eclipse wrote:AdamB wrote:The good news being, with Illinois gun laws, I sure won't be moving there. Ever.
Hi AdamB,
I'm watching the video you have linked in your signature, and I'm about a third of the way in. It's great so far, but I'm a little sceptical that the lithium costs can drop low enough, fast enough for where I think the talk is going.
I seem to recall folks saying something similar about oil, back when it was claimed to be running out during the 1970's energy crisis in the US.
You are correct of course, any non-renewable is going to be an issue in terms of cost and availability at some point. Usually not as soon as expected, but it is the very word, the "non renewable" part. It should be noted that just because Tony is bullish on and mentions a particular type of battery, there is no more requirement that they remain primarily lithium based. Solid states seem to be the next big thing. And ultimately I think fuel cells are the better answer.
In any case, the future of personal transport isn't going to be burning precious chemical feedstocks like crude oil, that is just plain stupid.
eclipse wrote:Basically, batteries for EV's, great, but batteries to enable intermittent renewables to phase out nukes? I'm sceptical. Have you read this?
https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/ener ... -disruptedPS: I'm at half way and he's just covered how long EV's will last. Mind blown!
Something about those lack of moving parts that really gives them an advantage, doesn't it? Running 100K plus on mine, just did the ICE maintenance for the next 100K. Battery still at or very close to same SOC as it was 5 years ago.
eclipse wrote:PPS: Aside from his question of when batteries + solar become 'disruptive' to utilities, when do batteries + solar let us run society without baseload, especially countries like Germany where renewables might be cut 90% for weeks at a time in winter? How on earth do you charge up those batteries for long enough?
Nukes? Natural gas power generation seems to have quite a decent (call it half century pretty easily) future in front of it.