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THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby GHung » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 09:17:30

Are energy companies putting all of their resources into scraping the bottom of the barrel to remain profitable, short term? How long can this continue before things go south? What then?

THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES: World Oil & Gas Discoveries Continue To Decline

As the world continues to burn energy like there is no tomorrow, global oil and gas discoveries fell to another low in 2017. And to make matters worse, world oil investment has dropped 45% from its peak in 2014. If the world oil industry doesn’t increase its capital expenditures significantly, we are going to hit the Energy Cliff much sooner than later.

According to Rystad Energy, total global conventional oil and gas discoveries fell to a low of 6.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Boe). To arrive at a Boe, Rystad Energy converts natural gas to a barrel of oil equivalent. In 2012, the world discovered 30 billion Boe of oil and gas versus the 6.7 billion Boe last year:

Image

In the article, All-time low for discovered resources in 2017, Rystad reports, it stated the following:
“We haven’t seen anything like this since the 1940s,” says Sonia Mladá Passos, senior analyst at Rystad Energy. “The discovered volumes averaged at ~550 MMboe per month. The most worrisome is the fact that the reserve replacement ratio in the current year reached only 11% (for oil and gas combined) – compared to over 50% in 2012.” According to Rystad’s analysis, 2006 was the last year when reserve replacement ratio reached 100%.


The critical information in the quote above is that the world only replaced 11% of its oil and gas consumption last year compared to 50% in 2012. .....................

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-energy-c ... o-decline/
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 10:58:22

Analyses like this can be misleading if you don't distinguish between the different definitions of reserves and resources.
Here Rystad mixes the two together (assuming they have an audience that understands the difference) with discovered resources and produced reserves. What that would intuitively mean is 1P (proven reserves) is decreasing at a higher rate that resources are being added. What is misleading here is that each year (according to the BP 2018 statistical report) the worlds Proven reserves have increased. What that means is there is a pool of 2P, 3P and resources previously discovered that through additional drilling or other work have been elevated to Proven (1P) status.
The BP analysis addresses the future via a calculation of reserve life index but that too is based on the current level of Proven (1P) reserves. So when they say the world has an average reserve life index of say 50 years what that means is if there were no movements from 2P, 3P and resources categories to 1P (Proven) category it would take 50 years at current production rates for all of the Proven reserves to have been produced. Of course, that isn't the case as BP's numbers illustrate Proven reserves are increasing. And the large resource base that sits in North American shales and oil sands is downplayed simply because current recovery factors are so low. The significance of this is important. If, as an example, the recovery factor on LTO in shales was to increase by 10% that would add the equivalent of all the new oil discovered in 2017 (according to the Rystad estimates)

As well it goes without saying that at least one reason for a poor showing in new field discoveries is lack of exploration expenditure in total and the decreased amount of that expenditure that has gone to actual drilling. You certainly can't hope to find something if you aren't looking for it. WoodMackenzie predicts that with the increase in price global exploration will gradually pick up. Certainly, most of the big things have been discovered (although there is still room for deep and ultradeep water discoveries in various place) but there will be large discoveries much like what was found in Guyana, Mexico and Senegal in 2017. When you consider that there is still a lot of movement left to happen between reserve categories then the picture becomes much less dismal than portrayed by the Rystad Energy Chart.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 12:35:59

GHung wrote:
THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES: World Oil & Gas Discoveries Continue To Decline

...In the article, All-time low for discovered resources in 2017, Rystad reports, it stated the following:

“We haven’t seen anything like this since the 1940s,” says Sonia Mladá Passos, senior analyst at Rystad Energy. “The discovered volumes averaged at ~550 MMboe per month. The most worrisome is the fact that the reserve replacement ratio in the current year reached only 11% (for oil and gas combined) – compared to over 50% in 2012.” According to Rystad’s analysis, 2006 was the last year when reserve replacement ratio reached 100%.


The lack of new oil discoveries is a very real concern. You might expect the jump in oil prices to produce an equivalent jump in the amount of spending on new exploration, but there just aren't a whole lot of super-giant or even giant oil fields out there waiting to be discovered, and the oil companies know that. They aren't going to spend huge amounts of money searching for oil fields in areas that they've already explored, and pretty much everywhere has already been explored except for ultradeep marine fields like the sub-sea salt plays off Brazil, and those have proven very difficult to work with.

Cheers!
Last edited by Plantagenet on Mon 02 Jul 2018, 12:42:00, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 12:38:13

One must assume the oil companies have have the means and motive to seed web sites with professional trolls.

The oil industry is the largest business in the world, its sleazy operators don't need to hear that we might want to cut back. Or that oil is in fact, for all practical purposes . . . running out.

Interns and even retired oil academics can fluff up their CV's or even earn a tidy retirement nest egg promulgating confusion, distrust and BS with impunity. Because we are a generous people :)
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 12:47:54

Plantagenet wrote:The lack of new oil discoveries is a very real concern. You might expect the jump in oil prices to produce an equivalent jump in the amount of spending on new exploration, but there just aren't a whole lot of super-giant or even giant oil fields out there waiting to be discovered, and the oil companies know that. They aren't going to spend huge amounts of money searching for oil fields in areas that they've already explored, and pretty much everywhere has already been explored.
Cheers!

Let's pretend a concern is certain doom. Let's pretend that history doesn't rhyme (high oil prices WILL encourage more exploration, via the profit motive). Let's pretend that technology never improves. Let's pretend that even though oil fracking is becoming highly productive mainstream technology, that it couldn't possibly produce lots in areas currently not exploited.

Let's also pretend neither producers of EV's of all types nor car customers will react at all if oil prices go much higher, so demand for EV's of all types couldn't possibly increase. Especially as batteries get better and prices come down.

Yep. Sounds like certain doom. Excuse me while I go hide under my bed. Because doing things like investing in oil or copper or battery tech. or EV tech to hedge the future are clearly impossible.

...

Yes, the lack of discoveries is a real concern. If that persists massively at, say, $150 sustained oil prices AND people aren't moving rapidly toward HEV's with new vehicle purchases in a few to several years, it might become a persistent concern or a HUGE concern. But I think the odds of that occuring (if oil prices and demand keep increasing meaningfully) are miniscule.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 12:59:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:The lack of new oil discoveries is a very real concern. You might expect the jump in oil prices to produce an equivalent jump in the amount of spending on new exploration, but there just aren't a whole lot of super-giant or even giant oil fields out there waiting to be discovered, and the oil companies know that. They aren't going to spend huge amounts of money searching for oil fields in areas that they've already explored, and pretty much everywhere has already been explored.
Cheers!


...

Yes, the lack of discoveries is a real concern. If that persists massively at, say, $150 sustained oil prices AND people aren't moving rapidly toward HEV's with new vehicle purchases in a few to several years, it might become a persistent concern or a HUGE concern. But I think the odds of that occuring (if oil prices and demand keep increasing meaningfully) are miniscule.


Do you think the oil companies aren't exploring and aren't making huge new discoveries because they forgot to do it? Do you think the oil companies really wanted to explore all these hot prospects but just couldn't find the money to explore? Its time to face facts----The oil companies aren't exploring because there isn't anywhere left to explore. The earth needs to discover a new Saudi Arabia---and there aren't any more out there to find.

Where exactly do you suggest they go look to make these new oil discoveries that you are so confident are out there?

Cheers!
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 13:35:01

Plantagenet wrote:Do you think the oil companies aren't exploring and aren't making huge new discoveries because they forgot to do it? Do you think the oil companies really wanted to explore all these hot prospects but just couldn't find the money to explore? Its time to face facts----The oil companies aren't exploring because there isn't anywhere left to explore. The earth needs to discover a new Saudi Arabia---and there aren't any more out there to find.

Where exactly do you suggest they go look to make these new oil discoveries that you are so confident are out there?
Cheers!

I think that low oil prices (until quite recently) over the past 4 years have greatly suppressed exploration for oil. After all, that's been all over the news. Are you going to claim you don't understand this concept?

I don't know exactly where to look. I'm not in the oil business. If they needed help building databases to manage their oil business, I could help for the right money. :)

I would generally suggest internationally near other areas where fracking sites have been found but fracking hasn't occurred due to political, environmental, and/or financial reasons (at low oil prices). , as a decent place to start.

I would also suggest that as technology improves, viable fracking sites will be found that weren't considered viable before -- especially at much higher oil prices.

I'm confident that when the prices are high enough and the need for the energy is great enough, that such resources will be exploited, even in places like Europe.

I'd also be surprised that in massive Asia and the Middle East, etc. that with all the natural gas they've found that frackable oil doesn't exist, at high enough prices. So there's another rather large area to look in.

...

Or are you going to pretend that at much higher oil prices the money and the profit motive to invest and search for such sources won't exist?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby GHung » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 13:42:25

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:The lack of new oil discoveries is a very real concern. You might expect the jump in oil prices to produce an equivalent jump in the amount of spending on new exploration, but there just aren't a whole lot of super-giant or even giant oil fields out there waiting to be discovered, and the oil companies know that. They aren't going to spend huge amounts of money searching for oil fields in areas that they've already explored, and pretty much everywhere has already been explored.
Cheers!


...

Yes, the lack of discoveries is a real concern. If that persists massively at, say, $150 sustained oil prices AND people aren't moving rapidly toward HEV's with new vehicle purchases in a few to several years, it might become a persistent concern or a HUGE concern. But I think the odds of that occuring (if oil prices and demand keep increasing meaningfully) are miniscule.


Do you think the oil companies aren't exploring and aren't making huge new discoveries because they forgot to do it? Do you think the oil companies really wanted to explore all these hot prospects but just couldn't find the money to explore? Its time to face facts----The oil companies aren't exploring because there isn't anywhere left to explore. The earth needs to discover a new Saudi Arabia---and there aren't any more out there to find.

Where exactly do you suggest they go look to make these new oil discoveries that you are so confident are out there?

Cheers!


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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 14:59:55

Do you think the oil companies aren't exploring and aren't making huge new discoveries because they forgot to do it? Do you think the oil companies really wanted to explore all these hot prospects but just couldn't find the money to explore? Its time to face facts----The oil companies aren't exploring because there isn't anywhere left to explore.


No…they basically quit looking and drilling when prices began to plummet in 2014. The first place oil and gas companies cut budgets is in exploration, and next in development drilling and commissioning of already discovered fields. You only have to look at rig counts from 2014 through 2017 to see this.

Where exactly do you suggest they go look to make these new oil discoveries that you are so confident are out there?

- Ultra-deepwater offshore Brazil. There have been two recent ultradeep water bid rounds and both were fully subscribed and there is another planned for 2019.
- West Africa ultra-deepwater. Prior to the price drop companies were just beginning to look for similar pre-salt traps that had been discovered offshore Brazil. The geology is a mirror image but to date, almost no drilling has occurred
- There are still a lot of shale basins that need full-on development. This is a product mainly of price (which is rising) and secondly of politics (which will change with time)
- Recent success in Alaska North Slope (eg. Repsol/Armstrong, Caelus) is just the start from what I remember seeing on seismic. There is a very thick sequence of units that all show seismic anomalies similar to what have been proven to hold oil and gas. Permeability is likely a concern but again that is something that higher prices and technology will help solve.

But again BP shows we have 1.7 trillion barrels of 1P reserves globally and when compared with the 3.9 trillion barrels the IEA suggests are remaining of technically recoverable reserves there is considerable room for reserve upgrades. And improving recovery factors for LTO and oil sands could be very significant.

When you put this in the context of a gradual increase in EV deployment globally, improvements in economics for LNG and GTL, the replacement of oil with natural gas and the greater implementation of alternatives in the right places pressure will come off of oil demand, meaning a lot longer future albeit at lower usage rates
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 15:10:29

Always an excuse rockintern. Crude was around $30 for decades inflation adjusted. Your (wannabee) industry discovered and produced the great fields everywhere when oil was dirt cheap. Now that it is above $70 the drilling rate stinks. Even in the Amazing, Fanastic, Peak-Oil Killer . . . the Wonderful Permian

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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 15:34:44

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think that low oil prices (until quite recently) over the past 4 years have greatly suppressed exploration for oil. After all, that's been all over the news.


So where are the major oil discoveries made when oil prices were high BEFORE four years ago?

The lack of major new oil discoveries is not a new phenomena. People were already talking about this 15-20 years ago. It was part of the whole "peak oil will happen in 2005" meme.

Face facts---there hasn't been more then 1-2 new giant conventional oil field discoveries in the last 20 years. The only big boost in oil production we've seen in the last 20 years has been from US tight oil shale.

So what comes next? Where do you think the oil majors should go looking for oil that they didn't already look at?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I would generally suggest internationally near other areas where fracking sites have been found but fracking hasn't occurred due to political, environmental, and/or financial reasons (at low oil prices). , as a decent place to start....I'd also be surprised that in massive Asia and the Middle East, etc. that with all the natural gas they've found that frackable oil doesn't exist, at high enough prices. So there's ... rather large area to look in.


Thats a good idea, and its very possible that some TOS resources exist there. Australia also has potential. And right here in Alaska there are extensive shale oil deposits as well. I rafted past a huge fire along the Yukon River a couple of years where a shale oil bed had been hit by lightning and was burning away. You could see the smoke plume for 100 miles downriver.

However, other then ANWR, the new giant oil fields are conspicuous by their absence.

...

Outcast_Searcher wrote:are you going to pretend that at much higher oil prices the money and the profit motive to invest and search for such sources won't exist?


What strange ideas you have. Of course the profit motive exists and at higher oil prices there is more money to search for new oil. Thats a given. The curious thing is the lack of major conventional oil discoveries in the last 15-20 years in spite of extended periods of time with high oil prices and very high corporate profits for the oil majors.

Remember when Sherlock Holmes thought the "dog that didn't bark" was an important clue? Well---the fact giant oil companies haven't been finding any giant oil deposits for quite a long time is another big clue.

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Big Oil companies that aren't finding big deposits of oil are a clue......

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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 16:14:05

"I would generally suggest internationally near other areas where fracking sites have been found but fracking hasn't occurred due to political, environmental, and/or financial reasons (at low oil prices). , as a decent place to start....I'd also be surprised that in massive Asia and the Middle East, etc. that with all the natural gas they've found that frackable oil doesn't exist, at high enough prices. So there's ... rather large area to look in."

Outcast_Searcher, you must mean Vaca? How is that going?

"Argentina possesses the world's second-largest reserves of shale natural gas and ranks No. 4 in reserves of shale oil, mostly in the Vaca Muerta fields in Patagonia. But it faces stiff competition to attract the billions in private investment needed to develop these resources. Oil production is languishing at multi-decade lows."
July 02, 2018, 09:35:00 AM EDT By Reuters

Very badly.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 22:06:08

Face facts---there hasn't been more then 1-2 new giant conventional oil field discoveries in the last 20 years


Well that is just completely incorrect. Giant fields as first defined by M. T. Halbouty are fields with reserves of 500 MMb or greater, Super Giant fields are those in excess of 2 billion bblsThe giants discovered since 2000 are distributed:
• Middle East (11 giant oil and 17 giant gas fields).
• Offshore Brazil (16 giant oil and 3 giant gas fields).
• Central Asia (2 giant oil and 5 giant gas fields).
• Offshore East Africa (13 giant gas fields).
• Offshore West Africa (6 giant oil fields).
• Northwest Shelf of Australia (8 giant gas fields).
• Gulf of Mexico (5 giant oil fields).
So that is a total of 40 giant oil fields which is a bit larger than 2. :roll:

some examples of giant fields discovered in the past 20 years:

Tupi/Lula (Brazil) 2006 – 7.5 billion bbls recoverable
Jupiter (Brazil) 2008 = 1 – 2 billion bbls recoverable
Liza (offshore Guyana) 2016 ~1.4 billion bbls
Payara (offshore Guyana) 2-17 ~1 billion bbls
Zama (offshore Mexico) 2017 ~1-2 billion bbls
Kashagan (Kazakhstan) 2000 – 7-9 billion bbls
Azadagen (Iran) 1999 6 – 9 billion bbls
Thunder Horse (GOM) 1999 1 – 1.5 billion bbls
Shaikan Sheikh Adi (Kurdistan) 2009 – 4 – 6 billion bbls
Dalia (Angola) 1997 = 1 billion bbls
Agbami (Nigeria) 1998 = 1 billion bbls
Vaca Muerte (Argentina) 2011 900 million bbls
Keathley Canyon (GOM) 2011 – 700 MMboe
Jubilee (Ghana) 2007 –1-3 billion bbls
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 02 Jul 2018, 22:57:45

some examples of giant fields discovered in the past 20 years:

Tupi/Lula (Brazil) 2006 – 7.5 billion bbls recoverable
Jupiter (Brazil) 2008 = 1 – 2 billion bbls recoverable
Liza (offshore Guyana) 2016 ~1.4 billion bbls
Payara (offshore Guyana) 2-17 ~1 billion bbls
Zama (offshore Mexico) 2017 ~1-2 billion bbls
Kashagan (Kazakhstan) 2000 – 7-9 billion bbls
Azadagen (Iran) 1999 6 – 9 billion bbls
Thunder Horse (GOM) 1999 1 – 1.5 billion bbls
Shaikan Sheikh Adi (Kurdistan) 2009 – 4 – 6 billion bbls
Dalia (Angola) 1997 = 1 billion bbls
Agbami (Nigeria) 1998 = 1 billion bbls
Vaca Muerte (Argentina) 2011 900 million bbls
Keathley Canyon (GOM) 2011 – 700 MMboe
Jubilee (Ghana) 2007 –1-3 billion bbls


I stand corrected. I had no idea so many large oil fields had been discovered in the last 20 years. But it still doesn't change my larger point. Not even a tiny bit.

Lets do some math to better understand this issue.

Look at that list of discoveries over the 20 years. Is that a significant amount of oil or not? Here's where the math comes in, OK?

The world currently consumes about 34 billion bbls of oil each year, and that amount has been growing slowly over the last 20 years. 20 years of oil consumption at current rates would be ca. 680 billion bbls of oil, but because the rate of consumption was a bit lower in past years lets just make a rough estimate of ca. 600 billion bbls consumed in the last 20 years and do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to compare that number with the amount of oil discovered as shown in your list of new oil discoveries over the last 20 years.

Adding up all the recoverable oil in that list of new fields (taking the midpoint when a range of the potential recoverable oil was listed), we get a grand total of 40.25 billion bbls of recoverable oil in all the large oil field discovered in the last 20 years----but the world is consuming 34 billion barrels a year! This means all the discoveries in your list for the last 20 years are not even enough to supply the world for a year and half at current rates of consumption. The world consumed the equivalent of all that oil AND another ca. 560 billion bbls of oil over the last 20 years.

Sure...there were also a lot of smaller fields discovered, but they aren't going to materially change this story. The world is using much much much much more oil then it is discovering. All the oil in all the discoveries of the last 20 years isn't enough to even fuel the planet for a year and half. Its pathetic!

Image
The rate and size of oil discoveries has been falling for decades. All the oil discoveries of the last 20 years aren't enough to even fuel the planet for a year and half.

Its pathetic!

Get it now?

Cheers!
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 01:09:35

You are all pretending that the demand for oil is inelastic. It simply is not. As oil supplies get scarce, the price of finished petroleum fuels and goods goes higher, curbing demand. Then as prices increase, oil exploration increases and eventually a few years later, there is another glut of oil.

This has been happening for decades. Note that I am not making an argument that the oil supply is not finite. It very definately is, and we may have passed the oil peak in the recent past. Which means that the prices of petroleum products will on the average rise over the coming decades. Which in turn will encourage more exploration, the exploitation of non-conventional oil sources, and the creation of new extraction and refining tech.

Decades from now, everybody will be feeling the pinch of ever more expensive oil. There simply is no energy cliff involved.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 01:44:43

You are making the argument you claim you are not.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 02:55:47

It's not a "cliff". It takes decades for these trends to worsen. Decades of oil remain.
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 13:06:35

KaiserJeep wrote:It's not a "cliff". It takes decades for these trends to worsen. Decades of oil remain.

It is a "cliff"

There are two kinds of oil reserves; those that have been produced and those that have not. The former well known (explored, mapped, poked and prodded) or new and recently undergone extraction. In either case the lastest technologies have been applied to these active fields. The oil industry long ago learned out to extract the most petroleum at the fastest rate. These fields (80% of known reserves worldwide) deplete at 6.7% per year, year on year. Kaiser, you do the math. It's ugly :shock:

The rest, reserves (or reservoirs) that have not been produced are either considered worthless at any cost (for instance Green River shale} or not found. That latter hardly exist, as the planet has been explored mapped and extracted to the nth degree. Only a few more secret places are apt to be found. This is why we know about pre-salt in the Atlantic. It is under 20,000 feet of dense salt, rock and ocean. Yet we found it. There is little or nothing left. Kaiser, you can trust me. :)

As soon as we peak/drop off this plateau we can expect production to start plummeting. Whether total world-wide oil production plummets at 6.7% per year is possible. However folks all over the world will quickly become aware that there will always be less oil. Folks will react unpredictably. Everywhere. Even where the oil is produced. Kaiser, you are free to infer. :shock: 8O
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 13:52:02

YOU do the math. There are about 2.5 Billion humans, more or less, that depend upon mechanized, petroleum-fuelled agriculture to make the difference between malnutrition and famine. In the very near future, those people simply cannot afford to eat, and they will die. It won't be pretty, it won't be quick, and you will SEE the images on the network and the nightly news.
Image
Meanwhile, the typical Middle Class citizen of the USA/Mexico/Canada will grumble about the cost of gasoline, and be inconvenienced by such prices.

As I have said many times, TEOTWAWKI is a process, not an event. The refugee crisis is the leading edge, and throughout the next few years, we will finish the wall, export less and import more petroleum, and experience a crisis in lifestyle as everthing we consume costs more due to expensive energy.

The elasticity in demand that I am talking about is the death of a third of the World's population in the next three decades. Africa, parts of Asia, the Middle East, and South/Central America will all slowly become worse hellholes than they are already.

In the USA, our Middle Class lifestyles will be intact, our politics more contentious than ever before, and the income inequality in the USA greater than it ever has been. The 0.1% will be richer than ever, and they will be joined by another 9.9%:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/06/the-birth-of-a-new-american-aristocracy/559130/
...but don't worry, Pete. You have a place in the 9.9%.
Image

But ...... I weary of repeating it ..... there is no cliff.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
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Re: THE ENERGY CLIFF APPROACHES

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 14:22:58

KaiserJeep wrote:YOU do the math. There are about 2.5 Billion humans, more or less, that depend upon mechanized, petroleum-fuelled agriculture to make the difference between malnutrition and famine. In the very near future, those people simply cannot afford to eat, and they will die. It won't be pretty, it won't be quick, and you will SEE the images on the network and the nightly news.

Yes
KaiserJeep wrote:Meanwhile, the typical Middle Class citizen of the USA/Mexico/Canada will grumble about the cost of gasoline, and be inconvenienced by such prices.

As I have said many times, TEOTWAWKI is a process, not an event. The refugee crisis is the leading edge, and throughout the next few years, we will finish the wall, export less and import more petroleum, and experience a crisis in lifestyle as everthing we consume costs more due to expensive energy.

Yes, with reservations. You see BAU in the US. I see lots of people moving . . . in both directions. Now there are 352.8 miles wire-mesh. Not Trumps Zombie/truck-stoppers. The border is 1,954-miles. Good luck with that.

KaiserJeep wrote:The elasticity in demand that I am talking about is the death of a third of the World's population in the next three decades. Africa, parts of Asia, the Middle East, and South/Central America will all slowly become worse hellholes than they are already.

They have our oil. Are we prepared to control Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Ecuador, Algeria. Those are OPEC nations.

I
KaiserJeep wrote:n the USA, our Middle Class lifestyles will be intact, our politics more contentious than ever before, and the income inequality in the USA greater than it ever has been. The 0.1% will be richer than ever, and they will be joined by another 9.9%:

Your point being that Nantucket is a haven. Good luck with that also :twisted: 8)
November 2016
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