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The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Apr 2020, 20:07:41

REAL Green wrote:I don't agree with that outsourcing point if you are talking the last decade.


No, I meant as you wrote. They have been flat because of the GFC and a decline in GDP that affected US manufacturing.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 28 Apr 2020, 20:12:18

MonteQuest wrote:I remember back in 2004 when modern renewables were only .5% of our primary energy and everyone was giving me shit for saying they weren't going to capture a significant share of the energy pie anytime soon. And here we are 16 years later and they have only increased that share 1.5%.


Renewables will likely stall out if we head into a hard recession. They do make sense in some application but these ideas of a Green New Deal and Europe’s 100% renewable push by 2050 seems like lots of hopium. The economics and the physics don’t add up. The primary power numbers are not great but I am impressed with European Electricity penetration by renewables. Yet, even here, Europe is getting to that zone where intermittency drives cost up because storage and grid upgrades are needed. The US still has some good sweet spots to fill and the grid penetration in many areas is still low allowing more penetration. The Midwest where I live has lots of room for more wind. That was before this pandemic shock. It is hard to say what is going to happen now. Fossil fuels are dirt cheap and demand has been crushed. That is not a great business plan starter. Yet, let’s say we have a U-shaped recovery and green policy push. There is more green growth ahead in this scenario but modest growth not the 100% transition kind. IMO.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Apr 2020, 20:42:36

Plantagenet wrote:One could imagine.....just barely.....that the US could go on a "war footing" and spend whatever it takes to attempt to end fossil fuel use and shift to renewables.


Using what for an energy source to build the renewables? It also appears that the EROEI of renewables is too low to support the complex industrial society necessary to produce and maintain them. Renewables that produce electricity also don't address transportation fuel and heating demand which is 75% of primary demand. We also don't have the grid capacity to move renewable power if we had it. I have 155 large wind turbines 5 miles south of me. They often are not turning. I asked them why, and they said the line capacity does not exist to move the power generated. Just part of the boondoggle hype to sell wind turbines without the infrastructure to support them.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Apr 2020, 20:50:34

REAL Green wrote:Europe’s 100% renewable push by 2050 seems like lots of hopium. The Midwest where I live has lots of room for more wind. That was before this pandemic shock. It is hard to say what is going to happen now. Fossil fuels are dirt cheap and demand has been crushed. That is not a great business plan starter. Yet, let’s say we have a U-shaped recovery and green policy push. There is more green growth ahead in this scenario but modest growth not the 100% transition kind. IMO.


Europe's 100% renewable push is just for electricity. That's 25-28% of energy demand. I live in NW Missouri. Over two hundred wind turbines within eyesight. They often sit idle due to a lack of line capacity to move the power. I see no V, or even a U shaped recovery. More like an L. With oil this cheap, it will be used to fuel any attempt at a recovery.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 06:38:56

MonteQuest wrote: Europe's 100% renewable push is just for electricity. That's 25-28% of energy demand. I live in NW Missouri. Over two hundred wind turbines within eyesight. They often sit idle due to a lack of line capacity to move the power. I see no V, or even a U shaped recovery. More like an L. With oil this cheap, it will be used to fuel any attempt at a recovery.


I don't believe it is just electricity but I will have to review my notes. Europe is moving to phase out ICE vehicles. A big push is for alternative heating like heat pumps.

Well I am a doomer "lite" so when I say U shaped recovery it is a recovery back to something less. I am also hedging there saying "if" becuase nobody knows at this point if everything will click into place to recover at all. That is just the general feeling and feelings are emotional. I don't see a collapse. This has never happened before not even in 08. That was a Minsky moment of systematic financial failure not a demand shock. Demand was appearing to shut down but after a few months of central bank servicing the crisis a new bubble was inflated.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 08:31:14

I think most of us can agree that renewables should be used to replace fossil fuels, not augment them.

I think most of us can agree that there is a great deal of waste in our systems and that we should be looking hard at ways to become more efficient, less consumptive. Reduce, reuse, recycle.

I understand the lure of the arguments on how best to do this or that but we are not even doing the easy stuff. Hell, we are not even understanding the problem. And that is one of education that we need to be able to live within budgets. Energy budgets, carbon budgets, water budgets, etc.

These are baby steps to sustainability and we are not even crawling.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 09:07:58

And when we look at renewable electricity, we still see a minuscule contribution from modern renewables despite massive growth rates in wind and solar installed capacity. Image
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 09:33:58

It is now 12 years that our pelton wheel has churned out 8KW 24/7. In these 12 years we had to fix the penstock once when a tree fell on it, we had to change the bearings one time and we had to change the belt that connects the pelton wheen to the generator twice. That was the total maintenance in 12 years. Our power is more reliable than the local grid that goes down frequently. The initial investment has now paid for itself.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 09:40:01

REAL Green wrote:I don't believe it is just electricity but I will have to review my notes. Europe is moving to phase out ICE vehicles. A big push is for alternative heating like heat pumps.


It is. I did read one article that was trying to include heating and cooling. This is one of my pet peeves about most articles on renewable energy. You often read 100% renewable "power" or "energy" in the headlines, but in actuality, it means 100% renewable "electricity." Yes, Europe hopes to phase out many ICE vehicles, but they aren't getting rid of diesel trucks, heavy equipment, ships, and jet fuel airplanes--which would have to happen to be 100% renewable. As to heat pumps, very few homes have heat pumps. It would take a long time to phase out FF use and retrofit houses--especially with cheap NG. Not sure of the numbers in Europe, but in the US it's only about 1%. Here's the penetration into heating, cooling, and transport by renewables. Note: While the header reads 2016, it is 2019 numbers--see at the bottom.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 10:02:01

REAL Green wrote:Well I am a doomer "lite" so when I say U shaped recovery it is a recovery back to something less. I am also hedging there saying "if" becuase nobody knows at this point if everything will click into place to recover at all. That is just the general feeling and feelings are emotional. I don't see a collapse. This has never happened before not even in 08. That was a Minsky moment of systematic financial failure not a demand shock. Demand was appearing to shut down but after a few months of central bank servicing the crisis a new bubble was inflated.


Oh, I agree that no one knows how this will end or what degree of recovery there will be or when. But as economist Mark Thornton points out, “The coronavirus did not cause the economic crisis; it merely triggered it, causing it to occur earlier than it would have. Despite stellar numbers in the stock market and an all-time low unemployment rate, the US economy was already headed for an economic crisis; we could clearly see that many consumers could barely pay their bills and had virtually no savings to rely on. The viral pandemic merely triggered or revealed what was ultimately going to happen.”

“Too many people are focused on the pin and are ignoring the bubble that the pin pricked. You know, before the COVID-19 shutdown, the economy was long overdue for a severe recession, and the US stock market was long overdue for a bear market. So, I think the COVID virus simply accelerated the onset of both. … So I would not get excited about this rally. I think we still have a long way to go on the downside. And the economy, I think, is going to be even worse.”—Economist Peter Schiff

I don't see any way that this bubble can be reinflated, thus a L-shaped recovery at best.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 10:07:50

Newfie wrote:I think most of us can agree that there is a great deal of waste in our systems and that we should be looking hard at ways to become more efficient, less consumptive. Reduce, reuse, recycle.


And therein lies our conundrum. Our system only works in one direction-growth. Conservation is a deathknell. It reduces economic activity. Efficiency gains leads to greater use-Jevons' Paradox. And there is no waste in our system that isn't paid for before it is wasted--it's part of the economy.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 10:12:14

Ibon wrote:It is now 12 years that our pelton wheel has churned out 8KW 24/7. In these 12 years we had to fix the penstock once when a tree fell on it, we had to change the bearings one time and we had to change the belt that connects the pelton wheen to the generator twice. That was the total maintenance in 12 years. Our power is more reliable than the local grid that goes down frequently. The initial investment has now paid for itself.


Too bad the world can't run on that simple scale. However, one day we may have to. In the USA, we are barely seeing modern renewable penetration. I have 155 large wind turbines 5 miles south of my farm that often sit idle due to lack of transmission line capacity to move the power.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 10:43:09

MonteQuest wrote:
Newfie wrote:I think most of us can agree that there is a great deal of waste in our systems and that we should be looking hard at ways to become more efficient, less consumptive. Reduce, reuse, recycle.


And therein lies our conundrum. Our system only works in one direction-growth. Conservation is a deathknell. It reduces economic activity. Efficiency gains leads to greater use-Jevons' Paradox. And there is no waste in our system that isn't paid for before it is wasted--it's part of the economy.


Exactly, and that means we must change the system.

Very, very, very few are open to that concept.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 11:14:46

Newfie wrote:Exactly, and that means we Miller change the system.

Very, very, very few are open to that concept.


Easier said than done, regardless of a willingness to do so. Our world-wide fiat debt-based money system requires growth to exist. We have $250 trillion in outstanding debt. And if we don't grow, each year the per capita share of what is produced shrinks as the population grows.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Sweeney » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 12:16:18

I think that Americans should be able to reduce their energy usage to European levels without too much pain. It would be a good start, rather than simply blaming the Chinese or the Indians whilst continuing to use more energy per capita than anybody else.
In the long term we all simply have to use much less energy, maybe even get used to having intermittent power supplies. Check out Kris De Dekker's arguments for this on his LowTech Magazine site.
Here in France the government has said that in about 9 years it will no longer be possible to buy heating oil. I expect that that will lead to the installation of a huge number of electric heat-pump systems. Our 1970s house still has oil-fired central heating; I'm hoping the government will eventually offer subsidies for swapping it out. They have already been running a huge scheme subsidizing the installation of insulation in lofts.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby C8 » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 12:44:39

MonteQuest wrote:
Ibon wrote:It is now 12 years that our pelton wheel has churned out 8KW 24/7. In these 12 years we had to fix the penstock once when a tree fell on it, we had to change the bearings one time and we had to change the belt that connects the pelton wheen to the generator twice. That was the total maintenance in 12 years. Our power is more reliable than the local grid that goes down frequently. The initial investment has now paid for itself.


Too bad the world can't run on that simple scale. However, one day we may have to. In the USA, we are barely seeing modern renewable penetration. I have 155 large wind turbines 5 miles south of my farm that often sit idle due to lack of transmission line capacity to move the power.
Image


That's an amazing slide. It seems solar and wind account for only 3% of the total- 3% !!!. I can remember 10 years ago when greens were touting massive gains in renewable technology that would make it self sustaining in a decade- this clearly hasn't happened. We are used to rapid changes in computing, sensing, chemicals, etc. and it has conditioned us to believe that every field can transform, but it looks like laws of energy are a hard brick wall to run against.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby C8 » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 12:53:46

Sweeney wrote:Here in France the government has said that in about 9 years it will no longer be possible to buy heating oil. I expect that that will lead to the installation of a huge number of electric heat-pump systems. Our 1970s house still has oil-fired central heating; I'm hoping the government will eventually offer subsidies for swapping it out. They have already been running a huge scheme subsidizing the installation of insulation in lofts.


I am thinking that France and other European nations are going to go more into renewable energy for a little while longer. But the high costs and general economic malaise will force them to sharply reverse course. I am not sure France will be able to afford those subsidies you hope for. (where in France are you BTW?)

Unemployment is rocketing and many European nations already had permanent massive unemployment before the virus. As the number of refugees increases and social welfare costs escalate, I doubt the EU will be able to continue to afford an energy transition. Europe seems like a group of old people who can no longer keep the crowd from coming through its doors. The newcomers would much rather have cheap energy than green energy.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby C8 » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 12:56:49

MonteQuest wrote:
Newfie wrote:Exactly, and that means we Miller change the system.

Very, very, very few are open to that concept.


Easier said than done, regardless of a willingness to do so. Our world-wide fiat debt-based money system requires growth to exist. We have $250 trillion in outstanding debt. And if we don't grow, each year the per capita share of what is produced shrinks as the population grows.


This is where green is destroyed by GREEN
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 13:05:38

Sweeney wrote:I think that Americans should be able to reduce their energy usage to European levels without too much pain.


That’s highly doubtful. The population density of Europe results in per capita energy production being one fifth of the USA. We have long-distance travel and shipping and greater penetration of air-conditioning.

Sweeney wrote:Here in France the government has said that in about 9 years it will no longer be possible to buy heating oil. I expect that that will lead to the installation of a huge number of electric heat-pump systems.


In the US, only about 1% of households have electric heat pumps. In the EU it's about 11%. Be interesting to see how this will all be funded.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 13:13:29

C8 wrote:That's an amazing slide. It seems solar and wind account for only 3% of the total- 3% !!!. I can remember 10 years ago when greens were touting massive gains in renewable technology that would make it self sustaining in a decade- this clearly hasn't happened.


What many people miss is that despite the massive growth rates in wind and solar installed capacity in the last decade, the new demand for energy nearly outstrips all gains. EROEI plays a huge role as well. It wasn't until 2014 that the EROEI of solar PV went positive.
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