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THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 28 Feb 2021, 14:46:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Gas in Toledo is now around $2.659 at the cheaper stations around town. That means prices have gone up about $0.50/gallon since New Years Day 2021. How are things in your end of the world?

Over time, it seems like the gas prices here in Lexington, KY, track the gas prices in Toledo fairly closely (say, within 20 cents or so). Overall, I'd say about as closely as deltas I notice within a 50 mile radius of Lexington in small towns, just noticing signs at random times of the year. I find the economics of the market interesting. Of course, I probably just notice it more given the giant signs out on pretty much all gas stations.


I used to travel monthly down the length of I-75 in Ohio from Toledo at the north end to Cincinnati at the south end. An interesting pattern checking freeway gas stations on both sides north and south bound is that fuel prices in Toledo south to Findlay and Dayton south to Cincinnati were very closely aligned but in the middle third prices would steadily decrease, then climb back up from the half-way point through the state. Once I figured out this economic reality I made sure to fill up half way down and then fill up again half way back up. The truck stops in those middle area were also always the busiest along the route so clearly the hi-lo-hi nature of Ohio prices was well known to over the road travelers in the semi truck driving industry as well.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Feb 2021, 16:36:38

Tanada wrote:I used to travel monthly down the length of I-75 in Ohio from Toledo at the north end to Cincinnati at the south end. An interesting pattern checking freeway gas stations on both sides north and south bound is that fuel prices in Toledo south to Findlay and Dayton south to Cincinnati were very closely aligned but in the middle third prices would steadily decrease, then climb back up from the half-way point through the state. Once I figured out this economic reality I made sure to fill up half way down and then fill up again half way back up. The truck stops in those middle area were also always the busiest along the route so clearly the hi-lo-hi nature of Ohio prices was well known to over the road travelers in the semi truck driving industry as well.

Interesting. Having retired mainly by being frugal vs. earning a huge salary (a habit imbued by my parents), part of the reason I paid attention was to see if there was a discernable pattern to suggest buying gas at X when I traveled. Though prices were often different by up to a quarter a gallon or so, I never noticed enough of a trend in my area to try and exploit it. One time in Richmond, KY, it would be 20 cents more, and later it would be 20 cents less, for example.

Clearly the market works, but again, I find the variation in HOW it works rather interesting. (And yes, I am very much a nerd).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Feb 2021, 16:48:19

Subjectivist wrote:Toledo is about half and half, you can still find $2.299/gal in some outlets but as of this morning many have switched over to the $2.429-$2.459/gal range which is a heck of an overnight jump. Did someone blow up a tanker and I just missed it on the news?

In my world, 20 or 30 cent jumps (or drops) happen OFTEN. Of course, looking at it, generally there's been a several dollar WTI move in that direction in the days/weeks before that happened, overall.

It doesn't take anything spectacular, just moderate price movement in a relatively short amount of time. Re the past couple decades, nothing new to see here.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Sun 28 Feb 2021, 18:08:41

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
Tanada wrote:
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:Gas prices are now up a full dollar in my area.....up to 2.79

In late 2020....they were hovering between 1.69-1.80


Interesting, care to share what region you live it? It would give the numbers a bit of context.


South of you.....if your location is correct.

So in your tiny mind, anywhere south of latitude X is the same, re gasoline prices? No difference between a big city and out in the middle of nowhere? No difference between states?

Are you so paranoid that you think if you say, for example, Rural NM, vs. Southern CA big city that it lets the mean ninjas with the black helicopters, directed by "them", come track you down?

Mostly devoid of meaningful content and paranoid (re your conspiracy theories). At least you're consistent, so there's one attaboy for you. :roll:



I didn't mention anywhere in particular except generally south of the previous poster.

I am not willing to give out specifics on a board with individuals such as yourself who clearly cannot handle any dissenting opinions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 02 Mar 2021, 14:21:36

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:I didn't mention anywhere in particular except generally south of the previous poster.

I am not willing to give out specifics on a board with individuals such as yourself who clearly cannot handle any dissenting opinions.

Yeah, I get it. Your paranoia is further proof of how delusional you are. Bray on. And pretend the NSA, IRS, police, etc. can't find you if you just don't give your location on this board. :lol:

And of course, you're the ultimate agreeable chap who handles dissenting opinions perfectly well, every single time. Fancy that. :roll:

You know, in the real world, thinking adults can disagree about all kinds of things and discuss them without even remotely thinking of going postal or even getting angry. Not that I'd expect someone as clearly immature as you to actually grasp that fact.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 06 Oct 2021, 20:55:55

NW Ohio is now firmly over $3/gal despite the "summer driving season" being well past us now.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 07 Oct 2021, 10:26:32

Americans are paying the most for gas in seven years
The national average for a gallon of gas is at the highest since 2014.

In some places Americans are paying more than $5 per gallon of gas.

Gas prices are more than $1 higher than this time last year amid a jump in oil prices.


CNBC
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Oct 2021, 11:28:10

Tanada wrote:NW Ohio is now firmly over $3/gal despite the "summer driving season" being well past us now.

So is central KY, last time I checked, at $3.16. But that was Tuesday, with WTI right about $79 (the recent high), but clearly, at that point, WTI had been rising as a trend (up about 8 bucks in a couple weeks).

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

And when it was $75ish 3 months or so back, gas we hovering at $3.

My reading of the news says that much of the recent price rise is due to:

1). OPEC not raising its production quotas (meaningfully, anyway), and letting oil prices continue to rise.
2). Recent drops in storage of crude oil.

So the recent price rise seems rather rational to me. The market isn't assuming a net overall crude oil demand drop until they see it, IMO. Things like how Covid-19 will be over the winter are VERY much in flux, so things like jet fuel demand are highly uncertain.

Now, as we get into cold weather, hopefully that turns around meaningfully, as it often does, as driving demand drops. (Not making any bets on Covid. It's amazing ly random re case changes over time, IMO).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Oct 2021, 11:35:26

Tanada wrote:
Americans are paying the most for gas in seven years
The national average for a gallon of gas is at the highest since 2014.

In some places Americans are paying more than $5 per gallon of gas.

Gas prices are more than $1 higher than this time last year amid a jump in oil prices.


CNBC

The easiest way to hedge for this, over time, is to own some oil stock that tracks the price of crude reasonably well. They're volatile, of course, but some pay nice dividends.

Chevron (CVX) is paying a dividend a little over 5% currently, which these days is very decent for a company with some growth potential.

What I like to do is sell puts on CVX when the stock market goes in the ditch or when oil prices drop a lot. As I recall, near the market low in March 2020, I sold a couple month put on CVX at a 50 strike for nearly $500. Hard to lose on that over the long run, as long as you're willing to hold CVX through low oil prices, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tuike » Fri 08 Oct 2021, 05:13:15

Gasoline prices are rising where I live: 1.80 EUR/l. In more sparsely populated areas: 2.00 EUR/l. Gasoline prices have never before been two euros per liter.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Fri 08 Oct 2021, 12:21:47

26mm bbls/month

Image

On the one hand exposing US drivers to world prices is best for communicating the "price signal" that declining supply will send, OTOH, fuel is the most strategic of all commodities and blasting through it ASAP really isn't all that wise it seems to me.

Of course TPTB would need to acknowledge that supply will eventually decline before they come to that conclusion.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 08 Oct 2021, 18:27:33

Pops wrote:26mm bbls/month

Image

On the one hand exposing US drivers to world prices is best for communicating the "price signal" that declining supply will send, OTOH, fuel is the most strategic of all commodities and blasting through it ASAP really isn't all that wise it seems to me.

Of course TPTB would need to acknowledge that supply will eventually decline before they come to that conclusion.

In the last forty years the US refiners have made quite a business of importing crude from countries that lacked refining capacity and doing the job for them prior to it being exported to the world market. No problem there but that chart does not differentiate between imported crude or domestic as a source for that exported finished product. I suspect that the fraction of exported finished product of all types is small compared to the total and with Biden's restrictions on oil production here it will soon be less then it was under Trump if it is not already.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 15 Oct 2021, 21:28:24

Regular 87 octane gasoline hit $3.299 a gallon in Toledo today, highest price since 2015.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Revi » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 21:17:51

Is it a form of demand destruction? If it gets high enough people will stop driving so much. That's the theory. I know that people have to drive to work an hour each way, but can we continue to do that? I'm going to drive an hour each way tomorrow, but I know it's not going to keep going like this. Something's got to give.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 06 Dec 2021, 08:15:05

Tanada wrote:Regular 87 octane gasoline hit $3.299 a gallon in Toledo today, highest price since 2015.


I only buy 98 octane for my vehicles and that's up around $2/L here now. Or $8 a gallon. It sounds a lot but In reality it's only $80 or so a week, less if I'm out and about on the bike. I think that unless you have to commute long distances, or are desperately poor, these prices, to my mind, are still cheap! It's only doubled in the last 20 years, which is just below normal inflation, at least here. I spend more on cigarettes in a day than gas and my 4x4 is a V6, the Bike a supersport gas guzzler.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Doly » Mon 06 Dec 2021, 12:28:00

What is the general opinion these days here about how peak oil may change gasoline prices? In the old times there used to be two camps: one that said prices would just go up and up, and another that said that prices would get unpredictably volatile. What are people here thinking today?
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Mon 06 Dec 2021, 13:25:56

Thanks for talking about PO, Doly.

If there is a mismatch between supply and demand, price is the equalizer. Something in surplus has a lower price than something rare. But because oil is the master resource there is a lot that happens beyond that.
Higher price can get more supply if it is physically, technically possible to get.
High price can also cause substitution if there are suitable substitutes possible
Low price can lead to low supply even when production is easy, if it isn't profitable.
and on and on.

My thought way back, maybe 2012, was that peaking would lead to both higher price AND greater volatility. Back then I thought high price would drag down the economy and that would lower price in a recession/boom see-saw.

Though that may yet be true, I didn't realize to what lengths governments would go to prop up the old system, keep the haves having, ensure future catastrophe by prolonging the concept that our lifestyle isn't negotiable. Huge subsidies to the economy are their own problem, "tapering" is like the 5th horseman of economic apocalypse—I guess he rides a green horse, LOL.

As it is we have had both. Low price in the 90's & 2010's, high price in the oughts and perhaps soon—looks like LTO growth is is mostly down to the Permian and not much surplus anywhere else. Not even sure that KSA has much.

If decline turns out to be constant and steep I'd guess price will stay high mostly, except when the economy can't keep up or some temporary event causes a surplus. As long as decline isn't very steep, or we continue on a plateau for many years, substituting tar, natgas liquids, corn ethanol, PEVs, etc price will continue as it has, reacting to every hurricane and headline.

Says me.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Dec 2021, 13:35:24

Revi wrote:Is it a form of demand destruction? If it gets high enough people will stop driving so much. That's the theory. I know that people have to drive to work an hour each way, but can we continue to do that? I'm going to drive an hour each way tomorrow, but I know it's not going to keep going like this. Something's got to give.

People, generally, don't have to "drive to work an hour each way". The average US work commute is only about 27 minutes a day, round trip.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... rises.html

And that means people spend a hell of a lot of time at traffic lights, since the vast majority of such commutes are in a city. So just using HEV's (much less plug-in hybrids or BEV's) would drastically reduce gasoline use (and cost) for the commutes.

Now, if people CHOOSE to commute a long way for economic reasons or lifestyle reasons, that's up to them.

One can consciously decide NOT to let a commute dominate their life. For example:

I deliberately lived literally 10 minutes from work (a mile and a half, so most of that being waiting for traffic lights) for my career. I hated driving in traffic, and I loved saving the money on lower rents and less car expenses, plus wasting less time driving. And I could walk to work and drop my car off at the shop on the way any time I wanted, when the weather was decent, with almost zero inconvenience.

I had a friend who in his 40's, got a computer degree, and moved from central KY to Seattle to get a great programming job. He chose to live in an apartment that was literally, across the street from where he worked (so the only commute was crossing the street). Thus, he didn't even have to buy a car at all, and could utilize mass transit in Seattle.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Doly » Fri 10 Dec 2021, 09:53:03

Now, if people CHOOSE to commute a long way for economic reasons or lifestyle reasons, that's up to them.


I understand for some people with some jobs in some locations there isn't an awful lot of a choice. As in, the job doesn't pay much, prices in the local area are unaffordable, so a long commute is the only affordable option.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 10 Dec 2021, 10:56:20

Speaking of choice things have gotten really weird in NW Ohio over the last week with prices ranging from $3.299/gallon down to $2.959/gallon all within a fifteen mile drive to pick up a prescription in the town next door. It might be time to dust off the gas-finder app I used to use so I can get the best price along any particular route.
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