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THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 05 May 2018, 09:55:39

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M




Wont that depend on the fracking/shale production not declining? I heard the decline rates will be steep.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 May 2018, 13:22:56

Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M




Wont that depend on the fracking/shale production not declining? I heard the decline rates will be steep.

That is why it is a possibility not a certainty. Individual fracked wells do have a steep decline rate but the total fracked production depends on the number and quality of new wells being drilled to replace old. Just when they will run out of new places to drill is the question but I'm betting (on very little real evidence) that it will be several years down the road and in the mean time higher gas prices and inroads by BEVs will reduce US demand by more then our net imports today. That advice and $3.00 will buy you a cup of coffee. :)
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 05 May 2018, 17:25:43

Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M


Wont that depend on the fracking/shale production not declining? I heard the decline rates will be steep.


that was the theory a lot of us were buying into in 2013 and 2014. Fortunately it turned out that when prices collapsed in late 204 and bottomed out in January 2016 we got a dry run on just how fast those fracking fields would decline. It turned out that when drilling built back up to about half the peak rate in early 2017 the amount of fracked oil entering the market stopped declining and stabilized. Then as prices rose and fracking rates increased we crossed the threshold and today the quantity of fracked oil entering the market has been on a steady up swing for about 8 months now.

So we learned a valuable new bit of information. As fracking rates decline below a threshold the production rate starts dropping significantly, however the stable point for the number of total wells drilled and completed in a month is only about 60 percent of the max rate.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 05 May 2018, 19:33:01

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M

Wow. Thanks for pointing that out, vts.

I knew we were exporting oil, but I had no idea it had ramped up that much.

It looks like for the past 12 years or so, the total exports of oil and oil products have really been rising persistently.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TEXUS2&f=M

For some reason, I was thinking that was a fairly recent phenomenon -- I think the fact that it was supposedly illegal in most cases until recently.

Re stories like this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/busi ... texas.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 06 May 2018, 06:56:53

We have always exported finished product with the refineries acting as a sub contractor between the crude oil producer and the final customer. For that matter the ban on exporting American crude has always had some exceptions to it as it was more a political statement then a practical matter. Alaskan crude has been shipped to Japan from the start and North Dakota and Montana crude sometimes get refined in Canada. The oil companies maximize their profits and we have plenty of gas etc. Whats not to like?
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 06 May 2018, 11:04:08

Just some factual clarity about US exports of finished refinery products and crude oil. From the EIA since the early 90’s to 2004 refinery exports held constant around 800k bbls/yr to 900k bbls/yr. Since 2004 they have ramped up significantly to around 3.5 million bbls per year.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... pexus2&f=m

As just pointed out there has never been an effective ban on exporting US oil. But the volume had been small until recently: around 280k/day to almost nothing. But since 2012 it has increased up to over 1.6 million bbls per day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... rexus2&f=m

Of course, these are gross numbers…not net. Obviously, we import much more oil then we export. And a significant amount of oil we produce/import is the feedstock for the refinery products we export. Current gross oil input to US crude oil distillation units is around 16.3 million bbls per day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 06 May 2018, 12:29:24

Well, just one more item showing that fuel prices aren't high enough in the US to keep up with the rest of the world on AGW mitigation.

Fuel prices are rising again just as automakers pull back on sedans

...
For now, though customers see no need to push toward more fuel efficient vehicles.

"There is really no demand for more fuel efficiency," Lindland said. "Consumers are very happy with the fuel efficiency they are currently enjoying."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/05/fuel-pr ... edans.html

1). NO sign first worlders "can't afford oil", even as oil gets to about $30 above the supposed ETP MAP price, and big SUV/truck sales persist, and people continue to move AWAY from more efficient sedans.

2). Kind of ironic, even as the UK says it will ban even HEV's like the Prius in 2040 in in the news recently.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -from-2040

3). Again, in the face of this, not moving to a CO2 tax on motor fuels ASAP to hasten people moving away from gas guzzlers is madness. If people don't care about $3ish dollar gas, then maybe $4, $5, $7, etc. would do the trick. The vast majority of office workers don't need a 7 person giant SUV or truck to get to work or buy groceries. For those who TRULY do to do their job, some kind of business tax deduction could help.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 06 May 2018, 19:27:27

It seems like every time demand gets close to supply, they raise the prices. Is this on purpose to cause demand destruction? Seems plausible
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 06 May 2018, 21:08:12

Armageddon wrote:It seems like every time demand gets close to supply, they raise the prices. Is this on purpose to cause demand destruction? Seems plausible

Assuming many suppliers and no collusion, a rational supplier will charge as much as the market will bear. If supplies are getting tight, that's a sign that the constrained market MIGHT bear higher prices, and for some sellers, testing that out might be worth it. If they're wrong, they might lose some short term sales and upset some loyal customers.

This is how markets with many suppliers and no collusion work generally. The interesting thing about the gasoline market is how easy it is for everyone (both buyers and sellers) to constantly compare prices in their market. Also, with a commodity, the competition is more pure than for differentiated products. (I don't much care which major brand of gasoline goes in my car since it runs fine on all of them. However, I DO care if my shoes fit well, so when I buy tennis shoes at Walmart, a good fit/comfort is more important than a couple of bucks difference in price. But if gas station X is a dime or two higher than gas station Y within sign reading distance, I'm going into gas station Y unless it's jammed.)

(Even with the internet, how many people scrutinize prices on the many things they buy so consistently? Doing so would take a fair amount of work).
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 May 2018, 10:40:10

I don't buy premium grade gasoline but noticed at the pump that it is selling for $3.29 locally, which is a good spread from regular at $2.85!
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 16 May 2018, 12:05:29

Tanada wrote:I don't buy premium grade gasoline but noticed at the pump that it is selling for $3.29 locally, which is a good spread from regular at $2.85!

Everything I've read from reasonably credible sources says there is NO point to buying premium gasoline, UNLESS you have a vehicle (generally high performance) that specifically calls for it.

All the theories that you get better gas mileage from it, etc. are bunk, when objective testing is done.

Just one more reason not to buy a "high performance" sports car.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 16 May 2018, 13:14:17

Here we can get premium that does not have any ethanol in it. I buy it for the chain saws and lawn mower which don't do well with E10.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 May 2018, 13:56:07

vtsnowedin wrote:Here we can get premium that does not have any ethanol in it. I buy it for the chain saws and lawn mower which don't do well with E10.

Have you tested it?

I see various claims of "natural" gasoline, but most of the seemingly credible sites I find say that it is generally required to have ethanol in both regular and premium in the US, so I'm skeptical of unproven claims by gas stations.

There are test kits for ethanol via the internet, but they're relatively expensive, and I don't know how reliable they are.

I've also seen supposedly "pure" gasoline advertised in containers at totally outrageous prices, like $20 a quart or some such. Sounds like a total rip-off to me.

I just opt for a gasoline stabilizer like the Stabil product for my small engines like mowers, weed eaters, etc. I can find that easily in hardware stores. In my experience, they do VERY WELL with Stabil used according to directions, for years. I don't use any gas kept over the winter in such engines, just to be safe, and I don't know the shelf life of Stabil, but a $10ish supply treats a LOT of gasoline with ethanol. With Stabil, I just use regular gasoline.

Before I used Stabil, my carbs, etc. on mowers were frequently getting eaten alive.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 May 2018, 15:54:20

pstarr wrote:Someone who has obviously never used a chainsaw should not be weighing in on a subject he/she knows nothing about.

Stabil prevents oxidative damage. Ethanol ruins o-rings in two stroke engines

What part of lawn mower do you fail to comprehend, re the conversation?

What part of "small engines" which tend to be fouled by ethanol over time do you fail to understand?

My lawn mower maker, Toro, specifically recommended using a fuel stabilizer for my current mower, made in 2015. But I guess you know more than their engineers.

A quick Google search yields:

https://www.toro.com/fuelfacts/

Add fuel stabilizer to the fuel the day you buy it.


When you can prove I know nothing about lawn mowers, be sure and get back to us.

When you can prove my experience with lawn mowers of the same brand before and after using Stabil wasn't completely different, feel free to expound on your theories.

Let's hope they're better than your economic theories, BTW.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 18 May 2018, 04:57:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Here we can get premium that does not have any ethanol in it. I buy it for the chain saws and lawn mower which don't do well with E10.

Have you tested it?

I see various claims of "natural" gasoline, but most of the seemingly credible sites I find say that it is generally required to have ethanol in both regular and premium in the US, so I'm skeptical of unproven claims by gas stations.

There are test kits for ethanol via the internet, but they're relatively expensive, and I don't know how reliable they are.

I've also seen supposedly "pure" gasoline advertised in containers at totally outrageous prices, like $20 a quart or some such. Sounds like a total rip-off to me.

I just opt for a gasoline stabilizer like the Stabil product for my small engines like mowers, weed eaters, etc. I can find that easily in hardware stores. In my experience, they do VERY WELL with Stabil used according to directions, for years. I don't use any gas kept over the winter in such engines, just to be safe, and I don't know the shelf life of Stabil, but a $10ish supply treats a LOT of gasoline with ethanol. With Stabil, I just use regular gasoline.

Before I used Stabil, my carbs, etc. on mowers were frequently getting eaten alive.

The local fuel company has Canadian connections so gets the ethanol free gas from their. They are large enough and reputable enough that I don't doubt their assertion that the top grade in ethanol free. I do add stabilizer to that gas if it is going to set in a tank for months. (backup generator.) Paying fifty cents a gallon more to save a $500 chainsaw or any of the other small engines is cheap insurance.
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Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 18 May 2018, 11:06:53

BAHA please try and stay on thread topic.

Meanwhile around these parts if you want ethanol free gas about the only place to get it is the Marina's. Boaters pay premium prices to get 'pure' gasoline because the ethanol blends suck up the humidity if the boat is stored weekdays and only used on weekends robbing you of performance.
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