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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Greater Recession vs. Peak Oil (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

What scares you more?

The Great Recession
7
50%
Peak Oil
5
36%
"You're gunna need a bigger boat..."
2
14%
 
Total votes : 14

Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby Quinny » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 00:10:16

Do you see a difference between NWO and One World Government?

Armageddon wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
Chuckmak wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The NWO is going as planned.


and whose plan will ultimately fail.


This sounds like dialogue for a bad B-movie. You guys have to reconnect with reality. This dimestore clairvoyance about presuming to know the hidden thoughts and motivations of shifty characters behind closed doors is tiresome.





I guess you missed the EU President admit this year was going to be the beginning of the one world government

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=116902
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 03:53:53

PrestonSturges wrote: it's conservative dogma that some shifty brown skinned minorities in the US got subprime mortgages and this somehow crashed the global economy.


it's liberal dogma that some shifty white skinned speculators drove up the price of oil. :roll:
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby katkinkate » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 04:15:58

Plantagenet wrote:
PrestonSturges wrote: it's conservative dogma that some shifty brown skinned minorities in the US got subprime mortgages and this somehow crashed the global economy.


it's liberal dogma that some shifty white skinned speculators drove up the price of oil. :roll:


No, the liberal dogma is that some shifty white-skinned banker conned the poor brown-skinned minorities into buying above their means to set things up so they could steal everyone's money.
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby IslandCrow » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 06:37:22

Back to the subject title ... is part of the problem that we are seeking for simplistic answers, when life is more complex?

Is it too hard to accept that there might be multiple causes for the recession and not just a single one?

Taking the old saying "The last straw broke the camel's back".... we are looking for 'the last straw' and ignoring the whole pile of straw already there.

With the run up in oil prices, I am sure that added a lot of strain to the system, but oil prices and shortage of the physical stuff can not be blamed for people taking on far too much debt in the years before the peak in convential oil production.
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby efarmer » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 21:45:39

I have a friend who believe the Rapture will suck him out of the deal
before it gets really bad.

I used to find him a bit annoying but now I call him more often.
He thinks he is converting me, but I am really just making sure
he is still here, playing the canary for this here grateful "coal miner".
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 22:30:33

efarmer wrote:I have a friend who believe the Rapture will suck him out of the deal
before it gets really bad.



Talk about a lack of humility! Wow!

8O
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 22:42:41

It's funny how the words rapture and trinity aren't even in the Bible. Pagan beliefs at their finest.
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby Golgo13 » Mon 14 Dec 2009, 15:07:03

efarmer wrote:I have a friend who believe the Rapture will suck him out of the deal
before it gets really bad.


Tell him I have a special going on where I'll manage his estate and see to it that those he cares about that didn't get taken are provided for in the event of Rapture for the low price of $100 per month.

Our company is comprised of 100% bona-fide heathens, so there's no concern about us being taken and unable to provide service.

We cover pets as well, so they will be adequately provided for in his Rapture-induced absence.
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby leaflight » Tue 15 Dec 2009, 04:14:40

peak credit and bonds and property taxes caused the problem, and when the bubbles of these three bust
its a crash+ and burn+ and perish+ for such systems as this.

Rome before fell just because of the taxes bubble busting out from underneath them.

Think about credit and bonds and property taxes busting and drying up like dust and rust.All at the same time perfect storm beyond the norm.

Cows and bees milk and honey is a more patient content of a socialistic/captiol system , but then again they are not divided in thier purpose or goals that they have as well.

Also thier is no real bulls and bears market its bubbles to bubbles market till they bust, and dry up like dust and rust.

8O :mrgreen:
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Also Oregano oil for staph etc, parsely for lung cancer etc, tumeric for tumor cells etc, milk thistle for liver kidney and brain rejuvenation and detoxification and protection research it?
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 23 Dec 2009, 01:20:58

mos6507 wrote:This sounds like dialogue for a bad B-movie. You guys have to reconnect with reality. This dimestore clairvoyance about presuming to know the hidden thoughts and motivations of shifty characters behind closed doors is tiresome.
Wow, there are thousands of webby discussions that would benefit from this comment.

But, shouldn't it be "dollarstore" ?
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Re: The recession due to PEAK OIL not housing

Unread postby eastbay » Wed 23 Dec 2009, 01:28:33

In 10 years it'll be '10 Dollar Stores'. Or 'Hundred Dollar Stores'.
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The Greater Recession vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby Pops » Tue 13 Jul 2010, 17:13:50

So I'm taking the position the recession is still going strong.
[a recession is defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP which counts all sorts of negative activity as if it were a good thing. Things like oil spill clean up, military spending, unemployment insurance purchases and borrowed stimulus spending are counted as positive; and all sorts of other activity such as unemployment itself and inflationary/deflationary effects on home and savings equity aren't subtracted. So I'm gonna say the GDP number is bunk.]

I'm also going to say the (Dem) government will soon be forced to either bail out municipalities - up to and including entire states; in order to - you guessed it, prevent a systemic failure of the banks and funds holding muni bonds - OR - (Repubs in the next congress) will allow the unions, pensions, retirement savers and bankers to all take a really big, zero-turn, riding mower sized haircut on municipal bonds.

So either the Dems are going to be borrowing right up against what might turn out to be Uncle Sugar's credit limit to bail out the unions and banks or the 'Pubs are going to toss the red Astro Turfing fat cats under the bus 'cuz the 'Party told 'em so.

.
So what scares you more today, the second "L" or "PO"?

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Re: The Greater Recession vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby the48thronin » Tue 13 Jul 2010, 17:54:49

It is too late to be scared..

We wait to see the form, the collapse is already underway and is unstoppable.
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Re: The Greater Recession vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby Pops » Wed 14 Jul 2010, 13:54:02

I feel the spirit of MOS somewhere just beyond my screen scowling at my pathetic attempts at adapting ...
:lol: :wink:

Anyway, I agree, pstar, it is all the same thing but I think many peakers are so caught up in the
We'll Freeze • We'll Starve! • We'll Walk! • We'll all go Max!
angle of PO to see that the real world effects will likely be hidden in their personal economy.

I could easily see the exact same situation we have today stretching out for years with no new headlines, just a continuing, flat or downhill trend in all areas of the economy as everyone retrenches and no one has the cajones to put anything on the line. The 'Pubs take over the congress and with their recently rediscovered commitment to austerity firmly waffle their way to Hoverizing the economy, the various wars wind down, vastly reducing another sector of the economy; the municipalities and states default on bonds and/or are forced to actually prune masses of union work-rule protected dead wood ...

I mean, look at the Dow Jones, all the usual puffers are puffing as hard as they can to make believe that it's all ahead full because the markets are up. Well what is to be expected? Utilization is far from 100%, payrolls are way down, no one is spending money on capital expansion projects or presumably R&D either. I saw that Alcoa had a great showing on their reporting period and their stock did well - but their R&D and capital outlays are in the toilet, you can only downsize your way to profitability so long.

In short, the economy here and abroad simply muddles into decline for the foreseeable future.

In which case demand for fossil fuels will continue to erode at or perhaps even faster than depletion and so energy prices may not move much at all. Of course that would stifle any push into alternatives just as the worldwide drilling boom of the '80s depressed oil prices in the '90s.


So yea, I agree with your synopsis, but what good is trading-in the Silverado 4x4 on a plug-in EV if the price of diesel isn't going to double or triple for 10 or 15 years but your job is gonna crash?
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Declining energy quality could be root cause of recession

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 30 Nov 2010, 20:09:57

Declining energy quality could be root cause of current recession

An overlooked cause of the economic recession in the U.S. is a decade long decline in the quality of the nation's energy supply, often measured as the amount of energy we get out for a given energy input, says energy expert Carey King of The University of Texas at Austin.

Many economists have pointed to a bursting real estate bubble as the initial trigger for the current recession, which in turn caused global investments in U.S. real estate to turn sour and drag down the global economy. King suggests the real estate bubble burst because individuals were forced to pay a higher and higher percentage of their income for energy—including electricity, gasoline and heating oil—leaving less money for their home mortgages.

In economic terms, the quality of the nation's energy supply is referred to as Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI). For example, if an oil company uses a 10th of a barrel of oil to drill, pump, transport and refine one barrel of oil, the EROI for the refined fuel is 10.

"Many economists don't think of energy as being a limiting factor to economic growth," says King, a research associate in the university's Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy. "They think continual improvements in technology and efficiency have completely decoupled the two factors. My research is part of a growing body of evidence that says that's just not true. Energy still plays a big role."


To get the U.S. economy growing again, King says Americans will have to produce and use energy more efficiently. That's essentially what the U.S. did after the last energy crisis by raising fuel efficiency standards for cars, increasing use of natural gas for electric power generation and developing new technologies such as Enhanced Oil Recovery to coax more oil out of the ground.


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Declining energy quality could be cause of current recession

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 02:58:17

Declining energy quality could be root cause of current recession
Image

The worst recessions of the last 65 years were preceded by declines in energy quality for oil, natural gas, and coal. Energy quality is plotted using the energy intensity ratio (EIR) for each fuel. Recessions are indicated by gray bars. In layman's terms, EIR measures how much profit is obtained by energy consumers relative to energy producers.The higher the EIR, the more economic value consumers (including businesses, governments and people) get from their energy. Credit: Carey King
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Re: Declining energy quality could be cause of current reces

Unread postby sparky » Thu 02 Dec 2010, 17:33:17

.

That seems about right , statistics usually mention raw extraction tonnage not effective use
same for Oil the pumping numbers are fine but the real number is the quantities effectively traded
on the international market
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Re: Declining energy quality could be root cause of recessio

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 02 Dec 2010, 17:38:09

Graeme wrote:Declining energy quality could be root cause of current recession



To get the U.S. economy growing again, King says Americans will have to produce and use energy more efficiently. That's essentially what the U.S. did after the last energy crisis by raising fuel efficiency standards for cars, increasing use of natural gas for electric power generation and developing new technologies such as Enhanced Oil Recovery to coax more oil out of the ground.


We also developed the Prudhoe Bay oil fields and the Brits and Norweigians developed the North Sea oil fields after the 1970s energy crises----they helped a bit too.
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