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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 10:19:46

https://www2.greencarreports.com/news/1 ... gXU0PRCrlU
Given the daily churn of electric-car announcements, major manufacturing investments, and battery supply-chain news, it could be a little hard to understand one reality-check projection: that even in 2030, a solid majority of vehicles sold could still burn fossil fuel.

Last week, LMC Automotive, a consulting firm with a strong reputation for its market forecasts, rounded up some of its current estimates. It anticipates that in the U.S. internal combustion engines will still make up 69 percent of the new-car market in 2030—and that more than half of global vehicle demand then will still have tailpipes and fuel tanks.
The biggest reality check, LMC says, will come for India, where its government said in 2017 that the entire market there will be electrified by 2030. The current 2030 target of 30 percent applies to a wide range of vehicle types, but LMC anticipates that just 3 percent of light vehicles in India will be electric by then.

In the U.S., on the way to 2030, LMC estimates that vehicles with internal combustion engines will lose one to three percent of market share per year.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Pops » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 13:12:18

The cheapest EV costs about the same as the average new car $33k+/-

The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/that-sh ... icans.html

I'd be more than happy to drive an EV but at around 100 miles per month between the 2 of us there is no way.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 13:56:24

Pops wrote:The cheapest EV costs about the same as the average new car $33k+/-

The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/that-sh ... icans.html

I'd be more than happy to drive an EV but at around 100 miles per month between the 2 of us there is no way.

There is a story that is a complete crock. They throw out a bunch of arbitrary rules and conditions that don't really match the real world and then say the average guy cant by a new car. In the real world if your pressed for income you don't buy the average car you buy the cheapest and you put nothing down and pay for it including the sales tax over 60 to 72 months. And if you need a car to get to work it does not matter if it costs more then ten percent of your gross income because if you don't have it there will be no gross income.
You can buy five different new cars in the US for $15,000, with six percent sales tax added in that comes to $265 a month and you (if you are not Evil kanevil) can insure it for another $100/ month. These cars get 35mpg highway so using 32 average and 15,000 per year at $3.00 a gallon another $117 a month. So all told it comes to $15.50 a day or less then a lot of peoples beer and cigarette budget.
One line they do slip in there mostly unnoticed is that people are being squeezed by rising health care cost and stagnant wages so health care is the problem not the cost of cars.
We are now at the point where they won't wait for you to get sick to take all your money they are going to bankrupt you while you are still healthy so you can't spend it all before you get sick.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 13:32:06

kublikhan wrote:
baha wrote:If main stream manufacturers think they are going to sell EVs they better get with installing chargers ASAP. Only Tesla's are able to reliably take a road trip. This is long term planning...
Don't forget that in the US there are an average of 2 cars per household. That means a 2 car household can have an ICE vehicle for road trips and an EV for a commuter vehicle. Currently with only about 1% of cars sold in the US being EVs there is not much incentive for a massive rollout of chargers. However if this number were to increase to a much larger percent there would be more incentive for a larger rollout of chargers.

And let's not forget that chargers ARE being rolled out across the country, by more than one group. It's just not super rapid -- nor does it need to be yet.

Economics, re the profit motive, works. If there ends up being a screaming need for more charges "all over the place", believe me, smart folks somewhere will make a LOT of effort to make that happen, and be rewarded with lots of profits, as they should be.

Meanwhile, with 200+ mile BEV's becoming commonplace (and likely 300 to 400 miles being relatively common for those willing to pay in the future), and the real world round trip for the average commuter under 50 miles, it's not like it's going to be an unsolvable problem.

Home garage charging already is a popular thing. Inductive charging for the streets or apartments is a distinct possibility for those without garages. Etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 13:39:26

vtsnowedin wrote:
Pops wrote:The cheapest EV costs about the same as the average new car $33k+/-

The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/that-sh ... icans.html

There is a story that is a complete crock. They throw out a bunch of arbitrary rules and conditions that don't really match the real world and then say the average guy cant by a new car. In the real world if your pressed for income you don't buy the average car you buy the cheapest and you put nothing down and pay for it including the sales tax over 60 to 72 months. And if you need a car to get to work it does not matter if it costs more then ten percent of your gross income because if you don't have it there will be no gross income.
You can buy five different new cars in the US for $15,000, with six percent sales tax added in that comes to $265 a month and you (if you are not Evil kanevil) can insure it for another $100/ month. These cars get 35mpg highway so using 32 average and 15,000 per year at $3.00 a gallon another $117 a month. So all told it comes to $15.50 a day or less then a lot of peoples beer and cigarette budget.
One line they do slip in there mostly unnoticed is that people are being squeezed by rising health care cost and stagnant wages so health care is the problem not the cost of cars.
We are now at the point where they won't wait for you to get sick to take all your money they are going to bankrupt you while you are still healthy so you can't spend it all before you get sick.

+1

And that doesn't even get into the idea that good gently used cars with low mileage can cost
50ish percent of what a new car would. Last I checked, Consumer Reports said the most economical way to buy cars was to buy such cars 3 years old, and keep them to 10 years old. Given how GOOD and reliable modern cars are getting, that 10 years might well be getting to be more like 12 or even 15 years, given that the average age of cars is approaching 12 years already -- including for cars that aren't well cared for.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/24110/by- ... -than-ever

Also, given how well modern computers can check out the major systems on modern cars, and how long drive train warranties (i.e. the expensive major components) are getting to be, it's not like you're even taking a lot of risk to save a huge proportion of the new car sticker price.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Pops » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 12:19:10

I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

I posted that the average car sells for $30k, and the cheapest EV sells for... $30k making them unaffordable for me and lots of other people by simple, frugal criteria: 20% down/ payments =10% income.

Yet somehow that was an invitation to wax eloquent on yankee frugality?
That we shouldn't be concerned with the cost of EVs because... a 10 year old kia can be had for $15?
Or is this just the right-knee-jerk spasmodic defense of the trump economy?
Maybe everything is fine because CC is a Chinese hoax?
Or the latest: maybe the sound gives you cancer?
LOL
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 12:27:21

Pops wrote:I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

I posted that the average car sells for $30k, and the cheapest EV sells for... $30k making them unaffordable for me and lots of other people by simple, frugal criteria: 20% down/ payments =10% income.

Yet somehow that was an invitation to wax eloquent on yankee frugality?
That we shouldn't be concerned with the cost of EVs because... a 10 year old kia can be had for $15?
Or is this just the right-knee-jerk spasmodic defense of the trump economy?
Maybe everything is fine because CC is a Chinese hoax?
Or the latest: maybe the sound gives you cancer?
LOL

No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car. I merely pointed out it was a stupid story using arbitrary rules that do not apply to the real world.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Pops » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 14:51:36

vtsnowedin wrote:No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car.


Pops wrote:
The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 16:50:09

Pops wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car.


Pops wrote:
The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

Yes you are re quoting the story which is wrong to the point of being stupid.
Argue the point if you want but don't just keep throwing up idiocy.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:36:28

Pops wrote:I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

I posted that the average car sells for $30k, and the cheapest EV sells for... $30k making them unaffordable for me and lots of other people by simple, frugal criteria: 20% down/ payments =10% income.

Yet somehow that was an invitation to wax eloquent on yankee frugality?
That we shouldn't be concerned with the cost of EVs because... a 10 year old kia can be had for $15?
Or is this just the right-knee-jerk spasmodic defense of the trump economy?
Maybe everything is fine because CC is a Chinese hoax?
Or the latest: maybe the sound gives you cancer?
LOL

Liberals get their feelings hurt SO easily.

And you whining about the Trump economy IS "on point" if you're concerned about staying on the point of the thread? OK then. (I don't even like Trump, but it's the principle of the thing).

I didn't realize it's so evil to point out that there are plenty of good alternatives to cars being "too expensive to afford", given how much better technology has made cars.

If you have no cheaper choice than a $30K car AND there are no alternatives to be had, THEN, yes, it's right to be concerned about the cost of a $30K car. In the real world, EV's will get cheaper over time. And plenty of used EV's (gently and otherwise) will no doubt exist. So fear not.

Am I still too far off point?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:43:37

vtsnowedin wrote:
Pops wrote:I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car. I merely pointed out it was a stupid story using arbitrary rules that do not apply to the real world.

Uh, yeah, what VTS said. And that was why I chimed in. Claiming the average person can't afford a new car isn't a valid claim. It's politics.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Cog » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:44:42

People on median incomes buy $150,000 dollar houses all the time. They also buy $30,000 cars and finance them. Can they walk in a write a check for the full amount? Nope.
But most people use credit for large purchases. Someone is buying cars out there or the car makers would all be bankrupt.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 04:30:45

To add a bit. The average car is the average because that is what is selling. If the guy making the median could not afford it there would be lower sales of them and some cheaper car would be the average. The story was ridiculous from the start because it declared sound policy was a twenty percent down payment 48 month loan etc. when in reality zero down payment zero interest sixty and even seventy two month terms are common. My last two new cars were both bought at zero interest. I made considerable down payments because I had money in the checking account but both could have been had with zero down and both were what would fill the bill for just a bit less then the "average" vehicle. One was a Toyota Rav4 and the other a Nissan Frontier small pickup.
The "average" buyer only puts down the equity he may have in the vehicle he is trading in not some fixed percentage like twenty percent.
You should consider the source of the story CNBC. It is fake news trying to convince readers times are bad and of course this fake terrible situation is the Trump administrations fault.
And finally to get back to electric vehicles, they do not need to be "average" in price or range as of yet because there are plenty of" first adopters" (those people that have to have the latest thing even though their last one is not yet off warranty) out there that have not yet bought their first EV and it will take Musk and the rest of the EV manufacturers years if not a decade to fill that demand. Those that will pay $1000 for the newest dumb phone will happily pay fifty to eighty thousand for a "gee whizz" EV. The rest of us can wait for these brave souls to go forth and prove out the worth of EVs and get the bugs out of the systems before we average buyers find one fills our needs at a price we can afford.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 08:17:40

I moved the Tesla distraction back over into the Tesla specific thread, please keep this thread for generic EV's from companies OTHER than TESLA. TYVM.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 08:22:45

We can not discuss electric vehicles without mentioning Tesla.
Get a grip.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 09:13:50

vtsnowedin wrote:We can not discuss electric vehicles without mentioning Tesla.
Get a grip.


I did not say 'do not mention tesla' I said posts that are exclusively about current developments at Tesla or otherwise Tesla exclusive belong in the Tesla thread. For pities sake, surely you can stick to a topic once in a while can't you?

Folks who are Tesla obsessed were split off for good reasons. That one company comes to dominate the entire conversation like a festering sore and makes posts about Nissan or GM or Ford EV offerings get drowned out.

If you make a post that references several EV types adding Tesla to the mix is on topic. Making a run of posts about the Tesla giga-factory and its relationship to part suppliers on the other hand belongs in the Tesla thread.

Yes its a judgement call, and that is my judgement.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 15:07:19

Tanada wrote:If you make a post that references several EV types adding Tesla to the mix is on topic. Making a run of posts about the Tesla giga-factory and its relationship to part suppliers on the other hand belongs in the Tesla thread.

Yes its a judgement call, and that is my judgement.

Sounds perfectly reasonable to me. I try not to mess up on that too often, but it's easy for ANY of us to get sidetracked when arguing about a specific topic, and things drift.

FWIW, I appreciate the topics having some relevance re the vast majority of the posts, and to the extent I screw up on that from time to time, mods -- PLEASE don't hesitate to correct me and/or move my stuff to the correct location.

Folks, given what the mods do for us on this site over time, is trying to work with them really too much?

In my experience, the mods are open to rational discussion via PM, when you disagree with something or don't understand something, FWIW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 06:50:01

Have people heard of Innolith? Sounds amazing.
Innolith AG, Swiss maker of rechargeable Inorganic Battery Technology, says they have the world’s first 1000 Wh/kg rechargeable battery. This would triple the range of electric cars. The Innolith Energy Battery would radically reduce costs by not using exotic and expensive materials.

Innolith will make an initial pilot production in Germany and then create licensing partnerships with major battery and automotive companies. Development and commercialization of the Innolith Energy Battery is anticipated to take between three and five years.

It will also be the first non-flammable lithium-based battery for use in EVs. The Innolith battery uses a non-flammable inorganic electrolyte, unlike conventional EV batteries that use a flammable organic electrolyte. The switch to non-flammable batteries removes the primary cause of battery fires that have beset the manufacturers of EVs.

Innolith has already proven the breakthrough character of non-flammable, inorganic rechargeable batteries with its first product, a Grid-Scale Power Battery that is used today in the PJM grid in the US to provide fast frequency regulation services. The chemistry used in this battery has been proven to operate for more than 55,000 full depth of discharge cycles, which is between 10 and 100 times the maximum number of cycles of existing Li-ion batteries in use today.

60 Gigawatt Hour Throughput
In October 2018, Innolith announced a breakthrough in battery technology for grid and industrial applications that will see the lifetime throughput more than doubled compared to previous batteries. The new battery technology when used in an Innolith GridBank system will have a lifetime throughput of over 60 GWh of energy over its 50,000 cycle lifetime and so dramatically cut costs for the use of batteries for grid applications. The performance breakthrough means that Innolith batteries will now cost between one third and one tenth per cycle compared to conventional Li ion batteries.


https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/04/t ... range.html
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 22:55:24

I've been reading about the changes with robot-taxis for over a decade. Just when I think I understand the implications something else comes along. It will take a while, but I'm convinced of the following:-
* They will be so cheap to hire most people will stop buying their own cars
* As soon as the laws are sorted, Tesla will make 1 million "robot-ubers" available to the public in 2020.
https://tinyurl.com/y58wdsed
* If we continue to buy our own cars, we might be tempted to send them on our own individualistic errands during the day making traffic up to 5 times WORSE! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSmTF6KoUb8
* If we instead get an even cheaper shared mini-bus trip into town each day, it could cut traffic by half to maybe 75%!
* it will eliminate car parking towers in CBD's, returning car park lots to local residential and commercial and parks increasing the density and walk-ability of our cities. We will be able to fundamentally rethink the urban landscape as car-parks simply disappear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEebyt6G5kM
* There will come a critical mass of robot-taxis when the car majors complain to government that 'most people' want this service and don't want to be inconvenienced by human drivers mucking up intersections. Robot-taxis will talk to each other and coordinate how they get through intersections without traffic lights or stopping. Humans simply CANNOT participate in this, and so eventually human driving will be banned - just like riding horses on the highway is banned.
https://tinyurl.com/y3kykaah
* There is good evidence that battery technology is still getting cheaper and going further.
* However, if there was any 'range anxiety' autonomous vehicles would be able to co-ordinate with fleets of other vehicles. Going on a long road trip? Maybe you'll hire a special hydrogen vehicle. You don't care what fuel type it uses as the company co-ordinates all the fuelling stations. Or will your special road-trip mean your robot-EV-taxi takes a special scenic route, where you can stop off for a holiday lunch and look at the local attractions while it fast charges? Or will it give you a discount if it has to swap you to another freshly charged vehicle? Will it have other slightly freaky options, like a fast-charging supercharger trailer that drives up behind you, locks in, and charges you while you are still driving? Who knows, but there are many options. Automation opens up the idea of the quick car swap, without the passengers even thinking about where the car re-charges. It's just another option in dealing with 'range anxiety'. My guess is it will not be long before battery evolution just throws all today's old 'limits' out the window and give you a full 1000km trip before needing another charge!
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 07:22:40

Musk has proven to be an overpromise and underdeliver guy. I don't think most are buying his boasts anymore. Luckily there are several players working on autonomy so it all doesn't sink or swim with him.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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