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PeakOil is You

THE Hybrid Transportation Thread pt 2(merged)

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby skyemoor » Sun 25 May 2008, 21:26:52

Twilly wrote:So your part of the problem??? Why buy a Toyota? The American economy is failing and you want to buy a Japanese car? All the profits from that car go to Japan? Why not a Ford or Chevy Hybrid? Do you know 1 out of 5 jobs in the US have something to do with the Auto industry? Does yours? How about your neighbors?

Support American companies today or you wont have a job to buy gas for that car tomorrow...


Twilly,

Name an American-built car with the room and fuel economy of a Prius.

None? No. Want to know why? When higher fuel efficiency standards are proposed, the Japanese hire engineers and designers. The Big 3, on the other hand, hire lobbyists and lawyers.

I used to be all for buying American cars, until they chose to abandon any semblance of sensibility, choosing to focus on next quarter's profits, instead of long term strategy and survivability.

Up until very recently, the push continued to be, "sell more SUVs, that's our big profit margin". They admitted to over-promoting their SUVs/pickups. What truly fuel efficient models does the Big 3 make in the US?

So why should we buy gashogs the Big 3 are trying to shove down our throats? If they were pro-American, they would have implemented fuel efficient hybrids (please don't try to bring up their SUVs and gashog pickup hybrids) and other gas-light cars.

That hasn't been the case, and they are desperate to play catch up. When they do catch up, I'll be willing to listen, but by that time, I'll likely be in an
Aptera, VentureOne, Loremo, the Volkwagen 1-liter, or similar vehicle. What does Detroit have to compete with this besides the $48,000 Volt?

Are you employed by a firm that has business with the Big 3 in any way? (answer truthfully)
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 25 May 2008, 23:33:14

horsestoaster wrote:Why has no one thought to make their own EV?


Plenty of people have. Until they realize how expensive batteries are and they do the math on cost per mile and realize they aren't really getting that far ahead economically. Then they back down and either alter their lifestyle in other ways or play a waiting game over lithium. That might change if gas prices double or lithium keeps coming down.
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby Mesuge » Mon 26 May 2008, 05:35:41

You want the "all american" car technology?

Well once upon a time, there was a bunch of top american engineers and american car company with a vision and product (GM Impact/later EV1) being almost a decade in front of their competitors. In the meantime, the prevailing faction in the management with oil lobbies incl. the federal gov under bushevics completely destroyed the project. Now, the US car companies have to license full hybrids from asia, and they can come up with own technology only in the less advanced mild hybrids..

Had the GM Impact/EV1 sport coupe have a chance, not only there would be by now 4passanger plugin variants which were in the pipeline in advanced stage in the 1990s but certainly also some cheaper ~$25k offshoots from this technology.

I'm not claiming the EV is an asnwer to EVrything including this PO upon us, but the US screwed itself. Now if you are smart go and by japanese or european!

PS and lead acid has proven record to work reliably in high voltage EVs.. The question is where is the price sweat spot, with $4 gallon you are approaching that zone..
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby lowem » Mon 26 May 2008, 07:09:29

I'm seriously considering switching from a Civic (conventional) to a Civic (hybrid) myself. Seeing how crazy Singapore car prices are (Civic hybrid list price : SGD $79K, USD $58K), it's a crazy decision to make.

Just 2 things to explain this crazy decision that I *might* be making :

a. In order to try to beat ongoing price inflation (CPI at 7.5%, a 26-year high and looks like it's going higher), often we Singapore folks have to resort to switching jobs - which often means in our case, having to commute longer distances - but don't worry, no ultra commuting here, Singapore is just 40 km (25 miles) from end to end.

b. Both as a peakoiler and as a resource investor, I believe that oil prices are going higher towards $150, $200, and beyond. Switching to a hybrid right now instead of waiting could actually make sense very quickly, and faster than most people might expect. Same way crude oil prices have gone up faster than most people have expected - including many of the peakoilers here.
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby Twilly » Mon 26 May 2008, 07:57:13

skyemoor wrote:
Twilly wrote:
Are you employed by a firm that has business with the Big 3 in any way? (answer truthfully)


Truthfully, No I am not employed in any way by the big 3...

I can agree that the Big 3 have made some mistakes in the last 20 years, But I can speak for Ford that they have their act together today and are making cars at the same quality level as any Jap car. Also they now have the same warrenty.

What you guys fail to see is that if you dont support American companies, We all lose. If you are unemployed, or the best job you can find is minimum wage, you wont be able to afford ANY car... Or food... We need to look at the big picture here
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby Alanintx » Mon 26 May 2008, 09:36:31

In 2006, I moved from a Durango to an Accord V6. Last May, seeing what was coming, I traded into a Camry Hybrid.

This was one of the best moves I ever made. First, I received a nice tax credit on my '07 taxes (note, the Camry tax credit has probably already played out). Second, I average about 30-33 mpg in the city and 40 on the highway, from 20-30 mpg I got from the Accord. Not to mention the savings total from the 12/16 the Durango gave me.

Lastly, in the course of a year the car depreciated about $4500--as best as I can tell. I think by early '09 I may actually see an appreciation if things go the way I thought they would in May '07.

Too bad Chevy won't make the Malibu or Saturan sedan hybrid in any real numbers. Go try to find one right now...not available, at least in Austin. I cannot find them listed at any dealer in Texas, actually. But if and when you can, that might worth a buy as the full tax credit should be available. The credit on the Escape must be pretty well played out by now, and my understanding you pay MRSP plus whatever dealer markup they choose.
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby VMarcHart » Mon 26 May 2008, 12:16:16

Greetings. New guy here.

From a conservationist point of view, going from a gas-guzzler Surburban to a hybrid SUV is like going from beating your child twice a day to once every other day. It's a great step, your child is very thankful, but you're still beating the kid.

Since this is PeakOil ... get real, folks! Move in to walking distance to work, buy a bicycle, become a one-Corolla family, and carry less fuel-consumming junk in your car. Your contribution will be greatly appreciated.

Please stay in touch.
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Mon 26 May 2008, 14:24:04

I honestly don't think I am part of the problem. If there was a comparable American car to the Prius, I would buy it. It does not exist.

The American Car makers have made so many errors and have completely missed again, just like in the late 70's, the market for fuel efficient cars. They are now so strapped with huge overhead burdens put on them by the Unions( ie Pensions, work rules, etc. ) that they have a hard time beating the competition. Toyota makes a very high quality product.......and in my opinion, are the best car makers on the planet.

Also, Japan is part of the solution to peak oil. They are a smart resourceful people that are also a great friend to the USA. Lets hope their inovative scientists ,along with ours, can help us survive.

None of us can get ahead by being a "doomer". Sure, prepare for the worst....get out of debt, live conservatively, prepare to be self sufficient, but hope that maybe, just maybe, some bright person in America, Japan, India or wherever comes up with the answer to provide us with a new energy source!

Otherwise...we can all be like the "Post Oil Man" on youtube and drink ourselves to death on Okra whiskey!! Whats the fun in that! LOL
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby skyemoor » Mon 26 May 2008, 20:55:42

Twilly wrote:I can agree that the Big 3 have made some mistakes in the last 20 years, But I can speak for Ford that they have their act together today and are making cars at the same quality level as any Jap car.


"Some mistakes"?? The understatement of the year.

And how is it you can speak for Ford?

What you guys fail to see is that if you dont support American companies, We all lose. If you are unemployed, or the best job you can find is minimum wage, you wont be able to afford ANY car... Or food... We need to look at the big picture here


What you fail to see is we don't want to bury ourselves in personal and national oil debt just to please the corporate boards at the Big 3 who knowingly decided to over-promote SUVs and large pickups so that they could collect large bonuses, knowing that there would be hell to pay with the albatross of a gas-guzzling fleet around our necks.

They teased us with the 88 mpg, 4 seat GM Ultralite in 1992. Then of course, the big tease they planned to pull from the start, the EV-1 (go rent "Who Killed the Electric Car?"). Then they asked the Bush Administration to pull to the plug on the
Partnership for a New Generation Vehicle (PNGV), after GM, Ford, and Chrysler had produced prototypes of 5 seat family cars that achieved up to 80 mpg, replacing it with a decades-away fig leaf called the "Freedom Car", that's still decades away.

So don't think those of us who have been waiting for the Big 3 to act responsibly are just going to suck it up and just fall in line like good little boys and girls. For years, I used to urge family and friends to 'Buy American', usually successfully. But the continuing irresponsible actions from Detroit finally burned me out on expecting them to do right by America. The responsibility for the demise of US automaking jobs lies firmly in their corporate boardrooms, not in the public they've suckered time and time again.

Again, what autos from the Big 3 have the size and fuel economy of a Prius? Perhaps you think I should wait for a $48,000 GM Volt? Not a chance...
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby moawdtsi » Mon 26 May 2008, 21:24:19

I went through this decision in Feb. Corolla or Prius. For 10,900 I bought a used 5 speed '06 corolla with 17k miles on it. It gets 28 mpg in the city and I don't really baby it. I took a 1000 mile trip recently and about 150 of that was in the city. I averaged 35 mpg for the trip and was going 75 mpg on the highway portion of the trip. For $28,900 for a new Prius, I would wait for the plug in version, $18,000 will buy a lot of gas.
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby tsgreer » Tue 27 May 2008, 22:13:04

skyemoor wrote:
Twilly wrote:So your part of the problem??? Why buy a Toyota? The American economy is failing and you want to buy a Japanese car? SNIP...


Twilly,

Name an American-built car with the room and fuel economy of a Prius.

None? No. Want to know why? When higher fuel efficiency standards are proposed, the Japanese hire engineers and designers. The Big 3, on the other hand, hire lobbyists and lawyers SNIP


Hi all, this is my first post, so forgive me if I make any big mistakes. But I gotta agree with Skyemoor on this one. American vehicle makers dropped the ball AGAIN! I mean, ya think they woulda learned from the energy crisis in the 70's. They lost out to smaller cars then too.

We just don't have the kind of energy efficient cars that other country's do because so many of our lawmakers make big money from oil companies.

I drive a Honda scooter--yes, laugh, but it gets 102 miles to the gallon! (I drive my Hyundai Elantra in the winter months and when I need a car). I mean, I am seeing scooters everywhere now, but any american ones? Nope.

I would totally buy American (even if it cost a bit more) if we had the kind of quality that Honda is known for. You can't even tear up a Honda cycle on purpose!!

Anyway, I want to thank everyone on this forum for opening my eyes to a lot of stuff. I am 3 months away from being totally debt-free (except for the house and I plan to have that paid off in 6 yrs) and want to start doing more solar stuff. You guys are a great resource! :)
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Re: Buying A Hybrid in the current 2008 market

Unread postby lowem » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 00:38:08

So I went and booked my 2008 Honda Civic Hybrid, joining a long queue of buyers with delivery dates stretching out as far out as 2 to 3 months and in some cases, 4 months. Guess they can't quite make the hybrids fast enough, with oil prices zooming into the $120-130 territory.

Well. Somebody else will be owning my 1.6L Civic though. At least, with fuel consumption going at 12-14 km/l [28-33 mpg], that isn't much of a gas guzzler.

Through my monthly energy trust dividends, my petrol bills [gasoline for you Americans] are already 100% hedged at the moment. So when the hybrid arrives and if it works as advertised, I would be 200% hedged.
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Hybrids may be inefficient after all

Unread postby JohnM » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 10:56:08

I'm actually surprised, but it seems that hybrids are more energy INEFFICIENT than most large SUVs, let alone other small cars. When taking into account their manufacturing, marketing, selling, servicing, recycling, fuel consumption etc. ... a Honda Accord Hybrid requires 50% more overall energy than a normal Honda Accord, and almost twice as much as a Hummer H3.


Read more about it HERE: http://www.dieselnet.com/news/2006/04cnw.php


The full "Dust to Dust" report from CNW Marketing Research in PDF format:
http://www.cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automotiveenergy/DUST%20PDF%20VERSION.pdf


I understand that some of you may think this is hogwash and that CNW's research was funded by some car or oil company, but it's actually the polar opposite of that. This research paper was privately funded by CNW, and a few years back General Motors actually funded a survey that contradicts the results of CNW's research.

So concider that.


Opinions, comments? No flaming thanks.
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Re: Hybrids may be inefficient after all

Unread postby WisJim » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 11:14:47

This was debunked years ago, as propaganda by anti-green nitwits. Has been discussed over and over, back when it was news.
One of many articles about the story:
http://www.thecarconnection.com/article ... g-the-myth
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Re: Hybrids may be inefficient after all

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 11:29:32

Yeah. I fell for the same thing a few months ago. CNW is apparently a green wash front for the detroit auto industry, and their report is pretty much garbage.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35971.html
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The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Hybrids may be inefficient after all

Unread postby JohnM » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 11:42:28

WisJim wrote:This was debunked years ago

I doubt that since the study was released last year.


WisJim wrote:propaganda by anti-green nitwits.

That's a bit harsh, they seem to have struck a nerve :D


WisJim wrote:One of many articles about the story:
http://www.thecarconnection.com/article ... g-the-myth

Good counterpoints indeed. But as even the author of that article said, the CNW report brings out some interesting stuff anways.


smallpoxgirl wrote:Yeah. I fell for the same thing a few months ago. CNW is apparently a green wash front for the detroit auto industry, and their report is pretty much garbage.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35971.html

Okay, interesting! :)
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Hybrid sales plunge as demand keeps rising

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 12:50:42

[sic!]

Detroit Free Press

Battery shortage limits Toyota supply

BY BRENT SNAVELY • FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER • June 11, 2008

Throughout metro Detroit and the nation, auto dealers can't get their hands on enough hybrids to meet soaring customer interest.

"We've got about a four- to five-month wait on Prius Hybrid and about a three-month wait on Camry Hybrid," said Chad Ratliff, general sales manager for Mike Fox Toyota in Rochester Hills. "As a dealer body, we are all screaming."

With customer demand for hybrids surging, several automakers -- including Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. -- are struggling to produce enough hybrid cars to meet the need, causing sales of many hybrid models to drop in May.

"I think what happened in May was basically an availability problem," said Tom Libby, senior director of industry analysis for J.D. Power and Associates.

But no vehicle experienced a volume drop on par with hybrid market leader Prius. Toyota said last week that sales of the Prius declined 37.5%, to 15,011, compared with 24,009 in May 2007. Also, sales of its Camry Hybrid sank 12.5%, to 5,999. That's in stark contrast to April, when Prius sales increased 61% and Camry Hybrid sales rose 51%.


May 2008 Dashboard: Carmakers Neglect High Hybrid Demand

May hybrid sales were a mystery. Gas prices soared, so you would expect the most fuel-efficient vehicles to be selling at record numbers. Instead, May 2008 hybrid sales fell by nearly 25 percent compared to last year. Didn’t Toyota and the other hybrid makers see that oil broke past $100 per barrel on the first business day of the year? Didn’t they expect gas prices to spike at the beginning of driving season? Aren’t they doing scenario planning to prepare for golden opportunities like $4 gas? Isn’t Toyota trying to reach global sales of 1 million hybrids per year, as a way to reach economies of scale and lower the hybrid premium?

The only reasonable answer to these questions is: Yeah, but Toyota prefers to be very cautious. The company would rather neglect a short-term opportunity to pump up hybrid sales—in favor of slow and steady growth according to well-established plans. The result? Prius sales were down 38 percent compared to last year and Camry Hybrid sales dropped by 13 percent. Bear in mind that last year at this time, gas prices were relatively low, and industry pundits were declaring the death of hybrids as Toyota put consumer incentives on hybrids for the first time.


Allover vehicle sales were up for May, though. :evil:
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Re: Hybrid sales plunge as demand keeps rising

Unread postby diemos » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 12:57:45

Huh?

If fewer units are being sold despite screaming demand then there must be a bottleneck in production or supply is being diverted to other markets.

Anyone know the real story?
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Re: Hybrid sales plunge as demand keeps rising

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 13:39:24

Huh?

If fewer units are being sold despite screaming demand then there must be a bottleneck in production or supply is being diverted to other markets.

Anyone know the real story?


Sure: not enough Copper Tops or Eveready Bunnies to go around:

Battery shortage restrains production of Toyota hybrids

TOKYO: Toyota is struggling to keep up with booming demand for hybrid vehicles because it is unable to make enough batteries that are key components of the popular "green" cars, a senior executive said Monday.

The battery crunch is likely to continue for the rest of the year, since new lines cannot be added to increase production until 2009, said Takeshi Uchiyamada, executive vice president of Toyota Motor, who oversees production at the leading Japanese automaker.

"Hybrids are selling so well we are doing all we can to increase production," he said. "We need new lines."

He was speaking as a hybrid rival and the second-biggest Japanese automaker, Honda Motor, began production of its newest fuel-cell car.


Other automakers are speeding hybrid production. Honda has said it will increase hybrid sales to 500,000 a year sometime after 2010. Honda also will introduce a new hybrid-only model, its fourth, next year.

Nissan Motor, which has not yet developed its own hybrid for commerce, said it would do so by 2010. Nissan said its joint venture with NEC would start mass-producing lithium-ion batteries in 2009 at a plant in Japan.

Toyota plans to sell one million hybrid vehicles a year sometime after 2010.


This is why I'm so pessimistic about replacing the US auto fleet in any meaningful time frame. Commentators seem to think this can be done in the span of a year or two - they really haven't investigated how the auto industry works at all. These are world wide sales, too.
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Re: Hybrid sales plunge as demand keeps rising

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 13:43:09

TheDude wrote: Commentators seem to think this can be done in the span of a year or two - they really haven't investigated how the auto industry works at all. These are world wide sales, too.


The less you know, the easier it is to be optimistic.

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