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The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby BrianC » Thu 27 Aug 2020, 12:46:34

The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us (vice.com) 218
Posted by msmash on Wednesday August 26, 2020 @08:43PM from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.
A new report suggests that over the next 30 years, at least 80% of the oil industry will be wiped out. From a news report:
The oil industry is on the cusp of a process of almost total decimation that will begin over the next 30 years, and continue through to the next century. That's the stark implication of a new forecast by a team of energy analysts led by a former US government energy advisor, seen exclusively by Motherboard. 2020, the forecast suggests, will go down in history as the final point-of-no-return for the global oil industry -- a date to which we will look back and remember how the production of oil, as well as other fossil fuels like gas and coal, underwent a slow, but inexorable and largely irreversible decline.

Along the way, some 80 percent of the industry as we know it is going to be wiped out. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be recognized as a principal trigger for this decline. The new era of oscillating social distancing rules and remote working has crushed once rocketing demand, at least temporarily. But in reality, the broad contours of this decline were already set in motion even before the pandemic hit. And the implications are stark: we are in the midst of a fundamental energy transition which will see the bulk of the fossil fuel industry gradually eclipsed in coming decades.

https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/20/ ... is-upon-us
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 27 Aug 2020, 13:11:41

In the real world, over the next 30 years or so, much of the TRANSPORT business that currently burns hydrocarbons will move to EV's of one form or another. That's true.

However, there is NO sign that things like the very rapidly growing global trend in petro-chemicals is going to to anything but keep on trending rapidly up. COVID-19 will end (at least to a great extent) in a year or three, given vaccines, treatments, and more scientific knowledge (despite all the political FUD, conspiracy theory nonsense, etc). Global population is likely to grow a lot for at least a few more decades. 99% of poor third world people, when offered the opportunity to consume like the middle class WILL -- and there is your huge petro-chemical growth, over time.

Oil is used for a HELL of a lot more than just transport.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 27 Aug 2020, 16:36:59

Key phrase:

"this is not an oil scarcity crisis, but a demand crisis"

Peak oil demand scares oil investors but is of no concern to joe sixpack.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 27 Aug 2020, 22:14:41

BrianC wrote:The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us (vice.com)
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/20/ ... is-upon-us


Nafeez is a 9/11 Truther, and misrepresented NASA so badly in his rush to doom they had to disavow his brand of yellow doomer journalism.

It is interesting that rather than pimping 9/11 conspiracies or making up things to put in real scientists mouths, he is now after the peak oil demand scenario. I seem to recall he also fell for peak oil scarcity...back when it was the bandwagon to be on. Nothing quite like a two faced peak oiler.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 28 Aug 2020, 05:39:25

AdamB wrote: now after the peak oil demand scenario. I seem to recall he also fell for peak oil scarcity...back when it was the bandwagon to be on. Nothing quite like a two faced peak oiler.


I once bought into peak oil extremism 2003-2010. Let's be honest there was a legitimacy to it early on. Now we see with the complexity of civilization peak oil is only one of the many marginal problems bringing civilization down. Is it a civilization killer? NO. Is peak oil a disability? Yes. The affordability and the performance of hydrocarbons is in decline. Fossil fuels cannot be substituted 1 for 1 in my opinion by alternatives. Efficiency suffers diminishing returns. We might redesign civilization for less EROI but so far we continue to try to go in the other direction. At least fossil fuel decline is being mitigated with renewables and efficiency so this will help. The systematic decline of civilization becuase of multiple problems that are shaping up to be one big predicament is in my mind overwhelming but the time frame uncertain. Too much complexity and self-organization to figure out an end game plus it is a big world so some places may fare better than others. I can't dismiss peak oil but I am going to say it is not worthy of the top slot of civilization killers.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 29 Aug 2020, 11:39:56

Peak Oil == Peak Demand

How can it be otherwise?
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 29 Aug 2020, 12:04:59

jedrider wrote:Peak Oil == Peak Demand

How can it be otherwise?


Simple, Demand is what you want, Supply is what you get. The whole idea that oil production will peak because demand has peaked is bogus. In the reality where I live world oil demand continues to trend upward because fuel is only one use for petroleum, though it is certainly the dominant one today. Plastics, fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides pharmaceuticals and so on and so forth are all mass users of petroleum chemicals.

We are now several years into exploiting the Texas/New Mexico section of the Permian Basin and as a result Texas is producing more oil today than it ever has before. But for how long? Another decade? Five years? Fifty years? The problem is nobody really knows.

Something we do actually know however is every barrel of oil extracted and used today is one less available in the future, and at some point we tip over from more supply than demand to more demand than available supply. That is the real peak oil. But when?
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Aug 2020, 12:24:02

Subjectivist wrote:Something we do actually know however is every barrel of oil extracted and used today is one less available in the future, and at some point we tip over from more supply than demand to more demand than available supply. That is the real peak oil. But when?

True. OTOH:

1). Every BBL of demand no longer needed for transport buys us time, re running into actual peak oil.

2). Despite the endless claims of doomers, people can and do adapt, and technology and substitution does help, over time.

3). When the equation does tip over to where demand exceeds supply, NOT needing to worry greatly about a huge proportion of the global ground transport network re crude supplies will greatly help mitigate the problem. Oh, having much of the global energy needs coming from green sources and NG won't hurt either.

Yes, it's an issue, like thousands of other significant issues humans face in coming decades, like, say, AGW consequences as a blindingly obvious one -- but it certainly doesn't look like the rapid DOOM so many around here have been claiming for decades.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 29 Aug 2020, 17:26:59

REAL Green wrote:
AdamB wrote: now after the peak oil demand scenario. I seem to recall he also fell for peak oil scarcity...back when it was the bandwagon to be on. Nothing quite like a two faced peak oiler.


I once bought into peak oil extremism 2003-2010. Let's be honest there was a legitimacy to it early on. Now we see with the complexity of civilization peak oil is only one of the many marginal problems bringing civilization down.


"Now" applying to those suckers who fell for the original dogma of doom.

The climate change angle, while lacking the hit octane instant hit of peak oil, seems to be where the doomers fled next. "Doomer", as opposed to "peak oil doomer". There are few peak oil doomers left, they mostly were laughed back under the rocks they originally came out from under. Doomers in general are just folks looking for a means to an end, and they'll bite on whatever the bait of the day is. Guy McPherson being the most widely known example. He keeps trying to turns climate change into doom tomorrow afternoon, but has failed pretty steadily at it for years now.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 29 Aug 2020, 18:55:29

AdamB wrote:[ Doomers in general are just folks looking for a means to an end, and they'll bite on whatever the bait of the day is. Guy McPherson being the most widely known example. He keeps trying to turns climate change into doom tomorrow afternoon, but has failed pretty steadily at it for years now.


You optimist show how bad your unconscious angst is when you attack doomers like you do. You guys try to hard is your problem. I just laugh at the taunts. Science is clear on the risks ahead. A doomer practices risk management. An optimist fiddles while Rome burns. Every year gets worse on multiple levels and our optimists groupies just say its nothing. Everything will be OK cause it always has been OK. LOL. A new gadget will power us through. We will be to Mars soon anyway, right guys. Double LOL.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 29 Aug 2020, 23:00:34

REAL Green wrote:
You optimist show how bad your unconscious angst is when you attack doomers like you do.


Oh....I'm not so sure "attack" is the word...perhaps "gloating" might fit better?

REAL Green wrote: You guys try to hard is your problem. I just laugh at the taunts.


How many of the dooms did you fall for? Mayan calendar? The Great Dieoff of the 1980's? Peak oil (any of them)? Nibiru?

REAL Green wrote: Science is clear on the risks ahead.


Peak oilers tried out the same angle, and look where it got them. If you can find any out in the light of day anyway. They loved making the science claim as well...as it turns out, cherry picking science is great for missionary work to the church.

REAL Green wrote: A doomer practices risk management.


Absolutely!! I recommend managing the risk as to whether or not your church requires this level of dedication to be part of it.

REAL Green wrote: An optimist fiddles while Rome burns.


Optimism had nothing to do with knowing peak oil doom was a crock. That science thing again...don't cherry pick to support your belief system, critical and objective thinking, etc. etc.

REAL Green wrote: Every year gets worse on multiple levels and our optimists groupies just say its nothing. Everything will be OK cause it always has been OK. LOL. A new gadget will power us through. We will be to Mars soon anyway, right guys. Double LOL.


Double LOL indeed. Did you know that you probably don't even know you, or your parents, were supposed to survive the Great Dieoff of the 80's? And yet...here you are...just like the rest of us. Can you imagine? You've already survived the ultimate global doom, probably didn't even know you did it, and it didn't require an instants knowledge or application of the principles of risk management!!! How did you do it!! :lol:
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 30 Aug 2020, 06:50:20

AdamB wrote:Oh....I'm not so sure "attack" is the word...perhaps "gloating" might fit better?


gloating is attacking but even more dellusional. That means you are emotional and deranged too

AdamB wrote:How many of the dooms did you fall for? Mayan calendar? The Great Dieoff of the 1980's? Peak oil (any of them)? Nibiru?


None, I am just preparing for decline. I took PO seriously for a time and learned from it. You obviously are learning from nothing and just locked into everything is great and I am great BS. Obviously you got a attitude issue with how wonderful you are.

AdamB wrote:Peak oilers tried out the same angle, and look where it got them. If you can find any out in the light of day anyway. They loved making the science claim as well...as it turns out, cherry picking science is great for missionary work to the church.


You are just deflecting reality friend with an attempt at belittling humor. The risks are everywhere and you are just dismissing them. It is not any one issue it is the summation, converging, and reinforcing of all of the above issues. I don't need to list them becuase if you don't already know them then you lack a scientific background to debate anyway.



More odd deflection from a real response which I assume means you are lacking any real desire to deal with the issue. Attacking with insults instead is not a valid response. At least show you have an education.

AdamB wrote: Optimism had nothing to do with knowing peak oil doom was a crock. That science thing again...don't cherry pick to support your belief system, critical and objective thinking, etc. etc.


Blind optimism is denial and delusion and that clearly describes you plus add in cocky and nasty. Itemize the cherry picking and explain "belief system". You know very little about me and my belief system. You keep mentioning PO but fail to list any other forces of decline. I think I am using critical and objective thinking and you are the one emotional and insulting mainly becuase deep down inside you are scared of what is ahead. Your self admitted wonderful life I saw you post earlier with your little ongoing feud with Armageddon shows me you think you got a great life that we should look up to. Your description sounded very selfish and empty to me.

AdamB wrote:Double LOL indeed. Did you know that you probably don't even know you, or your parents, were supposed to survive the Great Dieoff of the 80's? And yet...here you are...just like the rest of us. Can you imagine? You've already survived the ultimate global doom, probably didn't even know you did it, and it didn't require an instants knowledge or application of the principles of risk management!!! How did you do it!! :lol:


WTF is the Great Dieoff anyway? Explain yourself before you spout off nonsense. My doomerism is academic and a life system of living more sustainable and resilient. A simpler life closer to nature. Honest and accepting instead of pretentious and excessively proud like you. Life as we know it may not end or it may. It might be a process of decline very gentle or an extreme of events that cause a cascading collpase. I am planning for a way of life under pressure and in decline. I plan for both possibilities but understand slow decline is survivable but a hard collpase maybe not. This thinking has resulted in a very rewarding way of life I call REAL Green. I mix prepping and green living together in low carbon capture efforts with animals, garden, orchard, and wood biomass heat. I practice conservation and include solar in my effort. I embrace efficiency and tech where applicable. I still live a normal life but in the humility of the acceptance of decline. I come from a wealthy family and I am well educated so I have likely seen much more of life and the world than you have. So attack me all you like all you do for me is represent another angry guy like ASG out doing the forum hit man stuff. You don't have much else to do so attack people on an obscure forum. Boring!
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 30 Aug 2020, 12:49:11

jedrider wrote:Peak Oil == Peak Demand
How can it be otherwise?


Wrong. Peak oil = geologic depletion (i.e. peak supply).

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Aug 2020, 20:48:11

REAL Green wrote:
AdamB wrote:How many of the dooms did you fall for? Mayan calendar? The Great Dieoff of the 1980's? Peak oil (any of them)? Nibiru?


None, I am just preparing for decline. I took PO seriously for a time and learned from it. You obviously are learning from nothing and just locked into everything is great and I am great BS. Obviously you got a attitude issue with how wonderful you are.


I might have an attitude about having known better than to take PO seriously, but that is as far as it goes. Not that you would know that...being REAL green and all, compared to all the fake green folks.

REAL Green wrote:You are just deflecting reality friend with an attempt at belittling humor. The risks are everywhere and you are just dismissing them. It is not any one issue it is the summation, converging, and reinforcing of all of the above issues. I don't need to list them becuase if you don't already know them then you lack a scientific background to debate anyway.


Oh stop, now you are doomer projecting. "Gee, I was silly enough to fall for peak oil, and learned how stupid I was when it comes to complex topics like this, but THIS TIME...I'VE GOT IT CLOCKED!!"

REAL Green wrote:
AdamB wrote: Optimism had nothing to do with knowing peak oil doom was a crock. That science thing again...don't cherry pick to support your belief system, critical and objective thinking, etc. etc.


Blind optimism is denial and delusion and that clearly describes you plus add in cocky and nasty. Itemize the cherry picking and explain "belief system".


Don't get me started on the Church of Peak Oil.

REAL Green wrote:WTF is the Great Dieoff anyway? Explain yourself before you spout off nonsense.


OMG what are you? Some 14 year old who doesn't know squat about how long doomers have been proclaiming the end of the world? Earth Day 1970 ring a bell? Do you know ANYTHING about the history of the church of doom?

Start here, and explain how you ain't..this. I don't mind conversing with doomers, but for the love of pete at least recognize what you are, as expressed by the prior link, and then you can tell me why you aren't just another one of these.

REAL Green wrote:My doomerism is academic and a life system of living more sustainable and resilient. A simpler life closer to nature. Honest and accepting instead of pretentious and excessively proud like you. Life as we know it may not end or it may. It might be a process of decline very gentle or an extreme of events that cause a cascading collpase. I am planning for a way of life under pressure and in decline. I plan for both possibilities but understand slow decline is survivable but a hard collpase maybe not. This thinking has resulted in a very rewarding way of life I call REAL Green.


Sure. See the two links above, you start with those, and then built your cool doomer scenario around your favorite scenario. Doom Fantasy League play, as it were.

Doomers do it all the time. They like fishing or hunting, so doom is the excuse to get a fishing or hunting cabin. Doomers in the city love talking abut BOBs, MZB fearing doomers talk guns and homemade claymores, the eco-interested claim growing tomatoes in window boxes are the cure. You aren't any different, and no more real, than all these folks. When doom can be as slow as the next 4 peak oils, or as fast as a continental sized flood basalt flow, it is unlikely that you have prepared for the doom that you get. You prep for the one you LIKE. Come on REAL Green, this is all in the church handbook, you are going through it point by point as best I can tell.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Aug 2020, 20:51:42

asg70 wrote:
jedrider wrote:Peak Oil == Peak Demand
How can it be otherwise?


Wrong. Peak oil = geologic depletion (i.e. peak supply).


I seem to recall the peak oil definition as basically, a maximum rate, followed by a terminal decline. Never noticed folks specifically excluding the second, and obviously available, mechanism via which that decline could happen. Did someone change the definition at some point, to require only 1 of the 2 mechanisms available be credited with the terminal decline part?
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 30 Aug 2020, 23:12:40

You're being disingenuous. The fact is that the peak oil movement framed peak oil as a supply problem, hence referencing Mad Max as our most probable future. They discounted the idea that we would leave oil before oil left us...outside of hand-wringing that we did not heed the Hirsch Report, but even then, out would come the thermodynamic analysis ala Catton to show that our population size is due to oil and no amount of substitution would prevent a population crash of some kind. They also discounted the idea that global warming would overtake peak oil as our proximate threat.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 31 Aug 2020, 18:21:16

asg70 wrote:You're being disingenuous.


Oh come now. While I might poke the Happy McPeakster set for fun, I also do real specific, theory, practice and history of this particular religion.

asg70 wrote: The fact is that the peak oil movement framed peak oil as a supply problem, hence referencing Mad Max as our most probable future.


You are exactly right. The peak oil movement choose to frame their scenario around one of two possible mechanisms. We get to make fun of them for refusing to learn the most basic precepts of one of the sciences necessary to understand the entire picture.

The doomers didn't care about that though, as they seemed to mostly just want a trigger for their Rapture event. Just because they chose to be uninformed in the relevant sciences doesn't change the facts of what COULD cause peak oil.

asg70 wrote: They discounted the idea that we would leave oil before oil left us...outside of hand-wringing that we did not heed the Hirsch Report, but even then, out would come the thermodynamic analysis ala Catton to show that our population size is due to oil and no amount of substitution would prevent a population crash of some kind. They also discounted the idea that global warming would overtake peak oil as our proximate threat.


I agree that they really got it wrong, in all sorts of ways that were quite obvious in real time.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 06 Sep 2020, 06:40:51

“U.S, Shale Recovery Leans On Huge Inventory Of DUCs”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... -DUCs.html

“The recovery of fracking operations in the US is happening largely thanks to an unusually high inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), which is strong enough to sustain the current level of fracking without the industry adding more rigs to expand drilling deep into 2021, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. After DUCs run out, however, rig activity in the five key oil regions needs to be in the 280-300 range to maintain flat oil output. Actual rig activity today is almost 50% lower than that requirement, but the industry still has about two to three-quarters of leverage, based on the current DUC count, to achieve a smooth transition from a DUC-driven activity phase to a regular operations mode. The Permian Basin, where the recovery in fracking has been most pronounced, can still accommodate 13 months of activity at last month’s pace. With a normal DUC-to-fracking ratio of about five months, this implies that Permian operators are carrying an inventory that is equivalent to eight months of fracking at the current pace.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 08 Sep 2020, 06:08:58

“The Best Electricity Plan: Overbuild Solar & Wind Power Plants”
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/th ... er-plants/

“Meanwhile, the report found that, creating more electricity than required during regular hours to meet high energy use (but during low wind hours) would have lower costs compared to storing the excess energy for higher consumption later (of course, this is based on the assumption we won’t see any storage breakthroughs in that time)…The result with regards to this study is clear: it makes even more sense to simply overbuild cheap wind and solar power plants than to try to fill in the gaps between supply and demand using fossil fuel power plants. Even leaving environmental matters out of it, it’s simply cheaper to overbuild low-cost solar and wind power plants. What seemed like a radical idea back in 2012 is gaining increasing support today. More and more people see that, indeed, solar power, wind power, and batteries have become cheap enough that you don’t need “baseload power” or other filler power plants in many places. Naturally, the precise splits in energy sources and how much they are overbuilt is something best explored for individual regions or utility districts.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 11 Sep 2020, 10:00:51

REAL Green wrote:“The Best Electricity Plan: Overbuild Solar & Wind Power Plants”
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/th ... er-plants/

“Meanwhile, the report found that, creating more electricity than required during regular hours to meet high energy use (but during low wind hours) would have lower costs compared to storing the excess energy for higher consumption later (of course, this is based on the assumption we won’t see any storage breakthroughs in that time)…The result with regards to this study is clear: it makes even more sense to simply overbuild cheap wind and solar power plants than to try to fill in the gaps between supply and demand using fossil fuel power plants. Even leaving environmental matters out of it, it’s simply cheaper to overbuild low-cost solar and wind power plants. What seemed like a radical idea back in 2012 is gaining increasing support today. More and more people see that, indeed, solar power, wind power, and batteries have become cheap enough that you don’t need “baseload power” or other filler power plants in many places. Naturally, the precise splits in energy sources and how much they are overbuilt is something best explored for individual regions or utility districts.”


Naturally we won't worry about all the bird bats and bugs these "renewable" systems kill, nor the environmental clean up costs, nor the vast land areas they cover compared to alternatives like Nuclear or Geothermal...
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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