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THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 18 Sep 2016, 19:01:37

Rod_Cloutier wrote:John Michael Greer of the Archdruid report made a prediction at the beginning of 2016 that the Saudi Arabia House of Saud would be gone by the end of this year:


Doomers tend not to keep scorecards such that when these predictions are made, heads bobble in agreement, and when the predictions prove untrue, nobody even remembers the original prediction.

The overall theme is an ideological basis. Doomers don't like Saudi Arabia (not many do, really) and hence predicting they'll fold is more about sharing a mutual dislike, like burning an American flag in Iran. It's not really a prediction.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 18 Sep 2016, 20:59:27

I take it you didn't read the oildrum pieces?


most people probably have....back when they were posted a decade ago. Low and behold Haradh III was an amazing success, huge success controlling water influx at Utimayah, higher recoveries at the north end all the doom and gloom posted on OilDrum a decade ago ended up being ...wrong. This all published in SPE. I will make a point of putting this information out over the next few days.

Robert Rapier was likely the only one posting on the Oildrum who had it even close to being right. Everyone else took the view ....oh the Saudis are lying, lets prove it by some bogus satellite imaging etc etc. Jesus wept. There is not a single person who posted there who had access to any data other than what was in the public. And the nonsense you keep posting from one of the SPE papers did not talk about serious water encroachment but was on the contrary all about how through the planned implementation of horizontal mulitlateral, down hole shutoffs and drawdown management they kept the waterflood progressing as was predicted with zero breakthrough. Rather than a disaster story this is a story about how proper reservoir management can improve overall recovery.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 18 Sep 2016, 22:58:20

It's just that Haradh III, along with Khurais, Khursaniya, Qatif, Abu Hadriya, Harmaliyah are the last of the Great SA giants. Sad. Now they are just overworked old whores lol Given their last for you rock and the greedy American consumer


Well lets see ....SA has claimed a lot of P3 reserves well and above what they are currently credited with. I think it is double that number. Now of course you will say "they are just lying" which is pretty much what you said back in 2005 or so which of course proved to be wrong.

And until such time as you quit consuming oil products you should just shut the f$#k up.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 19 Sep 2016, 09:13:55

rockdoc123 wrote:until such time as you quit consuming oil products you should just shut the f$#k up.


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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 12:19:40

Thought I would take the time to point out some of the things that have been happening in Saudi Arabia since the megaprojects. For those who can’t remember the megaprojects were undertook by Aramco to bring on additional oil production capacity from older fields that had been underperforming (eg. Haradah), were shut-in and suspended previously (Khurais) or had other challenging issues (Shaybah, Manifa). The plan was to achieve a 12.5 MMb/d spare capacity (spare capacity being used in the SPE terminology of production which can be achieved within 30 days with little additional capital influx). According to Aramco annual reports and a number of SPE papers all of these projects have been completed as planned. Manifa one of the largest offshore heavy oil fields had been delayed for a very short period due to a lack of demand for crude type but eventually Aramco proceeded and by the end of 2013 Manifa was up to a 900,000 bopd capacity. Shaybah was a better result than anticipated and ended up being a 1 MMbopd capacity versus the planned 700,000 bopd capacity. Aramco has stated they see no need to further expand spare capacity for the next decade and instead have focused their activities on oil field development and natural gas E&P.

One of Aramco's main focus areas has been in terms of what it refers to as the Intelligent Field Program. This program merges initiatives with regard to Real Time drilling operations, Real Time geosteering, Intelligent field operations and Event Solution Field development into one overall program that coordinates all of these formerly separate activities. The idea was first described in print in SPE 129706, Abdulkarim et al, 2010, Overview of Saudi Aramco’s Intelligent Field Program.. Basically all aspects of the field from drilling through production through intervention is remotely monitored using downhole and above ground sensors which allows decisions to be made immediately that previously would have taken days to weeks and in many cases identifies potential issues before they happen. Aramco built a huge data centre in order to handle monitoring of the massive amounts of data coming from fields and additional put upgrades to their super computer system that allows for integration of the subsurface monitored data into the finite element production simulations. Aramco notes that as of the end of 2015 they had 19 Intelligent Fields and are planning on converting all of their fields to Intelligent Fields over the next number of years. They also state that the work made possible by Intelligent Field design will allow them to move average recovery factor to 70%. This is important given that back in 2005 when we started discussing Saudi Arabia in detail Aramco’s view was a 50% overall recovery was reasonable (and many in industry thought that was aggressive). So basically that is a 40% uplift on recoverable reserves and this is one of the reasons Aramco indicate they have been able to continually replace recoverable proven reserves through the reserve recertification process.

Throughout the period following the mega projects Aramco continued to explore for both oil and gas. The following chart shows the number of discoveries made in new oil and gas fields in the period 2010 – 2015 and the total number of fields that have been discovered historically (as is normal Aramco makes no claim as to reserve size for these discoveries but discovery well production rates seem to be reasonable). In addition, Aramco have noted they continue to make new reservoir discoveries in-field from zones that previously had either not been tested or were by-passed. As an example in their 2010 annual report they note they had added 6 new oil reservoirs and 3 new gas reservoirs to existing fields.

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Probably the more interesting story coming out of Saudi Arabia is it’s continually accelerating push for natural gas including unconventional. This shouldn’t be surprising given the ever increasing local demand for oil. This is shown in the two following charts.
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In a recent paper (where the above chart is included)
SPE 172955-MS, Case, M et al, 2015, The Opportunity Cost of Exploration for Unconventional Gas in Saudi Arabia
The authors go to great lengths to calculate out the value of offsetting local oil consumption with gas either from gas imports from Qatar by pipeline, LNG imports or production of conventional and unconventional gas in Saudi Arabia. What the authors found was it made very good economic sense for Saudi Arabia to develop it’s own gas supply and that unconventional gas was an economic tradeoff for burning oil.

My own way of looking at this is through energy offset. Currently Saudi Arabia is consuming 3 MMB/d that could otherwise be exported. In terms of energy equivalent that would equate to an offset of 17 Bcf/d on top of the current Kingdom’s gas production of 8 Bcf/d. The value here is obvious if at their netback for oil is 440/bbl then that would equate to an additional $43 billion US in revenues per year which would almost offset their current budget deficit. Saudi Arabia has been steadily increasing it’s conventional reservoired gas production specifically in the offshore Arabian Gulf as well as in the northern Red Sea. At the same time they have been aggressively pursuing an unconventional gas program since 2013. Their main focus appears to be currently in the area in and around Ghawar from tighter carbonate formations as well as in the Rub al Khali. In 2013 they drilled 29 exploration wells focused on testing unconventional reservoirs and investigated various programs of horizontal multi-stage fracking, micro seismic and various fracking fluids. As well Aramco points to advances made in high resolution seismic that allows them to identify “sweet spots” in unconventional reservoirs. To date they have identified 7 potential targets including Khuff tight carbonates, Unayzah, Jauf, Qusaiba, Sarah and Saq tight sandstones and Qasim shales. It should be noted that in North America tight sandstones have generally been the most prolific producers versus shales which should lower the risk somewhat for Saudi Arabia. It is early days for them obviously but they state that gas from unconventional discoveries in the northern areas will be delivered to new facilities at Wa’ad Al Shamaal by the end of 2017 when those facilities are commissioned.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 19:25:41

pstarr - You do understand that rockdoc isn't the "industry"...dying or otherwise? You do understand that no one that the Rockman has worked with for more the 4 decades has ever expressed any serious concern about the health of the industry. Their current employer? Hell yes. LOL.

As pointed out before much of the industry is thrilled at the prospect of taking advantage of companies crippled by the fallen oil price. Currently those companies, like the Rockman's (and ExxonMobil), are tickled silly at the prospect of buying PROVED PRODUCING reserves cheaper then what what companies were spending to drill for UNPROVEN SPECULATIVE reserves. This is the time when some companies are getting the ground work for some of their most profitable years. Check out the history of Hilcorp:

"Hilcorp employs approximately 1,000 people in 11 different regions, including the Cook Inlet in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Rocky Mountains. Hildebrand founded Hilcorp, building it up little by little since 1989 by purchasing predominantly discarded assets by major E&P oil and gas companies and utilizing its superior technology to develop those assets and, occasionally, to sell those assets for a profit. Hilcorp did exactly this in September, agreeing to part ways with three fields in the central Gulf of Mexico shelf that it had acquired previously from Chevron. In total, Hilcorp received $550 million by selling these properties."

And: "Hildebrand might be offering the most robust, across-the-board monetary perk ever seen. In 2006, Hildebrand began a campaign known as Double Drive, which aimed to double Hilcorp's value, its oil-field production rate, and its net oil and gas reserves by 2010. If met, he promised each employee a voucher for $50,000 toward the purchase of a new car. With that goal met, approximately 700 employees received a $50,000 voucher in 2011. The new drive, dubbed Dream 2015, will award Hilcorp's 1,000 employees with a $100,000 bonus – that's right, $100,000 – if the company again doubles its value, net production, and reserves by 2015."

And what do you think a plan developed 2015, with oil prices crashing, was based upon...drilling shales or buying properties on the cheap from crippled companies? Hilcorp, a part of the industry, isn't dying, is it? You should understand that back when oil was $100+/bbl Hilcorp sold millions of bbls of oil from fields he bought in the 90's and early 00's for $20/bbl...or less
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 21:39:42

I do appreciate your diagnosis


From the same guy who says Wind Farm SCAMS are a great idea.

The Sockman doesn't know shit from shinola. His billunaire "investor"....hahahaa yeah sure. Suchas are the only ones who beieve his bs.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 22:06:08

"Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... to-survive

For debt repayments and not new debt.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 22:23:25

ralfy wrote:"Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... to-survive

For debt repayments and not new debt.


And Scamerica needs 4 trillion to repair its crumbling infrastructure. So whats the big deal? Its only worthless fake ponzi money. See, when you only have worthless fake ponzi money you have to do fake ponzi energy like ponzi Solar. It make Scamerica grate again cause in Scamerica everything is a SCAM.

Thank goodness we have the nGeni device and the brilliant Dr. Arnoux to make it happen.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 22:23:55

how about staying on topic? Saudi Arabia/Ghawar etc.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 22:34:33

pstarr - "The industry must fail at some point." What do you mean at some point? The "industry" has failed a number of times in the last 50 years. Compard the recent "failure" brought on by an average yearly oil price in the $30's per bbl to the 1998 failure at less then $20/bbl. Or go all the way back when the "industry" failed 30+ years ago when the price of oil fell 70% compared to the recent failure due to a 50% drop.

Just teasing. LOL. Actually the industry has never failed. Many individual companies have failed in the past. And other companies (like Hilcorp) ultimately made many $BILLIONS as a result of those failures. Just as there are companies today that will make many $BILLIONS in the future buying proven reserves for a fraction of what the currently failing companies spent developing them.

But it's easy to predict when the industry will fail: when economies no longer require a significant amount of oil to function. I'll others much smarter then the Rockman make that prediction. LOL.

And what are the Rockman's thoughts based upon, you might ask? In case you haven't guessed the Rockman has been a career development/production geologist for more then 40 years. For instance his most profitable NG drilling venture was in the late 80's when it was selling for about $1/MCF. And why? The wells, if drilled and completed during the recent boom, would have cost about $400,000 each. But because of the bust back then they only cost $50,000. In fact during the on!y time in the previous 50 years when Exxon did not have one rig drilling in S Texas the Rockman had 2 turning to the right. Part of the industry has met failure. And the other part is giddy with anticipation. If folks keep painting the "industry" with just one brush they miss some critical dynamics going on right under there noses. Like one of the largest transfer of fossil fuel wealth seen in many decades. Neither the oil reserves nor the world's gluttonous appetite for them have disappeared.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby hvacman » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 12:20:27

ROCKMAN wrote: In fact during the on!y time in the previous 50 years when Exxon did not have one rig drilling in S Texas the Rockman had 2 turning to the right.


If you are drilling on the southern hemisphere, do they turn to the left? :)
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 14:11:36

"If you are drilling on the southern hemisphere, do they turn to the left? " LOL. Just so folks understand: the way drill bits and drill pipe are screwed together if you rotated to the left (counter clockwise) they would unscrew and fall off. Thus "turning to the right" means drilling ahead.

So no: the Coriolanus forces have no effect on drilling ops in the Southern Hemisphere. Except, of course, on the way the toilet water swirls down under. LOL
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 15:29:47

"the way the toilet water swirls down under. LOL"

Which is where the output of PStarr's custom keyboard always winds up.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 15:33:30

ennui - Now you're being rude to our buddy, pstarr. Funny as hell but still rude. LOL.
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