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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 19:01:37

Ah, now the main concern is the "deterioration of health and general genetic quality of their offspring," not over-population.

Bbbbbut what about our precious bodily fluids...aren't you concerned about those, too!? :) :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAHJCPoWCC8

If that is really your major concern, you are, of course, free to start a thread on that interesting subject.

Meanwhile, those of us with very healthy children of excellent 'genetic quality' (thank you) who were born when their mom was over 25 will just carry on with our carefree happy lives!!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Sep 2018, 17:01:17

Again, when women have access to safe contraception, they hugely prefer that over having endless kids'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DcdONaKSQM
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 01 Sep 2018, 20:12:00

Tanada wrote: Odds are pretty good that the kids which were born in 1987 will still be alive in 2055. They will have seen the world change massively in one human lifespan, even if that means the collapse of technological civilization back to an earlier form.



I was thinking about how my parents, born in the 1920's and passed away during the last couple of years. They also saw the world change massively in one human lifespan. And this will happen again as you mentioned Tanada to those born after 1987.

All of this just indicates what an anomaly these times are , this accelerated explosion of population, technology, harvesting and colonizing practically every corner of the planet, blanketing more than half the earths surface with our modified landscapes.

In a deep time perspective this is all but a heart beat.

In many ways I take solace in understanding this. This is everything but BAU in reference to our species history....

Everyone of us is living in radical times actually.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 03:08:26

Sorry to hear of your recent loss, Ibon.

My folks are both in their 90's and have indeed see the world change in very dramatic ways. My daughter, if she survives very far into it, will also see enormous changes.

We are, indeed, a planet-altering species.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 07:58:17

Can I ask all of you a question. This question has intrigued me for some time now. Do you all think that we need to maintain fairly advanced technology to make it through the bottleneck of the consequences to Overshoot? I am not asking will we. But do we need to in order to insure our survival as a species?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 10:08:14

No. For 99...% of the existence of humans, there was no high tech, and yet we survived and (overall) thrived.

But if there is anything to Kurzweil's AI 'Singularity' idea, it may be out of our hands to even decide.

Another question might be, do you think we have earned the right to continue surviving as a species, given the state we are leaving the living planet in?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 10:22:56

Onlooker,
I agree with Dohboi on this point.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 10:31:57

Interesting question Dohboi. Frankly, I would have to say no. However, it is a bit of a complicated issue, in that while some are especially implicated in our reckless path, ie. Exxon Mobile hiding inconvenient facts, rich world citizens basking in material affluence, others are not doing anything that can be deemed as malfeasance in being good global citizens other than of course having a rather large litter haha. I think that looking from a more abstract and wide lense, we are just another species that has happened to be able to exert especially strong influence upon our Environment, nothing more or less. So, to blame us as a species may be a little too stern as we are acting similar to other species but with greater impact. I think we can blame each other for many things but hard to place blame on us collectively for being culprits in our collective demise.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 11:02:42

I would also say no but add a caveat that going through the bottleneck does not mean an automatic reset to our tribal past as it was before civilization. The knowledge that passes through the bottleneck will be interwoven with the challenges of survival and out of that comes a new set of cultural values and technological adaptation. The planet degraded but healing along with our ruins everywhere around us will set the stage for some interesting possibilities. Maybe a new spiritual orientation toward our mother earth for example. I just say maybe. No guarantees. Just maybe.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 11:09:56

ol: "while some are especially implicated in our reckless path...others are not doing anything that can be deemed as malfeasance in being good global citizens "

Good point
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closing in on the big 8

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 11:54:57

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

7.647 million today, 8 billion within 5 years from now if the ice will hold out a bit more.
I never thought we would make it to 8 but we still have a chanche to hit a glorious peak human above 8000 million.
9 big billion will never ever happen.
That would mean BAU will have to be around for another decade after the next, another generation of peace and growth.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Sep 2018, 12:58:46

Yes, I also do not think we will make it to 9 Billion. Beyond all the calamities that we discuss here on a regular basis looming, we also seem to be having problems with fertility. I surmise that that could be because the global level of pollution and contamination is interfering with both the female and male capacity to fertilize successfully. Some sort of chemical biological havoc may be the culprit.
If anybody saw the movie "Children of Men" that deals precisely with this issue.
That may be the best thing that could happen to our species to be regulated by force, given that we seem unwilling and/or unable to do so of our own volition. And of course the calamties seem destined to cull our species whether we like it or not.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 06 Sep 2018, 08:11:20

onlooker wrote:Can I ask all of you a question. This question has intrigued me for some time now. Do you all think that we need to maintain fairly advanced technology to make it through the bottleneck of the consequences to Overshoot? I am not asking will we. But do we need to in order to insure our survival as a species?


Nope, natives in Alaska and Siberia survived in a climate most modern folks are horrified to experience for a few days, let alone on generational time scales. Humans are a duality species, we can adapt to extreme environments to an extent, then we add clothes and shelters and fire to adapt the environment to suit our needs even further. A person with nothing but a fur blanket can survive temperate winter climate even without fire by building a decent shelter out of snow or living in a cave. With fire we humans can be quite comfortable in a shelter even in well below freezing temperatures outside the shelter.

This all boils down to a bottleneck is not an extinction event. Knock off 99 percent of those alive at the instant you read this and knowledge of fire will remain in the temnent population. From fire you can build all else of civilization.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 06 Sep 2018, 10:04:43

So, was control of fire the 'original sin.' This is what a friend of mine thinks, though she wouldn't put it in quite those terms.

But if the unlivability of the earth we are de-terra-forming is the result of heat rather than cold, will fire be all that useful?
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 06 Sep 2018, 14:27:05

Yes. Even if 99% of 4 billion people die, the surviving 1% is 40 million people. They will have an industrial civilization, internet, power grid, and space travel. The "Doom" part is the people, due to lack of cheap energy and cheap food.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 08 Sep 2018, 08:15:26

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but this is just 6 scenarios that could possible lead to our extinction from Guy Mcpherson's site. I would add that reading up on the Great Dying the biggest and worse Mass Extinction Event, the conditions were so brual and inhospitable that it seems far fetched that a large mammal like us could survive. Hence, my question about technology. Tanada is quite right that we are very adaptive and cunning, however when the planet itself has changed to one foreign/malignant to most complex organisms, we need to reconsider if in fact we are at risk as a species. Guy stresses the importance of habitat in hosting us.

1. Abrupt climate change resulting from the loss of global dimming when civilization falls. I’ve spoken about this issue recently, and my presentations in the near future will continue to pound this drum.

2. Abrupt climate change resulting from firing the clathrate gun (item 1 on this list). I’ve written and spoken repeatedly about this topic.

3. Abrupt climate change resulting from moistening of the upper troposphere (item 39 on this list). As the planet warms, the most-abundant greenhouse gas becomes more abundant, thus further warming the planet.

4. Overt, rather than the ongoing covert version of World War leading to use of nuclear weapons. We can duck, but there’s no cover. So much for “duck and cover.”

5. Meltdown of the world’s nuclear power facilities. Fukushima was a harbinger. Many people, all of them more knowledgeable about the subject than me, believe Fukushima is an extinction-level event for our species.

6. Driving to extinction many other species. At some point, we become the species driven to extinction by industrial civilization. We will die without a living planet to sustain us.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 08 Sep 2018, 09:21:49

We have also filled the global ecosystem with a massive amounts of a plethora of artificial chemicals that have never existed in nature and which we don't know how they will interact long-term with life and other systems...especially the persistent ones that nature does not have a way of breaking down easily.

Not the P-T "Great Dying," but another mass extinction we can gain some insights from for our current catastrophe--Two pieces on the PETM

History suggests impacts of global warming are being underestimated



Beginning 56 million years ago, during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum — a period between the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs, lasting 10,000 to 20,000 years — temperatures rose between 5 and 8 degrees Celsius.

Using the analysis of ancient sediment cores, scientists analyzed the effects of this dramatic rise in temperature on hydrologic cycles.

Previous studies have charted the rise in temperature during Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM. Castelltort and his colleagues analyzed evidence of shifting river dynamics in the Spanish Pyrenees during the same time period.

The analysis of pebbles in ancient sediment cores allowed researchers to estimate the flow velocity and discharge in the river system. At the beginning the of the PETM, river channels deposited fertile alluvium in the floodplain at the foothills of the Pyrenees. The deposits encouraged the growth of rich vegetation.

As temperature rose during the PETM, the system’s dynamics shifted dramatically. Rising temperatures increased the severity and frequency of flooding by a factor of 14. The sudden change caused fertile alluvium to be carried directly to the ocean, bypassing the floodplain.

As a result of the change in sediment deposition patterns, vegetation disappeared from the Pyrenees foothills. The region was transformed into an arid expanse of gravel.



“We face effects that we do not understand, which can perhaps be explained by local factors, but also by global factors that are not yet incorporated into current climate models,” Castelltort said.

see:
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2018/0 ... 536238447/

While in the seas:

Shining light on ancient global warming

The impact of global warming on shallow marine life approximately 56 million years ago is the subject of a significant, new article. Researchers have now addressed the effects of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) — a relatively brief period of global climate change, spanning 200,000 years — on marine invertebrates, including snails, clams and other mollusks.

Which begs the question: What implications do these results hold for the present and future response of shallow marine biota to ongoing global change? Ivany chooses her words carefully, explaining that the carbon dioxide release during the PETM occurred over thousands of years. Compare that to putting the same amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from only a few hundred years of human activity.”

Whatever happened during the PETM was a “best-case scenario” for marine invertebrates, Ivany explains. “With everything happening so much faster now, it is more likely organisms will go extinct,” she adds. “When the environment changes, you must move, evolve or die. If it changes faster than you can move or evolve, you’re toast.”

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 142055.htm

Thanks to Kassy at rscribbler's sit for these
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 08 Sep 2018, 11:35:29

"]
We have also filled the global ecosystem with a massive amounts of a plethora of artificial chemicals that have never existed in nature and which we don't know how they will interact long-term with life and other systems...especially the persistent ones that nature does not have a way of breaking down easily.

Yes, and many other species may be more vulnerable to this proliferation of toxic chemicals and Bees are but one example of a species we are very dependent on, so ultimately it will be inimical to our wellbeing
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 08 Sep 2018, 23:36:04

ol mentioned "Children of Men" a few posts back...well...:

https://www.gq.com/story/sperm-count-zero
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 09 Sep 2018, 13:03:29

dohboi wrote:ol mentioned "Children of Men" a few posts back...well...:

https://www.gq.com/story/sperm-count-zero


Yep. I'm prepping for 'becoming extinct'. But how does one prep for that?
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