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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Re: How to reduce the population and other benefits the PC w

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 20:30:38

smallpoxgirl wrote:No longer Montana-bound. Now Montana-found. :-D
Hooray! You know that I care about your fortunes in that forbidding land. I even have an invite from you to visit. Keep us posted, dear.
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Re: How to reduce the population and other benefits the PC w

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 14:45:40

Congrats SPG! How's it feel? This was a peak inspired move? We're neighbours now, I"m across the border from you (and a little ways over)!
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Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 04 May 2010, 10:54:39

There have been many debates on this forum about population density & relative scenarios in a withering fossil fuel driven society.

The issues are incredibly complex. The ability of anyone to predict actual events as the oil age passes into history is severely limited. Our brains primarily work in terms of detecting and discerning patterns; we don't have a precedent for what is happening now on a global scale so our patterning systems of thought can only guess at scenarios.

A key thought of mine in the department of future planning is the question:

"In what scenario am I most likely to be able to sustain myself and my kin?"

This question leads me to dig into my deepest nature:

"What kind of person am I?" "What am I really capable of in order to ensure my own survival and that of my kin, beyond the coming bottleneck in the human population?"

Some of the conclusions are not pleasant. I have found in myself an ability to consider doing real evil for selfish purposes. I am not so naive as to think I am at all alone in this regard. So this leads me to the following conclusions (of sorts):

Given that myself and others have a propensity for devastating evil, in order to perpetuate our genes; I need to incorporate the following aspects into my mode(s) of living as the risks increase.

Flexibility in the most practical sense, this means mobility, independent of energy grids.

An ability to get away from everyone who I might eat or be eaten by.

An ability to find the needs of life without having to resort to evil.

As I have no desire to be a part of a militia or to have to guard my crops from maurauding zombies; I figure I need to be near to and familiar with a serious wilderness area. There are very few of these left anywhere in the world. The ones there are have dangers aplenty of their own.

Besides all this I have no desire to needlessly 'run off into the bush' before due time.
I enjoy petro reality, with all it's failings and built in redundancy.

So to sum up and go back to the thread title, for the time being, I work in the mainstream. I do so very close (more like surrounded by) one of the last pristine wilderness areas in the world. I learn as much as I can about the plants and animals, foods and medicines growing around me. If I go to anywhere highly populated I have an escape route in my mind all the time.

There are those who would say I am paranoid. My response is that if paranoia had not served me and my ancestors so well, my children would not be here and nor would I.

Everyone has their own response to these questions, if they have ever thought about them at all. This is just my personal reflection; my gut reaction to possible doom at the end of the oil age. I have no intention of laying down and dying just because the fantasy world created in it has ended. Nor do I wish to become a roaming zombie or a cannibal.

Least of all do I want to sit it out in part of the megalopolis, with zero control over what happens to me or my family. When the next Krystal nacht comes I am running like the wind, and I know where to.

Any reflections?
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby davep » Tue 04 May 2010, 11:33:03

I'm not sure if we're all capable of such evil. Some may prefer to die. But it's mere hypothesis, as neither of us have been put in that situation.

I'm also not sure you need to run off to pristine wilderness to survive.

Living in a fairly remote rural area (where everyone is packing) seems a good bet to me (well it would do, as that's what I've decided to do). If it involves being part of a militia, fair enough. What's your problem with helping out in communal defence?

I think I'd probably go mad if I was too isolated for a long period of time.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby WildRose » Tue 04 May 2010, 13:05:44

I'm quite sure that areas with high population density will be the most difficult to live in, especially if those areas do not have the capability to grow food in large amounts close by. I can imagine some cities doing well if the climate and land availability are sufficient for growing the yields needed by the population. Land can be used inside the city in private gardens, park areas, on rooftops, and outside the city within a radius that crops can be easily transported from. I like to think about the potential for growing food in cities because generally we have only scraped the surface imagining it, what with shopping malls and big box stores and over-sized homes using up most of the sprawling cityscape. All of that said, a smaller town or community is likely a better choice - I just like to think that cities are not necessarily doomed.

To my mind, one of the most pressing questions to ask is this: Do you think people work better together when everything is relatively easy or when they are faced with adversity? Arguments can be made for both. We may have more strength than we've had to muster with our current standard of living.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Pops » Tue 04 May 2010, 14:25:45

I think everyone is capable of harming others, in fact, everyone in the rich world harms the poor simply by living in the rich world and sucking up more than their "share". And have you seen the look on people's face in the clips of Black Friday at Walwart?

We are a long way (by todays standards) from Metropolis but hardly remote and to be honest, people around here probably aren't any more honest or nice than anywhere else but they do know many of their neighbors go armed.

I agree flexibility is key. But instead of being flexible by planing to have nothing to lose, I chose to be flexible by not depending so much on things that might break down. Obvious systems like water and sewer and highways of course but also things like "Food4Less" and "gas stations" and "A Job" (which is why I can afford to waste time tapping this ;^)

I think we'll go Bumty Bump along the plateau for a while, then bumpty down the slide - no widespread huge cliff events in other words. I really do think everyone should, and can, have a less jarring plan B - and C and D and E for that matter.

In fact if my Plan B was to walk away from everything I owned and go on an extended campout that included convincing the little lady and darling children that grubs really are as as good as gummy bears, plan B would never be put in action and I'd be worse off for wasting hours learning which grubs are nutritious instead of stocking a pantry, saving some cash, getting ahead of the bills or whatever would make me a little more resistant to economic zingers.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 May 2010, 14:41:39

As I've said elsewhere and will say again here, if it comes down to Zombie Hordes, I will walk away into what passes for "wilderness" here to die, rather than fight. What would I fight with, anyway?

Since I enjoy learning about grubs, it's no loss for me to learn about them. :)

But I expect to be dead before any Zombie Hordes arrive.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 04 May 2010, 19:10:40

Interesting thread.

First point, loose the idea about "evil." There is no good or bad in nature, those are human concepts that change with the circumstances. All morality is circumstantial so there is not good footing there. Many disagree with that but...sorry - you are wrong. In nature only the genetic survivors are rewarded. If the time comes you will likely make the "right" decision to work towards your genetic survival. As will others. Nastiness will ensue. Such is life.

Second, I think it was Pops himself who had a thread about the 5 most important things for survival? As I recall they were something like:
1 - Water
2 - Mobility
3 - Flexibility
4 - Food
5 - Skills

Pops please correct me if I am wrong on that.

I agree with most of Pop's statements but would alter it a little. As a MINIMUM we will bump along a downward spiral with some fast and some slow spots and even some regaining of ground. I would argue that we are already a couple of years, maybe 5, into that kind of spiral now. It will be much more clear to the historians of the future than now but that is my opinion. So, what you see is what you get.

BUT it is possible, and I think likely, we will have some FAST CRASH action, at least in certain geographic areas if not worldwide. My belief, and it is a belief for I can not prove it, is that our worldwide culture constitutes a "critically coupled" system where there are one or more highly interlocked points that hold the system together. If any one of them fails it may take the whole shebang, or some significant portion thereof, down. By there very nature the failure mode of critically coupled systems is chaotic, you can't predict how it will fail. Think of a house of cards, you KNOW it will eventually collapse, you don't the pattern the cards will fall in.

Thus flexibility is of paramount importance. I too have settled upon a waterborne solution as providing the most flexible and therefore survivable solution.

I am sufficiently lucky that I also have some remote land that my children could develop if they so desire. I'm too damn old.

While I have at least some of the skills to fight I wish to avoid it at all costs, it is a lose-lose-lose situation. Fight I will if I must, but that will mean I have failed at prepping.

Ludi, I have a recipe for Zombie stew if that helps.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 May 2010, 19:30:23

Newfie wrote: Many disagree with that but...sorry - you are wrong.


No, you are. Humans are part of nature, therefore morality is part of nature. Altruism is part of being human.

Newfie wrote:Ludi, I have a recipe for Zombie stew if that helps.


It might help, if you are in the stew.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Pops » Tue 04 May 2010, 20:03:57

5 rules is still my favorite thread Newfie, I expanded on it some for PO "civilians" on my blog (link below).

My Five
    Don't Buy
    Don't Borrow
    Don't Specialize
    Don't Starve
    Don't Depend

I agree about train wrecks, I've been a "prepper" since I helped "Mom, Bessie" put up apricots when I was too young to be around a canner. Those things happen all the time, Nashville floods and Louisiana oil slicks and all sorts of unemployed carpenters can attest to the fact that stuff happens.

In fact those isolated or limited crashes are the reasons I think it's a good idea to plan some intermediate steps between business as usual and Bug Out Bingo.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 04 May 2010, 20:37:45

Ludi wrote:
Newfie wrote: Many disagree with that but...sorry - you are wrong.


No, you are. Humans are part of nature, therefore morality is part of nature. Altruism is part of being human.


We have been down this road before I think. No point in rehashing. I respect that you and I disagree on this point.

Ludi wrote:
Newfie wrote:Ludi, I have a recipe for Zombie stew if that helps.


It might help, if you are in the stew.


Hmmm, let me chew on that for a bit.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 04 May 2010, 21:33:44

Doomers spend too much time strategizing their survival, as if sheer survival at all costs is worth it. I don't think it is. Everyone should draw their own line that they refuse to cross rather than feeling like they have to become nihilistic nomadic cannibals (ala The Road).

Let homo sapiens and the gene pool fend for itself. Deciding when to check out is everybody's own damn decision.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby americandream » Tue 04 May 2010, 21:47:05

Isolation and solitude can be rather invigorating actually. I lived for almost 8 years on a remote island in the far north of Orkny where I subsisted on a crofters diet and my own company, quite adequately. And I am by no means a survivalist.

Having said that, human politics intrude no matter where you are and no matter how modest numbers may be. My lesson from that experience is that I would rather stay and fight for change rather than abscond in search of a Shangri La that does not exist, other than virtually, and will not unless we change the way we think as a species.

davep wrote:I'm not sure if we're all capable of such evil. Some may prefer to die. But it's mere hypothesis, as neither of us have been put in that situation.

I'm also not sure you need to run off to pristine wilderness to survive.

Living in a fairly remote rural area (where everyone is packing) seems a good bet to me (well it would do, as that's what I've decided to do). If it involves being part of a militia, fair enough. What's your problem with helping out in communal defence?

I think I'd probably go mad if I was too isolated for a long period of time.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 04 May 2010, 22:30:42

Nice to see you again Pops.

Mos, it was a post of yours on another thread which made me think to write this intro.
You were referring to children and their effect on coping in Olduvai.
For me (& I think for you and most parents of young children), the parenting situation intesifies questions of long term survival. I think this very intensity could become the driving force towards taking drastic steps, whether in prepping, or ultimately in self defense. Therefore I can't see having a small number of children as an impediment to survival in a fast crash scenario. Also, yes it is everyone's own damn business. That is why we are posing on an anonymous forum, where we can say anything we like about our hopes, fears and preparations.

Newfie, I know you know how I think. We may be a decade or 2 different in age, but our thinking is very similar when it comes to preps. The floating platform for living has some advantages unobtainable in other modes. It is the only non petro lifestyle whereby one can avail the best of all possible worlds in any given scenario. With the right boat it is possible to have an urban center for social modernity, a country farm (or at least access to these) and a familiar wilderness area. A well equipped yacht is perhaps the only means of living satisfying Pops' list of essential preps.

Of course some people just don't like being on or in water. For these, a close nit community in a naturally abundant farming area seems to be the best option.

AD, if I were single and unattached I would think very differently to be sure. I am not a fraidy cat and I come from a long line of warriors. In some ways I would prefer to be an urban guerilla than to sail away to non existent Shangri-La. I just can't see myself fighting with either my daughter hanging on my hip or she and my wife waiting at home in the bunker.

Ludi, yours is the most honourable approach. Very noble and Zen; I know you don't believe in heaven (?) but yours may be the most likely way to end up there.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby americandream » Tue 04 May 2010, 23:48:33

SG

It's not a case of fighting, for me. I'm not a particulary heroic type.

However, I once beat a retreat from capitalism only to discover that I never really got away. If I've learnt anything from that, it's that unless we confront it and change the way we think, there will never be any relief from this incessant scramble for more.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 05 May 2010, 05:11:45

americandream wrote:SG

It's not a case of fighting, for me. I'm not a particulary heroic type.

However, I once beat a retreat from capitalism only to discover that I never really got away. If I've learnt anything from that, it's that unless we confront it and change the way we think, there will never be any relief from this incessant scramble for more.


Succinctly put, I agree.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 14 May 2010, 07:29:03

SeaGypsy wrote:
americandream wrote:SG

It's not a case of fighting, for me. I'm not a particulary heroic type.

However, I once beat a retreat from capitalism only to discover that I never really got away. If I've learnt anything from that, it's that unless we confront it and change the way we think, there will never be any relief from this incessant scramble for more.


Succinctly put, I agree.


While I agree in principal, I have no faith that we can effectively confront and change the way humans think, or more correctly - react.

My considered opinion is that we, as a species, do not have the capacity to look sufficiently forward and do the necessary planning to avert disaster. INDIVIDUALS can and do, but as a group we fail. This is the root of my pessimism.

One simple example. I am going on 60. The Israeli/Palestinian fight has been going on my entire life and is now no closer to resolution than ever. I think that conflict is simple compared to the changes that are required to make a sustainable worldwide habitat.

Thus I have lost the will to "confront" for I see no hope of "change."

Just my position. I respect other views.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby americandream » Fri 14 May 2010, 07:58:00

Winning this battle of ideas has never crossed my mind. However, its quite evident (to me) that to allow a small minority to peddle a way of life that involves us consuming vast amounts of finite resources in order that they may profit fabulously thereby living lives of excess, and to allow them to control all media including taxpayer funded sources as a means of propaganda and thought control, will result in precisely the mess we have today. Speaking out as a consequence of this insight comes naturally. To do otherwise seems unnatural.

Newfie wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:
americandream wrote:SG

It's not a case of fighting, for me. I'm not a particulary heroic type.

However, I once beat a retreat from capitalism only to discover that I never really got away. If I've learnt anything from that, it's that unless we confront it and change the way we think, there will never be any relief from this incessant scramble for more.


Succinctly put, I agree.


While I agree in principal, I have no faith that we can effectively confront and change the way humans think, or more correctly - react.

My considered opinion is that we, as a species, do not have the capacity to look sufficiently forward and do the necessary planning to avert disaster. INDIVIDUALS can and do, but as a group we fail. This is the root of my pessimism.

One simple example. I am going on 60. The Israeli/Palestinian fight has been going on my entire life and is now no closer to resolution than ever. I think that conflict is simple compared to the changes that are required to make a sustainable worldwide habitat.

Thus I have lost the will to "confront" for I see no hope of "change."

Just my position. I respect other views.
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Re: Population Density & Individual Destiny

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 14 May 2010, 17:44:57

When you say "allow" you imply that we have a choice. I don't think we do. The heard makes the choice, we just get swept away by the shear force of numbers.

I'm not criticizing, just commenting.
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Study first to quant global population growth vs energy use

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sat 25 Jul 2015, 19:02:16

Limits to Growth ...

Study is first to quantify global population growth compared to energy use

The study showed that energy use has generally outpaced population growth over the last few hundred years. Each generation has thus produced more energy per person than its predecessor, the study reported, even as the population has climbed from about 500 million to more than 7 billion in the 450 years analyzed by the authors.

This increasing per capita energy supply has also hiked up Earth's carrying capacity - the number of people it can sustain at equilibrium - and allowed the population to grow at an ever-faster, or exponential, rate.

"Broadly speaking, no one's really (quantified) this," said DeLong, assistant professor of biological sciences. "But it was important, because there are studies going back decades that assume this kind of positive feedback loop: We grow, we expand our capacity to extract energy, and then we grow some more."

However, DeLong and colleague Oskar Burger also found that this dynamic has shifted in the decades following 1963, when the world's population was growing faster than ever before or since.

During the subsequent half-century, the ratio between energy increases and population growth has narrowed, with the former now aligning more closely to the latter. A 1:1 ratio would theoretically limit the planet's population to a linear rather than exponential growth.

Image

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"I do think this should challenge our assumptions about future population growth," DeLong said. "The study supports conventional wisdom to a degree, but it also reminds us that (abundant energy) is maybe not something that we can count on indefinitely.

"Our study sort of plays into a deep cultural philosophy that we have the creativity and ability to solve whatever problem comes our way. The evidence shows that, from an energy point of view, we've done that a lot. But maybe that's not a guarantee."


While analyzing the data, the researchers also spotted unexpected fluctuations in the population-energy relationship at certain points in history. After closer scrutiny, they discovered that per capita energy yields fluctuated during times of socio-economic and environmental upheaval: the Little Ice Age, the Industrial Revolution, World War I and II, the oil crises of the 1970s.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/articl ... ne.0130547
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