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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 4

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 07:58:46

I suspect that two types of countries or localities stand the best chance of getting through the bottleneck with somewhat cohesive communities which would be either:
a. Countries/Areas with a favorable population/resources ratio
b. Countries who by virtue of their potent military/economy can leverage the system to best position themselves to withstand the destructive nature of the contracting forces.
I think not too many countries fit both those categories
Off hand though I think the Western Hemisphere is better situated than the Eastern one. In particular the US, Russia and Canada
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 12:19:20

I have had the notion that Russia might last the longest. A nation that already experienced a collapse. A people used to hard times that have accepted a dictatorship for stability and security. With oil, gas and coal reserves enough to keep a not to complex society functioning.

Europe on the other hand is the exact opposite to Russia. A extremely complex political and economic structure with hardly no energy resources'. A population soft and spoiled to the core that live in a ideological phantasy world.

I'm glad to be a European. I will have the honor to witness total madness when the EU collapses.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 16:18:14

rockdoc123 wrote:
PROGRESS!
So now LPGs can be made in the mantle huh? If the high priest of biotic oil David Middleton admits that, it must be true. We are more than half of the way to abiotic oil. You say its extremely hard to reverse the process of cracking between LPGs and methane. And I believe you. Tell us, compared to c1 to c2-5, is it harder or easier, or about the same to convert LPGs to slightly longer carbons chain rings and trees? hehehe!


listen you frigging moron.....nothing in the lab has been created other than methane and very miniscule amounts of ethane and a very tiny trace of propane. This is not oil you dolt. The energy and heat to do just that is beyond ridiculous and there is no way to get beyond it to the higher ends....hasn't been done even theoretically (see the work done by the USGS). Not only that if by some magic you created it...it is immediately dissaccotiated due to the high heat and cannot be put back together. You have been told this numerous times. How frigging slow are you?


>nothing
but then
>methane and very miniscule amounts of ethane and a very tiny trace of propane

that's a desperate excuse to dismiss abiotic theory. You know Goncharov's experiment wasn't to mass produce c2-4 from c1, but just to show it was possible. The quantity is not an issue. And btw, methane wasn't created in Goncharov's experiment, it was a part of the setup. If you take your pills and calm down you might be able to distinguish input from output substances.

> The energy and heat to do just that is beyond ridiculous

Not only has it been done in the lab, the mantle can create graphite and diamond. Also kerogen is carbon chemicals that have stripped of hydrogen, oxygen, ( and other elements used by life if we are using biotic theory ) by ' beyond ridiculous ' energies and pressures. What are you trying to suggest? That kerogen can't be stripped of its non-carbon atoms by natural processes because the energy and pressure is ' beyond ridiculous '. What did it then? You? Are you part of a conspiracy of biotic geologists that are forging lumps of kerogen and then burying them deep in the crust when no one is looking?

You are the only thing that is ridiculous here. Calm down and start making sense man.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 17:54:33

Also kerogen is carbon chemicals that have stripped of hydrogen, oxygen, ( and other elements used by life if we are using biotic theory ) by ' beyond ridiculous ' energies and pressures

Look you tool, read what was written even though it appears most of it is well beyond your understanding. Kerogen cannot exist in the mantle. Kerogen is the term given to the insoluable fraction of organic matter in sedimentary rocks which is formed from diageneis of various organics such as vitrinite, wood, plant material, pollen and algae. It has not been subjected to high temperatures and pressures as it would have converted already. Kerogen is the precursor to both coal and hydrocarbons. It is time and temperature that converts kerogen to hydrocarbon but at some point (either high enough temperature or long enough burial) all of the kerogen is converted. This is called the transformation ratio of a kerogen and in most cases 100% transformation ratio (all of the kerogen converted) is reached by depths of 4 to 5 km in a continental basin setting. That means kerogens never make it to depths of even the lower crust let alone the mantle. Suggesting otherwise dispels all sorts of physical laws, which apparently you never learned at your boxtop physics school. Also get yourself a proper dictionary before you spout off about terms you don't understand.

And trying to suggest that kerogen in the shallow crust is somehow converted by methane gas from deep sources is basically stupid given 1. Heat is required to convert it and 2. Kerogen is present almost exclusively in very tight (nanodarcy) source rock shales and marls, gas cannot penetrate into the pore space as there is no pathway.
And if you are trying to convert kerogen then I’m afraid you are talking about a biogenic origin as kerogen is only formed from organic precursors. You really need to pull your head out of your backside

also graphite is not formed from kerogen it is formed by the metamorphism of carbon rich precursors that have already been subjected to considerable catagenesis such as coal or in some cases carbonate or marble. It cannot occur in the mantle because again it would all melt…it is formed by high pressure and temperatures in the crust and not in the mantle. Diamonds are formed in the mantle but not from organic compounds but rather from the melting of subducted slabs which contain carbonates and marbles, these are the most prevalent occurrence of diamonds which were brought to near surface in igneous intrusions which leave behind kimberlite pipes. Both of these minerals contain nothing but carbon so it does little to prove anything about your theory given there is no reaction taking place that includes oxygen and hydrogen.

So once again you keep spouting off nonsense that flies in the face of basic scientific knowledge. And it needs to be pointed out once again that you need to get some proper education including some basic scientific literacy. For some reason you have no problem looking like a fool time and time again.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 00:08:00

peakoilwhen wrote:
AdamB wrote:So far, no sign of oil at all, economic or otherwise. In part because...as has been pointed out to you...<snicker snicker>...at those temperatures oil gets turned into thermogenic gas...for starters. You know...just like it does everywhere else in the world.....duh.


Well did your oil friend find any gas in the holes he drilled?


He wasn't a friend, he was being interviewed for a drilling position doing Utica wells. And no, his stories were specific to the wild problems associated with HTHP, and steam.

I searched for any indication of methane in the listed drilling results in Hawaii, and found none. That isn't definitive, but what is definitive is that no is finding long chain hydrocarbons in lava.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 00:15:02

Yoshua wrote:We are experiencing peak oil dynamics today.

Conventional oil peaked in 2005 and reached a plateau.


Please explain this random distinction of conventional versus other oil that somehow negates the millions of additional barrels per day of new production that you, and I, and everyone else on this forum uses in their autos and whatnot.

Yoshua wrote:The financial crisis of 2008. The euro crisis of 2011. The extreme credit/debt expansion in China. The central banks QE programs. Trillions of dollars and euros have been printed by central banks. Asset bubbles have been created. The oil industries move into production of unconventional oil. Falling net energy and the collapse of the oil price in 2014. The peak in all liquids in 2015 which now also is on a plateau. The implosion of weaker economies around the world. The collapse of currencies against the petrodollar.

We are living peak oil dynamics today.


And when the same thing was claimed for a decade ago. And oil production went up. And the world didn't end. You are aware of common predictions of what peak WAS supposed to look like, right? It was about the draft, fedghettos, death and starvation. All you've list is stuff no different than the 1970's, before the global peak oil of 1979 no less. And collapses in price weren't part of the equation, that was added after peak oil didn't happen, and new supply outpaced demand. Idiot political leadership is the leading cause for the non-oil related symptoms you appear fascinated with, not peak oil a decade ago that didn't exist, unless someone makes up special classes of oil to pretend just that special stuff peaked. And the consumer goes right on consuming, because that distinction is irrelevant.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 00:26:35

onlooker wrote:Yes and I would add :
We're in stagflation now. And have been for over 2 years.


Stagflation.

What is 'Stagflation'
A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment – economic stagnation – accompanied by rising prices, or inflation, or inflation and a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Economic growth since the end of the last recession has been slow, but it has been growth over a much longer period of time than is normal between recessions. And unemployment has been getting better, and is not high. Prices have been rising in some areas, but inflation isn't bad at all, and no, GDP is not declining.

So no, we haven't been in stagflation the last 2 years.

onlooker wrote:And without the debt exponentially rising we would have seen hyperinflation a long time ago.


Coulda woulda shoulda. People have been claiming deflation is right around the corner ever since their claimed peak oil date of 2008 (these would be the likes of Stoneleigh). They have been waiting nearly a decade now. Turns out that oil-amateurs aren't so great as pretend economists either I guess.

onlooker wrote:Everything is hidden behind smokescreens and curtains these days. Everything is manipulated. It's hard to tell where we stand at any given time, but it's quite easy to see the overall trendline.


Indeed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-globa ... SKBN15V026
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 00:39:51

Yoshua wrote:It is almost strange that we still discuss when peak oil comes since we are living peak oil.


Well, then good thing we can see what peak oil meant back when it happened..and what that means now.

Image

And a natural consequence of the horrors of peak oil induced lower prices....is we can still buy plenty of these!!! And afford to drive them!

Image


Yoshua wrote:I just wonder if we will be able to create a financial system and an economy that can survive a contracting economy ?


We did during the last dozen or more recessions here in the US, no reason to suspect we have forgotten how.

Yoshua wrote:I still wonder if it would be possible to land the economy gently without causing a total collapse.


We did after 2005 peak oil, and still are. According to "peak oil in 2005" advocates anyway. Remember when peak oil in 2008 caused the 2008 recession? Supposedly? And that was supposed to be a total collapse? Plus the draft was going to be reconstituted! Turns out, it didn't happen. I wouldn't sweat it considering that peak oil gave us low prices and some pretty nice monster trucks to drive on the highway!

Yoshua wrote:
The problem would just be that 7.4 billion would not survive this contraction. And the oil production and the net energy would continue to fall until they reach zero at some point.


Fortunate indeed that UNLIKE what was claimed for peak oil a decade ago, peak oil itself didn't stop the current ongoing transition. I recommend joining us already striding confidently away from our oil consumption habits, be an early adopter, not a Yoshua come lately!
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 00:47:12

ROCKMAN wrote:Y - "...since we are living peak oil." Exactly: dealing every day with the Peal Oil Dynamic...the POD.


...just like we did in the late 1970's....and then after that....the flipside in 1986. Those were the days though, just waiting for POD to grab us by the short hairs in 1986...

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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 03:26:30

Peak oil theories can give some guiding to how things will evolve. Living with peak oil is a different thing. We learn as we go along. The financial system has changed since the financial crisis. The economies will be forced to adjust to a new reality.

One thing is sure though: We are living with peak oil today.

The difference between conventional and unconventional oil is the net energy received.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 03:32:16

There is a difference between living in petrodollar land and Mexico or Venezuela ?
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 12:23:21

Yoshua wrote:Peak oil theories can give some guiding to how things will evolve.


Can you please elaborate on how peak oil theories declaring the peak in US oil production circa 1919 provided any guiding on much beyond starting the clock on discrediting peak oil theories?

Yoshua wrote: Living with peak oil is a different thing. We learn as we go along. The financial system has changed since the financial crisis. The economies will be forced to adjust to a new reality.


Good thing you claim peak oil happened a decade ago then, because we have apparently adapted to the point where the real price of gasoline has returned to early 1970's levels, and fueling up big pick-me-up trucks is a normal American activity across suburbia no less, they are now toys, as well as working vehicles in rural america.

Yoshua wrote:One thing is sure though: We are living with peak oil today.


As best I can tell there is only one response from the average consumer, if indeed we are living our post peak consequences.

Image

Yoshua wrote:The difference between conventional and unconventional oil is the net energy received.


So your measure of conventionality has nothing to do with oil. I suspected as much.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 12:26:44

Yoshua wrote:There is a difference between living in petrodollar land and Mexico or Venezuela ?


Mexico and more particularly Venezuela are petro-dollar land, the US has a far more diversified economy. What has happened in the countries of the world with oil, but no political leadership worth spit, has been referred to as "the resource curse". One trick pony economies basically. Fortunately, others do better, China and Norway, the US, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iran might be working its way to this position after years of sanctions.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 13:41:46

rockdoc123 wrote: Kerogen is the precursor to both coal and hydrocarbons. It is time and temperature that converts kerogen to hydrocarbon but at some point (either high enough temperature or long enough burial) all of the kerogen is converted. This is called the transformation ratio of a kerogen and in most cases 100% transformation ratio (all of the kerogen converted) is reached by depths of 4 to 5 km in a continental basin setting.


And how does kerogen convert to oil exactly? Kerogen is about 1:1 hydrogen to carbon. I've been fishing you with my 3:1 ratio need for hydrocarbon conversion claim, but you won't bite, and I know why.
1st, the truth is oil hydrocarbons need only slightly over 2:1 hydrogen to carbon, not 3:1 which is only for ethane.
Usually you would fall over yourself to tell me I'm an idiot for claiming 3:1 H:C when oil only needs slightly over 2:1, but instead you are silent on the matter, despite repeated fishings by me.
The reason you are silent is because its sacrilege for the followers of the biotic oil religion to mention or think about the lack of hydrogen in kerogen compared to oil. During your brainwashing \ training you learnt to ignore it, either consciously or unconsciously, otherwise you'd never have passed your exams that tested if you were sufficiently brainwashed to do the bidding of the oil cartel. Hence your feverish opposition to anyone who come poking for the truth, like me.


That means kerogens never make it to depths of even the lower crust let alone the mantle. Suggesting otherwise dispels all sorts of physical laws, which apparently you never learned at your boxtop physics school.


You're mixing biotic theory with abiotic theory with the intention of arriving at inconsistency so you can call your opponent an idiot. That not's the right way to assess an alternative theory.

If you ask me, kerogen doesn't start at the top and go down, it more likely forms somewhere in the crust and goes up. Quite how it does this I'm not sure, but I'm considering several possibilities.

Here's one way you might find more agreeable :
methane rises from the mantle and gets trapped in and around a tight strata, forming a gas reserve.
deep crust methanotrophs break down the gas to form kerogen. Later the strata is fragmented due to geology, where it is exposed to upwelling hydrogen gas which transforms the kerogen into crude oil.
The methanotrophs may be incidental feeders, i.e. simply the internal pressure of a tight formation alone may be enough to condense upwelling methane into kerogen.

I know you like biology making oil so I gave methanotrophs a key role to try cheer you up. :)

Wrt internal pressure being a factor that allows an otherwise unreactive substance to condense or react, this is something in all your rambling you haven't mentioned, perhaps they didn't teach you this during your brainwashing. If you want I'll teach you.

2. Kerogen is present almost exclusively in very tight (nanodarcy) source rock shales and marls, gas cannot penetrate into the pore space as there is no pathway.


Actually gas does penetrate, just very slowly, but given geologic time, the tight formation will become saturated with many of the fluids that it is in contact with. This is part of how a tight formation may condense hydrocarbons to longer chains, tight formations can hold a large pressure difference at their boundary with a loose formation ; a great increase in pressure may allow mantle level pressures, but at crustal temperatures.

So there's 2 theories of abiogenic oil formation from methane
1. methanotrophic
2. pressure induced

pick your favourite and we can discuss it further.

and don't forget hydration by upwelling mantle hydrogen gas. You need it for your conventional biootic theory too, so just accept it.

The point of mentioning graphite and diamond is to show that the Earth will bind carbon with carbon given a chance. Help me out with your geo-chemist skills : what is the lower energy state for a load of hydrogen, carbon and oxygen: a load of extremely compressed methane and oxygen, or oil with a bit of water residue? Nature will tend towards the lower energy state by biology or chemistry.

Given that we are onto the 8th page and you still haven't answered the question I asked you in my 1st post, my expectations are low that you can give direct answers. But you occasionally surprise me.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 13:53:02

Adam - "...the real price of gasoline has returned to early 1970's levels..." Naughty boy...that cherry picking sword cuts both ways: inflation adjusted gasoline price 1981: $3.51/gal. Nominal price Jan 2016: $1.87/gal.

And why? Middle East flare up over oil exports. IOW the POD raised its ugly head. But a global PO at that time? Obviously not with just 56 million bopd coming out the ground that year. Just one more set of FACTS highlighting that the date of GPO (anAdam - "...the real price of gasoline has returned to early 1970's levels..." Naughty boy...that cherry picking sword cuts both ways: inflation adjusted gasoline price 1981: $3.51/gal. Nominal price Jan 2016: $1.87/gal.

And why? Middle East flare up over oil exports. IOW the POD raised its ugly head. But a global PO in at that time? Obviously not with just 56 million bopd coming out the ground that year. Just one more set of FACTS highlighting that the date of GPO and any such predictions (correct or not) are of little relevance to life as we experience it.

It's all about the POD, baby! Right Yoshua? Hang in there. LOL.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 14:50:46

Ok. Fine, US conventional oil didn't peak in 70's as Hubert said and it didn't peak globally after 2000. Tar sand and LTO are making everybody rich. Peak oil is phony. It is not even a theory just an observation. Who needs observations ? Every oil field just keeps on producing more. Low gasoline prices is exactly what the oil producers are dreaming about. Everyone will soon own a monster truck, even the Somalians.

I'm not a peak oil doomer anymore ! I'm healed !
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 15:16:02

Yoshua - "US conventional oil didn't peak in 70's as Hubert..." I assume you're just having fun poking that snake with a stick. After all the DOCUMENTED FACT is still true: US oil production (from all reservoirs conventional or not) peaked over 40 years ago.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 15:32:08

AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yes and I would add :
We're in stagflation now. And have been for over 2 years.


Stagflation.

What is 'Stagflation'
A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment – economic stagnation – accompanied by rising prices, or inflation, or inflation and a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Economic growth since the end of the last recession has been slow, but it has been growth over a much longer period of time than is normal between recessions. And unemployment has been getting better, and is not high. Prices have been rising in some areas, but inflation isn't bad at all, and no, GDP is not declining.

So no, we haven't been in stagflation the last 2 years.
+1
The world is wrestling with low inflation and even deflation. That is not stagflation:

In economics, stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high.
Stagflation

Inflation has declined markedly in many economies over the past few years. This chapter finds that disinflation is broad based across countries, measures, and sectors—albeit larger for tradable goods than for services. The main drivers of recent disinflation are persistent economic slack and softening commodity prices. Most of the available measures of medium-term inflation expectations have not declined substantially so far. However, the sensitivity of expectations to inflation surprises—an indicator of the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations—has increased in countries where policy rates have approached their effective lower bounds. While the magnitude of this change in sensitivity is modest, it does suggest that the perceived ability of monetary policy to combat persistent disinflation may be diminishing in these economies.

Inflation rates in many economies have steadily declined toward historically low levels in recent years (Figure 3.1). By 2015, inflation rates in more than 85 percent of a broad sample of more than 120 economies were below long-term expectations, and about 20 percent were in deflation—that is, facing a fall in the aggregate price level for goods and services.
GLOBAL DISINFLATION IN AN ERA OF CONSTRAINED MONETARY POLICY
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 15:57:06

[quote][Scratch that, this was worse than recession; this was a recession with inflation or stagflation.

Yesterday, the Chicago PMI scored a reading of 50.3.

A 50= stagnation or the beginning of a recession.

PMI in of itself is bad news. But the new orders component (the component that shows growth) came in at 49.1.

This is WELL into recession territory.

Now let’s add the worst part… Price Paid (what manufacturers are having to pay for items) SOARED to 61.4.

So you’ve got growth collapsing… and prices soaring.

This. Is. Stagflation.

Those who are ignoring these warning signs are walking into a market bloodbath. Stocks are acting like an economic renaissance has just started… but the REAL data is showing us a recession and even worse, a recession coupled with higher inflation.

Indeed, 2016 GDP growth was the worst since 2011… while inflation expectations have shot higher. Looking at a chart of the two, it’s easy to see which direction each is heading./quote]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-0 ... tagflation
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