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PeakOil is You

THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 4

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 02:51:03

Anyway, I sense you're used up and worn out. So I'll leave you in peace, b4 u have breakdown. I will take to fight somewhere else.

But thks for the useful info, you have taught me a few things.

Now lets see what I have to do to get banned.
Does this work? This account is a sock puppet of course, I've been banned twice from here already.

btw, of course I'm a truther.
btw 2 I think it's funny rocky believes the 2003 iraq war was to stop saddam and his weapons of mass destruction.

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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 06:00:18

The supply & demand funktion can be pushed to a higher level with the issuing of credit/debt. As the return of investments fall due to more expensive recourses to extract and falling net energy delivered to the economy, the interest rate must fall until it reaches zero.

The oil producers have gone from conventional oil to tar sand and the interest rate has fallen to zero.

We are at peak oil today.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 07:41:26

I was reviewing the last couple pages of this thread and it's apparent that peakoilwhen needs to take some college organic chemistry and physical chemistry classes.

It's obvious he doesn't know what he's talking about...
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 11:31:16

Oiler - The question is who's more responsible for the space wasted here: peakoilwhen or the folks that continued to argue with him? Of course I was joking about believing all oil was abiotic...which some actually thought I did think. LOL. Once that debate could be ignored by accepting all oil was abiotic we could focus on the real problem: where can we find more oil...biotic or abiotic?

It was like watching folks arguing whether Elvis was alive or not. Same situation: instead of an endless debate over data that did or didn't support the theory just go find his fat old ass. That would end the discussion one way or the other. LOL.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 12:37:15

Hmm? I'm still here I see.

Here's a little summary of RockDoc fails in this thread :

Comment or revision of his 2013-15 peak oil prediction when prompted : IGNORED
Explanation of how Kerogen gets Hydrated : IGNORED
Explanation of how the mantle methane synthesis fails for higher Cx : IGNORED
Acknowledgement that higher Cx from C1 has been synthesised in lab : IGNORED
Acknowledgement that dark fluid that looks like oil has been found on Mars : IGNORED
Acknowledgement that Titan has Hydrocarbon seas : IGNORED

He's beat me on a few things, including a soft ball or 2 I throw for him to keep his morale up. But on these most important points, he breaks into tantrums and insults.

Here's mee arguing with him back in 2012, when he was asking me where the next load of oil was coming from to prevent a peak in 2013-2015. Since all I knew at the time was that oil reserves are keep secret - by training oil prospectors wrong theory, not enough cash, telling them to look in the wrong places etc, I couldn't say for sure, but I knew the oil was there, so all I could say was ' look harder in the same places you've already looked '. Now I've accepted the reality of abiotic oil, I know its just bloody everywhere, slowly coming up from the mantle. That's why Reserve Growth Rulz, that why the oldest wells still produce a small amount. It can't be exhausted, and I think we can get to at least 200 Mb per day before we have to think about a geological peak.

I'm always impressed by myself, how well I hold myself against pro's like rockdoc, while they crack into rage and insults etc.

post1127026.html?hilit=2013%202015#p1127026

the last few years have shown I was right back then, and I'll come back and see how rocky is coping with another 3-4 years of fails and poke I'll him with the vindication of my recent assertions.

- There will be no oil peak in the next few years
- Abiotic theory is the correct theory.
- The expanding Earth theory is the correct geological theory.

The oil bosses want to keep the ' omg oil is a depleting finite fossil fuel ' meme going for as long as possible. So they will simply fund more expensive oil projects that adhere to biotic oil theory. And there's plenty of them, fek its 2017 and not a single $200 per barrel project is running yet. We haven't even started.
But with every demand for another 1 million barrel per time, the oil industry has to move to oil fields that don't fit as perfectly with biotic oil theory as yesterdays field did. ( que rocky saying oh there was a igneous rock producing oil 40 years ago, yeah sure, but in the future there will be more of them ) So the mindsets of oil prospectors will warm to abiotic theory, gradually. This will take decades, but the shift is already happening.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 13:07:20

Oiler - The question is who's more responsible for the space wasted here: peakoilwhen or the folks that continued to argue with him? Of course I was joking about believing all oil was abiotic...which some actually thought I did think. LOL. Once that debate could be ignored by accepting all oil was abiotic we could focus on the real problem: where can we find more oil...biotic or abiotic?


As I mentioned above you are missing the point. In your world you simply look for a trap on seismic and drill it with a fairly good chance of success. Why is that? Simply because the other elements of the petroleum systems equation have been already satisfied. There are enough surrounding wells in your world that several of the key variables in the equation are not an issue. I was involved in global exploration for more than half of my career and when we looked at bid rounds, farm ins, new wells etc every last project was subjected to a risking analysis that included risk for: source & migration, trap, seal, reservoir. In a very mature basin such as the US the equation ends up being simplified considerably because source & migration & seal have almost zero risk as proven by surrounding wells and reservoir and trap are diminished to the risk for preservation of either. That isn't the case in the rest of the world where all of the parts of the equation come into play. So we regularly would look at evidence for a workable source rock, what was the kerogen type, what was the time temperature history what was the timing of maturation and expulsion and hence migration and then how that fit in the timing of trap formation. There were many places we declined to participate in projects because we felt the risk for an active source rock was too high and we were right. The only case I can remember where we were wrong on that issue was in the relatively shallow rifts of Kenya and Uganda where our basin modeling suggested the source rocks, which we knew to be there, would not have reached maturity for long enough to have generated substantive hydrocarbons. The reason we were wrong was incorporation of an incorrect heat flow history (some parts of the rift have extremely high heat flow and apparently have been in that situation for much longer than originally thought). When the corrected heat flow history was used in the model the source story matched the outcome.

Going forward unless you believe all of the oil left to be found in the world exists in North American shales or for that matter shales in other parts of the world understanding the source accumulation , maturation and migration story will still be key. If you take the tact that abiotic oil could work theoretically you would drill every trap recognized on seismic. Many, many companies have gone under due to too many dry holes and in a world of limited capital resources and marginal returns one can't afford to just drill and hope for the best. Understanding the source and migration story is crucial outside of the US and a few other very mature basins around the world.

This is also why I said that the one thing driving success of late is also one of the best proofs for an organic origin for oil....shales. The source and migration part of the equation in shales has a chance of success in the petroleum systems equation of 100%. And reservoir and trap and seal are also very high. This is one of the reasons it is so attractive, low risk for finding and all of the risk is in the development and economics considerations. Because the shales have permeabilities in the nano darcy range there is no way that hydrocarbons could have leaked in other than along fractures which would in itself preclude ubiquitous oil saturation in the matrix (which is the case). In shales the source, reservoir, seal and trap are the same thing. The shales mature and form hydrocarbons that are trapped in small pore space and if there is no means of egress to a reservoir or pressure isn't high enough to create that pathway then the oil/gas is formed in-situ.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 14:47:20

ROCKMAN wrote:. Once that debate could be ignored by accepting all oil was abiotic we could focus on the real problem: where can we find more oil...biotic or abiotic?


Well you will piss off the top oil bosses but I'll tell you where to look for the next great oil reserves :

Look for the formations that are most similar to existing good producing oil fields, except that they don't have any sediment layers of the right geologic age. This strategy uses all the knowledge and success of oil prospecting of the 20th century, but it discards an artefact that was holding it back : trying to ID a sediment source rock.

You are looking for :
- A fractured basement rock that is in a wider area of unfractured basement rock. In these conditions the oil produced from the mantle in a wide area will flow & concentrate to this fractured rock.
- The area of basement rock at the top of an slight incline, because oil flows upwards, an incline will concentrate oil.
- fractured basement rock with any kind of cap rock, where the base rock is uplifted past a few higher stratas.
- trap formations without any sediment source rock.

If you can find these criteria on your maps, you will have a better strategy than all your competitors , but you will piss off the top oil bosses. Also everyone will tell you its a risky strategy and won't invest in your company. You'd have to do it out your own pocket.
But the whole world needs resurveying for these fields, so you've got a lot of potential in your inventory that your competitors don't.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Synapsid » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 16:46:18

peakoilwhen,

Rock can't look like that unless it has a high carbon content or is made of some unusual mineral...

Well, no. The photo is of a pahoehoe flow and the composition is basaltic. Google "composition of hot spot basalts" and you can read just which minerals are present and in what percent, and you can look up the composition of each mineral. If you look at a thin section of a basalt you can see the intergrown crystals of those minerals that make up the rock, every one of them identifiable.

Basalt is the commonest rock on the surface of the planet; we know a great deal about it. We even know how a basaltic magma forms. You can look it all up; it's just petrology and chemistry.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby sparky » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 17:02:15

.
@ yoshua , You raise an interesting point , can one talk of "price"
if one can pay with IOU payable next generation ,

if one could , I would be living in a castle indulging in a decadent lifestyle
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 17:45:39

At some point issuing more credit/debt will have no effect. At peak oil real economic growth falls to zero, interest rates then also falls to zero. Issuing more debt/credit after that will only lead to asset bubbles. As the real economy starts to contract and deflation sets in with falling prices, eroding the value of the assets, then at some point we will have a Minsky moment when the asset prices collapse. This will lead to a financial collapse when the $220T global debt tied to the assets implodes and takes down the financial system and the global economy.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 17:53:41

Agree with everything you just said Yoshua. I would only add that as asset prices begin their rapid descent as price discovery ensues, people will be in the meantime trying to cash out their assets, even if for pennies on the dollar. This will greatly increase liquidity in the Economy which in turn will cause inflation of prices especially commodity prices. So we will have as forecast by some Stagflation. A depressed Economy with worthless currency and high prices. The worse of both worlds. That is how the Collapse of Industrial Civilization will proceed.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 18:31:32

Onlooker

I guess your description fits the situation in Venezuela and other nations who have already started to implode. Their currencies collapse in value, followed by high inflation with rising food and energy prices in relation to the collapsed value of their currencies while the economy sinks into depression.

So far this event has reached weaker economies in the world: Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, Ukraine...
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 18:42:18

@Synapsid

Yes, you're right. The mineral in the photo seems to be something like hornblende. Rockdoc pointed me straight there b4 he freaked out. Although to be fair on the freaking out : I'd freak out too if someone who knew nothing about my area of expertise came and destroyed me. I've been flaunting that I'm a geo noob in his face while at the same time destroying the bedrock of his beliefs. An experience like that can leave a man traumatised for a while, so I don't think badly of him for it. ^^
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 19:01:31

Cog wrote:If abiotic theory had any validity, there should be oil wells all over Hawaii and Japan.


According to this new version, instead of letting all that magma in Hawaii run into the ocean, folks should just be scooping it up, wringing it out into barrels, and becoming the new Saudi Arabia of the Pacific!!
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 19:05:58

AdamB wrote:
Cog wrote:If abiotic theory had any validity, there should be oil wells all over Hawaii and Japan.


According to this new version, instead of letting all that magma in Hawaii run into the ocean, folks should just be scooping it up, wringing it out into barrels, and becoming the new Saudi Arabia of the Pacific!!

Glad you guys concede that at least this optimistic scenario will not pan out. Oh Cog just curious if you are now short or long on oil? :)
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 19:10:40

Yoshua wrote:The oil producers have gone from conventional oil to tar sand and the interest rate has fallen to zero.

We are at peak oil today.


Not according to pstarr. He said we were at peak oil in 2005. And then produced a chart showing it was in 2011. Or 2015. I know, he is confused, but of course we are at peak oil today, rather than back then. That is what all time highs in oil prodution do year over year, as supply is growing. And so we will have successive peak oils until supply or demand moderates, and then perhaps another round of peak oil fear meme stuff (mostly depending on the price at the time) and so on and so forth. This was happening before you were alive, so it isn't a surprise that the same mechanisms are still functioning today.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 19:16:59

Yoshua wrote:At some point issuing more credit/debt will have no effect. At peak oil real economic growth falls to zero, interest rates then also falls to zero.


Please reference Hubbert's work, the earlier the better (he had begun playing kick the can by 1956, so you get extra points for finding something of that vintage or earlier) where he discussed peak oil as anything other than a decreasing oil rate with respect to time.

Modern peak oilers began inventing excuses and different versions of peak oil at about the time the peak in 2005 didn't look so much like a peak as a plateau. Then the net energy bunny, undulating plateau theory, credit, costs, every other boogeyman they could invent or spell came out of the woodwork.

And then oil production went up some more anyway.

But please, don't let me stop you, every new one of these things is just another past reference point in 5 years when I have to explain to the next generations of peakers why those ideas didn't matter "back in the ol' days" either.

yoshua wrote: This will lead to a financial collapse when the $220T global debt tied to the assets implodes and takes down the financial system and the global economy.


Yes. We know that peak oil was supposed to lead to collapse. That is what they said last time as well. And all we got in the US was a recession, and then a WONDERFUL equities buying opportunity. And lower oil prices.

Better luck next faux-peak perhaps?
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 19:18:02

drilling in Hawaii would be a good public display for the abiotic theory, there really shouldn't be any oil there according to conventional theory.
But I think the pro-biotic gang would find a sack of ad-hoc excuses for why oil should be found, once it had been found in Hawaii. They have no shame, biotic theory has no test, and cannot be falsified according to them. That this renders it an unscientific theory doesn't matter, for believers of a religion, it MUST be true.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 19:50:57

peakoilwhen wrote:drilling in Hawaii would be a good public display for the abiotic theory, there really shouldn't be any oil there according to conventional theory.
But I think the pro-biotic gang would find a sack of ad-hoc excuses for why oil should be found, once it had been found in Hawaii. They have no shame, biotic theory has no test, and cannot be falsified according to them. That this renders it an unscientific theory doesn't matter, for believers of a religion, it MUST be true.


Great, start a kickstarter campaign for Abiotic oil and raise $20,000,000 or so to pay for the project. You can even sell the oil after you prove your theory.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 20:02:24

its not my theory. Abiotic theory predates biotic theory, the latter was coined in the late 19th century by rockefeller as a way to make oil seem inherently scare and pushed on the geology community. If u refused to believe it, u wouldn't pass your exams, and wouldn't graduate into a rockdoc.

with the entire western funding for oil drilling being scarce, you've just stated why no one will drill in Hawaii. Its doubtful there is economic oil there, the sort that blasts itself 50ft and 5b/sec into the sky.
But for a demo of abiotic oil, its good though.
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