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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 4

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 16:12:33

So US conventional oil peaked in the 70's and global conventional oil peaked in 2005 and has been on a plateau since then. The move to produce unconventional was based on the premiss that rising oil prices according to the supply and demand function would make unconventional economically viable. Peak oil theories also predicted rising oil prices. The oil price collapsed first in 2008 and then again in 2014.

A theory can only be proven false ? Obviously the world doesn't always allow it self to be dictated by our theories. Back to the drawing board ? Perhaps there is something wrong with the supply and demand theory and the peak oil theory ?
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 16:15:37

Onlooker, zerohedge articles are Sensationalist. It is best not to get your definitions from sensationalist sources.

Sensationalism is a type of editorial bias in mass media in which events and topics in news stories and pieces are overhyped to present biased impressions on events, which may cause a manipulation to the truth of a story. Sensationalism may include reporting about generally insignificant matters and events that do not influence overall society and biased presentations of newsworthy topics in a trivial or tabloid manner contrary to the standards of professional journalism. Some tactics include being deliberately obtuse, appealing to emotions, being controversial, intentionally omitting facts and information, being loud and self-centered and acting to obtain attention. Trivial information and events are sometimes misrepresented and exaggerated as important or significant.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 16:22:37

You may be right Kub, but I am also wary of official data
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 16:41:20

onlooker wrote:This. Is. Stagflation.


Who. believes. this. shit?
This is the same hype, same words, same thoughts thats been expressed on the same Peak Oil hype forums for the last 13 years. 1,000s of pages all the same. Have you just been saying stagflation to yourself over and over second after second, hour after hour, day after day, year after year, for the last 10 years thinking your having a highbrow discussion?

Nothing has happened in the 13 years since these 'stagflation' discussions have been ubiquitous on these hype and doom forums. Same oil wars, same consumer economy, same everything we've had since WW2.

There have been no serious economic events since the US great depression and WW2. Before that, there were serious economic problems every few years that caused mass poverty and deaths by starving or major wars involving a large fraction of the population.

I guess in another 13 years you'll still be writing stagflation on net forums, oblivious to the world outside the 4 corners of your flatscreen monitor. Move on ffs. And if you are looking for somewhere to start, consider writing something relavent to this thread : oil production ever increasing year on year. That is not stagflation, that is progress.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 16:56:12

Where to begin with your trite analysis. First off nothing has happened in the last 13 years. Excuse me. Depletion of Oil has continued unabated. The Environment has continued to be degraded every year, global warming is showing signs as per the Arctic of going into overdrive, Middle East has been laid to waste etc etc. In your world if you have not starved to death everything is rosy uh. Who is oblivious to the world outside? Do you really want me to cite numbers , like how much the world population grew in the last 13 years, or how much the US debt grew etc. Oh and yes some even have pretty much starved to death in the last 13 years. You my friend a living in a little self made bubble of wishful thinking. Get ready cause your bubble is going to burst sooner rather than later.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 17:33:44

same doomer despondency crap, always has been, always will be. You might as well not exist on this site. Just get an automated script to copy paste from LATOC doomer threads from 2005.

The only thing that happened was that 10,000s of years ago someone realised you could trigger dumb humans into thinking the sky was about to fall, and since then we've had these devout 'doom any minute now' types, who don't have a single thought in their skull outside their religion. Yesterday, it was by word and mouth, today it's on the internet, but its the same.

I was naive to think I could make progress with them when I found sites like this 13 years ago.

They are all rubber toys.

WHACK!
< whacks onlooker with a cricket bat in face >

See? they just carry on, because they are dead inside, not feeling or perceiving reality. They will interact more in the grave, where their corpses will be recycled into the ecology.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby sparky » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 17:48:49

.
@ peakoilwhen , good call ! good call !
whereas there are some who delight in dancing around the bitter tree ,
some others are of a more cheerful disposition .
Still ,I for one don't believe that the golden goose will live forever ,
that's the way of things , and nobody had yet find a way to harness human stupidity as an energy source .
that truly would be progress , either infinite or depleting it
a win on both side
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 18:10:33

Naive, was I to think that the posters and comments on this site could raise awareness to the greater population of the life and death challenges we together as a species are facing. Only to find a stubborn entrenched need to wish all our problems away. Should not be surprised thou, most would like to be fed comforting lies than unpleasant truths
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 18:17:15

I may add that scanning information and reaching the conclusion that the information warrants is neither wallowing in fatalistic or nihilistic daydreams nor does it constitute a pessimistic attitude. Above all I do NOT relish reaching the conclusions I have
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby sparky » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 19:06:03

.
That's about it ,
things are never as bad as one's wish nor as good as one fear
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 19:09:52

sparky wrote:.
That's about it ,
things are never as bad as one's wish nor as good as one fear

uh sparky things are never as bad as one's fear nor as good as one wish ?
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Cog » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 20:17:20

Its sort of a twist on how doomers see the world.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 23:51:11

Cog - The Rockman's great fear is that things won't again be as bad as when matters were so good for the oil patch. LOL. Good vs bad tends to be relative: depends on whether you're the one serving up the sh*t sandwich or the one having to take a big bite of it. LOL.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 00:02:01

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "...the real price of gasoline has returned to early 1970's levels..." Naughty boy...that cherry picking sword cuts both ways: inflation adjusted gasoline price 1981: $3.51/gal. Nominal price Jan 2016: $1.87/gal.


No cherry picking, other than making sure that it is noted, how low real gasoline prices are right now. For those who pretend that a price today is static with respect to its value, oh so long ago.

Rockman wrote:And why? Middle East flare up over oil exports. IOW the POD raised its ugly head. But a global PO in at that time? Obviously not with just 56 million bopd coming out the ground that year. Just one more set of FACTS highlighting that the date of GPO and any such predictions (correct or not) are of little relevance to life as we experience it.

It's all about the POD, baby! Right Yoshua? Hang in there. LOL.


POD and economics, one and the same Rock. And I know you were around during the id-80s crash, same as me, and POD was happily doing its thing then, just as it did during the boom of the late 70's, or the bust during the Asian flu of the late 90's, or the spike in 2008, or the recent crash. POD isn't any different now than it was then, but economists don't really have quite the cool catch phrase of POD, I'll grant you that.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 00:12:18

Yoshua wrote:Ok. Fine, US conventional oil didn't peak in 70's as Hubert said and it didn't peak globally after 2000.


Oil peaked globally in about 1979, and it took nearly 15 years or so to peak again. The US took what, about 45 years to nearly (close enough anyway) repeak again? And Hubbert said plenty about peaks, including calling one for the US by 1950. Remember that claim? Most don't, because peakers don't like to admit that Hubbert played kick the can like most everyone else.

Yoshua wrote:Tar sand and LTO are making everybody rich. Peak oil is phony. It is not even a theory just an observation.


Peak oil is axiomatic, just not the hysterical add-ons so popular in the peak oil world. So no, when something is axiomatic, it isn't about being a theory.

Yoshua wrote:Who needs observations ?


You tell me...I didn't make all those bad ones that led to some of the more wild claims back when YOU say peak oil happened. Here is one...interesting that folks don't even bring up those claims anymore, instead focusing on non-oily stuff like you do. And this isn't just anyone claiming this, but like a peak oil famous person who posted here!

Image

Yoshua wrote:Every oil field just keeps on producing more.


You obviously have never been in charge of producing an oil field.

Yoshua wrote:Low gasoline prices is exactly what the oil producers are dreaming about. Everyone will soon own a monster truck, even the Somalians.


Sounds like a stretch Yoshua. I think the Somalians would prefer something more useful, like maybe sand rails?

Yoshua wrote:
I'm not a peak oil doomer anymore ! I'm healed !


Peak oil isn't about being healed, it is about learning, and understanding why it all went so bad, and curing those gaps in ones knowledge so as to never be that gullible ever again.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 00:14:42

ROCKMAN wrote:Yoshua - "US conventional oil didn't peak in 70's as Hubert..." I assume you're just having fun poking that snake with a stick. After all the DOCUMENTED FACT is still true: US oil production (from all reservoirs conventional or not) peaked over 40 years ago.


But according to some folks, if you are within 4% of the peak, you have a plateau? And guess what? The US came back into plateau range! So...the US reachieved a plateau 45+ years later!! Not that big of a deal, I think Ohio managed to repeak after like nearly a century, according to the Ohio oil and gas folks at last summer's EIA conference.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 03:21:21

A pessimist thinks that things cannot possible get any worse.
An optimist is sure they can.

The financial system has pushed the debt to extreme levels by pushing the interest rate to zero and through money printing. The money has gone to energy and commodity producers who have invested the money in production of uneconomic recourses that will never turn a profit. By doing so they have created a massive bubble that is now deflating.

I don't know how all this will play out, but I'm sure it will interesting. The political scen around the world is getting more and more interesting by the day.

Everyone is of course free to have any opinion about what is taking place to day regarding oil and the economy.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby sparky » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 08:35:43

onlooker wrote:
sparky wrote:.
That's about it ,
things are never as bad as one's wish nor as good as one fear

uh sparky things are never as bad as one's fear nor as good as one wish ?


doh , there was some irony in there did you miss it ?
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 13:12:28

Yoshua wrote:A pessimist thinks that things cannot possible get any worse.
An optimist is sure they can.


I'm not sure that quite covers standard mathusian thinking, but parts of it might be close!

Yoshua wrote:I don't know how all this will play out, but I'm sure it will interesting. The political scen around the world is getting more and more interesting by the day.


Perhaps you weren't around during the days of the Cold War, but I was, and it was far more interesting. So was the Afghan invasion by the USSR, Gulf War I (the mother of all battles!), Ronny shaking up the Med by gunning down Libyan fighters, the Iranian hostage crisis, hell nearly everything nowadays is pretty meager compared to the good old days. Nowadays we have whiners, England whining about the EU, Americans whining about NAFTA and Mexicans, plenty of folks whining about globalization, Japan whining about China, everyone except China whining about North Korea.

Things don't even look like they are headed to war, which was the minimum requirement back when I was younger for interesting politics. Nowadays it is like the Millennial version of things, all half assed and folks without any proper historical perspective for REAL problems.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 13:39:21

Today: War in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya. Al Qaeda and ISIS committing terror acts in the US and EU. A new cold war with Russia. The spooks at NSA have declared war on the chief commander Trump: "He will die in jail!"...

You are just to old and bored ?
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