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The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 14 May 2020, 15:38:11

MonteQuest wrote:Ok, I didn't mean to sound like I was conflating here. In 2018, wind, solar, and geothermal increased their share of the overall energy pie .3% from 1.7% in 2017 to 2% in 2018. 2016 to 2017, just .1%. Same for 2015 to 2016. As to electricity, modern renewables grew from 5.9% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2018. All renewables grew 1.6%. That's a doubling time of 44 years. 88 years to meet a doubling of energy by 2050. The Law of Diminishing returns says that won't happen. Again, you do realize that to go from 7.9% in electrical power today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you? I expect most of the new demand for energy will be in the form of electricity, don't you? So, that demand may be more than double for electricity. And even if it is met, it's only 25% of energy demand. 75% is heating and transportation. However, by 2050, that 25% will rise.

You can post all manner of cheapness, growth rates, projections, etc. But as long as new demand for energy outstrips nearly all gains, we are in a Red Queen Syndrome. That was the case in 2004 when I heard the same claims and it's still true today. The growth rate of renewables is just too slow to make a significant difference. What do you see changing? I see demand going up even faster as developing countries try to urbanize.
No need to read some fantasy novel here Monte. The facts are listed right in REN21. Electricity demand increased. Yet wind and solar still increased their market share by 1% annually. It already happened. Several years in a row it has been happening. It's not fantasy, it's fact. From 2018 to 2050 is 32 years. Just going by today's increase in market share, not factoring in any increase at all, wind & solar go from 8% market share today to 40% in 2050. And that's just wind & solar.

MonteQuest wrote:You can post all manner of cheapness, growth rates, projections, etc. But as long as new demand for energy outstrips nearly all gains, we are in a Red Queen Syndrome. That was the case in 2004 when I heard the same claims and it's still true today. The growth rate of renewables is just too slow to make a significant difference. What do you see changing? I see demand going up even faster as developing countries try to urbanize.
You say that. Then you use conflated growth rates of .1% to confirm your bias. However that growth rate was for all energy, not electricity. Just at today's growth rate alone we will hit 40% wind & solar by 2050. You can point to all manner of Red Queen Syndrome, Law of Diminishing returns, Betz limit, etc. It does not alter the facts.

MonteQuest wrote:The average of cost for solar PV also declined 73.8% between 2010 and 2018, and wind costs fell 22%, yet little market share was gained. So falling costs are not the whole story.
Oh really? Solar PV capacity additions in 2010 were 24 GW. In 2018, they were 100 GW. Costs falling to one quarter of their former value had nothing to do with a quadrupling of additions huh?

MonteQuest wrote:not to mention the abysmal growth in market share.
Still conflating the growth rate of all energy with electricity I see. A 1% annual increase in market share will take wind & solar to 40% of market share by 2050. That's just wind & solar alone.

MonteQuest wrote:2019's data will be out in June. I don't anticipate a huge jump from that .4%/yr growth rate. Any bet takers?
I'll take that bet. I've already seen the data for 2019 from global dashboard. Their values are slightly different from REN21 but in the same ballpark. They show coal generation falling. I'm betting wind & solar will increase their market share by at least double that rate.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 20:17:32

kublikhan wrote: No need to read some fantasy novel here Monte. The facts are listed right in REN21. Electricity demand increased.


I posted a correction, modern renewables market share actually decreased, according to REN21. Did you see it? It seems you ignored it and hammered my error instead. :)

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:The average of cost for solar PV also declined 73.8% between 2010 and 2018, and wind costs fell 22%, yet little market share was gained. So falling costs are not the whole story.
Oh really? Solar PV capacity additions in 2010 were 24 GW. In 2018, they were 100 GW. Costs falling to one quarter of their former value had nothing to do with a quadrupling of additions huh?


It had all to do with the quadrupling of installed capacity, yet it gained little in market share. .5% in 2004, 2% in 2018.

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:not to mention the abysmal growth in market share.
Still conflating the growth rate of all energy with electricity I see. A 1% annual increase in market share will take wind & solar to 40% of market share by 2050. That's just wind & solar alone.
The Rule of 70 says a 1% growth rate takes 70 years just to double. 2017 to 2018 was just .4%. (See the REN21 charts)

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:2019's data will be out in June. I don't anticipate a huge jump from that .4%/yr growth rate. Any bet takers?
I'll take that bet. I've already seen the data for 2019 from global dashboard. Their values are slightly different from REN21 but in the same ballpark. They show coal generation falling. I'm betting wind & solar will increase their market share by at least double that rate.


Double? From .4% to .8%?
Last edited by MonteQuest on Thu 14 May 2020, 20:35:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 20:32:44

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:You can post all manner of cheapness, growth rates, projections, etc. But as long as new demand for energy outstrips nearly all gains, we are in a Red Queen Syndrome. That was the case in 2004 when I heard the same claims and it's still true today. The growth rate of renewables is just too slow to make a significant difference. What do you see changing? I see demand going up even faster as developing countries try to urbanize.
You say that. Then you use conflated growth rates of .1% to confirm your bias. However that growth rate was for all energy, not electricity.


I never intentionally conflate data to confirm my position. I do, however, sometimes make mistakes--and I posted a correction.

Yes, the .1%/yr in 2017 and the .3%/yr in 2018 modern renewable growth rate was for all energy. But the growth rate of modern renewables in electrical power generation was just .4%/yr in 2018 and ALL renewables share actually decreased from 2017. See the REN21 charts.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 14 May 2020, 20:46:03

MonteQuest wrote:I posted a correction, modern renewables market share actually decreased, according to REN21. Did you see it? It seems you ignored it and hammered my error instead.
Incorrect. You said modern renewables were wind, solar, and geothermal. You always made it a point to not include hydro power. It was hydro that fell in 2018. Solar & wind grew. Also, why are you looking at one year of data? I posted 3 years of data showing wind & solar growing 1% annually in market share.

MonteQuest wrote:It had all to do with the quadrupling of installed capacity, yet it gained little in market share. .5% in 2004, 2% in 2018.
In 2004 we had 4GW of solar, total. That's nothing. Did you really think the numbers would budge from 4GW of solar? On the other hand we are now adding 100GW per year. And the market share needle is now moving. 1% per year.

MonteQuest wrote:The Rule of 70 says a 1% growth rate takes 70 years to double. 2017 to 2018 was just .4%. (See the REN21 charts)
You are conflating growth rate and increase in market share. Those are two different values. Wind & Solar PV growth rate are far more than 1%:

In the last decade alone, solar has experienced an average annual growth rate of 48%.
Solar Industry Research Data

Global installed wind power capacity increased from 197.6 gigawatts (GW) in 2010 to 594.5 GW in 2018 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.8%
Global wind power market expected to approach $125bn by 2030

MonteQuest wrote:Double? From .4% to .8%?
Yes.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 21:05:42

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:I posted a correction, modern renewables market share actually decreased, according to REN21. Did you see it? It seems you ignored it and hammered my error instead.
Incorrect. You said modern renewables were wind, solar, and geothermal. You always made it a point to not include hydro power. It was hydro that fell in 2018. Solar & wind grew. Also, why are you looking at one year of data? I posted 3 years of data showing wind & solar growing 1% annually in market share.


Like I said, I make mistakes. This is another. ALL renewables market share decreased from 26.5% to 26.2% 2017-to 2018. Modern renewables increased their share .4%' from 7.9% to 8.3%. I have stated as such many times.

I didn't post just one year's data. I posted several. Modern renewables have been growing their share of the energy market at .1/yr since 2014. Only in 2018 did it reach .3%. From 2004 it was just .5%, in 2018 2%.

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:The Rule of 70 says a 1% growth rate takes 70 years to double. 2017 to 2018 was just .4%. (See the REN21 charts)
You are conflating growth rate and increase in market share. Those are two different values. Wind & Solar PV growth rate are far more than 1%:


This is getting tedious. Didn't I just post the massive growth rates of wind and solar installed capacity over the years? If wind and solar are to replace fossil fuels, it isn't the growth rate of installed capacity that matters, it's the growth rate of market share. How much are renewables displacing fossil fuels? They didn't even meet but 25% of new overall energy demand in 2018, according to the IEA. New energy demand nearly outstrips all gains.

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Double? From .4% to .8%?
Yes.


At that rate, it will take 87.5 years to double to 16.6% from 8.3%. 70/.8 = 87.5 years.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 14 May 2020, 21:11:35

"If You Want ‘Renewable Energy,’ Get Ready to Dig"

Building one wind turbine requires 900 tons of steel, 2,500 tons of concrete and 45 tons of nonrecyclable plastic. Solar power requires even more cement, steel and glass—not to mention other metals. Global silver and indium mining will jump 250% and 1,200% respectively over the next couple of decades to provide the materials necessary to build the number of solar panels, the International Energy Agency forecasts. World demand for rare-earth elements—which aren’t rare but are rarely mined in America—will rise 300% to 1,000% by 2050 to meet the Paris green goals. If electric vehicles replace conventional cars, demand for cobalt and lithium, will rise more than 20-fold. That doesn’t count batteries to back up wind and solar grids.

Last year a Dutch government-sponsored study concluded that the Netherlands’ green ambitions alone would consume a major share of global minerals. “Exponential growth in [global] renewable energy production capacity is not possible with present-day technologies and annual metal production,” it concluded.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 21:21:04

Kub, let’s agree on some key points. We keep rehashing ground already covered. Data from REN21 2019 report on 2018.

In 2018, renewables supplied 26.2% of all electrical power.

Wind, solar and geothermal met 8.3% of that, growing market share .4% over 2017.

In 2018, renewables supplied 20.3% of all energy.

Wind, solar and geothermal met 2% of that, growing market share .3% over 2017.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 21:30:15



You beat me to the punch, ralfy. I was just starting to go there. They are installing a whole new batch of giant turbines less than a mile from my farm. 155 went in last year 5 miles south. It's like X-mas every night with the red glow. They built a complete cement plant on the top of the ridge. Miles of cable are trucked in. The turbines come by rail to 20 miles away and then they are trucked to the site-one blade at a time. When they are done, they have to totally rebuild the road they came in on. To make the turns, they must fill in the corners of the intersections. Diesel engines run day and night.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 14 May 2020, 21:39:59

MonteQuest wrote:At that rate, it will take 87.5 years to double to 16.6% from 8.3%. 70/.8 = 87.5 years.
No it won't. It would take 10 years. .8% increase in market share per year * 10 = 8% growth in market share after 10 years. Adding the starting 8% = 16%. We have already seen this happen in the REN21 data. Wind & Solar had about 1% growth in market share from 2014 to 2018. They started at 4% in 2014. Then ended at around 8% in 2018. They doubled in 4 years. This matches perfectly with my formula. If we used your formula it should have taken 70 years for wind & solar to double their market share. But in only took 4 years.

Wind & solar share of global electricity market
2014 4%
2015 4.9%
2016 5.5%
2017 7.5%
2018 7.9%
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 22:55:57

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:At that rate, it will take 87.5 years to double to 16.6% from 8.3%. 70/.8 = 87.5 years.
No it won't. It would take 10 years. .8% increase in market share per year * 10 = 8% growth in market share after 10 years. Adding the starting 8% = 16%. We have already seen this happen in the REN21 data. Wind & Solar had about 1% growth in market share from 2014 to 2018. They started at 4% in 2014. Then ended at around 8% in 2018. They doubled in 4 years. This matches perfectly with my formula. If we used your formula it should have taken 70 years for wind & solar to double their market share. But in only took 4 years.


The Rule of 70 gives you the doubling time for a given (.8%) annual rate of growth. The last two years it's been .4%/yr. So, 87.5 years is a correct statement, but probably not apropos for this. Has it grown faster in the past? Yes. The data reflects that. But it is now slowing to .4% since 2017. Will they grow faster in the future? We don't know. How much will the demand for fossil fuels grow in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Africa and South America? With oil so cheap, it's use may surge. With the Law of Diminishing returns in play and the demand for energy doubling, it's unsure where growth rates are going--especially with the demand destruction and economic collapse we are facing. It's probably foolish for us to project anything at the moment. No one knows how this will play out. It may be all downhill from here on out. Que, no? 8)
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 14 May 2020, 23:17:40

MonteQuest wrote:The Rule of 70 gives you the doubling time for a given (.8%) annual rate of growth. The last two years it's been .4%/yr. So, 87.5 years is a correct statement, but probably not apropos for this.
Incorrect. In this case, .8% is not the annual rate of growth rate. It is the change in the market share that always adds up to 100%. The rule of 70 does not apply here. I just demonstrate the rule of 70 failing in this scenario in my previous post. So no, 87.5 years is an incorrect statement. It would however work if you used it for capacity additions because that is the real growth rate. Another incorrect statement was that the last two years were .4%/yr. 2018 was .4%/yr. 2017 was 2%, 5 times higher.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 23:31:45

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:The Rule of 70 gives you the doubling time for a given (.8%) annual rate of growth. The last two years it's been .4%/yr. So, 87.5 years is a correct statement, but probably not apropos for this.
Incorrect. In this case, .8% is not the annual rate of growth rate. It is the change in the market share that always adds up to 100%. The rule of 70 does not apply here. I just demonstrate the rule of 70 failing in this scenario in my previous post. So no, 87.5 years is an incorrect statement. It would however work if you used it for capacity additions because that is the real growth rate. Another incorrect statement was that the last two years were .4%/yr. 2018 was .4%/yr. 2017 was 2%, 5 times higher.


I just said it was not apropos. :) Not sure why I said it in the first place. It's not like I don't know the numbers. My mind isn't as sharp and quick as it used to be. My short term memory is shot. Can't remember where I Iaid my hammer down. LOL! 2016 was 7.5%, 2017 was 7.9%, 2018 was 8.3% .4% for both years. 2019's REN21 data will be out in June.

Do you agree with these REN21 numbers?

In 2018, renewables supplied 26.2% of all electrical power.

Wind, solar and geothermal met 8.3% of that, growing market share .4% over 2017.

In 2018, renewables supplied 20.3% of all energy.

Wind, solar and geothermal met 2% of that, growing market share .3% over 2017.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 14 May 2020, 23:40:50

MonteQuest wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:The Rule of 70 gives you the doubling time for a given (.8%) annual rate of growth. The last two years it's been .4%/yr. So, 87.5 years is a correct statement, but probably not apropos for this.
Incorrect. In this case, .8% is not the annual rate of growth rate. It is the change in the market share that always adds up to 100%. The rule of 70 does not apply here. I just demonstrate the rule of 70 failing in this scenario in my previous post. So no, 87.5 years is an incorrect statement. It would however work if you used it for capacity additions because that is the real growth rate. Another incorrect statement was that the last two years were .4%/yr. 2018 was .4%/yr. 2017 was 2%, 5 times higher.


I just said it was not apropos. :) Not sure why I said it in the first place. It's not like I don't know the numbers. My mind isn't as sharp and quick as it used to be. My short term memory is shot. Can't remember where I Iaid my hammer down. LOL! 2016 was 7.5%, 2017 was 7.9%, 2018 was 8.3% .4% for both years. 2019's REN21 data will be out in June.

Do you agree with these numbers?
No. Here's what REN21 says for wind and solar's share, geothermal is in added in parenthesis:
2016: 5.5%(5.9%)
2017: 7.5%(7.9%)
2018: 7.9%(8.3%)
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 23:58:27

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Do you agree with these numbers?
No. Here's what REN21 says for wind and solar's share, geothermal is in added in parenthesis:
2016: 5.5%(5.9%)
2017: 7.5%(7.9%)
2018: 7.9%(8.3%)


My bad. My eyesight is gone, too. I was looking at the wrong chart. My charts show:

2016: 5.3%
2017: 7.9%
2018: 8.3%

But the numbers I was asking about were the data below my question. :) Sorry for all the mistakes.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 15 May 2020, 00:05:28

N/P :) I'm actually getting tired of math anyway.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 15 May 2020, 06:53:53

kublikhan wrote:N/P :) I'm actually getting tired of math anyway.


I have been watching the numbers for years now. At one point I was very optimistic about renewables but then very skeptical. I am now in acceptance of their limited value and their vitality to a transformation in decline. I reject the hype of them being a transcendental energy paradigm. The primary problem is all the other issues of the human and planetary condition. There is not enough power in renewables to overcome this. Human behavior is possibly the biggest issue. Lower populations of awakened humans who can live with seasonality, intermittency, and less material in localized living would be a start but even now not enough to transcend the consequences of planetary and human decline. Failure is baked into the cake so live with it. It is only accepting this paradigm of decline can one go forth and use renewables rationally.

Renewables are a great tech. I spent $20K on mine. I am also using the old fashion renewables of wood, grass, and animals. It is a mix of modern and old that can transform life. That said what I am doing since it is also green does not pay the bills of modern life. I am using my fossil fuel drenched nest egg from a previous life to do what I am doing. If SHTF I am in a good place at least for the start of it. My local in the Ozarks of Missouri is not bad in regards to resilience and sustainability but still not survivable in a really bad situation. I am better than a mega city of 15MIL but less good than maybe somewhere in the southern hemisphere with good land and less people. My point is I have renewables but it will only improve me so much. I then have the issue with all the other obstacles.

Energy can only solve so many problems and this is where the techno optimist veers of course. Tech leads them by the nose instead of starting with a wisdom that choses what tech to use and what to reject. Cost and price do the leading now instead of values. The math is not there in my opinion for a transition paradigm but a transformation is definitely there. Many people have money now but instead of buying a basic solar system for more resilience they buy a fancy car or boat. Cities buy a new sport stadium. Nations a new aircraft carrier. The complexity of all these complications clouds true value that I feel green prepping unlocks. Green prepping says do some renewables but also do some old ones with some new ones. All this glitter and dopamine of this tech crap is a siren song of doom. Where renewables could be truly helpful, they are instead in risk of being stranded assets when applied in efficiency of cost and performance in huge applications. That said the world is going off the cliff of sustainability so I guess a huge solar farm is better than a Permian basin. But it still is wrong way in regards to humanity and the planet.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 15 May 2020, 08:52:25

REAL Green wrote:
kublikhan wrote:N/P :) I'm actually getting tired of math anyway.


I have been watching the numbers for years now. At one point I was very optimistic about renewables but then very skeptical. I am now in acceptance of their limited value and their vitality to a transformation in decline. I reject the hype of them being a transcendental energy paradigm.


I have to say, I was never optimistic about renewables. My epiphany about our situation occurred back in 1972 after reading "The Limits to Growth." It changed me. After reading Catton's Overshoot in 1982, I had another epiphany.

Since neither the EIA nor the IEA see geothermal playing any significant role in our energy future, I am no longer going to include them in any “modern renewable” numbers I use.

In the most recent EIA outlook, they see wind and solar largely responsible for the gains in renewable’s electricity market share in the U.S. going forward, which they forecast to double by 2050. However, this gain in market share is also achieved by a projected decline in nuclear and coal use of over 50% by 2025. I think these are very rosy wind/solar projections, given that their growth in market share was less than .5% from 3.3% in 2018 to 3.78% in 2019. And even if renewables do double electrical market share by 2050 in the U.S., they will still account for just a small percentage of US overall energy demand, of which 75% lies in heating and transportation. Currently, solar PV provides just 1.04% of U.S. electrical demand. Wind, 2.74%. Source: EIA/Lawrence Livermore Labs.

And given the demand destruction and economic collapse at the moment, no one knows where this is going. But with oil and NG now so cheap, and investment capital in question, renewable projects may be tabled for some time.

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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 15 May 2020, 09:33:24

REAL Green wrote: I am using my fossil fuel drenched nest egg from a previous life to do what I am doing. If SHTF I am in a good place at least for the start of it.


That is what some of us have done. Even today that former wealth insulates us from the worst economic impacts of this pandemic. Wise but as you say all of this was built mostly on the abundance of the fossil fuel age.

So all of us who made these wise choices are actually just like the renewable energy, dependent on the foundation of abundant and cheap fossil fuels that created initially the wealth so we can enjoy the fruits of our "sustainable" life styles.

That is why I mention often that ALL of our shit stinks. It is a bit crude but you get the point.

Confession: I am a 3 million mile member with American Airlines. I have hardly flown the past 10 years. All those miles were accumulated when in International business. All these 400 acres of preserved cloud forest wilderness sit on the back of all that carbon that was burned as I was selling medical devices in Latin America for almost 20 years.

How about the generation to follow?
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 15 May 2020, 09:47:25

Ibon wrote:That is what some of us have done. Even today that former wealth insulates us from the worst economic impacts of this pandemic. Wise but as you say all of this was built mostly on the abundance of the fossil fuel age.

So all of us who made these wise choices are actually just like the renewable energy, dependent on the foundation of abundant and cheap fossil fuels that created initially the wealth so we can enjoy the fruits of our "sustainable" life styles.

That is why I mention often that ALL of our shit stinks.


Well said. The bottleneck will spare no one. The rate and magnitude of how fast it will arrive will determine a lot. But as we are witnessing, bottlenecks can come like a thief in the night.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 15 May 2020, 11:15:53

Correction: "Currently, solar PV provides just 1.04% of U.S. electrical demand. Wind, 2.74%. Source: Lawrence Livermore Labs."

It should read: Currently, solar PV provides just 1.04% of U.S. overall energy demand. Wind, 2.74%. 3.78% total. Source: Lawrence Livermore Labs. Electricity supplied to the grid is .65% solar and 2.73% wind or 9% of total power generation.

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