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THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 21:34:06

https://www.alternet.org/environment/we ... my-down-it
"A new peer-reviewed study led by the Institute of Physics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico has undertaken a comparative review of the EROI of all the major sources of energy that currently underpin industrial civilization—namely oil, gas, coal, and uranium.For shale oil and gas, the situation is even more dire: “The EROI varies between 1.5 and 4, with an average value of 2.8. Shale oil is very similar to the tar sands; being both oil sources of very low quality. The shale gas revolution did not start because its exploitation was a very good idea; but because the most attractive economic opportunities were previously exploited and exhausted.”

In effect, the growing reliance on unconventional oil and gas has meant that, overall, the costs and inputs into energy production to keep industrial civilization moving are rising inexorably."
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 21:41:54

Shale is all hat and no cattle....
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 21:43:55

Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world's growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shal ... warns.html

Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -boom.html
Dennis Meadows "There's Nothing We Can Do"
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby kmann » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:28:31

"Shale is not a substitute for conventional crude because it takes 3 to 5 barrels of conventional to process one barrel of shale. Its API gravity is too high to be processed without the blending of conventional. Every refinery in the world is set up to process about 33° crude. The light ends just don't cut it by themselves."
Wrong.
cliffbanger, you're an idiot. Do you get paid for posting your crap? Or does stupidity just come naturally?
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:32:26

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Shale is all hat and no cattle....


I've already answered that one. And then we all discovered that you don't know anything about oil quality and were just making stuff up, apparently not even knowing how MUCH oil that hat can replace.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:35:46

Shale is not a substitute for conventional crude because it takes 3 to 5 barrels of conventional to process one barrel of shale. Its API gravity is too high to be processed without the blending of conventional. Every refinery in the world is set up to process about 33° crude. The light ends just don't cut it by themselves. It’s not much of a substitute if it can’t do any substituting. And you are obviously jealous of my education which means you must have none. WOW..Big shocker there..Remember yesterday Rock when you threw a shit fit and tried to get me censored..LOL You are such a freaking pussy it's sad...You are an enemy of reason.


It would seem you are a sock puppet of Short and nothing more. First of all not every refinery in the world is set up to process 33 API crude, that is something Short said and it is patently wrong. Most of the refineries in Europe were built to deal with Brent crude which is around 38 API and this was the problem when Libya crude was shut in because it was the main source or light oil for those refineries. Perhaps you need to understand the industry a little bit better than you do (which apparently is zero). And recently in the US they are commissioning refineries to deal with the light oil. In actual fact, it is easier to process light oil than it is moderate to heavier fractions. The issue is the specs to which the refineries were built, they can always be adjusted which is happening as we speak.

It is pretty clear to everyone here you are not a "rocket scientist" as you claim to be. No one of that background would behave the way you do on this site. And it is pretty clear you know zip about the oil and gas industry, all the insults you want to throw may way are not going to change that.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 23:18:19

rockdoc123 wrote:
Shale is not a substitute for conventional crude because it takes 3 to 5 barrels of conventional to process one barrel of shale. Its API gravity is too high to be processed without the blending of conventional. Every refinery in the world is set up to process about 33° crude. The light ends just don't cut it by themselves. It’s not much of a substitute if it can’t do any substituting. And you are obviously jealous of my education which means you must have none. WOW..Big shocker there..Remember yesterday Rock when you threw a shit fit and tried to get me censored..LOL You are such a freaking pussy it's sad...You are an enemy of reason.


It would seem you are a sock puppet of Short and nothing more. First of all not every refinery in the world is set up to process 33 API crude, that is something Short said and it is patently wrong. Most of the refineries in Europe were built to deal with Brent crude which is around 38 API and this was the problem when Libya crude was shut in because it was the main source or light oil for those refineries. Perhaps you need to understand the industry a little bit better than you do (which apparently is zero). And recently in the US they are commissioning refineries to deal with the light oil. In actual fact, it is easier to process light oil than it is moderate to heavier fractions. The issue is the specs to which the refineries were built, they can always be adjusted which is happening as we speak.

It is pretty clear to everyone here you are not a "rocket scientist" as you claim to be. No one of that background would behave the way you do on this site. And it is pretty clear you know zip about the oil and gas industry, all the insults you want to throw may way are not going to change that.



I never said I was a rocket scientist. I am a chemist at a Midwest university. .And I know you are jealous of my education because you keep bringing it up. Which shows you must have zero education...you are just a paid shill for the oil industry. And I can tell they are paying shit these days...And like I said Rockbrain. If you dont stop i will post more peer reviewed studies that will make you go cry to the mods again...You don't want to wet yourself again like yesterday do you?
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 23:20:48

World Scientists “Warning to Humanity” Signed by 1,700 Scientists Including the Majority of all Nobel Prize Winners
http://www.ucsusa.org/about/1992-world- ... eKJx49Sziw

Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... no-return/

NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We're Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites ... r_2014.pdf

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade- ... -collapse/


I told you deniers...Don't make me George Bush this button over nothing..
Dennis Meadows "There's Nothing We Can Do"
http://churchandstate.org.uk/2013/04/dennis-meadows-there-is-nothing-that-we-can-do/
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 09:39:20

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:World Scientists “Warning to Humanity” Signed by 1,700 Scientists Including the Majority of all Nobel Prize Winners
http://www.ucsusa.org/about/1992-world- ... eKJx49Sziw

I told you deniers...Don't make me George Bush this button over nothing..


I don't know what your obsession with posting 10+ year old claims is but why not stretch yourself and post things from current research on the issue of peak oil? Nobody around here gains traction by simply repeating 10+ year old studies because out here in reality things have progressed. Fracking as it has developed over the 2006-2017 time period has provided humanity with a breather on the consequences of the energy system as designed 1859-2005. Fracking is no more a permanent solution than the North Sea or Prudhoe Bay were, but it represents a heck of a lot of energy injected into the world supply system and has succeeded in causing a short term glut in world oil supply. Ignoring that by only posting 10+ year old article links, without even quotes to show what parts you want people to understand, is futile. Doing it over and over is a violation of the COC as you have been told.

Come let us reason together. Post a quote and a link, and comment on the veracity and quality of that quoted passage. Members here will eagerly discuss both the quoted passage and your commentary about it, which is a far more useful form of communication than repetitive link baiting and proclamations of superior knowledge. It would also go a long way towards proving you have some ideas of your own instead of just a minimal capability of link baiting.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 09:48:20

Tanada wrote:
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:World Scientists “Warning to Humanity” Signed by 1,700 Scientists Including the Majority of all Nobel Prize Winners
http://www.ucsusa.org/about/1992-world- ... eKJx49Sziw

I told you deniers...Don't make me George Bush this button over nothing..


I don't know what your obsession with posting 10+ year old claims is but why not stretch yourself and post things from current research on the issue of peak oil? Nobody around here gains traction by simply repeating 10+ year old studies because out here in reality things have progressed. Fracking as it has developed over the 2006-2017 time period has provided humanity with a breather on the consequences of the energy system as designed 1859-2005. Fracking is no more a permanent solution than the North Sea or Prudhoe Bay were, but it represents a heck of a lot of energy injected into the world supply system and has succeeded in causing a short term glut in world oil supply. Ignoring that by only posting 10+ year old article links, without even quotes to show what parts you want people to understand, is futile. Doing it over and over is a violation of the COC as you have been told.

Come let us reason together. Post a quote and a link, and comment on the veracity and quality of that quoted passage. Members here will eagerly discuss both the quoted passage and your commentary about it, which is a far more useful form of communication than repetitive link baiting and proclamations of superior knowledge. It would also go a long way towards proving you have some ideas of your own instead of just a minimal capability of link baiting.



Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... no-return/

NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We're Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites ... r_2014.pdf

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade- ... -collapse/
Dennis Meadows "There's Nothing We Can Do"
http://churchandstate.org.uk/2013/04/dennis-meadows-there-is-nothing-that-we-can-do/
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 10:06:58

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:World Scientists “Warning to Humanity” Signed by 1,700 Scientists Including the Majority of all Nobel Prize Winners
http://www.ucsusa.org/about/1992-world- ... eKJx49Sziw

I told you deniers...Don't make me George Bush this button over nothing..


I don't know what your obsession with posting 10+ year old claims is but why not stretch yourself and post things from current research on the issue of peak oil? Nobody around here gains traction by simply repeating 10+ year old studies because out here in reality things have progressed. Fracking as it has developed over the 2006-2017 time period has provided humanity with a breather on the consequences of the energy system as designed 1859-2005. Fracking is no more a permanent solution than the North Sea or Prudhoe Bay were, but it represents a heck of a lot of energy injected into the world supply system and has succeeded in causing a short term glut in world oil supply. Ignoring that by only posting 10+ year old article links, without even quotes to show what parts you want people to understand, is futile. Doing it over and over is a violation of the COC as you have been told.

Come let us reason together. Post a quote and a link, and comment on the veracity and quality of that quoted passage. Members here will eagerly discuss both the quoted passage and your commentary about it, which is a far more useful form of communication than repetitive link baiting and proclamations of superior knowledge. It would also go a long way towards proving you have some ideas of your own instead of just a minimal capability of link baiting.



Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... no-return/

NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We're Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites ... r_2014.pdf

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade- ... -collapse/


Again no quotes from any of these four links and no commentary on the quotes which means these are link bait without even the context that normal link bait gets from advertisers. I do not understand your failure to perceive the problem but clearly you are not comprehending what I am telling you so think about it and try again.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 10:47:10

pstarr wrote:Tanada, he also posted (Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, 2013 Royal Society ), a more recent article by the team who tried to warn us (to no avail) 30 years ago of the same . . . collapse. It's very timely.

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 5.full.pdf

I updated the link. Care to discuss?

and this, from NASA
NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

Maybe it is time you get on board, and consider that perhaps an optimisitic spin on things might no be correct? Perhaps this is the chaos all around?


Care to include an excerpt and an opinion about that excerpt for discussion? Posting nothing but links is pretty useless as I just spent a lot of time trying to make Cliffhanger understand. I have a limited quantity of lifespan and an even more limited quantity of waking hours, if I spent all my time reading everything at every link everyone posts around here I would not have time to do anything else, and I would still be ignorant of what particular material the person posting the link thought was most crucial for discussion.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 12:08:40

I never said I was a rocket scientist. I am a chemist at a Midwest university. .And I know you are jealous of my education because you keep bringing it up. Which shows you must have zero education...you are just a paid shill for the oil industry. And I can tell they are paying shit these days...And like I said Rockbrain. If you dont stop i will post more peer reviewed studies that will make you go cry to the mods again...You don't want to wet yourself again like yesterday do you?


Well actually you claimed to have a PhD in Quantum Chemistry which is another word for molecular quantum mechanics, rocket scientist is used in jest by many for such lofty endeavors. So now you are just a chemist? Which is it? As to me having less education? My guess is I had finished my PhD, had written a number of peer-reviewed papers and taught tensor transforms to third-year civil engineering students while you were in diapers. And 30+ years working in the oil and gas industry certainly gives me the level of knowledge necessary to discuss related issues on this site. You, on the other hand, apparently have zero relevant knowledge and apparently, your chemistry background doesn’t extend into understanding oil organic geochemistry nor do you seem to be comfortable arguing thermodynamics with the ETP crowd which one would expect someone with your background would immediately migrate towards. But the main giveaway here is the language and demeanor you use on this site. I’ve spent my entire career around colleagues with advanced degrees….we do not converse like juvenile uneducated trailer trash where that seems to be your go-to mode.

Oh and please keep posting those long sets of links, I see that Tanada seems to be losing patience with you so it probably won’t be long before you find yourself banned.
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 18:33:55

Mr. Tanada

Kudos to you, sir, for your time and efforts administering this blog.

Personally, I'd be more inclined to both read and contribute - when able - if there were not the presence of so many posters who - for whatever reason - put forth such unrealistic stuff on an ongoing basis.

When the more knowledgeable commenters are challenged by sincere seekers of valid information/validation, all followers of this site are given an opportunity to learn, to evaluate, to think through some of the important hydrocarbon issues of the day.

Your efforts to keep folks on a constructive path seems both daunting and, occasionally, unsuccessful.
Thanks again for your efforts.

(By the way, as someone who has avidly followed this "Shale Revolution" from the earliest days of the Montana/North Dakota Bakken activities, we are in the early innings of a multi decade long process of expanded LTO production.
The rapid, drill times combined with precise targeting is being complemented by diversion processes, micro proppants, and - most recently - dramatic initial production numbers utilizing elevated formation pressure by greatly restricting the flowback process.
The Uinta, Powder River, Rogersville, Tuscaloosa Marine, and others are entering the orbit of economical development in the coming years.

Natgas?
Centuries worth at rock bottom pricing. (sorry, Rockman).
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 21:24:19

Your efforts to keep folks on a constructive path seems both daunting and, occasionally, unsuccessful.
Thanks again for your efforts.

I second that emotion (apologies to Smokey Robinson):razz: :P
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Re: Have the US passed peak shale

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 22:33:25

pstarr wrote:
Tanada wrote:Care to include an excerpt and an opinion about that excerpt for discussion? Posting nothing but links is pretty useless as I just spent a lot of time trying to make Cliffhanger understand.
I included the most relevant opinion and link I can imagine (I updated Cliff's faulty link). The Ehrlichs, married couple of scientists predicted the current state of the world more than four decades ago. We all know who the Ehrlichs are, and don't need reminding.


True. Ehrlich was the guy who lost the bet, because he doesn't know much about economics. And who claimed that England would suffer some massive starvation dieoff..and it didn't. And received many awards for being politically correct, while always being factually wrong.

Sort of like bell shaped curves for oil production, except this were people pretending they could guess the future.

So they HAVE predicted more collapse, except a half century later now? Do they explain why, in their new work, how they were able to compensate for the error in their ideas from a half century ago? because if they haven't, they are no different than a run of the mill kick the can peak oiler like Colin Campbell, who went at least 20 years playing that game until recently...he appears to have become more quiet.
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Is The EIA Overestimating The U.S. Shale Boom?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 19:09:34


The American shale boom may be overstated by the U.S. Energy Department, according to a new MIT study that suggests the agency may be over-attributing a rise in shale drilling to technological advances. “The EIA is assuming that productivity of individual wells will continue to rise as a result of improvements in technology,” MIT researcher Justin B. Montgomery told World Oil. “This compounds year after year, like interest, so the further out in the future the wells are drilled, the more that they are being overestimated.” Instead, lukewarm oil prices have forced oil majors to drill only in easy-to-access areas, located mostly in the Eagle Ford and Permian basins in Texas, and the Bakken formation in North Dakota. This has led to an exaggerated increase in the number of active wells, and a hyperbolized narrative of growth in the shale industry, the


Is The EIA Overestimating The U.S. Shale Boom?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 20:16:30

Fracking has been great for my wallet, but what comes next? So far nearly all successful fracking has been in America, not a world wide tide like conventional oil was. What is waiting in the wings to be the Next Great Thing?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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