[MonteQuest]

I predict 2020 will have more renewables in the mix than 2019.

Could happen. It's always been my argument that the only way renewables will gain a huge portion of market share would either be from demand destruction of oil and gas or a peak in availability. No one knows where this will end up. No one.

[MonteQuest]

I think it makes sense to clean up the power sector before trying to tackle transportation.

But the power sector, where? The developed world? That isn't where the need is going to be. It's in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Africa, and South America. That's where the population is going to grow which will double the demand for energy by 2050. If FF's are cheap, they will use them. If the investment in renewables isn't there, they will use them.

[MonteQuest]

As for heating and cooling, I think the best bet is to go with CHP plants.

Most analysts I have read say a transition to electric heat pumps is the key. About 37% of US homes are electrified, using inefficient baseboard heating rather than the much more efficient heat pumps. Only about 1% of American homes currently have heat pumps. Some 48 percent of homes use natural gas, which dominates in every region except the South. Most builders and contractors are still in the mindset that cheap natural gas is the best choice. That's a huge retrofit with huge upfront capital costs. But it is a huge opportunity to see efficiency gains at the residential level.

[kublikhan]

But the power sector, where? The developed world? That isn't where the need is going to be. It's in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Africa, and South America. That's where the population is going to grow which will double the demand for energy by 2050. If FF's are cheap, they will use them. If the investment in renewables isn't there, they will use them.

Much of Africa doesn't even have access to grid energy. And burning diesel in portable generators is not exactly cheap. IEA is predicting strong renewable growth in Africa.

Renewable energy will make up almost half of sub-Saharan Africa’s power generation growth by 2040, according to a report by the International Energy Agency. The report, which is the IEA’s first major analysis of sub-Saharan Africa, looked at the region’s potential to supply energy to the approximately 620 million people who still lack access to electricity. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy has been growing rapidly since 2000, the report notes, but the fact that two-thirds of the region’s population lacks access to electricity is stymieing that growth.

The report predicts that, over the next 26 years, sub-Saharan Africa will start to unlock its “vast renewable energy resources” and that solar energy will lead the growth in renewables in the region. “Geothermal becomes the second-largest source of power supply in East Africa, mainly in Kenya and Ethiopia,” the report’s authors predict. “Two-thirds of the mini-grid and off-grid systems in rural areas in 2040 are powered by solar photovoltaics, small hydropower or wind. As technology costs come down, the attraction of renewable systems versus diesel generators grows (although they are often used in combination), especially where financing is available to cover the higher upfront expense.”

Renewable Energy in Africa Is Set to Surge by 2040, IEA Says

Africa’s leading economies are increasingly looking to wind energy to power homes. It’s part of a trend towards varying forms of clean energy across the continent. South Africa, the continent’s most advanced economy, is a clear leader in renewable energy policy and projects. For example it will lead the drive for wind power installations with an additional 3.3 gigawatts added to its energy capacity by 2024, as it both tries to cope with the problems at its national power company, Eskom, and tries to slowly reduce its addiction to coal. Kenya is also a major leader and opened Africa’s largest wind farm last year and is on course to soon be able to claim 100% renewable energy from a range of sources including geothermal and solar.

Clean, renewable energy is being adopted across sub-Saharan Africa boosted by policy incentives, backing by donors to overcome the lack of local finance and developing de-risking mechanisms for reluctant governments. “low hydro availability and a growing reluctance to finance coal will boost investment in renewables in the long run.” That’s a good news, it helps that gas and coal are somewhat curtailed by the cost of the infrastructure required to implement new projects.

Renewable energy investment is taking big strides in sub-Saharan Africa

The African Development Bank (AfDB) will not fund a coal-fired power plant project in Kenya and has no plans to finance new coal plants in future, senior AfDB officials told Reuters. Dozens of top banks, insurers and development finance institutions are restricting coal investments, as climate activists and investors voice growing concerns about the impact of burning fossil fuels, particularly coal.

AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina told Reuters at a conference in South Africa the bank took environmental concerns seriously and was focusing on renewable energy, adding that coal projects risked becoming “stranded assets” on the AfDB’s balance sheet. The AfDB president had told U.N. climate talks in September that the bank was “getting out of coal.”

African Development Bank decides not to fund Kenya coal project

Most analysts I have read say a transition to electric heat pumps is the key. About 37% of US homes are electrified, using inefficient baseboard heating rather than the much more efficient heat pumps. Only about 1% of American homes currently have heat pumps. Some 48 percent of homes use natural gas, which dominates in every region except the South. Most builders and contractors are still in the mindset that cheap natural gas is the best choice. That's a huge retrofit with huge upfront capital costs. But it is a huge opportunity to see efficiency gains at the residential level.

Heat pumps are a great option in certain climates. However they don't do so well in severe cold.

[MonteQuest]

Heat pumps are a great option in certain climates. However they don't do so well in severe cold.

I Live in NW Missouri where it often goes well below zero in the winter. My mini-split heat pump does just fine.

[MonteQuest]

IEA is predicting strong renewable growth in Africa. Renewable Energy in Africa Is Set to Surge by 2040, IEA Says

Renewables were going to "surge" in the developed world, too. And they did experience massive growth rates, yet they captured just a minuscule share of the energy pie. The IEA forecasts that growth in renewables will continue — led by hydro, wind and solar power — but the pace won’t be fast enough to offset the effects of expanding global economies and a growing worldwide population. That's what I said in 2004, and, to date, I have been correct in that prediction. While oil and coal use will decline, they still see FF"S as the dominant energy source through 2040, as just 50% of new energy demand will be met by renewables, up from 25% in 2018. While that's good, it is too little too late.

[REAL Green]

Heat pumps are a great option in certain climates. However they don't do so well in severe cold.

I Live in NW Missouri where it often goes well below zero in the winter. My mini-split heat pump does just fine.

I have a Daikin mini split. My solar system with batteries and inverter runs my mini spilt wonderfully. I highly recommend these units if you have a solar system with batteries and inverter. I can heat and cool with it which is handy. I can zone cool so I can throttle power demand to meet cloud conditions.

[MonteQuest]

Heat pumps are a great option in certain climates. However they don't do so well in severe cold.

I Live in NW Missouri where it often goes well below zero in the winter. My mini-split heat pump does just fine.

I have a Daikin mini split. My solar system with batteries and inverter runs my mini spilt wonderfully. I highly recommend these units if you have a solar system with batteries and inverter. I can heat and cool with it which is handy. I can zone cool so I can throttle power demand to meet cloud conditions.

Mine has a 12v inverter that improves efficiency.

[REAL Green]

Heat pumps are a great option in certain climates. However they don't do so well in severe cold.

I Live in NW Missouri where it often goes well below zero in the winter. My mini-split heat pump does just fine.

I have a Daikin mini split. My solar system with batteries and inverter runs my mini spilt wonderfully. I highly recommend these units if you have a solar system with batteries and inverter. I can heat and cool with it which is handy. I can zone cool so I can throttle power demand to meet cloud conditions.

Mine has a 12v inverter that improves efficiency.

I would like to have a DC model if there are any so the inverter can be bypassed.

[ralfy]

In general, most people of the world need more fossil fuels and minerals not just for renewable energy but also for infrastructure, etc., as part of basic needs. That will require the equivalent of up to one more earth.

However, they are part of a global economy that's capitalist and based on competition, which means they want to have middle class conveniences, too, and so do the global middle class and rich that are counting on them to earn and buy because their own income, businesses, and investments are dependent on increasing sales. The resources need to back that are equivalent to several more earths.

This does not yet factor in increasing population, increasing credit, damage caused to the environment, the effects of global warming, and so forth.

[kublikhan]

Despite COVID-19, US moves forward with it's biggest Solar PV project ever.

The U.S. Department of the Interior approved this week the biggest solar project in the United States ever—an estimated US$1-billion solar plus battery storage project in Nevada. The project will consist of a 690-MW photovoltaic solar electric generating facility plus a battery storage facility.

The Gemini project is expected to be built in two phases, with the first phase coming online in 2021 and final completion as early as 2022. The on-site construction workforce is expected to average 500 to 700 workers, with a peak of up to 900 workers, supporting up to an additional 1,100 jobs in the local community and injecting an estimated US$712.5 million into the economy in wages and total output during construction, the Interior said, at a time when more than 20 million Americans have already lost their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The solar industry is resilient and a project like this one will bring jobs and private investment to the state when we need it most. We appreciate the work that the Trump Administration has done to make this historic project a reality.”

Trump Administration Approves Largest U.S. Solar Project Ever

[MonteQuest]

Despite COVID-19, US moves forward with it's biggest Solar PV project ever.

Gemini solar Project

[MonteQuest]

The project will consist of a 690-MW photovoltaic solar electric generating facility plus a battery storage facility.

It will use lithium-ion battery storage.

Euan Mearns says that “Renewable energy storage is an impossible dream and will remain so until there is a major technology breakthrough.”

Grid-Scale Storage of Renewable Energy: The Impossible Dream

[MonteQuest]

This chart reflects the investment in energy in 2018. It’s really a battle between fossil fuels and modern renewables of wind, solar PV, and geothermal/biomass. Nuclear and hydro are marginal players. 2019's data will be out in June.

[MonteQuest]

This chart reflects why I focus on modern renewables like wind, solar PV, and geothermal. Declines in investment and the Law of Diminishing returns are at play, which is reflected in the slowing of the growth rates in wind and solar from previous years.

[asg70]

Despite COVID-19, US moves forward with it's biggest Solar PV project ever.

Gemini solar Project

Pick your poison.

https://www.nrdc.org/stories/fossil-fuels-dirty-facts

[MonteQuest]

Despite COVID-19, US moves forward with it's biggest Solar PV project ever.

Gemini solar Project

Pick your poison.

https://www.nrdc.org/stories/fossil-fuels-dirty-facts

It's not a binary choice. And it's not even a choice about which energy to embrace. The world will eventually run on renewables by default. What kind of society that can support on a sustainable basis is the question we must decide. It certainly won't be this one. We face a bottleneck.

[asg70]

It's not a binary choice. And it's not even a choice about which energy to embrace.

Then why are you leaning on NIMBY FUD?

[kublikhan]

This chart reflects why I focus on modern renewables like wind, solar PV, and geothermal. Declines in investment and the Law of Diminishing returns are at play, which is reflected in the slowing of the growth rates in wind and solar from previous years.

Actually investments increased in 2019. And it's not about dollars invested, It's about capacity installed. Investments only increased 1% in 2019 but annual increase in wind and solar increased 13%. This is because wind and solar costs decreased.

* Global spending in green energy up 1% to $282 billion
Global money flowing into the industry totaled $282.2 billion last year, up 1% from 2018. Despite the modest rise in investment, falling costs of wind and solar power ensured a healthy increase in capacity to 180 gigawatts, an annual increase of 13%.

Wind and solar energy are now the cheapest forms of power in two-thirds of the world. In its New Energy Outlook 2019, the research firm said the globe will be 50% powered by renewable energy by 2037. The firm has credited “sweeping technological advances and more efficient manufacturing” as the reason for wind and solar’s increasingly important role in the global energy mix.

Cheapest power sources: 2014 to now
Ten years ago, when wind and solar were just 1% of the US’ energy mix, it would have seemed unrealistic to envision renewables replacing fossil fuels. Yet, this April marked the first time that renewable energy supplied more power to the US grid than coal, showing that solar and wind have certainly stepped up to the plate.

Low build costs spark renewables shift
Electricity generation has traditionally been the world’s biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, but since 2016, US power plants have given off less carbon dioxide than the nation’s transportation sector, Bloomberg reported. According to the news wire, wind and solar farms are a major reason for the turnaround, with cheaper parts making these projects more economical to build than coal and gas plants across two-thirds of the world. “Solar photovoltaic modules, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries are set to continue on aggressive cost reduction curves, of 28%, 14% and 18% respectively, for every doubling in global installed capacit. By 2030, the energy generated or stored and dispatched by these three technologies will undercut electricity generated by existing coal and gas plants almost everywhere.”

Global growth trend
However, BloombergNEF has forecast that by 2050 two-thirds of the world will be run on zero-carbon energy, with wind and solar supplying 48% of global electricity by that time. Specifically, solar is expected to rise from its current 2% of world electricity generation to 22% in 2050, while wind is anticipated to climb from today’s 5% to 26%. In addition, the report found batteries, peakers and dynamic demand will help wind and solar reach more than 80% penetration in some markets.

Global investment
According to the report, US$13.3 trillion (A$19.45 trillion) will be invested in new power generation assets over the next 32 years to 2050, with 77% (US$10.24 trillion) expected to go to renewables. The majority of the investments will be in wind and solar, with US$843 billion estimated to go toward batteries. This investment total will fund 15,145GW of new power plants between 2019 and 2050, of which 80% is zero carbon.

Wind and solar energy now cheapest forms of power in two-thirds of the world

It will use lithium-ion battery storage. Euan Mearns says that “Renewable energy storage is an impossible dream and will remain so until there is a major technology breakthrough.”

Switching over to 100% wind, solar, and storage in the short to medium term is impractical. However the US does have a shortage of storage capacity relative to the rest of the world. This is not even talking about renewable needs for storage, just the grid in general. So I think storage needs to increase. Personally I am not a big fan of lithium-ion for grid storage. I think pumped hydro, CES, flow batteries, etc are all better options. There was even talk of converting the Hoover Dam into a giant battery for grid storage. But we need to add something. However even with that having backup/peaker fossil fuels plants is inevitable. It is far cheaper to have moderate amounts of storage and a good amount of fossil fuel backup.

[MonteQuest]

Here’s an example of the misleading headlines I see so often.

“In a First, Renewable Energy Is Poised to Eclipse Coal in U.S.”

Yes, but not because renewable growth will overtake it, but that coal will be taken off-line in lieu of cheaper NG and renewables. Renewable energy is typically dispatched whenever it is available because of its low operating cost.
EIA forecasts that total U.S. electric power sector generation will decline by 5% in 2020. Most of the expected decline in electricity supply is reflected in lower fossil fuel generation, especially at coal-fired power plants. EIA forecasts U.S. average coal consumption will decrease by 23% in 2020. The decrease is primarily driven by a 24% decline in electric power sector consumption and persistently low natural gas prices. When electricity demand returns, so will much of coal’s participation. Although the EIA expects wind and solar generation to increase this year, many projects will be put on hold as supply chains are disrupted.