent before the crisis.


"If energy cannot be stably supplied at an economically efficient price, not only will the growth strategy be set back, the hollowing-out of industry and employment will be accelerated in the midst of intensified global competition," Japan's biggest business lobby, Keidanren, said in July.

reuters

[Laromi]

Japanese utility mulls thorium reactor for safe nuclear,
By Mark Halper | June 5, 2012, 10:20 PM "PDT researcher, Takashi Kamei, told a thorium conference in Chicago last week that Chubu Electric Power Co. has launched a research program aimed at improving the safety of nuclear power plants, and that, “This research center includes the use of thorium as a future fuel.” (http://www.smartplanet.com) With ten/fifteen years time frame for commissioning of a nuclear power station and Japans' current, and no doubt projected need for stable base grid supplied energy, the notion is hard to dismiss; given the tinkering around Japan is doing at present, that a thorium/nuclear reactor is not the current principal choice.

[Loki]

Bullet points for 2013:

--More LNG and coal imports
--Fewer oil imports
--Big trade deficit due to energy imports

TOKYO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Japan's imports of liquefied
natural gas (LNG) rose to another record in 2013 as the
country's second complete shutdown of its nuclear stations since
the Fukushima disaster in 2011 forced utilities to burn more
fossil fuels to generate power.

The soaring cost of fuel imports let Japan to post a record
annual trade gap of 11.47 trillion yen ($112.06 billion) in
2013, up from 6.94 trillion yen in the previous year and a third
straight year of deficit.

LNG imports increased 0.2 percent to 87.49 million tonnes
last year, the Ministry of Finance said in preliminary trade
figures on Monday.

Japan's crude oil imports in 2013 fell 0.6 percent to 3.65
million barrels per day (211.717 million kilolitres), a two-year
low.

Thermal coal imports, used mainly for power generation, also
rose 1.3 percent to a record 109.03 million tonnes last year,
reflecting a rise in coal-fired power plants' capacity.

Japan, the world's top importer of liquefied natural gas
(LNG), paid a record 7.06 trillion yen ($68.98 billion) last
year for LNG, overturning a previous record in 2012.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/ ... 3N20140127

[Apollo]

Japan's energy problems seem to be solved:

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2014 ... shale-oil/

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co.1662.TO -0.45%, or Japex, said this week that it has started commercial production of shale oil in the northern prefecture, the first such case in Japan.

Just wait for the numbers:

It said daily production at the Akita site was about 220 barrels a day.

With 10k of these wells Japan becomes energy independent.

[Plantagenet]

Expecting shale oil to make Japan energy independent is silly. But a few thousand shale oil wells will certainly help reduce FF imports, which probably is a good thing for Japan.

Congrats to Japan on their first shale oil well.


congratulations

[ROCKMAN]

Blogs are fine but tend to be a good bit of hype and not so strong on details. Here are the details from the company itself. A good start IMHO. Now, as P points out, we'll wait and see how their second well turns out when they start it next month. It took them from March 2012 to April 2014 to declare the first well to "full scale commercial production". Which isn't picking on them: this was a demonstration project more than an exploratory effort. Takes time to build that learning curve properly and I'm sure they put a lot of solid thought to the effort.

Now they just need 9,999 more such wells. And what they need to drill every year to replace their decline.

http://www.japex.co.jp/english/newsrele ... gawa_E.pdf

[vox_mundi]

At least they wouldn't need to worry about Fukushima ...

Colossal volcanic eruption could destroy Japan, study says
http://phys.org/news/2014-10-colossal-v ... japan.html

Japan could be nearly destroyed by a massive volcanic eruption over the next century, putting almost all of the country's 127 million-strong population at risk, according to a new study.
http://www.kobe-u.ac.jp/NEWS/info/2014_10_22_01.html

"It is not an overstatement to say that a colossal volcanic eruption would leave Japan extinct as a country," Kobe University earth sciences professor Yoshiyuki Tatsumi and associate professor Keiko Suzuki said in a study publicly released on Wednesday.

The experts said they analysed the scale and frequency of volcanic eruptions in the archipelago nation over the past 120,000 years and calculated that the odds of a devastating eruption at about one percent over the next 100 years. The chance of a major earthquake striking the city of Kobe within 30 years was estimated at about one percent just a day before a 7.2-magnitude quake destroyed the Japanese port city in 1995, killing 6,400 people and injuring nearly 4,400 others, the study noted.

"Therefore, it would be no surprise if such a colossal eruption occurs at any moment," it added.

The new research comes weeks after Japan's Mount Ontake erupted without warning—killing 57 people and leaving at least six others missing in the country's deadliest volcanic eruption in almost 90 years.

The Kobe University researchers said their study was critical because Japan is home to about seven percent of the volcanoes that have erupted over the past 10,000 years.

Study: 1% chance of catastrophic eruption striking Japan in 100 years
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_new ... 1410230039

... In a worst-case scenario, a huge eruption in the Kyushu region would emit pyroclastic flows covering widespread areas of the island and engulf the entire archipelago in ash, according to the team’s estimates announced Oct. 22. A disaster on the southernmost main island of Kyushu, which has been struck by seven massive eruptions over the past 120,000 years, would see an area with seven million people buried by flows of lava and molten rock in just two hours, they said.

If an extremely large-scale eruption took place in the central Kyushu region, pyroclastic flows would inundate a 30,000-square-kilometer area inhabited by 7 million people. Volcanic ash would pile as high as 50 centimeters in regions of western Japan where 40 million people reside, and 20 cm in eastern Japan.

Ashfall of just 1 cm to 2 cm can cripple traffic networks, and ashfall exceeding 30 cm can cause buildings to collapse.

Volcanic ash would also be carried by westerly winds toward the main island of Honshu, making almost all of the country "unliveable" as it strangled infrastructure, including key transport systems, they said.

It would be "hopeless" trying to save about 120 million living in major cities and towns across Honshu, the study said.

[vox_mundi]

It's happened before ...

The study of the Japanese Paleolithic period is characterized by a high level of stratigraphic information due to the volcanic nature of the archipelago: large eruptions tend to cover the islands with levels of ash, which are easily datable and can be found throughout the country as a reference. A very important such layer is the AT (Aira-Tanzawa) pumice, which covered all Japan around 21,000–22,000 years ago.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Paleolithic

20,000 BC Population: <10,000
Current Population: 127,000,000

[Timo]

A colossal volcanic eruption at Yellowstone would destroy 90% of the US, too. It will happen, eventually, but probably not within the next century.

Unless i just jinxed the prediction, and it will blow next week. In which case, so long, and thanks for the memories. Peak oil is no longer a concern for anybody. Have a nice week.

[sparky]

.
On the 70th anniversary of the end of World War 2 , the Japanese prime minister made a much awaited speech.
http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2015 ... statement/

the Asian countries especially China and Korea would have liked some mentions of the fact that Japan was the aggressor
that its troops behaved with extreme brutality with sadism as an approved and encouraged policy against the defenseless
than economic exploitation was used to the level of slavery and starving millions .

well maybe not so far but after 70 years at least recognizing publicly than Japan had been bad , very bad !

instead Mr Abe gave a soft cocked version , saying than since other prime ministers had already mentioned the war ,
there really wasn't any need for him to harp around , anyway it was history and the colonialist were the instigators
He didn't even say that it was Japan who started it .
but harped along on how much the Japanese people had suffered from it

China is very wroth and Korea just as much ,
the speech confirm them in their opinion of Japanese politicians as a a bunch of hypocrites murderers
especially as half a dozen of his ministers went to pay their respects at the Yasukumi shrine for the dead soldiers , including a numbers of the worst war criminals ( those who got caught )

[Cog]

The Japanese people should get down on their knees and give thanks everyday that we left a single one of them alive. No one would have blamed MacArthur and Truman if we had exterminated every single one of them.