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The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Pops » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 18:00:49

marmico wrote:Based on your chart, in 1967 (a 22 year old lead edge baby boomer) started and if they were average they ended up 50% higher in real income in 2018.


Let me give you an easier picture to grasp:

Image

That degree does earn more, but it no longer moves you up the ladder

Study wrote:there has been a large decline in the rate of upward mobility across successive U.S. birth cohorts, from 92% of children born in 1940 earning more than their parents to only half of children born in 1984.
...
Children born in the early 1940s had slightly over two more years of schooling, on average, at age 30 than individuals in their parents’ generation, as compared with only 0.75 more years of schooling for children born in the early 1980s (8, 9). The declining educational advantage across generations has slowed income growth, and slower growth of the supply of more educated workers has been a key factor in rising wage inequality,
...
The rise in college completion rates in recent decades has been concentrated among families in the top half of the income distribution (11), making it difficult for children from low-income families to surpass their parents’ economic performance.


Image


Image


In parting I'll just mention that your attempt at condescension marks you as obviously lacking something important in the real world, sorry you're so bitter, maybe take a class?
PS Just put me on ignore that way neither of us will be bothered
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 20:49:28

Newfie and Pops, I think both of you should read this article:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/06/the-birth-of-a-new-american-aristocracy/559130/

...because all of out talk of the top 1% or the top 0.1% is kinda irrelevent. The real problem is the top 9.9%, and very likely, both of you fall into that class.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Pops » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 21:47:41

I love the Atlantic, good long reads.

I'd seen that and thought right away of AgentAR15 who always talked about the court jesters staying loyal all the way to the end. They're called the meritocracy now, "The Elites" by the right.

I believe that story also talks about resentment which I just wrote a post on... quick search:
According to a survey by the political scientist Brian Schaffner, Trump crushed it among voters who “strongly disagree” that “white people have advantages because of the color of their skin,” as well as among those who “strongly agree” that “women seek to gain power over men.” It’s worth adding that these responses measure not racism or sexism directly, but rather resentment.


and this, which has long been my favorite whipping horse:
The raging polarization of American political life is not the consequence of bad manners or a lack of mutual understanding. It is just the loud aftermath of escalating inequality. It could not have happened without the 0.1 percent (or, rather, an aggressive subset of its members). Wealth always preserves itself by dividing the opposition.


Still, it is the .1% that sway elections and even more importantly, sway policy regardless of elections that I fixate on.
The 9.9ers are just the court jesters, good for them.

And, alas no, I ain't one, LOL

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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby careinke » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 01:03:31

Pops wrote:Still, it is the .1% that sway elections and even more importantly, sway policy regardless of elections that I fixate on.

.


I thought it was those pesky Russians and their Bots. :roll:
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Cog » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 05:35:47

Dems blame racism or Russia for their loss depending on the day of the week. It could never be that Trump offered a much better vision for America than Clinton.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 09:14:03

careinke wrote:
Pops wrote:Still, it is the .1% that sway elections and even more importantly, sway policy regardless of elections that I fixate on.

.


I thought it was those pesky Russians and their Bots. :roll:

Funny, I never peg you as a troll.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 11:39:02

It seems to me that people are equating continuing education with college. While you can go back to college to retrain and keep up, I don't think it is the only choice. Economically, this is important. It not only has something to do with time, in an ever changing economic landscape, but also with the amount of investment required. It is true that many of the continuing education opportunities are expensive, but does their cost really equate to that of college? This is important because jobs will be going away at a much faster rate with automation. Many people say that history has always had these inflection points, and that new jobs arose out of the situation. Without a mindset that considers alternatives to the time expense of college filling these new jobs might be difficult. I don't hold out much hope, however, for them becoming cheaper. The important thing is that a person can earn enough of a return to pay them off and supply all of the additional things they require out of their income.

When I brought up the idea of government having a hand in capitalizing the people, I had in mind education as well as physical things that people would need to go into business. The whole idea of capital came about because of machines that could just be set up and begin to produce. Maybe they cost a bit to set up and run, but that cost was either covered in the original expense or was easily covered by the profits. We are used to thinking about capital as money buying hard goods, the machines that workers use to make things. Increasingly, that same money buys virtual goods.

Workers aren't stiffs off of the street who push things through the machines. They bring a certain amount of expertise. Virtual capital won't work without the expertise. That is a huge change. One could even say that it strikes at the heart of our idea of what capitalism is. And it suggests something about the traditional role of the customer as well. In fact, I would argue that what is happening at Facebook today, down hard because of reduced future earnings expectations, is a result of that company not recognizing the new arrangement. And many similar businesses will suffer the same, as the advertising model fails to hold from time to time and they haven't built a product that is useful to people in ways for which they can get a return without resorting to it so exclusively.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 12:09:56

It's crazy, FB had a 40% earnings increase but said they need to work on their fake news model so are down 20%.

The study I pointed to above says the reason college ain't what it used to be in terms of "getting ahead", is it used to be the exception. The article KJ linked (here or elsewhere) pointed to the fact that competition for the "good" schools is so fierce that poors can't make the jump, and it turns out getting into a good school doesn't mean you learn more, but that you rub elbows with the right people—it's like a giant Rotary club mixer. Lots of people my age did very well coming back from Nam and getting an AS but they didn't necessarily get into the Wall St jobs (and such) where the real money and especially power is. Back then it was who your daddy knew, now it's who your daddy can get you to know.

A degree is largely the meritocratic substitute for the union apprenticeship; it doesn't take 5 years to learn how to lay brick but it's the dues you pay to get in the club.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 13:04:42

That's total BS, Pops. Any job that requires advanced math, physics, chemistry, etc. is very hard to get educated for, and the reason that assorted LAS curriculae exist is so that the dropouts from the STEM curriculae have places to land where Daddy's tuition will not have been flushed down the crapper.

We DO need those highly skilled STEM people as well, more than anything else. Even after my own approximately 15-year design engineering career was over, I spent another 15 years teaching fresher engineers how to work, the process of engineering, which they did while I supervised. Then the last 4 years of my EE career was spent in sustaining the installed base of computers, and figuring out how to use newer parts in older designs, a vital process that preserved a reveue stream from service contracts. The physical sciences and even medicine are similar, in that you need to not only acquire knowledge of your speciality itself, but also the process involved in engineering, science R&D, or practicing medicine. Then if you can manage and lead people, you can succeed big.

This process and the high levels of STEM mastery required are incredibly intense. Then China or Korea takes your work - your elegant design of a digital device or software or whatever, and make "monkey copies" that may not be the latest and greatest in terms of design, but are lots cheaper, because the Chinese manufacturer does not have to pay for R&D or employ designer level engineers.

Yet because of competition from overseas manufacturers making "monkey copies", we have short product cycles, and if you can't compete, short company lifespans. In Silicon Valley, for example, 1 out of 15 companies on average makes it through the first decade. Tandem Computers where I started was one such success story, but was swallowed up by Compaq, which was in turn eaten by HP, and the Tandem logo disappeared in 1992. I ended up going from employee #237 at a new startup, to working at the world's third largest tech corporation, one of 300,000.

If your particular expertise is marketing, when your personal designer role is finished, you become a Bill Gates or a Steve Jobs or a Mark Zuckerberg. That was not my skillset, I taught kids with brand new engineering degrees how to design products.

But don't think that in the world of tech, it matters who you know, rather than what you know. The "who you know" has always been true in banking and finance and insurance, but never in high tech.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 13:26:16

KJ,

I sorta worked through your article. Not sure what to do with it. Yes I’m in the 9.9%, but I came from something like 30% roughly, , maybe lower. Dad hit high cotton when he got a janitorial job and benefits. The 3 years befor that he didn’t work at all because of back problems and pneumonia. At 40 I was divorced and in debt. Today I’m in the 9.9%. Am I supposed to feel bad about this?

The article is written about the USA. It makes some comparisons to the rest of Western Culture. But what about the rest of the world? I have no idea how China, India, Malaysia, or Africa would compare to the USA.

I’m not suggesting the disparity is good. I just don’t know how to stop it.

Then we also come back to the idea of surplus people. Largely we are old, obsolete machines. So I guess it’s “normal” for society to not value us.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 13:51:13

KaiserJeep wrote:That's total BS, Pops. ... The "who you know" has always been true in banking and finance and insurance...

LOL, this is the Financial System thread.

AFA engineering and STEM goes I would have been one of those washouts but washed out preemptively. I wanted to be an architect but couldn't even hack the math for that. Likely would have wound up a mechanical pencil draftsman at the dawn of AutoCad, LOL
I liked the design part and was able to do fine regardless, designed jewelry stores and a few new houses and remods (wet sig where req'd), furniture and casework before going back to graphics...

that was then tho, couldn't get a real job doing any of it today
Last edited by Pops on Thu 26 Jul 2018, 13:53:41, edited 1 time in total.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 13:51:45

Pops wrote:It's crazy, FB had a 40% earnings increase but said they need to work on their fake news model so are down 20%.

No, it's not at all crazy, in context.

A stock will tend to follow the EXPECTATIONS in future earnings, and financial performance in general (cash flow, revenue, etc).

In this case, FB announced that their future growth / earnings are likely to be significantly worse than the market had been expecting. So the stock dropped significantly. Not crazy. Quite rational, in context.

I have NO position in FB or interest in FB in particular -- I just noticed this story as it was expected to significantly hit the tech stocks today, so I expected it to potentially hit things that I am in as an emotional reaction, like NVDA. (Which it didn't - so I'm certainly not claiming the stock market is an easy beast to figure out overall, especially in the short term).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 13:57:37

Newfie wrote:Yes I’m in the 9.9%, but I came from something like 30% roughly, , maybe lower. Dad hit high cotton when he got a janitorial job and benefits. The 3 years befor that he didn’t work at all because of back problems and pneumonia. At 40 I was divorced and in debt. Today I’m in the 9.9%. Am I supposed to feel bad about this?

From my perspective, no, you get major Kudos. You are an example of how upward mobility and opportunity IS possible, with the right work ethic. Does luck play a part? Sure. But it's most certainly NOT ALL LUCK, unlike the diehard devotees of government wealth distribution to the max tend to like to claim. (I'm talking about globally here, in general).

Yes, I am a right winger on this particular issue.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 14:49:06

THIS is what I rant on about in reference to the 0.1% wealth. It is not real, fake I tell you, fake.

So Zuckerburg lost $16 Billion? FB $120 BIllion? I don’t think so.

Here is the analogy, a close analogy. Let’s say you invested $1 million with Bernie Madoff. Bernie sends you letters saying everything is rosey you now have $10 million. Then it crashes and you have zip, $0. How much did you loose? $1 million, not $10 million. You did not loose $9 million because it never existed in the first place. Same here except it doesn’t go to zero. Back to the analogy, Bernie had SOME real assets. FB is not at zero, it still has some real assets.

When you do valuations based on the price of the last share sold it is participating in a scheme, you are reading Madoff letters. You have to value the companies real (REAL) assets. That is not done in the stock market.

From my history, an electrical contractor goes bankrupt or needs to be sold, what is it worth? You total up the value of the offices, property, vecicles, equipment, supplies. That’s A. Then you look at their extant contracts; what is the uncollected value, what will it cost to complete them? This may be a positive or negative number. That’s B. Add these two numbers (A+B) and that’s the companies value, stock price be damned.

This is why I think it’s silly to get hyper about the 0.1%, they are really mostly just hot air and hype.

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/07/26/ ... rcent.html

Prior to Facebook's second-quarter results, Zuckerberg had a net worth of $77.6 billion, according to Forbes. After the stock selloff, Zuckerberg's net worth fell to roughly $68.9 billion, making him worth less than Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett.

Facebook's market cap has fallen roughly $120 billion, or the amount General Motors, Ford and Target are worth combined.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 15:12:58

"Value" is whatever the market says it is, we price in future value all the time. Bernie had nothing tangible except expected returns: future value.

It doesn't work for my "business" because my "good will" is not transferable, I am the asset. But for a brand, the value is in the name, facebook could sell computers for example based on their brand recognition. Google and Apple did it with phones, million other examples.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 16:26:15

Newfie wrote:THIS is what I rant on about in reference to the 0.1% wealth. It is not real, fake I tell you, fake.

So Zuckerburg lost $16 Billion? FB $120 BIllion? I don’t think so.

Here is the analogy, a close analogy. Let’s say you invested $1 million with Bernie Madoff. Bernie sends you letters saying everything is rosey you now have $10 million. Then it crashes and you have zip, $0. How much did you loose? $1 million, not $10 million. You did not loose $9 million because it never existed in the first place. Same here except it doesn’t go to zero. Back to the analogy, Bernie had SOME real assets. FB is not at zero, it still has some real assets.

Respectfully, I disagree to at least some extent.

To the extent that Zuckerberg could have unloaded his FB stock (over time) without meaningfully impacting the market, then that wealth was "real". So, if he wanted to liquidate $1 billion in FB stock over the course of, say, 3 months, to diversify -- it's likely VERY reasonable to assume he'd get roughly 99% of the average market price over that time.

For example, people own houses. Though not liquid at full price, isn't their worth "real", or the bulk of their worth? Or used cars. Or stocks or bonds or gold coins or art etc. -- more liquid than houses for sure, but certainly not anything remotely like worthless.

I have a diversified investment portfolio worth X. Because I'm conservative financially, I tend to keep close enough to half of it in near cash (money market funds and the like). (I'd far rather be a happy guy who can eat every day and pay the bills than have X more dollars by being aggressive and lucky. If that's cowardice, I'll stipulate to that. I call it prudence for a retiree.)

Now, is the half in near cash worth .5X but the half in things like stock index funds and gold and stock option spreads worth zero? I beg to differ. I could choose to liquidate the non-near-cash portfolio on day D without moving the markets I'm involved in by even .1%. For the options, I might move that more like 1% in some cases, but not enough to get excited about (remembering the put-call option parity concept).

...

Bottom line, just because assets aren't liquid cash or near cash and aren't even close to being spent doesn't mean they're "fake" or "unreal" IN ANY WAY. They're just less liquid than cash, and far more volatile in value than cash. Major markets trade about 250 days a year, very reliably.

Was the roughly 10X I gained on holding MSFT calls for the last half of the 90's "unreal"? (I'd always rather be lucky than smart). For the 80% of the position I was fortunate enough to exit when the government filed the antitrust lawsuit on them, it certainly didn't seem unreal. It was deposited just fine. It bought other assets just fine.

If an small to mid-sized investor had gotten out of the Madoff scheme, say a year before it was exposed, they would have gotten "full asset value" for their withdrawals, since Madoff wanted the scam to stay undetected. So would the assets they withdrew have never existed? NO, because the cash would have spent or earned interest, etc. just fine.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 16:39:57

Pops wrote:Image

Wow. I hadn't realized that the upward mobility had reduced so much and so steadily all the way from 1940.

So by Reagan's terms, a tremendous amount of that "damage" had been done.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 17:21:28

OS, read the Atlantic article I linked above. Then look at those charts again. They are pretty nonsensical. The nonsensical part is that as your family income increases, the "upward mobility" becomes increasingly harder to achieve.

My kid got her undergraduate degree about five years earlier in her life than me. Time I spent in military service. THEN she did her public service, not in the military but the American Red Cross, including running the truck fleet logistics for Hurricane Katrina for 7 weeks.

Too early to tell if her kids are gonna be Blue Collar or White Collar, they are 3 years and 2 months old. But I was the first in my extended family to earn a college degree, my parents on both sides were subsistance farmers in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

I was taught to avoid debt. That lesson will be hard to pass on, I think my grandkids will have online credit accounts. Hopefully not before they learn that money must be earned with labor. That is NOT a lesson too many kids here in Silly Valley ever learned. One important milestone is when you transition from renter to a home mortgage. That is very hard when renting an efficiency apartment costs $3000/month. Hard to save up a down payment for that first mortgage, few kids can manage.

But that is Silly Valley. In large parts of the MidWest, real estate does not appreciate, or does so very slowly. Hard to get ahead. But you have to have a plan.

Here's a key point: One way to tell if you have a plan for success is whether or not you play the lottery regularly. The answer should be NO.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 17:59:15

KaiserJeep wrote: The nonsensical part is that as your family income increases, the "upward mobility" becomes increasingly harder to achieve.

You sound like the perfect example:
You're more educated so earn more income than your parents
Your kid has the same education so not as likely to exceed her parent's income
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby GHung » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 18:55:39

This entire discussion is based on status as the result of wealth and income, not on social status born of who one is (character), what one does (goes to community or other non-financial contributions), one's worldview and outlook, or simply one's understanding of things as they are (wisdom?). A society that values little beyond one's financial status (or what growth-based accomplishments that can enable) is largely fucked.
So here we are.
Last edited by GHung on Thu 26 Jul 2018, 19:04:25, edited 1 time in total.
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