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The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 11 Sep 2020, 10:31:07

Tanada wrote:Naturally we won't worry about all the bird bats and bugs these "renewable" systems kill, nor the environmental clean up costs, nor the vast land areas they cover compared to alternatives like Nuclear or Geothermal...


My approach on the subject for what is worth is an accelerated but rational build out combined with a manageable degrowth effort. A Green New deal is a joke. Dramatic degrowth is also a joke. The status quo is killing us. Since what will happen will be both rational and irrational plus above my pay scale I recommend an individual and local response in a orientation to a decline process. This decline process has an ever present collpase possibility both regional and global. Naturally the environment and climate have been damaged beyond human restoration but local restorations can make a big difference in places.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 11 Sep 2020, 13:44:14

I wonder if air travel will ever return to previous levels? We may have seen peak air travel:

“How Long Will It Take For The Airline Industry To Recover?”
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/econ ... to-recover

“Estimates vary widely from 4 to 9 years depending on the source…Lehman Offers This Assessment Bureaucratic caution will lead most countries to take an additional 6-12 months after herd immunity is achieved before reopening to most inbound non-resident passengers. Even for domestic or regional travel, passengers must feel safe from infection before they’ll fly again. Countries with greater internal consumption of domestic production should recover sooner than trade-dependent countries. Accordingly, domestic travel in the US, EU, and China is likely to return sooner than in most other regions. Getting business travelers back on airplanes will require renewed economic activity, in addition to the obvious safety requirements. Improved video conferencing technologies like Zoom, Skype, and Google Meet make a similar structural shift all but inevitable as businesses learn how to operate in a COVID-impaired world where air travel is challenging and inconvenient. As long as travel demand remains depressed, supply will fall in other parts of the travel ecosystem, especially hotels. Airlines that restore capacity too quickly will see their profitability dented as too many seats chase too few passengers.Bottom line: Global air travel won’t be back to pre-COVID volume for several years I selected the above bullet points from a long article. Here is Leeham's Bottom line: "Global air travel won’t be back to pre-COVID volume for several years"
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 14 Sep 2020, 16:41:08

“BP Comes Clean On Energy, Admits Oil Demand Growth Is Dead”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Dead.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/ ... tlook.html

“The world is past the era of growing crude oil demand, BP said in its annual energy outlook report, which was released today. The message of the outlook, according to media reports, is that oil consumption may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, and not just because of the pandemic itself but because of factors that have been at play long before the coronavirus made the jump from bats to humans. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” the company said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation…Under BP’s Rapid scenario, demand for liquid fuels will drop to 55 million bpd by 2050, with the scenario also factoring in a 70-percent reduction in emissions from energy use by that year. Under the Net Zero scenario, emissions will be reduced by 95 percent by 2050, which would result in liquid fuel demand shrinking to 30 million bpd.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 15 Sep 2020, 13:39:00

Another datapoint in favor of peak oil DEMAND rather than supply.

Mad Max....DENIED!

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 17 Sep 2020, 06:11:51

“The World's Last Great Oilfield: An Interview With Nick Steinsberger”
https://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Wor ... erger.html

“Namibia’s Kavango Basin in what could very well be the world’s last-ever discovery of a massive onshore sedimentary basin. In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Steinsberger reveals: Why Namibia is our best chance of a shale boom repeat Why the country’s Kavango Basin is looking like it could be the next Texas Permian Why the man who invented ‘slick-water fracking’ is ready to drill the Kavango Basin Why Reconnaissance Energy Africa (TSX: RECO.V, OTCMKTS:RECAF) is our best bet at finding the next major onshore discovery Why 120 billion boe potential is entirely feasible Why in his opinion reward far outweighs risk”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 21 Sep 2020, 21:14:31

"How much oil left in America? Not much"
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/

"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 11:50:50

JuanP wrote:"How much oil left in America? Not much"
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/

"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."


Once again an author is assuming facts not in evidence.

We knew, down to our cores, that the USA had peaked in 1971 and would NEVER produce more oil than it did that year. Except it turned out Fracking let us break that record about 5 years ago and we have stayed above the 1971 level ever since then.

We believe we know that because the North Sea fields went into decline around 2003 that the UK/Denmark/Norway will never produce more oil than they did in 2003. But up to this point very little attempt has been made to frack the continental land masses where these nation occupy the geography, so it is entirely possible they will all three have a bonanza of new oil to exploit when Fracking takes place. The reason it hasn't happened yet is complex, but ultimately the economics are such that so long as the USA is producing and selling cheap fracked oil world demand is met and the need for additional oil is limited making fracking in the UK et al a risky financial proposition.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 16:28:21

JuanP wrote:"How much oil left in America? Not much"
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/

"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."


Alice is a riot, as only an unrepentant Happy McPeakster can be.

"Electric trucks are physically impossible!!!!!" as one of Elon's semi's zooms by....
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 18:05:59

Next thing the corns will hurrah about - is when the asphalt roads are being pulled up and converted to gasoline...

"We have twarted the peak-oilers again! Who could have thought we could produce this much oil??"
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 19:17:11

Peak_Yeast wrote:Next thing the corns will hurrah about - is when the asphalt roads are being pulled up and converted to gasoline...


OMG!!! That is like a blast from the idiot side of the peak oil tracks of yesteryear!! I remember Ruppert "I paid all my debts except to that woman at the office I danced in my underwear in front of" talking about how this was already happening, you know, asphalt being so expensive because of peak oil and whatnot, roads becoming dirt out of necessity.

Thanks for the laugh!! Folks don't discuss peak oil type stuff anymore, the diehards all either crawled under rocks or changed their spots and became climate doomers or Guy McPherson junkies.

Peak Yeast wrote:"We have twarted the peak-oilers again! Who could have thought we could produce this much oil??"


Certainly not the Happy McPeaksters!!! They couldn't even add up all the stuff that was perfectly visible all those years ago!! Never quite sure if it was because they were ignorant and didn't know where to find the information, or just couldn't add?
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 20:40:24

Peak_Yeast wrote:Next thing the corns will hurrah about - is when the asphalt roads are being pulled up and converted to gasoline...

"We have twarted the peak-oilers again! Who could have thought we could produce this much oil??"

If that's the best you have -- quit while you're behind.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 20:57:17

Tanada wrote:
JuanP wrote:"How much oil left in America? Not much"
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/

"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."


Once again an author is assuming facts not in evidence.

We knew, down to our cores, that the USA had peaked in 1971 and would NEVER produce more oil than it did that year. Except it turned out Fracking let us break that record about 5 years ago and we have stayed above the 1971 level ever since then.

We believe we know that because the North Sea fields went into decline around 2003 that the UK/Denmark/Norway will never produce more oil than they did in 2003. But up to this point very little attempt has been made to frack the continental land masses where these nation occupy the geography, so it is entirely possible they will all three have a bonanza of new oil to exploit when Fracking takes place. The reason it hasn't happened yet is complex, but ultimately the economics are such that so long as the USA is producing and selling cheap fracked oil world demand is met and the need for additional oil is limited making fracking in the UK et al a risky financial proposition.


The article is about peak fracking.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 23:29:05

ralfy wrote:The article is about peak fracking.


No it wasn't. It was Alice doing what she does. Like Matt, you know, the one who ran away from everything he ever said or wrote, including groupies seeking a father figure. The astrologist. Makes him far more informed than Alice I'm guessing. You remember him, what he said about folks on his website? The religious nuts, father figure seeking groupies wanting their hands held for fear of doom. Weren't you like a founding member?

In either case, it is unlikely you know any more about fracking than you do peak oil, having been trained in the priesthood of peak by an astrologist.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 18:02:46

The Oil Age is almost over. California is outlawing the ICE automobile in 2035. We're all going to be driving around in autos powered by solar cells by then.

Calif. Gov. Newsom orders ban on sales of gas-powered cars by 2035
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Newsom-ban-gas-powered-cars-15-years-15591505.php
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 18:13:40

jedrider wrote:The Oil Age is almost over. California is outlawing the ICE automobile in 2035. We're all going to be driving around in autos powered by solar cells by then.


BP certainly thinks so. Peak oil demand, who could have imagined it except economists!!
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 18:50:35

The Oil Age is almost over. California is outlawing the ICE automobile in 2035. We're all going to be driving around in autos powered by solar cells by then.


Bloombergs annual review of EV implementation indicated that EVs would continue to take over some market share but given overall demand will continue to increase ICE will still increase out to 2030. Their point is that even if all the new ICE were supplanted by EV by legislation there would be an equal number of ICE on the road in 2040 as there is now. Most people hang onto vehicles for about 10 years so that makes sense. If that is the case the demand for oil will be the same in 2040 as it was before Covid hit.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 20:31:35

rockdoc123 wrote:
The Oil Age is almost over. California is outlawing the ICE automobile in 2035. We're all going to be driving around in autos powered by solar cells by then.


Bloombergs annual review of EV implementation indicated that EVs would continue to take over some market share but given overall demand will continue to increase ICE will still increase out to 2030. Their point is that even if all the new ICE were supplanted by EV by legislation there would be an equal number of ICE on the road in 2040 as there is now. Most people hang onto vehicles for about 10 years so that makes sense. If that is the case the demand for oil will be the same in 2040 as it was before Covid hit.


Bingo! Peak Oil.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 21:23:45

And so?
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 21:51:22

rockdoc123 wrote:
The Oil Age is almost over. California is outlawing the ICE automobile in 2035. We're all going to be driving around in autos powered by solar cells by then.


Bloombergs annual review of EV implementation indicated that EVs would continue to take over some market share but given overall demand will continue to increase ICE will still increase out to 2030. Their point is that even if all the new ICE were supplanted by EV by legislation there would be an equal number of ICE on the road in 2040 as there is now. Most people hang onto vehicles for about 10 years so that makes sense. If that is the case the demand for oil will be the same in 2040 as it was before Covid hit.


I think it is considerably worse than that as China is still in the rapid growth phase and India and Indonesia are just getting started. That isn't even considering Sub-Saharan Africa where people are finally becoming wealthy enough to have 21st century lifestyles including private cars. By 2040 all three areas of Asia should be at about European private vehicle per capita levels and Sub-Saharan Africa not far behind.

Then you need to account for another 20 years of world population growth which will put the kids born this year at prime want a car age in 2040.

So if the USA/EU go all gooey eyed on electric cars that might slow things a little, but the major growth sectors have been elsewhere for a couple decades now and pretending what we do is the be all end all is just ethnocentrism writ large.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 23 Sep 2020, 22:45:05

jedrider wrote:Bingo! Peak Oil.


Again!
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