[Zardoz]

hum.. if water flooding is that much of a problem, why is it that Abqaiq, with its 95% water cut, is still producing 100 000s barrels.. every single day?

What did it used to produce?

[whereagles]

Well, that's the point. Water-flooding 'Ain dur and Shedgum isn't a catastrophe. It's the normal procedure to keep those fields producing. Sure, production drops from 2 mbd to 1 mbd, but still goes on as normal. Meanwhile Khurais enters the pic and you got that 1 mbd loss covered for. All in business as usual fashion. You can go out and buy that Ferrari roadster you've always wanted

[whereagles]

When he speaks of 'Ain Dar being 88% depleted, that's % from oil in place or estimated recoverable reserves?

[Newsseeker]

When he speaks of 'Ain Dar being 88% depleted, that's % from oil in place or estimated recoverable reserves?

My guess is URR but you're right he doesn't say.

[sameu]

I'd like to hear "the word on the street". Who's talking to the refinery workers? What's the trend?

yeah good point we need some 'insiders info'

[ohanian]

Thus a near-term increase in asphalt and resulting price decline suggests increasing fraction of production comes from South Ghawar, North Ghawar is peaked, thus Ghawar as a whole has peaked.

Oh me God! Ghawar has peaked! Whose fault is it?

Well, it's not my fault And it's not your fault

It's the asphalt!!!

[Newsseeker]

In this revisions post I want to update my views on Ghawar reserves incorporating 4 main changes:
1. A model base assumption error in the way initial reserves in Uthmaniyah were calculated is corrected.
2. The data vintage for the Linux oil saturation map has been revised to 2002 (from 2004).
3. 2002 based figures are re-based to 2006 by adjusting for 4 years production at 5 million barrles per day.
4. The production prognosis for Hawiyah has been revised down.
These adjustments result in the initial whole field reserves figure rising to 173 billion barrels and show the field in a more severly depleted state in 2006 than previously shown.

link

[Tanada]

On the one hand updating an educated guess is OK, but on the other hand we will never really know which guess was better because there are too many other factors clouding the issue.

[Uninspired123]

An oil drum poster made a very good comment earlier saying that we won't know this summer if KSA can increase production or not and then determine peak specifically because of the refined product bottleneck. KSA will likely hold back product while crude prices fall due to decreasing demand for the product from the U.S. Once refineries get back to normal operation then and then only can we tell if saudi can ramp up for worldwide production shortfalls. So we might have to wait a bit longer before we can truly infer that KSA has peaked. If any part of this post sounds stupid it's because im still learning .

[Tanada]

An oil drum poster made a very good comment earlier saying that we won't know this summer if KSA can increase production or not and then determine peak specifically because of the refined product bottleneck. KSA will likely hold back product while crude prices fall due to decreasing demand for the product from the U.S. Once refineries get back to normal operation then and then only can we tell if saudi can ramp up for worldwide production shortfalls. So we might have to wait a bit longer before we can truly infer that KSA has peaked. If any part of this post sounds stupid it's because im still learning .

I am still learning too so don;t worry about it, but the idea you stated is only true in so far as the relationship between the USA and Oil dominates the world market. With China and India growing at these levels it is possible that there will be a world shortfall even if the USA does not increase imports.

If a physical shortfall happens because KSA/OPEC can't produce enough then we are at effective peak. If it is a pollitical tactic and they just do not produce all they can we are not. Now for the Trillion dollar question, how do you tell the difference?

[Newsseeker]

To bottleneck or not to bottleneck? To decline or not to decline? It depresses me to know that it will probably be 5-10 years before we know the godawful truth about KSA's oil. By then it may be too late.

[Fredrik]

It depresses me to know that it will probably be 5-10 years before we know the godawful truth about KSA's oil. By then it may be too late.

Hey, I'd be quite happy if I could be sure that during the next 5-10 years, there will be enough oil to keep us uncertain if we're past peak or not...

[Newsseeker]

I am posting this for those people who can figure out what the hell Stuart is saying. If you know then please translate it. And post here. Thanks!

This analysis is a summary of my attempt to understand two pictures, which implicitly pose two questions.

Stuart's Analysis

[PraiseDoom]

I am posting this for those people who can figure out what the hell Stuart is saying. If you know then please translate it. And post here. Thanks!

This analysis is a summary of my attempt to understand two pictures, which implicitly pose two questions.

Stuart's Analysis

There used to be LOTS of oil! Then we used it to drive SUV's, Now there isn't near as much left. RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!!!

[kjmclark]

Here it is in a nutshell: The recent Saudi production cuts are most likely because the production in the world's best field is starting fall off, not because the Saudi's are trying to maintain prices.

Here's the slightly longer version: Ghawar is the world's largest oil field. It has been historically been treated as several separate oil fields, with different characteristics. Importantly, the northern portions of Ghawar have the best conditions: high quality light oil and good flow characteristics. The southern areas have heavier oil and poorer flow characteristics.

The gist of Stuart's post is that the northern portions of Ghawar are watering out. The Saudi's have pumped water into the edges of Ghawar to maintain oil pressure, so they don't have to pump oil out. Using water to push the oil out has some problems, most importantly there is a good deal of oil that gets left behind when the water pushes by. When a field waters out, you get more and more water, and less and less oil, each day.

Since the northern fields are the best parts of the world's most important oil field, the Saudis are going to experience significant declines from these fields. Stuart thinks it's likely that they are already have significant problems with water in these fields and they are quickly increasing their drilling rig count to attempt to deal with the problem. He has concluded that the current Saudi production cuts are due to production problems, not voluntary efforts to maintain balance in the oil market.

[Leanan]

Expect record high gas prices this summer. Maybe even shortages.

[kjmclark]

Expect record high gas prices this summer. Maybe even shortages.

Yeah. The other way to put it is the problem we've all been talking about is basically here. Not only higher prices this summer, but the pattern of new records each summer will most likely continue, and each year may see progressively higher increases. As Simmons puts it, if Ghawar has peaked, Saudi Arabia has peaked, and the world has peaked. It's possible, but IMHO not all that likely, that new projects coming on line will deal with production falling from Ghawar.

Another, potentially bigger problem depending on your point of view: as fractional_flow has been pointing out, these fields may water out quickly. Below a certain oil/water mix threshold, you get almost all oil. Once the water has flowed past a given area, and crossed that threshold, you get almost all water.