[dissident]

It will not get any better. There is no evidence of any greenhouse gas reductions happening now or in the forseeable future. CO2 is basically a direct measure of entropy associated with human activity and has followed the same relentless advance. There is no indication that any long term negative entropy regime due to technology will happen. Even the collapse of global civilization will result in a CO2 emissions surge from war and rampant, desperate extraction of any available source of energy.

[Subjectivist]

It will not get any better. There is no evidence of any greenhouse gas reductions happening now or in the forseeable future. CO2 is basically a direct measure of entropy associated with human activity and has followed the same relentless advance. There is no indication that any long term negative entropy regime due to technology will happen. Even the collapse of global civilization will result in a CO2 emissions surge from war and rampant, desperate extraction of any available source of energy.

That is what I keep telling people! Forget halting Climate Change, instead focus on saving as many species and people as we can with the resources we have.

[Tanada]

Glacier Retreat in the Andes is Bankrupting a Billion Dollar Corporation

April 15, 2022

Companies can go bankrupt due to poor business models, more successful competitors, or a decline in their target consumers. But as glacier retreat and droughts lead to lower river flows, hydroelectric power companies like Alto Maipo SpA (“Alto Maipo”) are adding climate change to the list of culprits.

On November 11, 2021, Alto Maipo, a Chilean subsidiary of the American Fortune 500 Company AES Corporation, filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in the state of Delaware for its highly controversial hydroelectric power project on the Maipo River, southeast of the capital city of Santiago. In its bankruptcy filing, the company claimed that decreasing electricity prices in Chile and the effects of climate change on its water supply make its current financial structure unsustainable. The filing follows years of intense pushback from environmentalists and residents in the Maipo Valley and Santiago over the company’s diverting of the Maipo River, which is the main water supply for the city. Much of the scrutiny comes from concerns that the Maipo Valley is already overexploited by developers who have built mines, the El Yeso Dam, and several hydroelectric plants meant to subsidize mining—four of which are owned by Alto Maipo’s American parent company, AES Andes.

Construction of the Alto Maipo hydroelectric power project began in 2008 despite considerable opposition from residents of the surrounding valley and Santiago. The energy generated was meant to power mineral operations such as Los Pelambres, a copper mine north of Santiago.

Costs of the project have ballooned from $700 million to over $3 billion. Scheduling and construction setbacks have pushed the expected finish date by more than 9 years. It is now projected to be completed this summer. The project was expected to generate an average of 2,213 GWh of energy per year—enough energy to power Dallas, Texas, three times over—but generated just half of that (1,100 GWh) in 2021 in large part due to droughts and shrinking Andean glaciers. The loss of revenue from decreased water flow was a key factor in Alto Maipo declaring bankruptcy last November in the face of fractional energy outputs from the project that are trending downward.

While supporters of the project tout it as “run-of-the-river,” this label is not accurate, according to Carl Bauer, a water policy professor at the University of Arizona. Run-of-the-river projects are hydroelectric projects that place the turbines and generating plants directly in the river so that water flows through without being removed or held in a reservoir. The Alto Maipo hydroelectric plant is “diverting water and piping it through tunnels, eventually returning it quite a bit downstream” unlike a true run-of-the-river project, said Bauer.

The project diverts 43 miles of the river and its tributaries through a tunnel to turbines which generate electricity before returning the water to the river upstream of Santiago. Bauer notes this has significant environmental impacts and leaves areas of the basin entirely dry. This has led to considerable opposition from environmentalists, local communities in the Maipo Valley, and Santiago residents. Santiago’s city government has not opposed the project, but Bauer says that this likely is due to the upstream location of the water’s return, which leaves the urban water supply unaffected.

Though Alto Maipo said in its bankruptcy claim that the droughts and low water flows were unexpected, critics such as NGOs No Alto Maipo and Ecosistemas have pointed out that the environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) conducted in 2008 by Alto Maipo was flawed and incomplete. These organizations asserted that the ESIA used historical water flow data as a basis for the project rather than the current data at the time, leading to faulty projections in energy generation. Both movements are led by community coalitions and environmentalists that have opposed the Alto Maipo Project for over a decade.

In 2017, No Alto Maipo and Ecosistemas filed a complaint with the International Finance Committee (IFC), a global development institution and large investor in Alto Maipo. Unlike entirely private bank groups, the IFC is the financial arm of the World Bank Group, a bank of the United Nations focused on helping developing countries. As a result, it is more open than private banks to addressing complaints and allegations against the recipients of its funding if they are shown to be in violation of the UN’s policies.

No Alto Maipo and Ecosistemas stated that Alto Maipo violated the IFC’s policies on social and environmental governance, saying that the ESIA failed to acknowledge potential water shortages due to climate change. They added that the ESIA did not consider how the hydroelectric project would affect recreation, tourism, and drinking water in the valley. The IFC agreed with these charges, adding in their report that Alto Maipo did not properly consult affected communities. As a result, the IFC fully divested from Alto Maipo in May 2018.

In the years before petitioning the IFC, as well as after, these groups organized large demonstrations, which have brought in people from dozens of organizations and professions. A 2010 demonstration included 300 muleteers from the mountain range around the Maipo Valley, a mass to pray for the water of the Maipo, and several Chilean senators and public figures. Other major demonstrations took place in 2013, 2015, and 2017 as well as a demonstration organized by women in 2019 and another led by local residents in 2020. More recently, a protest in 2021 brought together outdoor communities under the campaign “Save the Maipo,” organized by Patagonia, an American outdoor clothing brand.

Magdalena Gil, an environmental sociologist at the Catholic University of Chile and homeowner in the Maipo Valley, said that developers frequently fail to consider the full impacts of projects in the overexploited Maipo Basin. Hydroelectric plants, the El Yeso Dam, and mining operations put a strain on the water resources of the valley, which she notes has seen 15 years of drought and is “the number one tourist post in the metropolitan region.” Gil told GlacierHub that the Alto Maipo hydroelectric plant should not be discussed as a stand-alone project. “We need to discuss the sustainability of the Maipo Valley, which is the sustainability of Santiago and its metropolitan region,” she said.

Currently, the bankruptcy claims are under review by the Delaware District of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court. Alto Maipo is planning to restructure itself in a way that would give most of the control of the company to its parent company, AES Corporation, and not give junior creditors any recovery—a decision that is unpopular with those unsecured creditors. It argued on March 29 of this year that the courts should not allow the company to solicit creditor votes for its reorganization plan.

Bauer is almost certain the Alto Maipo hydroelectric project will be completed one way or another at this point. Whether or not it is profitable in the face of droughts and shrinking glaciers is much less certain. But does that mean that in the face of worsening climate change all hydroelectric projects on rivers like the Maipo are doomed from the start?

Not necessarily, according to Bauer. “Changing flows due to climate change will affect the economics and engineering of all water resource projects,” he said. However, he added that groups can take advantage of extra water coming off glaciers that are retreating, either for hydropower or freshwater storage over the next few decades. By targeting areas where glaciers are producing more meltwater as they recede, groups can utilize short-term projects that are less intrusive and exploitative of the rivers they are built on, said Bauer.

The bankruptcy of Alto Maipo demonstrates that developers need to use holistic, future-thinking approaches to renewable energy. Moreover, it shows the importance of prioritizing community voices in the face of climate change to protect vital economic, recreational, and municipal water sources like the Maipo River.

Columbia.edu

[Doly]

Forget halting Climate Change, instead focus on saving as many species and people as we can with the resources we have.

And how do you propose to save species and people?

[Newfie]

People as a species versus people as individuals.

The best way to save species including the human species is a massive decrease in population.

[AdamB]

People as a species versus people as individuals.

The best way to save species including the human species is a massive decrease in population.

An answer that leads straight to the "you first" response. And hence is part of the underlying issue of all us bacterium in this mess together as we finish off the mound of sugar we inherited.

[Doly]

The best way to save species including the human species is a massive decrease in population.

I can see where your reasoning may come from, but you are going to find very few people agreeing with you.

Does anyone have a proposal to save people, assuming that serious climate change happens, that doesn't involve any massive decrease in population?

[vtsnowedin]

No mater how much the climate does change there will be some areas of land at some latitude and some elevation above sea level that will remain habitable and the humans living there will survive if they can escape the desperate efforts of those finding their own conditions uninhabitable. There just will not be enough of those good areas to support nine billion people.

[JuanP]

The best way to save species including the human species is a massive decrease in population.

I can see where your reasoning may come from, but you are going to find very few people agreeing with you.

Does anyone have a proposal to save people, assuming that serious climate change happens, that doesn't involve any massive decrease in population?

Why would you want to do that? We need to reduce our numbers and our consumption as individuals, if we want to create a sustainable world. There is no such thing as not experiencing a massive decrease of population. Some people, like me, will do it voluntarily by living a child free life. Others will suffer terribly because of the inability of their ancestors to not breed.

[JuanP]

No mater how much the climate does change there will be some areas of land at some latitude and some elevation above sea level that will remain habitable and the humans living there will survive if they can escape the desperate efforts of those finding their own conditions uninhabitable. There just will not be enough of those good areas to support nine billion people.

Not necessarily in the short term, and definitely not in the long term. Our species will go extinct, it's just a matter of when and how, not if. Not even our Universe will last forever, much less life on Earth, or our puny, insignificant species.

[Doly]

Our species will go extinct, it's just a matter of when and how, not if.

Sure, but most people's time horizon doesn't go beyond a century (or roughly the life expectancy of their youngest relatives). You may find some people worrying about events that may happen a few centuries from now, but you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who cares about events that may happen in more than a thousand years.

[AdamB]

You may find some people worrying about events that may happen a few centuries from now, but you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who cares about events that may happen in more than a thousand years.

Geologists. Can't swing a dead cat without hitting one in my profession.

I find it fascinating that 20 million years from now, Los Angeles and San Francisco will be one city, sitting side by side. Los San Angelo-Frisco perhaps? 50 million years after that, Los Angeles will be in Alaskan waters. Plants descendants can whine about the liberal infestation having arrived.

Cosmologists are probably another, like worrying about what happens today is any more meaningful than when the Sun runs low on hydrogen, or when that rogue moon that NASA hasn't spotted yet obliterates the earth next week.

Silly Mayans...getting it wrong by a decade or so....

[Tanada]

An Italian mountain glacier collapse has killed six, injured eight and has left at least a dozen missing.

BBC VIDEO

[Doly]

Silly Mayans...getting it wrong by a decade or so....

There are plenty of ways of applying fudge factor. For example: Mayans probably nailed the point when it became technically impossible to prevent some scary level of climate change. I remember running the calculations on a climate change model for the Paris agreement, and thinking that it probably explained the world leaders sudden interest in becoming climate hawks, at least verbally. They wanted to be remembered as trying to do the right thing, just at the point when they knew things had got royally screwed. Alternatively, they nailed the point when the world economy stopped growing by sane calculations of economic growth, to be defined by future generations of economists. Or, if you really want an oil reference, there probably is a suitable one if you look for it.

[AdamB]

Silly Mayans...getting it wrong by a decade or so....

There are plenty of ways of applying fudge factor. For example: Mayans probably nailed the point when it became technically impossible to prevent some scary level of climate change.

Yes, well, the value of the Mayan calender with the conspiracysphere.

I remember running the calculations on a climate change model for the Paris agreement, and thinking that it probably explained the world leaders sudden interest in becoming climate hawks, at least verbally. They wanted to be remembered as trying to do the right thing, just at the point when they knew things had got royally screwed. Alternatively, they nailed the point when the world economy stopped growing by sane calculations of economic growth, to be defined by future generations of economists. Or, if you really want an oil reference, there probably is a suitable one if you look for it.

I remember thinking that COP21 was a joke, but a wonderful selfie opportunity for folks on a per diem and a chance to congratulate each other at grand gala's for having pretended to accomplish something.

[Tanada]

Large calving event on the Perito Moreno Glacier in Argentina caught on camera two weeks ago. In Argentina it is still late spring so such a large event this early in the melting season might prove to be significant.
YouTube

Huge Section Of Glacier Collapses Into Water

Argentina’s Perito Moreno Glacier is one of the largest in the world.

Tourists flock to see the glacier tower 240 feet above the water and stretch nearly 3.1 miles wide.

The video shows an absolutely huge section of the glacier collapsing into the water in a slow yet impressive crash.

Be patient and watch the whole video. It’s worth your time.

“An incredibly large chunk of the Perito Moreno Glacier’s ice-sheet breaks off and flips over in a spectacular way. The ice-sheet of the glacier Perito Moreno is in average 70 meters / 250 feet high and the world’s 3rd largest reserve of fresh water. Thankfully no-one was injured as boats stay at a safe distance from the glacier (for a good reason).

The Perito Moreno Glacier is famous for insane glacier wall collapses during the summer when large icebergs – often up to 250 feet in height – are breaking off the glacier and collapsing into water of the Lago Argentino. In the right time of the year big blocks of ice break off the glacier and drop into the water. The waves created by such glacier calving events often splash dozens of meters through the air. The glacier is one of Argentina’s most beautiful natural wonders. The glacier itself is about 5 km (3.1 mi) wide and has an average height of 74 m (240 ft) above the surface of the water.

Glacier calving, also known as ice calving, or iceberg calving, is the breaking of ice chunks from the edge of a glacier. The sudden release and breaking away of a mass of ice from a glacier or iceberg often causes large waves around the area and can result in a “shooter” which is a large chunk of the submerged portion of the iceberg surfacing above the water. The ice that breaks away can be classified as an iceberg, but may also be a growler, bergy bit, or a crevasse wall breakaway. The entry of the ice into the water causes large, and often hazardous waves.”

LINK

[vtsnowedin]

That glacier's calving face is on a freshwater lake and is over 200 miles from where that lake drains via river to the Atlantic.

[theluckycountry]

... the company claimed that decreasing electricity prices in Chile and the effects of climate change on its water supply make its current financial structure unsustainable.

Reminds me of those 'darling' solar thermal stations they build across the globe, I don't think a one ever made it out of the Red. It was a cool physics experiment though.

[ROCKMAN]

The Columbia Ice Field in Canada is the largest ice mass in North/South America and has a very well documented decrease starting in the 1800's. Not that this refutes man's impact on the global climate but just shows in isx not a simple model.

[vtsnowedin]

When I look at what we know about the ice ages coming and going without any input from mankind over a half million years and the fact that the last retreat of the ice was just ten thousand years or so ago so can we be sure the current retreat is something we have caused or just nature finishing what it started ten thousand years ago?