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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 13:54:22

yellowcanoe wrote:
Tanada wrote: In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


Maybe things are different in the US, but here in Ontario farm land has reverted back to forest primarily where the soil was too thin and nutrient poor to sustain farming.


In the USA east of the Mississippi it has been mostly small farms going out of business because they can not compete economically with corporate farms that use the same equipment over ten thousand acres that a 320 acre farm would need amortizing the costs and using hired labor vs family labor in many cases. Those farms that remain in my area are mostly cases of where the most successful small farmer in an area has bought up neighboring farmland as smaller farms went into bankruptcy so that they have collectively large parcels of land except it is separated into small parcels interspersed with other farm parcels from other successful farmer who have followed the same practice. Further west in the Great Plains the corporate farms are generally adjoining properties instead of being interspersed so the corporate farm can start harvesting on say the southeast corner of the property and keep going until they reach the north west corner without having to skip over other parcels. Here in Ohio a farmer has a 25 acre lot here and then two interspersed plots then another 50 acre plot and so on scattered over 10 miles of territory but totally up into a thousand acre farm more or less. When we need to put those eastern fallow lands back in service (when it becomes profitable) because earths population is still rapidly growing someone will lumber those fallow lots and put them back into productive use. Depending on circumstances they might even get government assistance through use of eminent domain practices to create consolidated large acreage farms by forcing the remaining small farms to all sell to a corporate large entity to force the farming east of the Mississippi to morph into strong resemblance of the western farm practices.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 13 Sep 2018, 22:19:52

Tanada wrote:
Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


The greater yields also involve mechanized agriculture.

Also, the global population does not thrive on food alone. Likely, the Green Revolution was coupled with mass manufacturing, leading to extensive production not just of food but of medicine, construction materials, and many other components used for industrial civilization and distributed through extensive supply chains, and it is that civilization on a global scale that led to the world population increasing significantly from 1945 to the present.

Finally, even if the current population operates entirely through ecovillages, it might still be in overshoot.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 10:33:50

GHung wrote:
Tanada wrote:Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


By whom? Bank tellers? Smartphone salesman? Tax preparers?


Farmers.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Sep 2018, 10:48:24

Tanada wrote:
GHung wrote:
Tanada wrote:Modern wheat, rice and maize are not the same plants we were growing in 1918, all three have been bread to produce far greater yields than their century ago versions. In addition to that reality a great deal of fully viable crop land in North America has been allowed to return to fallow/wild status in the last half century of megafarm style agriculture. Half the farms from Maine to Minnesota have been allowed to go back to woodlot since 1972 when Federal policy was changed to encourage mega corporate farms vs family operations. All of that land is still there and still viable farmland and if people need to grow more food it will be put back into production.


By whom? Bank tellers? Smartphone salesman? Tax preparers?


Farmers.


I've seen stats that, over the last century, the percentage of Americans that are farmers has declined from upwards of 25% to less than 2%. Methinks we are going to need a lot more farmers, especially if the massive energy and chemical subsidies that support the so-called 'green revolution' go into a big decline. Just sayin'. Yes, some folks can grow a little food to supplement their diets, but I see a problem of scale, and a problem of societal entitlement (WHAT???! Me? Grow food?)

Maybe we can implement a movement; Smartphones to plowshares, eh?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 15 Sep 2018, 06:25:49

Some things can change reasonable fast. For the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the BBC has been running a series of articles about it and its aftermath....One includes the following, which in my opinion is caused by a wider (and unexpected) change in society.

Note: This just relates to the States.

1. We have fewer children, if we have them at all

In the decade since the recession, American women had 4.8 million fewer babies than demographers were expecting.

No, that isn't a typo.

"Every year when I look at the fertility data I expect the number of births to go up and it hasn't," says University of New Hampshire Professor Kenneth Johnson.

Prof Johnson says part of the fertility decline is attributable to women in their early and late 20s having fewer children than expected - in other words, my classmates and those who came after us.

And it's not getting better. The gap is getting wider - which is why he brings up a historical parallel.....


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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45478670
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 18 Sep 2018, 17:35:30

the population is growing rapidly in New Zealand

https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/population
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 24 Sep 2018, 15:44:08

Malaria Mosquitoes Eliminated In Lab Experiments; Humans Next

This is the first time experiments have been able to completely block the reproductive capacity of a complex organism in the laboratory using a designer molecular approach.

The team's results, published today in Nature Biotechnology, represent the first time gene drive has been able to completely suppress a population, overcoming resistance issues previous approaches have faced.

The team engineered a gene drive solution designed to selectively alter a region of the doublesex gene that is responsible for female development. Males who carried this modified gene showed no changes, and neither did females with only one copy of the modified gene. However, females with two copies of the modified gene showed both male and female characteristics, failed to bite and did not lay eggs.
Their experiments showed that the gene drive transmitted the genetic modification nearly 100% of the time. After eight generations no females were produced and the populations collapsed because of lack of offspring.


Kyros Kyrou et al. A CRISPR–Cas9 gene drive targeting doublesex causes complete population suppression in caged Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, Nature Biotechnology (2018).

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If past malaria-eradication campaigns have taught us anything (see: 1950s, DDT), it is that reshaping the environment can have unintended consequences.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... ia/570937/
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 24 Sep 2018, 18:03:22

We have been reshaping the Environment ever since the Agricultural Revolution about 10000 years ago. We really took it into overdrive with the Industrial Revolution and especially since WWII, with Big Pharma and Mass Consumerism and the development of thousands of exotic chemical combinations and formulations.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 25 Sep 2018, 13:06:44

Yeah, we may now be able to eradicate human population within five generations. I think global warming will beat it to the punchline, though.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 16:51:54

Tommorow's Population Will Be Larger, Heavier and Eat More

(That is, until the point that it crashes...and while some grow fatter, others will be wasting away)

... An average adult in 2014 was 14 percent heavier, about 1.3 percent taller, 6.2 percent older, and needed 6.1 percent more energy than in 1975. Researchers expect this trend to continue for most countries.

"An average global adult consumed 2465 kilocalories per day in 1975. In 2014, the average adult consumed 2615 kilocalories," says Vita.

Globally, human consumption increased by 129 percent during this time span. Population growth was responsible for 116 percent, while increased weight and height accounted for 15 percent. Older people need a little less food, but an ageing population results in only two percent less consumption.

"The additional 13 percent corresponds to the needs of 286 million people," Vásquez says.

This in turn corresponds approximately to the food needs of Indonesia and Scandinavia combined.


https://m.phys.org/news/2018-11-tommoro ... avier.html

thanks to vox for this, posted over at asif
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 16:55:25

I hate to bear bad tidings Vox_Mundi but mosquitos aren't humans. I just thought I would clear that up for you.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 17:12:04

"mosquitos aren't humans"

No, they aren't. But a gene is a gene...
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 17:23:01

So is eliminating malaria a good thing or a bad thing? Less malaria means more humans means more starvation. Ugly arguments.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 17:31:25

dohboi wrote:"mosquitos aren't humans"

No, they aren't. But a gene is a gene...



Genetic manipulation that affects the entire organism is much more difficult when you go from insects to the higher level mammals
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 17:39:49

Newfie wrote:So is eliminating malaria a good thing or a bad thing? Less malaria means more humans means more starvation. Ugly arguments.


In isolation that is an ugly argument. When coupled with self regulation of population then eliminating malaria would be wonderful.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 19:31:12

Since we have not mastered the “self regulation of population” it remains what is.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 16:39:24

Ever heard of gene replacement therapy? https://www.exploregenetherapy.com/abou ... nt-therapy



1. Gene replacement therapy starts with scientists creating a new, working copy of a missing or faulty gene.

2. Then the new gene is placed inside a vector. A vector acts like an envelope. It carries the gene to the right places throughout the body.

3. A vector can be created by making changes to a naturally occurring virus. A virus is selected as a vector because of its ability to enter the body. One such virus, called an adeno-associated virus, or AAV, is used because it is not known to cause sickness in people.

4. Next, the vector enters the body and carries the new gene to the control center of the cells, also known as the nucleus.

5. Once inside the nucleus, the new gene tells the body how to make the protein it needs. Finally, the rest of the vector is broken down by the body.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 13:23:32

dohboi wrote:Ever heard of gene replacement therapy? https://www.exploregenetherapy.com/abou ... nt-therapy



1. Gene replacement therapy starts with scientists creating a new, working copy of a missing or faulty gene.

2. Then the new gene is placed inside a vector. A vector acts like an envelope. It carries the gene to the right places throughout the body.

3. A vector can be created by making changes to a naturally occurring virus. A virus is selected as a vector because of its ability to enter the body. One such virus, called an adeno-associated virus, or AAV, is used because it is not known to cause sickness in people.

4. Next, the vector enters the body and carries the new gene to the control center of the cells, also known as the nucleus.

5. Once inside the nucleus, the new gene tells the body how to make the protein it needs. Finally, the rest of the vector is broken down by the body.


Of course to be truly efficient you need to do this with a person who is a newborn so that as they mature through childhood the new cells created by their body are the 'corrected' DNA version.

Naturally this also lets the possibility spring forward of early pregnancy alteration where wealthy individuals seek to give their own children all sorts of genetic advantages.

"Yes Doctor I want my child to be male, have the intelligence of Sheldon Cooper, the appearance of Don Johnson and the athletic capability of Dwayne Johnson, oh and throw in superior vision, hearing and repair the defective gene that makes vitamin C so they will never be subject to Scurvy..."

Once you start playing gene engineer where do you stop? What about people who want to play God and say switch out the skull/brain of a Gorilla with that of a human so you get a hybrid creature with Gorilla physique and human intelligence? We already share over 97% of our genes so its not like it would be a huge alteration to make 'smart gorilla' to work as your security force. After all a Gorilla is stronger, sprints faster, and is your natural Vegan diet follower. Give them human intelligence and modern equipment like guns and bullet resistant clothing and they would be super security for defending the compounds of the extremely wealthy, or bodyguards for political leaders. I can't claim that idea as my own, there was a secret attempt in 1930's USSR to breed super soldiers and part of NAZI Aryan race theory was that Nordic 'viking' types were superior soldiers. Bad ideas like these don't go away they just change form to match the times.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 15:23:21

Where would it all stop? With a bunch of 1%ers we could all hate.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 16:19:39

"Once you start playing gene engineer where do you stop? "The same could be said for many technologies. Once again, the problem is not technology per say but the flaws of humans individually and collectively. Our flaws, our emotions can lead us to misuse technology or overrely on it.
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