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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 05:22:49

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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 05:26:39

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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 06:19:51

Kiwi,

The article is bemoaning the low REPLACEMENT growth rate. However the USA is growing due to immigration. Totally ignore that fact.

So both statements are true, replacement growth near zero, immigration growth robust.

Yet another misleading bit of that story.

News in the USA sucks
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 04:07:32

@ newfie......and the sustainable population of the US ....given current consumption rates of its inhabitants and its levels of renewable resources has been estimated to be approximately 150 million ( carbon footprint network I think .....but seems to be behind a paywall now ) .

Of course the evidence suggests that the renewable resources are being damaged and depleted ...so 150 million might be optimistic
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 05:03:30

Yes. I heard an interview with the guy who invented the footprint. It was a podcast normally behind paywalls. He noted the model does not include such factors as soil depletion, so his models are quite conservative.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 06:24:54

Newfie wrote:The article is bemoaning the low REPLACEMENT growth rate. However the USA is growing due to immigration. Totally ignore that fact.

So both statements are true, replacement growth near zero, immigration growth robust.

Yet another misleading bit of that story.

News in the USA sucks
As I just mentioned in another thread, immigration is not the primary factor for the increase in the US population. Immigration accounts for less than a third of the increase in the US population. 70% of the increase in population is natural population growth. IE, having babies:

In the early 2000s, immigration accounted for roughly 40 percent of U.S. population growth, leaving 60 percent from natural increase. During the past few years, however, net international migration is estimated to have accounted for only 30 percent of the annual population growth. The decline in immigration has been linked to job losses in construction, manufacturing, and other occupations that are often filled by recent immigrants, as well as stricter enforcement of immigration laws. Net immigration levels from Mexico are estimated to have reached zero in recent years as an equal number of people entering the United States from Mexico are now returning to their home country.
What’s Driving the Decline in U.S. Population Growth?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 09:52:48

Kub,
Interesting study but 7 years old. I wonder what things look like now?

On the surface at least it appears to be a good source.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 15:02:56

2013 saw both the natural population and immigration increase leading to a brief rise in the overall population growth rate. However the most recent data has all 3 indicators falling again: population growth rate, natural increase, and immigration.

Image
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 15:37:23

OK,
The growth rates are leveling off, that’s good.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 05:42:03

330 million (???) x 0.7% = 2,310,000

US population increasing by more than 2 million per year

That's another Houston ( 2.3 million ) each year

Or another Dallas (1.3million ) and a another San Francisco (870,000 ) each year

Or another Denver (700,000 ) and another Boston (680,000 ) and another Las Vegas (650,000 ) each year

Take your pick
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 07:36:25

We moved out.

Canada's population has topped the 37-million mark, but Newfoundland and Labrador wasn't any help, according to numbers released by Statistics Canada on Thursday.

The province was the only one where the population dropped in the first three months of 2018 — by 0.3 per cent to just under 526,000.


This includes Labrador, the island propper has under 500,000. It is the same size as Pennsylvania which has about 13 million.

New Zealand, somewhat over twice the size, has just under 5 million.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 08:21:17

Here's a clue about how population actually gets curbed in modern society:

https://www.npr.org/2018/07/31/63423286 ... o-marriage
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 12:53:26

Yeah, I don’t do Audio or Video. Too much bandwidth, too much time. Too hard to really understand what they are going on about. Nice text articles are good.

In know, I’m old school, I still read.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 16:51:40

37838914_2111914982215716_1904596079110782976_o.jpg
37838914_2111914982215716_1904596079110782976_o.jpg (225.46 KiB) Viewed 8124 times
I think you like graphics also Newf
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 16:53:54

"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 19:11:15

Ya know, there is something just wrong with that graphic. How many earths would we need if we lived like India is 0.7?

If we populated the USA to Indias current population density (per unit of aerable land) we would have 4 times as many folks as we do, or about 1.3 BILLION. AND our population would be sky rocketing. If we did it at China’s land usage rate we would have 5 BILLION in the USA alone.

No I agree we need to reduce our energy usage and consumption drastically, cut it to one quarter of where we are (to match India) would be a great start.

But then India should cut its population to match the USA density (which I still think is too high.). That also would be a great start.

I’m betting it’s a whole lot easier for the USA to cut energy use and consumption by 75% than for India to cut population by 75%. But if they keep screwing with Pakistan’s water it may happen.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 19:41:48

Newf still doesn't get the function of C, apparently, in the old formula C(onsumption) x P(opulation) = I(mpact)

Meanwhile, here's the transcript from the bit at the link above...it wasn't up yet at the time that I posted:


Why Young Chinese Aren't Rushing Into Marriage


Transcript

July 31, 20187:16 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
Rob Schmitz 2016 square

China's young adults are moving to the city and making more money. They're pickier about their marriage prospects and that has China's government worried about a rapidly decreasing marriage rate.

NOEL KING, HOST:

Record numbers of Chinese people are moving to cities, and record numbers of them are also deciding to hold off on getting married. The marriage rate in China has plunged by 30 percent in the past five years, and this is making the Chinese government very worried. NPR's Rob Schmitz has the story.

ROB SCHMITZ, BYLINE: At a market in Shanghai, people are hustling to sell their goods. And at this market inside People's Park, their goods are their grown children.

(Speaking Chinese).

MRS. WANG: (Speaking Chinese).

SCHMITZ: Mrs. Wang is lined up among hundreds of other parents all standing behind umbrellas with signs taped to them advertising their unmarried children. We read hers together.

(Speaking Chinese).

MRS. WANG: (Speaking Chinese).

SCHMITZ: Born in 1985, studied in the U.K., short, has a Shanghai residence permit, owns her own apartment. Wang has come to Shanghai's marriage market each weekend for the past three months to try and find a suitable husband for her daughter.

MRS. WANG: (Through interpreter) She doesn't agree with what I'm doing, but she respects her parents' wishes. Young people these days don't care about marriage. They don't pay enough attention to our traditional values. Their views are becoming more Western.

SCHMITZ: Wang blames her daughter's single status at the age of 33 on the seven years she spent in the U.K., where she became more independent. But there are other reasons why young Chinese aren't rushing into marriage. Thirty-year-old Dai Xuan, who works as the editor of a luxury magazine in Shanghai, says hers are economic.

DAI XUAN: (Through interpreter) Bizarre in China, you married to survive. Now I'm living all by myself so I have higher expectations in marriage.

SCHMITZ: Like many young urban Chinese, Dai studied abroad. She lived in Norway, and she enjoys her job. She says she's not in a rush to get married.

DAI: (Through interpreter) People my age laugh at those who get married early because only rural people without an education do that. It's not that successful women don't want to marry. It's that making money makes us pickier.

SCHMITZ: But that can work both ways, says Josephine Pan. The 45-year-old is the Shanghai CEO of FCB, an advertising firm. She says in a traditional society like China's, men are intimidated by her title.

JOSEPHINE PAN: They don't want a female CEO as a girlfriend or wife. They maybe feel it's a big threat to them. I'm not an arrogant person, like, all the time show off my title. I keep it very low-profile. But, no matter how low you keep, you're intimidating them.

SCHMITZ: While men outnumber women among China's overall population, at Chinese universities women have outnumbered men for the past two decades. And that means more women who have career trajectories they don't want to jeopardize by marrying and having children.

LETA HONG FINCHER: What's happening on the ground with these particularly urban, educated women is completely at odds with what the Chinese government wants the women to be doing.

SCHMITZ: Leta Hong Fincher is the author of the forthcoming book, "Betraying Big Brother: The Feminist Awakening In China." She says China's Communist Party has tried propaganda campaigns, matchmaking events and has even ended the decades-old one-child policy to persuade educated young women to marry and start families. But declining birth rates show none of this is working. The party's problem boils down to this. Projections show by 2030 there will be more Chinese over the age of 65 than under 14. For the first time in a century, China will be facing a shortage of workers and an oversupply of non-working seniors, an economic problem that Hong Fincher says will become a political one.

HONG FINCHER: It relates to, ultimately, to the survival of the Communist Party. How do they continue exerting control when you have all these chaotic forces - young people, young women in particular, who are all wanting to do their own thing rather than follow the dictates of the government and marry early and have babies?

SCHMITZ: And it's not only women who are opting to forgo marriage. Twenty-six-year-old Yuan Ruiyu says he and his friends are under pressure from both the government and their parents to hurry up and marry, and it's having the opposite effect on them. He says it's making them question why they should marry in the first place.

YUAN RUIYU: (Through interpreter) In China, young people are supposed to do as they're told by their parents and their government. But it's a trap. It's not for our own good, but for theirs.

SCHMITZ: Yuan says as more and more of his peers leave their hometowns, study abroad and find jobs they like, they become more and more independent. And marriage, one of the most personal decisions someone can make, becomes their decision, not anyone else's. Rob Schmitz, NPR News, Shanghai.



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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 01 Aug 2018, 14:57:28

No Dohboi, you just can read.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 Aug 2018, 15:34:04

Well, I can read this! :)

Population projections for India may be too high:

"Since education level across all of India has increased over time, and is associated with a lower fertility rate, the same projection may predict a drastically smaller population when accounting for education and increasing urbanisation.

Combining both effects, the influence of education appears to dominate, resulting in a lower population projection."

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... aEkwL.html
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 01 Aug 2018, 17:20:42

So what? Are you trying to argue the USA should have been the population of India? Are you saying over population is not an issue?
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